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Raluca
19 Mar 13 19:22
Joined:
Date Joined: 03 Jul 07
| Topic/replies: 9,911 | Blogger: Raluca's blog
Probably was discussed before but it never gets old
I read everyday how "traders" here bet 100 on 1.05 and they are happy,probably only the small fishes post on forum the sharks swim in other oceans
Pause Switch to Standard View How do you win money here?
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Report themover March 19, 2013 6:29 PM GMT
not sure I agree with that, suppose it depends what you call a big bet to be called a shark? Silly
Report Raluca March 19, 2013 6:31 PM GMT
I personally lay low odds (under 1.2) and back big odds over 5
Seems to me this is the only way to happines here
Why?!Because you can lose 7-8 bets in row and with a low lay that comes in you can still be in profit
Report smithy91 March 19, 2013 6:32 PM GMT
kenilworth is the best person to ask on football forumLaugh
Report kenilworth March 19, 2013 6:34 PM GMT
Bet against the market.
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:35 PM GMT
I think you will find their are many different approaches Raluca, some good ones and some bad ones.
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:35 PM GMT
*there
*they're

ffs I hate spelling that wrong Cry
Report kenilworth March 19, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
mover, only the good ones win money, don't you think?
Report smithy91 March 19, 2013 6:36 PM GMT
Laugh
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:37 PM GMT
not really kenilworth I have some really good losing bets regularly CoolLaugh
Report kenilworth March 19, 2013 6:38 PM GMT
..but you don't win money with them.
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:40 PM GMT
it's the taking part that counts Tongue Out
Report CJ70 March 19, 2013 6:42 PM GMT
Can I be the first to say 'Lay Liverpool'?

*Tin helmet on*
Report scaredmoney March 19, 2013 6:44 PM GMT
backing against milan12 after he's been on a good run would seem to be a good avenue to go down
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:45 PM GMT
I like backing wrong prices, or should I say what are wrong in my opinion, laying Liverpool is a good example. Tonights example is Yeovil at 3.15, surely they should be favorites? Silly
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:47 PM GMT
and my back of Rayo to beat Barcelona at 29/1 was a good bet and I won't have anyone tell me otherwise Cry
Report Raluca March 19, 2013 6:48 PM GMT
why risk to lay a odds of 3.15?!
the liability is to high and chances are against you
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:49 PM GMT
I'm backing Yeovil not laying it
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:52 PM GMT
2 draws in last 10 fixtures between the two clubs so wouldn't mind laying the draw at 3.5 though
Report Raluca March 19, 2013 6:56 PM GMT
can't you see that bookmakers hope "you" see this?
Report Raluca March 19, 2013 6:57 PM GMT
the only thing they can't predict is how a team is playing in that moment
Report themover March 19, 2013 6:58 PM GMT
what have bookamakers got to do with it, I'm pricing it up as I see it
Report Chief_Inspector_Wiggum March 19, 2013 7:04 PM GMT
lay the tractors Happy
Report IC March 19, 2013 7:04 PM GMT
I'm sure 1.01 under 6.5 layers do well. Half the time when I lose money its because a goal happened as I back unders and I don't notice because some people's bets don't get cleared. Work out how to do that ;)
Report Coachbuster March 19, 2013 7:07 PM GMT
Wiggum returns Shocked
Report IC March 19, 2013 7:19 PM GMT
My
Report IC March 19, 2013 7:22 PM GMT
under 6.5 just got smashed on that dutch game. Backed it at 1.03 at what I thought was 1-0. It turned out the 2nd goal had just happened (hadn't shown for me yet) and there was money in the market indicating nothing had changed. ~8 seconds later (when normal punters got past the betting delay) the price shot up to a more realistic 1.09ish, and I redded out.

So there you go, both things I was talking about in 1 example, laying unders at tiny prices and magically being able to put prices up half a second following an unsuspend for a goal.
Report IC March 19, 2013 7:24 PM GMT
Can't lose with an unbeatable system like that. Another highly respected strategy is hoovering spanish football matches and tennis, top drawer stuff. I'd rather have naff all liquidity and 30 second betting delay than leak money to these parasites.

(rant over)
Report Arai March 19, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
IC, having the software to get round the 8 seconds seems the way to go then ......
Report loui March 19, 2013 7:30 PM GMT
yeovil v swindon will be a draw imo,its due,and it looks like a high draw possibility match
Report Zeze22 March 19, 2013 7:34 PM GMT
Some tip on how to win money:

1. Stick to certain leagues (and only bet on them if you know roughly what happens in most games, i.e are the teams high scorers or low scorers, when do they usually score, league positions and motivations etc.) Soon enough you'll probably know what's expected in most leagues.

2. NEVER use your full bank like a gom. Have a strategy and stick to it.

3. NEVER bet on emotions or because you love/hate a team.

4. Some may disagree with this but: Use stats to your advantage. They are the only reason I'm here.Love
Report The Bhoys March 19, 2013 7:38 PM GMT
back nadal, barca and messi to score. lay murray Wink
Report IC March 19, 2013 7:39 PM GMT
I don't know what the story is Arai. But its a common occurrance. The market suspends for a goal, bets are "cleared" and then you immediately see prices appear for backing 'unders' that are the same price as prior to the goal. In my example today I'm backing under 6.5 at 1.03 which was the price reflecting 1 goal having being scored but I'm actually being decieved because a second goal has gone in. Then a few seconds later the normal bets fly in and the price of backing unders shoots up to 1.09/1.1.

This always happens to benefit unders layers and if you aren't religiously checking the next applicable market (like checking under 1.5 to see if its suspended in a game you think is 1-0, to make sure a second hasn't been scored) then you can be decieved. I guess its the price to pay for getting liquidity in random under 6.5 markets? I'm not sure its a software thing, I just don't know though.
Report themover March 19, 2013 7:42 PM GMT
they are keep bets that remain in the market after the suspension
Report Trigger_66 March 19, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
Do I Not Like Orange.Slightly burnt by Jong- and Jong also Redded out.
Report IC March 19, 2013 7:43 PM GMT
I don't understand how u can have a keep bet in an in-play football game following a goal? Maybe I'm being obtuse here and I'm about to learn something. I hope so!
Report themover March 19, 2013 7:44 PM GMT
they are bets placed before the suspension as a "keep" bet
Report IC March 19, 2013 7:54 PM GMT
Well its news to me that you could do that with in-play football. I was only aware of being able to do "keep" bets pre-KO which would remain after the match went in-play. I'm struggling to find where to specify a keep bet when placing an in-play football bet. Any chance of discussing it in PM?

Thats another part of winning on here, knowing the system inside out.

I also think the laying at 1.01 if you can stomach it is a decent way to start. Most of my profit comes from very Betfair specific stuff (like trading) and I'm trying to branch out into more "generic" betting styles. I find that much harder though since its not taking advantage of Betfair's features.
Report Arai March 19, 2013 11:21 PM GMT
There is so much "additional" functionality via API that unless using geeks toy etc is your route, trading on betfair using the basic interface is a very amateur approach.
Report IC March 20, 2013 2:07 AM GMT
Personally I've never been very easy with logging into Betfair through 3rd party software. Perhaps I should bite the bullet at some point. I was just curious if using the api would let you place a keep bet during in-play? The only keep bet you can do in the normal (old) site is a pre KO-bet afaik. Perhaps someone was just fortunate to put in a pre-KO keep bet of 1.03 on under 6.5 and that was the price the market had dropped to just as the goal went in.
Report themover March 20, 2013 2:31 AM GMT
via API you can put in a keep bet with various software packages
Report Greg_Gory March 20, 2013 10:26 AM GMT
gruss £6 a month
Report Greg_Gory March 20, 2013 10:27 AM GMT
with 1 months free trial
Report Daveyboymoyes March 20, 2013 10:31 AM GMT
Greg Gruss Gory

Does Gruss pick and place all bets for you? Laugh

Geeks Toy does the same job so you may as well promote that as well, however if you can't win on the normal exchange you probably won't suddenly start winning because of these
Report dizzydavid1 March 20, 2013 10:51 AM GMT
The Mover: "2 draws in last 10 fixtures between the two clubs so wouldn't mind laying the draw at 3.5 though"

Well done on your win if you laid the draw but.....Why would the results of games from 4,5,6,7 years ago between entirely (or possibly almost entirely in some cases) different sets of players have any bearing on the likelihood of the game being a draw last night?
Report Greg_Gory March 20, 2013 11:30 AM GMT
Daveyboymoyes     20 Mar 13 10:31 
Greg Gruss Gory

Does Gruss pick and place all bets for you?



Does Geeks Toy?  If so i'll change Laugh
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