Football
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
Best
1.WBA
2.Fulham
Worst
20.Liverpool
19.Norwich
1.WBA
2.Fulham
Worst
20.Liverpool
19.Norwich
Show More
shirley any team without a win will be joint bottom
sunderland backers have zero return yet laying sunderlands opponent has brought a return in each game
sunderland backers have zero return yet laying sunderlands opponent has brought a return in each game
donny, I do it on win bets based on price. For instance
a 6/4 loser is worse than a 3/1 loser. All bets to return
100 if successful, therefore a 6/4 chance would carry a
stake of 40, whereas a 3/1 chance 25 points. That is the
reason why Liverpool are bottom, their failures being
more expensive than, say Norwich. It's the way I bet and
reflects the different chances. Does that make sense ?
a 6/4 loser is worse than a 3/1 loser. All bets to return
100 if successful, therefore a 6/4 chance would carry a
stake of 40, whereas a 3/1 chance 25 points. That is the
reason why Liverpool are bottom, their failures being
more expensive than, say Norwich. It's the way I bet and
reflects the different chances. Does that make sense ?
Ken have you compiled a similar study re the +/- of laying the premiership teams. Might be interesting many here will prefer a "lay" to a "play" afterall.
That does make sense Ken though Donny wasn't to know you were calculating it that way tbf
That's so far though Ken.
Flattering starts for Fulham and West Brom and also Liverpool will hardly finish the season in Bottom 3.
Flattering starts for Fulham and West Brom and also Liverpool will hardly finish the season in Bottom 3.
Ken your a step or five ahead of the average punter on here,I like your thinking.
Liverpool will hardly finish the season in Bottom 3.
They might well finish bottom 3 in the 'worst bet' stats though, they usually do
They might well finish bottom 3 in the 'worst bet' stats though, they usually do
Liverpool are great, laying them is an easy way to profit
Lou, I'm not trying to flatter any side, just looking to
see if there is any inherent bias towards any side in the
market, we will see how it develops up to Wed Jan9 when I
go away on holiday.
Re Liverpool, I didn't do this before but I'm sure they
would have finished well down as they always seem to be
overbet.
see if there is any inherent bias towards any side in the
market, we will see how it develops up to Wed Jan9 when I
go away on holiday.
Re Liverpool, I didn't do this before but I'm sure they
would have finished well down as they always seem to be
overbet.
Would you keep data on this sort of thing supernap? Particularly, could you use subsets to divine at which point any given team rou
sorry
...routinely became their optimum backior laying option
...routinely became their optimum backior laying option
No,I have no idea what you mean or who your questions are
directed to.
directed to.
Sorry, that could have been a little clearer.
What I meant was, surely a man of your sophisticated and nuanced reasoning would not use such a blunt tool as his inspiration? It's all very well knowing that you would have made the most profit by backing West Brom or laying Liverpool, but would it not refine your parameters better if you could ascertain in which subsection of the graph (price/results) they were at their optimum point.
For instance, we know that Liverpool routinely underperform market expectations, but we would be better served by knowing when they were most likely to underperform i.e at short prices at home, or against better sides at home, etc.
Assuming that you could use similar analyses for all teams, and that you were prepared to accept that a team's form will in most cases not be a discrete pattern season-by-season but rather a continuation from the previous season, thus enabling a larger sample, this would be a most handy tool.
What I meant was, surely a man of your sophisticated and nuanced reasoning would not use such a blunt tool as his inspiration? It's all very well knowing that you would have made the most profit by backing West Brom or laying Liverpool, but would it not refine your parameters better if you could ascertain in which subsection of the graph (price/results) they were at their optimum point.
For instance, we know that Liverpool routinely underperform market expectations, but we would be better served by knowing when they were most likely to underperform i.e at short prices at home, or against better sides at home, etc.
Assuming that you could use similar analyses for all teams, and that you were prepared to accept that a team's form will in most cases not be a discrete pattern season-by-season but rather a continuation from the previous season, thus enabling a larger sample, this would be a most handy tool.
The most important thing is prices, and I don't have have access to
those from past matches, so I am collating from day1 of this season
updating on a weekly basis and see what emerges. It's just a fun
thing, and I'm just trying to see if the market has an inherent a
bias for or against any teams from a betting view. It won't prove
anything, but may keep me amused for the next 3/4 months and harm
no one. What it does show at the moment is that the top two sides
in the league at the moment, have not been the best teams to back,
but it is early days.
those from past matches, so I am collating from day1 of this season
updating on a weekly basis and see what emerges. It's just a fun
thing, and I'm just trying to see if the market has an inherent a
bias for or against any teams from a betting view. It won't prove
anything, but may keep me amused for the next 3/4 months and harm
no one. What it does show at the moment is that the top two sides
in the league at the moment, have not been the best teams to back,
but it is early days.
Post Your Reply
Please login to post a reply.
Wonder
Instance ID: 13539