Football
Newcastle are long odds on to finish Top 8 in my book , may do a lot better than that . West Ham will do well to stay up.
Was expecting about 1.65 tbh
Nov 11, 2012 -- 2:17AM, CJ70 wrote:
Excellent odds. Wouldn't back them.
you'll lay?
No but are value at 2.04, should be around 1.8 on current form, last leg of a treble for me so no need to get involved though 3-0 at around 26 seems tempting.
Nice treble of 25/1
Man City Draw vs Spurs (Spuds looking good and City have a clueless manager in charge)
Chelsea Win vs Liverpool (Chelsea should be too strong)
Newcastle Draw vs West ham (Draw best bet IMO)
Tiote is a big miss in midfield as well.
I am a Newcastle supporter but have layed them today for a decent amount.
Its all about opinions tho!
Williamson?
Taylor?
Colocini?
but I will be surprised if WHUFC can take anything from SJP. We got battered away at Wigan and Swansea already this season and I expect Newcastle to win
Both teams to Score @ 1.67
Nolan to score at anytime @ 4
perch to get a card @ 3.05
Good luck all :)
everything you said really, everyone is entitled to there opinion but yours on colochini is so wrong its criminal! he was awsome for us last season and has been great so far this season! I was at st james Park a couple of weeks ago and he really is a great player..he reads the game so well, i would go as far as to say he would prob get a game for 90% of the teams in the prem including a couplke of the top four!
I think you misunderstand what Ouspenski said, party. He said that not having Coloccini play is a disaster for Newcastle, so in effect, agreeing with you.
I meant want I said party. No Colocini is a disaster for Newcastle
does the above not say colochini is a disaster?
I may not be the brightest but i know some stuff about football.
Now im not going to be so juvinile as to call you names but the following comment is a fact!
Ouspenski you know fcuk all about newcastle or football in general and still you post your comments.
CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11
Add contact | Send message When: 11 Nov 12 02:35 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,470 | Blogger: CJ70's blog
No. I'd be a backer if I chose to be involved. Not going to be around when the game goes around and I wouldn't back them on the outright without the ability to change positions.
The inanity just doesn't stop with CJ.
haha oops sorry!
I meant want I said party. No Colocini (relating to his absence today) is a disaster for Newcastle
Perhaps then you will realise that it is you who has misinterpreted! He backs the statement up by suggesting that Williamson is not an adequate replacement.
I dont think anyone with half a brain could not understand what I said to be honest but I'll try my best to make it EVEN easier for you:
No Colloccini is a disater for Newcastle. That means him not playing is a disaster. Understand so far? Good. That means I think hes class and its a disaster hes not playing. I want him playing cos hes class.
Now, surely you understand that.
I dont mind having an argument on here cos its all about opinions but its a bit frustrating having someone argue with me when they actually agree with me, theyre just too thick to know it!!
Nov 11, 2012 -- 11:55AM, Rowan86 wrote:
CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 Add contact | Send message When: 11 Nov 12 02:35 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,470 | Blogger: CJ70's blog No. I'd be a backer if I chose to be involved. Not going to be around when the game goes around and I wouldn't back them on the outright without the ability to change positions. The inanity just doesn't stop with CJ.
Your usual pleasant self I see, Rowan.
Last week;
"Liverpool are far too short at 1.6, but I'm going to back them because the price might shorten so I can green up."
Cheers for that. I enjoyed the 1.6. By the way, a better approach would have been to wait to see if the price shortened and just lay Liverpool if it did. If 1.6 was too short , then it's actually mathematically impossible for there to be more value in the attempted trade than the lay at a shorter price, because obviously the lay at a shorter price would be the same as the trade, but without the poor value back at 1.6.
This week;
"Newcastle are an excellent price, but I'm going to pass because I won't be able to change positions in-running."
Cheers for that too. It's partly thanks to people like you that I've been able to get on Newcastle at 2.06.
I've given up trying to explain to you how an exchange works. You'd rather struggle to eat soup with a fork than learn how to use a spoon.
Good luck to you.
How exchanges work? You need to stop waffling about how exchanges work and consider what you're doing on a fundamental level.
Like last week, you backed Liverpool at what you thought was a bad price hoping the price would shorten so you could green-out.
It's a mathematical fact that long-term, someone that repeatedly waits to see if the price will shorten and then lay is likely to do better than someone that repeatedly makes a poor value bet and then hopes to lay at a shorter price.
I'm more than happy to provide the mathematical proof of that, but hey, you're too pig-headed for that.
You are mathematically wrong in your approach. I can prove that whilst you waffle on about "how exchanges work".
side any shorter than 1.90, which meant no bet
for me.
Date Joined: 05 Apr 05
11 Nov 12 08:46 Joined: 05 Apr 05
I am happy to lay Newcastle at evens here, take as much as you like.
Easy
Fans will be starting to think Pardew might be looking for his multi million pound payout already?
wonder how Blackburn fans feel?
Nov 11, 2012 -- 5:02PM, Mr.Angry wrote:
Most fans know effall about football.
By: kenilworth Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
Add contact | Send message When: 11 Nov 12 16:26 Joined: Date Joined: 04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 10,156 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
1/1 was a good price, but I didn't have the home
side any shorter than 1.90, which meant no bet
for me.
Sensible. Good to give yourself a margin of error.
kenilworth 11 Nov 12 17:04 Joined: 04 Nov 05 | Topic/replies: 10,156 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
He's too ugly.
I'm sure you're an oil painting.
considered for the England job.
Nov 11, 2012 -- 5:19PM, Rowan86 wrote:
lol Meadway. I don't see how he was a mug. Newcastle had an off day today. Evens wasn't bad at all imo.
Lol because of his little right up, that's why. West ham to do well to stay up?
Was a home win really as likely as both draw and away win put together there? Clearly not.
Any people saying 1.65 is value...you could play that game 5 times and you'd still be making a loss if Newcastle won 3 of them.
Nov 11, 2012 -- 12:53PM, Rowan86 wrote:
I am if I can find better prices. I haven't seen these priority prices. I'll believe it when I see them.You are mathematically wrong in your approach. I can prove that whilst you waffle on about "how exchanges work".
You don't understand what an exchange does and so you just punt on who you think will win.
The difference between us is that if we both had a strong belief that Newcastle would be winning after 30 mins. I'd play it and you'd complain that Betfair didn't have a market up.
As I say good luck to you in what you do, but you'd be better off learning how exchange betting works.
Nov 11, 2012 -- 5:04PM, kenilworth wrote:
He's too ugly.
that's why Harry Redknapp didn't get the job.
Add contact | Send message When: 11 Nov 12 20:43 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,476 | Blogger: CJ70's blog
Nov 11, 2012 -- 12:53PM, Rowan86 wrote:
I am if I can find better prices. I haven't seen these priority prices. I'll believe it when I see them.You are mathematically wrong in your approach. I can prove that whilst you waffle on about "how exchanges work".
You don't understand what an exchange does and so you just punt on who you think will win.
The difference between us is that if we both had a strong belief that Newcastle would be winning after 30 mins. I'd play it and you'd complain that Betfair didn't have a market up.[/quote]
No, the difference is that you wouldn't care about the value of the bets you made pre kick-off and at 30 mins, because you'd fixated on the idea that you're just making a bet on the first 30 mins of the game.
You'd be like right, I'll make my pre kick-off back of Newcastle. Who cares if it's a bad value bet? I'm going to lay-off after 30 mins if they're ahead.
If the price pre-kick off is poor value, then it's mathematically impossible for there to be more value in the trade over the 30 mins than there would be from simply waiting for newcastle to score and then laying them. I'm more than happy to write a proof of that.
If the price pre-kick off is poor value, then it's mathematically impossible for there to be more value in the trade over the 30 mins than there would be from simply waiting to see if Newcastle are ahead after 30 mins and laying them.
If this scenario repeated itself every weekend for a large number of weeks, the trader probably does worse than someone that just lays Newcastle if they're ahead after 30 mins, assuming the pre kick-off price is always poor, irrespective of how likely it is that Newcastle are going to be ahead after 30 mins.
Spot of after timing but his style isn't suited to our game
Nov 11, 2012 -- 11:55PM, Rowan86 wrote:
I'm pleased you've found some kind of explanation for that disaster. I feel sick about it.
Did you overstake Rowan? 
Nov 11, 2012 -- 11:59PM, Rowan86 wrote:
I stake small on each event. It doesn't make sense to bet a lot each time. I feel a lot more sick as a Newcastle fan than I do about the loss of money.
Ok I didn't know you were a Newcastle fan. Very poor result for you lot. Like Spurs losing to Wigan at home.
Yeah, extra kick in the teeth losing to ex players and an ex manager. Did you go to Brugge Donny? I went to Brugge without a ticket and Liverpool away on Sun.
Nov 11, 2012 -- 10:55PM, Rowan86 wrote:
[CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 Add contact | Send message When: 11 Nov 12 20:43 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,476 | Blogger: CJ70's blog Nov 11, 2012 -- 12:53PM, Rowan86 wrote:I am if I can find better prices. I haven't seen these priority prices. I'll believe it when I see them.You are mathematically wrong in your approach. I can prove that whilst you waffle on about "how exchanges work".You don't understand what an exchange does and so you just punt on who you think will win.The difference between us is that if we both had a strong belief that Newcastle would be winning after 30 mins. I'd play it and you'd complain that Betfair didn't have a market up.
No, the difference is that you wouldn't care about the value of the bets you made pre kick-off and at 30 mins, because you'd fixated on the idea that you're just making a bet on the first 30 mins of the game.You'd be like right, I'll make my pre kick-off back of Newcastle. Who cares if it's a bad value bet? I'm going to lay-off after 30 mins if they're ahead.If the price pre-kick off is poor value, then it's mathematically impossible for there to be more value in the trade over the 30 mins than there would be from simply waiting for newcastle to score and then laying them. I'm more than happy to write a proof of that.
I'm really shocked at how little you understand on this.
There's a Russian second division game that I'll be betting on this afternoon. I think the game will go overs but I'll be backing unders. Sheer madness eh?
competition is a bit of a joke with teams made up of mainly reserve players, still
a few days in brugges can be fun without any football, and it was great of them to
see sense when newcastle mp got involved and open up a few more terraces to our fans
and stick up a big screen in town.
I'm really shocked at how little you understand on this.
There's a Russian second division game that I'll be betting on this afternoon. I think the game will go overs but I'll be backing unders. Sheer madness eh?
It's not about whether you think the game's going to go overs, it's about whether you think backing unders is good value.
It was obviously madness if you thought unders was bad value and backed it.
i suppose you'll always get some nutters attracted into it, still plenty of bother if you know where to look
West Ham i'll be amazed if they finish above Newcastle , hardly played anyone decent yet
Nov 12, 2012 -- 10:31PM, Rowan86 wrote:
I'm really shocked at how little you understand on this. There's a Russian second division game that I'll be betting on this afternoon. I think the game will go overs but I'll be backing unders. Sheer madness eh?It's not about whether you think the game's going to go overs, it's about whether you think backing unders is good value.It was obviously madness if you thought unders was bad value and backed it.
I thought we might have an epiphany then. Not to be.
Nov 12, 2012 -- 10:48PM, Rowan86 wrote:
Can you explain what you were doing on that Russian game? I'll tell you if it was madness.
Don't worry I'll save you the bother. I was **** myself for overstaking and greening out for the sake of it.
Nov 12, 2012 -- 11:04PM, CJ70 wrote:
Nov 12, 2012 -- 10:48PM, Rowan86 wrote:Can you explain what you were doing on that Russian game? I'll tell you if it was madness.Don't worry I'll save you the bother. I was **** myself for overstaking and greening out for the sake of it.
