Who's backing Liverpool at 1.59 v Newcastle? (Sunday)

donny osmond Date Joined: 02 Mar 08
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there is a good thread on general betting


lots of good trades to be had by taking bad prices

They probably would have done better without the bad prices unsurprisingly.

It's worth following donny's advice and having a look at that general betting thread. The lads there explain things over 80 pages.

In CJ's world, we're all winners at Betfair.

He backs a price that he thinks is sh*t, thereby giving people value, and he's okay because he wasn't backing on the outcome, he was backing a price movement.

Not all of us Rowan

Can you back some more of my 1.6 lay please CJ?

Don't worry that 1.6 is a sh*t price. It doesn't matter to you because you're not betting on the outcome.

Are you backing Liverpool at 1.6 this week then?

If you don't understand how the exchange works, repeating the same thing over and over again will generally lead people to think you're a bit silly.

from the General Betting thread :

smithy91 • November 2, 2012 11:02 PM GMT
yeah laying stoke at 2.96 looks a great shout to ! as for Liverpool I cant trade their price in  home games unless against the big six as there price opens up to short already. good luck to anyone backing them at 1.6 they will be in for a stressful afternoon against newcastle

Pool v Newc tends to be an unpredictable game at the best of times , why anchor yourself with a poor price on a poor team , leave it alone is my advice

Forced to play i would lay the draw and make a quick buck after the first goal , thats just me tho

I have to admit I read that and had a little panic. I was on Newcastle in the reverse fixture last year and they came in heavily just before KO, the same with the last few fixtures. Here's hoping..

Nov 3, 2012 -- 2:54AM, hello :-) wrote:

Pool v Newc tends to be an unpredictable game at the best of times , why anchor yourself with a poor price on a poor team , leave it alone is my advice Forced to play i would lay the draw and make a quick buck after the first goal , thats just me tho

Sound advice. Not every trade will go right so why put in a poor value bet in the first place.

CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11
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Are you backing Liverpool at 1.6 this week then?

I'm laying it. It's a sh*t price.

Nov 3, 2012 -- 3:27AM, Rowan86 wrote:

CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 Add contact | Send message When: 03 Nov 12 01:46 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,267 | Blogger: CJ70's blog Are you backing Liverpool at 1.6 this week then?I'm laying it. It's a sh*t price.

Why have you been asking me to lay you it then?

Have you put your lay bet in?

I'm asking you to back it, so that you match my lay.

By your logic CJ, you can give me value without any adverse effect to you.

Back my 1.6 lay (1.6 is a bad price in your opinion) and it doesn't matter to you because you're not betting on the outcome.

Nearly 200 posts about the betting in a match between
two mid table sides with no chance of troubling the
top  three sides in the league seems incredible.

I think it's quite interesting.

CJ has given an opinion on the price based on the outcome at full-time, i.e. he thinks the price is poor.

However, he also anticipates that a poor value price will get even worse nearer to kick-off. Therefore, he has decided to trade this movement.

Rowan wants to lay the price, as he also thinks it is a poor price, so a value lay. But if CJ is right, then Rowan will get an even better value lay nearer to kick off.

I'm going for a lay down; this is not betting related.

Kenilworth

Let me spell it out for you because it seems too tough for your brain to comprehend

THIS thres is a betting thred on a betting site about the value of a certain bet "get it"

The teams involved are not importand because in case you didn't know 1.6 about any tema is the same as 1.6 about Man Utd / Man City or Chelsea

What the fukk has league position got to do with anything you mug or are you one of these elitist" so called fans " of a top 3 team who thinks even discussing any other side is "incredible"

Get down off your virtual high horse you arrogant pillock and understand what tyhis thred is about

HTH

Wow, to many spelling mistakes to excuse, big fingers I guess

ken,,, elitist fan,,, he'll love that

Was I wrong

He seems to be unable to understand the thred so I thought I would help the poor lad

What a tiit

Rowan wants to lay the price, as he also thinks it is a poor price, so a value lay. But if CJ is right, then Rowan will get an even better value lay nearer to kick off.

Even if someone knew it was 100% certain that a price was going to move from say 1.6 to 1.5 and they thought 1.6 was poor value, the optimum approach on the basis of their opinion would be to wait for the swing and lay at 1.5. A trader would guarantee themselves a profit, but the person that just lays the 1.5 is doing a better job of exploiting the opportunity, whereas the trader is making a poor value bet and a good value bet on the basis that 1.6 is poor value. Besides, you could never be 100% certain, but even if you were, it wouldn't necessarily be the right option to trade the swing, because the same opportunity might never appear again.

It's similar to getting a free bet from a bookies. You could back something using the free bet and then lay it at Betfair to guarantee a profit, but that's not necessarilly the optimum approach. If you think the lay at Betfair is poor value, you may as well just make a bet with the free bet, because you're not necessarily going to keep seeing free bet offers for the rest of your life.

cant agree there rowan, if its 1.6 today and guaranteed 1.5 tomorrow i'm emptying my account backing 1.6

Well, okay that's true I suppose, because I'm forgetting that you could stake an infinite amount of money on the trade. However, if there was a staking limit, then the optimum approach would be to wait for the 1.5 and lay it.

I was going to say the optimum approach would be to keep trading if you knew 100% guaranteed price swings were going to keep appearing till the end of time, but you could create the same effect by staking infinite money on the trade.

1.59

I thought this thread had been bumped from 20 years ago

Actually, to make it fair, let's say the staking limit is about double your average stake. You're never going to see a guaranteed price swing anyway, but I'm making the point that you should never make bets that you think are bad value even in a case where you're really confident that a price is going to move so that you can green up.

Rowan86

You're never going to see a guaranteed price swing anyway

That's true, but you can't guarantee a value price either. You make your play based on your opinion in either case.

The Dza. I completely agree, but this was based on the hypothesis that 1.6 is poor value. On that basis, there was no justification for backing it.

EdwardWoowardWould Joined: 18 May 12
Replies: 965 03 Nov 12 09:40   


Kenilworth

Let me spell it out for you because it seems too tough for your brain to comprehend

THIS thres is a betting thred on a betting site about the value of a certain bet "get it"

The teams involved are not importand because in case you didn't know 1.6 about any tema is the same as 1.6 about Man Utd / Man City or Chelsea

What the fukk has league position got to do with anything you mug or are you one of these elitist" so called fans " of a top 3 team who thinks even discussing any other side is "incredible"

Get down off your virtual high horse you arrogant pillock and understand what tyhis thred is about

HTH

Sort of reply I would expect from an uneducated 18 yearold who
has just discovered football and thinks he has found something
new, been on here 6 months, and knows the lot, including all
the expletives he can think off. Everything on this thread has
been done to death before, mainly before you left school. Hope
that helps, maybe at least spelling and grammar. GL, you will
certainly need it.

I'm not going to quote your replies as you were getting rather silly in some of them, Rowan.

All I'd say is that you should be beginning to understand how an exchange works by noww. You said yourself you used the exchange for better prices, I'm hoping you start to realise that the better prices are related to the market and not the outcome.

I think you gave yourself away when you complained that a 'trade' in your eyes should be 100% guaranteed. What you describe as a trade because you've "**** yourself and overstaked" is a bet in its own right. You won't see it as anything else other than a lay of Liverpool which you don't agree with.

Good luck to you in the game.

Nov 3, 2012 -- 2:36PM, kenilworth wrote:

EdwardWoowardWould Joined: 18 May 12Replies: 965 03 Nov 12 09:40    KenilworthLet me spell it out for you because it seems too tough for your brain to comprehendTHIS thres is a betting thred on a betting site about the value of a certain bet "get it"The teams involved are not importand because in case you didn't know 1.6 about any tema is the same as 1.6 about Man Utd / Man City or ChelseaWhat the fukk has league position got to do with anything you mug or are you one of these elitist" so called fans " of a top 3 team who thinks even discussing any other side is "incredible"Get down off your virtual high horse you arrogant pillock and understand what tyhis thred is about HTH  Sort of reply I would expect from an uneducated 18 yearold who has just discovered football and thinks he has found something new, been on here 6 months, and knows the lot, including all the expletives he can think off. Everything on this thread has been done to death before, mainly before you left school. Hope that helps, maybe at least spelling and grammar. GL, you will certainly need it.

Spot on kenilworth.   Don't waste your time with this cretin (EdwardWoowardWould).  The "block user" button is your friend here.

CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11
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I think you gave yourself away when you complained that a 'trade' in your eyes should be 100% guaranteed.

I didn't say that at all. I don't understand how you could possibly interpret what I said that way.

You've backed Liverpool to win the match at 1.6 despite saying that price was poor. That's as inane as it gets I'm afriad.

Nov 4, 2012 -- 1:12AM, Rowan86 wrote:

CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 Add contact | Send message When: 03 Nov 12 23:32 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,270 | Blogger: CJ70's blog I think you gave yourself away when you complained that a 'trade' in your eyes should be 100% guaranteed.I didn't say that at all. I don't understand how you could possibly interpret what I said that way. You've backed Liverpool to win the match at 1.6 despite saying that price was poor. That's as inane as it gets I'm afriad.

I really don't know what to say to you if after being told time after time that the outcome plays no part in my bet you still think I'm betting on Liverpool to win.

Learn how the exchange works and you'll get far more opportunities to make value judgments.

looks like the liverpool price is beginning to shift upwards, another couple of ticks will do splendidly

Money coming in for Newcastle is pushing the Liverpool price up. Need the Liverpool fans to start rolling out of the pubs.

should be 1.8+ so no suprise price moving upwards...i seriously would not back em at 2.0

anyone remember the last time Liverpool were a drifter at home?

Nov 4, 2012 -- 1:04PM, scaredmoney wrote:

anyone remember the last time Liverpool were a drifter at home?

Royal Engineers

Nov 4, 2012 -- 1:04PM, scaredmoney wrote:

anyone remember the last time Liverpool were a drifter at home?

No.

Lay Liverpoo... and then trade out.

I know they are different teams and all that, but think Liverpool vs United is a very even match up with Liverpool being unlucky not to win.  When it was United vs Newcastle it was no contest with United running riot.  So going on that then Liverpool price @ home isn't too far off.

Liverpool backers should wait till they reach evens for value,although they can score early at home so might not get that far.

present odds no value at all.

Watch for late goals by newcastle if liverpool are leading by 1 goal in second half.

As for the CJ - Rowan chat I think Darlo made the best post - if you don't think it's value at the current odds then you should lay to back, or not touch it.  Backing to lay a bad value bet is not a smart trade.
But as far as predicting a market movement it won't matter too much if it's bad value and you won't lose too much if the market goes against you but lot's of money is coming in the right direction still which is what appears to be happening in this market.

Pool have to make that turn sometime and this could be the match. For some reason, Newcastle have been piss poor at Anfield in the past. Liverpool home win 2-1

the "turn" will come when lucas is back 100% fit.

Lucas the final piece of the jigsaw.

liverpool's defence looks suspect with enrique, wisdom, jones

ben arfa MOTM 9/1

Nov 4, 2012 -- 2:35PM, NoMortaL wrote:

Pool have to make that turn sometime and this could be the match. For some reason, Newcastle have been piss poor at Anfield in the past. Liverpool home win 2-1

I agree but I wouldn't want to be backing them short until that turn at least starts to genuinely appear.

liverpool t.s.b.h.  2.42

gerrard motm on his 600th game must have a decent chance

^^^ 8/1

Newcastle win, 1-3 c/s, and a Red...gl all

Where are these man of the match odds coming from?

Irrespective of past stats you can read into however much you want.  Newcastle have some real top quality players and play as a team. Liverpool have Gerrard & Suarez and that's it. Keep them quiet and Newcastle win the game, easier said than done I guess but the price on Newcastle is the best price I've seen in a long time imo.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/liverpool-v-newca...

done overs here with osasuna and sevilla later. 5 or 6 to one

Liverpool win.

A GOAL WOULD BE NICE

been coming

0-1 lol

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM Congrats Liverpool layers

Candy. Baby.

Mugpunter27 clearly more clued up than 65% of one eyed nostalgics that lurk on here but not at Anfield (admission too high or coach journey from South Coast too long?) Newcastle always odds on to finish top 10 this season, Liverpool never better than Evens.

still no value in backing liverpool to win at 3.75,i would want atleast 5.00,silly market odds.

Nov 4, 2012 -- 4:50PM, moneytrump wrote:

still no value in backing liverpool to win at 3.75,i would want atleast 5.00,silly market odds.

3.7 to win now. CRAZY.

Come on please god if your online keep it like this or more goals to newcastle




i love you god

wp sofaking

Nov 4, 2012 -- 5:52PM, Ibrahima Sonko wrote:

wp sofaking

cheers Ibra.

Liverpool home to Wigan next before the next big Liverpoo payout (obviously away to Chelsea next week to keep things ticking along). Anyone like to price Liverpool up home to Wigan? 1.3?

Nov 4, 2012 -- 5:58PM, themover wrote:

Liverpool home to Wigan next before the next big Liverpoo payout (obviously away to Chelsea next week to keep things ticking along). Anyone like to price Liverpool up home to Wigan? 1.3?

yeah, probably 1.4 or so.

Nov 4, 2012 -- 5:58PM, themover wrote:

Liverpool home to Wigan next before the next big Liverpoo payout (obviously away to Chelsea next week to keep things ticking along). Anyone like to price Liverpool up home to Wigan? 1.3?

Will be interesting to compare it to the price that Spurs were yesterday.

IMO

Home	.		Draw	Wigan		.
Liverpool	1.60		4.08	Wigan		7.7

I reckon they'll go shorter than that tobers. Bookies not yet finished with clearing out the Merseyside money

rather

Liverpool	1.60
Draw	4.1
Wigan	7.7

thats how i'd price it , but yes they will go shorter

ah ok, yes I'm with you now

Just checked some early prices :

BetVic go 1/2
Bwin 2/5
Laddies 4/11 (man lands on moon!)

I wouldn't back United @4/11 v Wigan, never mind Liverpool

Looks like those who thought 'pool were too
short were in the majority.

The first time Liverpool have drifted this season. I lost 5% of my stake on that bet, but I'd probably make the same bet on the next Liverpool home game.

You win some you lose some.

the dza
02 Nov 12 23:35
Joined:
06 Apr 05
| Topic/replies: 6,196 | Blogger: the dza's blog
I can see Liverpool having more of the play but Newcastle being more ruthless with their chances.

Score draw.

I won £37million betting on this outcome. I do this most days, I'm thinking of buying Spurs a few players in January.

By: This user is online. CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11
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Nov 4, 2012 -- 1:12AM, Rowan86 wrote:

CJ70 Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 Add contact | Send message When: 03 Nov 12 23:32 Joined: Date Joined: 26 Nov 11 | Topic/replies: 4,270 | Blogger: CJ70's blog I think you gave yourself away when you complained that a 'trade' in your eyes should be 100% guaranteed.I didn't say that at all. I don't understand how you could possibly interpret what I said that way. You've backed Liverpool to win the match at 1.6 despite saying that price was poor. That's as inane as it gets I'm afriad.


I really don't know what to say to you if after being told time after time that the outcome plays no part in my bet you still think I'm betting on Liverpool to win.

Learn how the exchange works and you'll get far more opportunities to make value judgments.

The optimum approach was to wait for the price to shorten (if that happened) and then lay.

If 1.6 was a bad price, then it's impossible to get better value from a trade on the price shortening than you would get from simply laying the price once it's shortened, regardless of how confident you are that the price swing will occur.

Let's do a simulation.

You said 1.6 was too short, so for argument's sake, let's say the true price was 1.65. You probably thought the true price was a lot bigger, but I'm giving you more of a chance by saying it was only 1.65.

Let's say it's 99.9% likely that the price is going to move from 1.6 to 1.5.

Imagine this situation occurs every weekend till the end of time.

If you bet £100 that the price swing occurs every weekend, and I just wait to see if the swing occurs and lay 1.5 for a £100 liability if it does, then I'll probably make more money.

Imagine this goes on for 1000 weekends.

The trader is effectively backing the price swing to occur at 1.066, because that's what a 1.6-1.5 price swing equates to.

So if the price swing occurs 99.9% of the time, then

the trader will win 999*£100*0.066 =  £6593.40
and lose 1*£100 = £100

So the trader's profit is £6593.40 - £100 = £6493.40

We said the true price was 1.65, which means we expect the 1.5 lay to win 39.4% of the time.

The 1.5 layer makes 999 lays because the 1 time when the price swing doesn't occur, he/she doesn't bet.

We expect the layer to win 0.394*999 = 393 (rounded down) lays and lose 999-393 = 606.

So the layer wins £100*2*393 = £78600
and loses £100*606 = £60600

The layer's profit is £78600 - £60600 = £18,000.

The reason the layer does so much better than the trader is that the layer makes all the same bets as the trader apart from the bad value 1.6 backs.

Something I forgot is that the layer stakes more heavily on the 1.5 lay. The trader only lays 1.5 for a £53.33 liability to green up with equal green on both outcomes, so the 1.5 layer makes exploits more of the 1.5 lay value.

Done your b0ll0x on them again Rowan?

I layed Liverpool at 1.6 Scaredmoney.

One problem with my calculation is that the one time when the swing doesn't occur, the trader doesn't necessarily lose his/her £100 stake because Liverpool still have a 62.5% chance of winning, so that bet probably wins.

So the trader's expected profits are: £6593.40 +  (0.6 * £100) =  £6653.40

Another interesting simulation would be where the layer is staking exactly the same amount on the 1.5 lay as the trader, so that the layer's doing the same thing as the trader, but without the poor value 1.6 backs.

The layer's winnings are: £53.33*393*2 = £41,917.38
The layer's losses are: £53.33*606 = £32,317.98

So the layer's profit is:  £41,917.38 - £32,317.98 = £9,599.40

The layer probably beats the trader long term if he/she does exactly the same thing as the trader, but without the poor value backs at 1.6.

TBH, I backed the U3.5 goals on my belief that it would a tight, even match. It proved anything but as Liverpool had 12 shots on target to Newcastle's 3. So both I, & the Liverpool layers, had a profitable outcome. But it could quite easily have gone the other way. Based on how they match went, I think the pre-match odds were just about right. Considering how Liverpool dominated the play, had most of the possession & the chances. I think if the same game was played tomorrow, the odds would be very similar.

tobermory 04 Nov 12 18:38 
I wouldn't back United @4/11 v Wigan, never mind Liverpool





Really? 4/11 for United at home to Wigan would be a 'sell anything you own to lump it on' job. Wigan roll over at Old Trafford EVERY single time they go there.

RedRebel. I completely see where you're coming from. Only a few weeks ago, I would have even contemplated backing Liverpool at 1.6, but it's becoming such a trend that Liverpool dominate games without winning that I priced them around 1.75 yesterday.

i had em about 1.7


the result doesnt change the pre match price


suarez first last goalscorer was tipped up as a 2/1 shot but available on high street at 11/4

given the % of liverpool goals he scores i'm sure there is easier money that backing liverpool to win a game

Yes Donny, with the benefit of hindsight.

em yeah, but its a one for the future, too late obviously for yesterday




our friend mr pullein doesnt use a crystal ball

These popular bets (Suarez and co) will win from time to time, but
will never be value. I agreed with your first comment, that the
result doesn't affect the price. GL.

I agree Kenilworth. When a team is underpriced, their players' goalscoring odds tend to be underpriced too. Suarez first goalscorer at 2/1 is poor imo.

Someone agrees with me !! There's a collectors item !!!

2/1 suggest he'll score first in 13 games this season. He didn't even get 13 all last season at any time. While he's on course to blitz that this season already, 2/1 is shocking value.

That puts it well into perspective Darlo! Shocking price.

it was first or last goalscorer though

Oh, first or last. That is very different! Sorry, I didn't notice that.