A few short price tips for tonight & reasons

I usually avoid cup competitions, but I thought it would be worth a few small bets just to make the games interesting. All team selections dependant but found a few prices that are bigger than I expected, making them short price value bets. Thought I'd share to see how they do:

Newcastle vs Atromitos
Over 1.5 goals back 1.3
Newcastle back 1.45
Newcastle take a 1-1 scoreline back to their home ground, one that would see them qualify. But pardew has said that a strong team is needed as he wants to win the cup, the Atromitos manager has said he will not be giving up. I expect this one to be a very good match, Newcastle dominating the first leg with 7 corners to their 1, a good stat for a team away from home.Newcastles last ten home games had 25 goals, average 2.5 a match, only not scoring against the champions City. I don't know too much on the Greek side, but with 26 goals in their last ten games, average 2.6 a game, is a fairly respectable record, with only not scoring against one side. That's why I think that 1.3 is a big price for two goals with these teams, 1.18 would be more accurate IMO, also Newcastle promising to field a strong side, at home against a team that needs to attack, I think they could overpower them, which is why 1.45 for them to win is a decent bet.

Northampton vs Wolves
Northampton lay 3.65
Over 1.5 goals back 1.28
Recently relegated BPL side go to  league two side Northampton today in the Capital One cup. Northamptons last ten home games had 37 goals, average 3.7 a game failing to score in only one of these game. Wolves last ten away have had 35 goals, average of 3.5 a game. Watford have made a reasonable start to the Championship, sitting in 5th with two wins out of three, Northampton sitting in 9th in league two. I think the gulf in class between these two teams is too large, but this is the cup and strange things happen. That is why my tip is not to back Watford, but to lay Northampton. I was expecting them to be 4.5 + but at 3.65 that's a very short price, the lay will also cover the draw. Similarly the over 1.5 goals, the stats say these two score alot (see above), so 1.28 again is too large, I was expecting a 1.16 so it is value.

Inter vs Vaslui
Inter back 1.3    NAP
Over 1.5 back 1.26
Inter welcome Vaslui, a romanian side who lost the first leg 0-2. The romanian sides last ten away games have had 28 goals, an average of 2.8 a game, only failing to score in 1 of these. Inter's last ten home games have had 37 goals, 3.7 a game and failing to score in 3 of these. The fact that Inter managed to score two against Vaslui away from home, shows the class difference here. However Vaslui did have 11 corners compared to Inter's 5 in the last game, so I wouldn't be surprised if Vaslui will be attacking again in this game- they have to! This will have them coming at Inter and no doubt Inter will capitalise on this, as long as a decent team is fielded. I can see another 2-0 or 3-1 here, which is why Inter at 1.3 is a cracking bet, and over 1.5 at 1.26 is big, I was expecting 1.16.

CSKA vs AIK
Over 1.5 back 1.31
CSKA take a one goal lead into this home tie for them and are very strong favourites,  CSKA's last ten home games had 31 goals, average of 3.1 a game (incl friendlies), they have only lost 2 out of them ten which is a good record to have, scoring in each one of them. AIK last ten away games have had 16 goals, an average of 1.6 a game winning only 3 of them. As CSKA have the lead AIK will have to attack or they will be out, so this is going to leave gaps and should allow CSKA to over power them. I expected over 1.5 to be at the 1.2 mark, but seeing it at 1.3 meant it is good value.

Liverpool vs Hearts
Liverpool back 1.21
The first leg ended 0-1 to Liverpool, a very lucky result as it was an own goal. But they did play a very weakened side, also Liverpool are quite poor away from home this season. Hearts were also unbeaten in their last 3 games before Liverpool, but away from home they have yet to win in two games. Liverpool boss has promised to field a stronger side tonight, with the inclusion of Johnson, Suarez and Gerrard. Liverpool looked very impressive against the champions at home, and if the manager keeps to his word and plays Suarez and Gerrard, it could be a very one sided game. Hearts finished mid table last year in the SPL, a league which isn't as strong as the BPL, which Liverpool finished 8th.  I think Liverpool need a good display tonight as they have had a shakey start to the season, so I fancy Liverpool strongly here.