Estudiantes - Any thoughts ?

What do you think the longest run of games under 2.5 there has been in the PL? Surely no more than 20 games?

I do actually bet on football (not just for fun), but I only do AH, nothing else

Dec 4, 2012 -- 2:00AM, wisewords wrote:

What do you think the longest run of games under 2.5 there has been in the PL? Surely no more than 20 games?

no idea, but I doubt it is more than 15

my theory wouldn't work as games kick off at the same time.

but if you bet on them all at over 2.5.. increasing stakes each match.. with a big enough bank surely you can't lose?

same with anything, if you keep increasing stakes, you cannot lose...........but do you have an infinite bank?

48% are unders, 52% are overs - that is red or black

it's crazy though.. it's like betting £20,000 to win £2

one of the reasons casinos put limits in place, to stop people doing martingale

Dec 4, 2012 -- 2:05AM, themover wrote:

48% are unders, 52% are overs - that is red or black

1% chance of 15 games under 2.5 goals then.

yep, it's not worth it, because you are only ever winning your initial stake, which is miniscule

martingale can work great short term for you. especially if you are shrewd with your choices and don't think martingale is a full proof method..

fool*

Dec 4, 2012 -- 2:04AM, wisewords wrote:

but if you bet on them all at over 2.5.. increasing stakes each match.. with a big enough bank surely you can't lose?

That sounds all too much like Martingaling. Don't even go there.

I think Martingaling can work short term if you bet shrewdly with decreasing frequency.. I guess I'm just naiive to this game

Martingaling can go wrong at any time. First time you try it you could get a run of 15 blacks while you're backing red.

What do you think of this system... you have a bank of say circa 15k

your aim is to win 4 lays of prices 1.8-2ish in a row. you deposit £10 at a time. four successful lays pay out ~£150

Martingale doesn't work FACT. If it did we would all be in clover

because of the vast array of soccer games.. you bet very shrewdly and only on trades you are most confident about

you focus on laying the weak away team when they take the lead in the 1st half

i think this strategy can work long term.. someone convince me otherwise..

all you need is the game to be a draw/home win for your bet to win. and the home team are expected to win anyway

example of this today was CSS Turnu Severin taking the lead in Romania.. although the prices wasn't right there
StandingsRUSSIA: Premier Leag

i think it's doomed :)

I'm with bkk :)

Dec 4, 2012 -- 2:11AM, wisewords wrote:

i think this strategy can work long term.. someone convince me otherwise..

It all depends on the price. With a correct staking strategy and proper bank roll management, the only way to win long term is when the price is in your favour.

really? it's laying... you need 2 runs out of 15 to be profitable each time..

also, you're betting slowly and are picky with your choices..

i think bet frequency must affect something..?

you wait for the opening to present itsef to you almost.. like when MG went 1-2 down against Cruz on Sunday

the weaker team will give up the win the majority of the time.. i fail to see how it fails with the necessary patience

Real Sociedad 5.4, Swansea 6.1, Ipswich 4.6, Vitesse 7.0, Evian 4.8, Servette 5.4, Bristol City 4.8, Clyde 4.8, Inverness 9.1, Stormogels 5.7, Wycombe 5.4, Exeter 4.8, Cruzeiro 4.6, Hercules 4.8, Rennes 6.5, Ebbsfleet 4.6, Almere 5.7

Some examples of underdogs this week winning away from home. Not all will have been leading at half time, I dont have those stats to hand and it's too late to do them

those prices were pre-match prices

Or just do asian handicap bets on underdogs............this is how I do it :)   Hint: Fortuna Dusseldorf away from home :)

That's scary that I trawlled most of those games this weekend

when you are betting on 12x, there is too much vig to overcome, stick to AH

i think you'll find Servette were at home and drew 0-0 though.

yes sorry that was the Servette at Zurich match on the 24/11 (0-2)

Cruz didn't win either. They lost 3-2

to MG.

Rennes never lead, and were favourite against Troyes so that doesn't fit either.

Cruz at Fluminese on 18/11 (0-2) sorry my dates are all over the place!

Rennes was at PSG (1-2)

the away team has to be the smaller team, has to be leading at HT.

if it gets levelled in the 2nd half, you can trade out at big prices

lay 1.9, back 27 for example.

it's a pretty good system honestly.

yes, I'm not sure if they were leading at half-time, I dont have stats for that without staying up too late. I will try and do some tomorrow though for the interest :)

it's main flaw is it requires patience and is time consuming

you could lay Cruzeiro at 1.8 when they went 2-1 up early in the 2nd half. when MG equalised their price crashed to 10s

how do you know if the price you are laying at is a good price or not?

Exactly.

when CSMS were 1-0 up today, there a similar price..........and won 3-0

yeah, look in the topic for my post. it went something like 'can't bring myself to lay Iasi, galeti too wasteful.. off out for a run'

i watched roughly 8 mins of the 2nd half and came to that conclusion. came home to see 0-3 FT

try this system wisewords: Away team odds on favourite  -  back home team (+1) on AH, and "away team to win by exactly 1 goal", and perhaps some small bets on 0-2, 0-3 etc.........it's interesting :)

Dec 4, 2012 -- 2:26AM, themover wrote:

how do you know if the price you are laying at is a good price or not?

motivation. MG needed to win to get 2nd place. Cruzeirio had nothing to play for.

so if they had been 20/1 to lay you would have layed them?

no!! price has to be no more than low 2's

so Iasi weren't really eligible but I thought I'd have a look

you can't make money from laying rubbish prices!

i guess my system relies on my football instinct too

but if you are generalising on it has to be low 2's surely some will be good value and some won't be? Not having a go because I don't know myself how to price them up just wondering.

yeah you don't take everyone on offer! you have patience and only take ones you think have a chance of winning based on motivation in football, form, performance on the day (watch the stream)

of course I know away teams can win matches.. so I must be picky and only lay the mugs :)

and hope i can do this 4 times in a row out of 15 runs.

and because i'm being so picky, 1 run may take between 2 days a week.

2 days and a week*

why shouldn't we be picky? we want to win afterall..

not sure if this bet frequency thing is something i've manifested in my head though.. i don't know if it gives me a real edge or not?

from a sh*tty thread about a boring late night south american game, we have made over 360 posts in total :)  Time for bed, thanks for the chat, goodnight people

night bkk

why would the frequency give an edge?

night bbk

because you are being more selective and only picking the real value in your eyes..

rather than just laying the first thing that fits your criteria.. you almost have to BELIEVE it will happen cast iron fact

I guess the way you are doing it limits the number as you have to have an underdog leading at half-time

well, anytime up to 55 mins really, if the price is right

initially when the underdog takes the lead, their prices doesn't budge much.. but it soon comes down after leading for a bit

so say on a Saturday PL afternoon, presumably you can't be watching all the matches so you are limiting your bets to a couple and that is if the underdog in the ones you are watching lead at HT?

hard to do it when there's LOADS of games. but if you spot an opportunity, get the stream up!

yes but you've missed half the match. Not sure I could decide on an in-running bet without having watched it but that's just me.

some just come off knowing what the most likely outcome will be from a prematch perspective. for example, when cruz took the lead against MG i knew MG needed a win to try clinch 2nd place. cruz had nothing to play for!

Dec 4, 2012 -- 2:45AM, themover wrote:

yes but you've missed half the match. Not sure I could decide on an in-running bet without having watched it but that's just me.

like i say i whack the stream on and try to form an opinion

the stats are already in my favour.. if i like what i'm seeing i stick with it

away minnows surrender leads.. it's just what happens

the game might end up being a draw.. all i need is the equaliser.. there's still loads of time to play

well if it works keep going I say

stats are your friend.. away teams surrender leads.. away teams lose games.. remember this my friend.

oh I love stats but I do pre-match bets and let them ride

also, if you minnow takes the lead at home it can work too.. but more risk involved..

if the minnow*

siena and catania both 1-0 at HT. both lost 1-3

catania i layed. siena i almost did but bottled it like an idiot

so from now on, STRONG CONVICTIONS

right, off to watch some basketball. good luck in your bets!

good luck

saw these in 1968 in the world club championships,still have not seen a side as dirty.