Lets help each other with tips, exit points and all the rest.
Here is some basic points,
1. LTD at odds of no more than 5.0.
2. If still 0-0 at around 70-75 mins, get out for loss of 100% of stake. No more.
3. If 1-0 to FAV at around 70-75, green up for profit of usually around 40%-60%, as an equaliser for the DOG at this point would result in 100% loss, and we don't want to get stung by a late goal for the dog.
4. If DOG leads 1-0 early on, get out for small loss (usually around 10%-20%). Re-enter if FAV equalises early enough in the game.
5. If FAV leads 2-0, decide your own exit point. Remember tho, that stranger things have happened than the dog scoring 2 goals in the last 10 mins of a match. And after 80 mins, at 2-0 to the FAV, you should be able to get around 90% profit. What sounds better, 90% PROFIT or 300% LOSS?
Let us know what games use fancy with tips and predictions.
Mate you wont win money laying the draw,try my system for a month and let me know how you go on. do it on all championship fixtures on any given saturdays , it works on all fixtures but ive found the championship most profitable, you bet the draw in the ht mkt,then you lay the 0.0 in the ht mkt. if the fixture is 0.0 at ht you only lose about 2 fiths of your stake, if its 1.0 either way or 2. 1 , ie any team is leading you are levels . but if its 1.1 ,2.2,3.3 at ht you . get paid out for the draw and also the lay for the 0.0 , you only need 1 . 1.1 ,for every 3 0.0 s to make a profit . do it on every fixture , the more you do the better it works.
Mate you wont win money laying the draw,try my system for a month and let me know how you go on. do it on all championship fixtures on any given saturdays , it works on all fixtures but ive found the championship most profitable, you bet the draw in
interesting system crackerpants. What is your staking plan generally for these bets? I assume it is a fairly rigid system and staking plan as you state that you only lose 2/5ths on a certain result?
interesting system crackerpants. What is your staking plan generally for these bets? I assume it is a fairly rigid system and staking plan as you state that you only lose 2/5ths on a certain result?
Crackerpants: Your logic and numbers are a little flawed. If the score is 0-0 at HT - which happens about 35% of the time in the Championship - you lose about 20% of your total stake. You are relying on the HT score draw which wins about 8.5% of the time, with the other 56.5% of bets breaking even, less commission which adds up quickly. To be profitable, you would need to lay the HT0-0 at 2.84 or less, and back the HTX at 2.34 or more, and that won't be easy.
Crackerpants: Your logic and numbers are a little flawed. If the score is 0-0 at HT - which happens about 35% of the time in the Championship - you lose about 20% of your total stake. You are relying on the HT score draw which wins about 8.5% of the
forget percents and commision ive played it for 4 seasons now and made a nice profit every season . start of for very small stakes and see how you go , or trial it for free . simply get the results from the weekend games.
forget percents and commision ive played it for 4 seasons now and made a nice profit every season . start of for very small stakes and see how you go , or trial it for free . simply get the results from the weekend games.
Rosso. First of all great thread. I have started this over the summer to practice and am now 134 games in. I keep everyone on a spreadsheet. A record of liability. Potential profit. Trade out time. Score at trade out. Actual profit / loss. Score at ft. Id be willing to share this with u if u wanted it. The 1st post on here helped me. The trade out if the dog scores early. I will play that. Thanks. I have a further rules. I will ltd in any game lay price < 5 Only if the 0-0 price is > 10. Lets face it we need goals. I am showing a 3% profit after 134 games. Which is less than i want. But i still learning and i hav made some bad decisions throughout. The red out if dog scores will help imo.
I not been on the forum much but will watch this thread with interest
Rosso. First of all great thread. I have started this over the summer to practice and am now 134 games in. I keep everyone on a spreadsheet. A record of liability. Potential profit. Trade out time. Score at trade out. Actual profit / loss. Score at f
Betting with no reference to prices, paying double commission, cannot win the long term. To win doing what you suggest, the betting would need some logic and/or the prices would have to be flawed, and there is no evidence of either from what I can see. There are no 'point and click' systems that win in my knowledge, but if you think this works for you, good luck.
Betting with no reference to prices, paying double commission,cannot win the long term. To win doing what you suggest, the betting would need some logic and/or the prices would have to be flawed, and there is no evidence of either from what I can see
Ken. Would 3% profit in 134 games not b a sufficient sample size to say there is some edge in this system? Its nit quite point and click. Some rules are applied
Ken. Would 3% profit in 134 games not b a sufficient sample size to say there is some edge in this system? Its nit quite point and click. Some rules are applied
hi crackerpants ime new to this betfair lark but find this forum very helpfull indeed,just looked at last saturdays championship results at h.t 8 teams were leading 2 were 0-0 and one was 1-1 would your system have showed a profit,cheers
hi crackerpants ime new to this betfair lark but find this forum very helpfull indeed,just looked at last saturdays championship results at h.t 8 teams were leading 2 were 0-0 and one was 1-1 would your system have showed a profit,cheers
YES mate that would have made a nice little profit for get all the genius,s quoting why it wont work and trial it for very small stakes.WHEN .YOU FIND THAT IT WORKS .then increase . i dont wont to argue with anyone about commision . percentages etc. ive just got a system that mkes me a few quid and just like to share it .
YES mate that would have made a nice little profit for get all the genius,s quoting why it wont work and trial it for very small stakes.WHEN .YOU FIND THAT IT WORKS .then increase . i dont wont to argue with anyone about commision . percentages etc.
hi liverpoolunited.i only play it in the ht mkts never on full 90 mins . and i never trade out . because any goal before ht is my trade out in its self .
hi liverpoolunited.i only play it in the ht mkts never on full 90 mins . and i never trade out . because any goal before ht is my trade out in its self .
OK dude good look try and pick the fixtures with free scoring team playing against each other . dont put defensive teams in. if tow are playing each other . il be interested to know how you do . as ive never played in that league before.
OK dude good look try and pick the fixtures with free scoring team playing against each other . dont put defensive teams in. if tow are playing each other . il be interested to know how you do . as ive never played in that league before.
Ken. Would 3% profit in 134 games not b a sufficient sample size to say there is some edge in this system? Its nit quite point and click. Some rules are applied
No, 3% over 134 matches is NOT a big enough sample. Which rules are applied and for what reason(s)? What about commission ? What about prices ?
LiverpoolUnited Joined: 28 Jan 12Replies: 741 04 Sep 12 09:22 Ken. Would 3% profit in 134 games not b a sufficient sample size to say there is some edge in this system? Its nit quite point and click. Some rules are applied No, 3% over 134 matches
Ken. Ill try to abswer even tho i cant really b bothered. I lay the draw between odds of 3 and 5. Reason is nothing more than amount of return i want from the bet. All my bets have a luability of around 50 quid. Of which i am willing to lose half. This means if the bet goes bad and they are drawing. I trade out to lise 25 quid at on average 76th min. Normally if a team goe 2 goals up i will trade out. Although sometimes i have missed this window and the bet runs its duration. But my intention is to trade out with 2 goal lead. The 3% return is minus all commish
Ken. Ill try to abswer even tho i cant really b bothered. I lay the draw between odds of 3 and 5. Reason is nothing more than amount of return i want from the bet. All my bets have a luability of around 50 quid. Of which i am willing to lose half. Th
LiverpoolUnited, I haven't read past the first line of your reply, and really I don't mind if you can't be bothered so long as any trusting soul CAN be bothered enough to be careful following you in. GL.
LiverpoolUnited, I haven't read past the first line of your reply, and really I don't mind if you can't be bothered so long as any trusting soul CAN be bothered enough to be careful following youin. GL.
just triied crackers system on all tonites games ..johnstones paint and conference and approx £20 stakes to an average odds sample ..so a total loss including commissions of -£105, but a profit of £252, leaving a net profit of approx £147
so its got flaws, which system hasnt but its definitely worth at least monitoring over a decent sized sample
thoughts??
just triied crackers system on all tonites games ..johnstones paint and conference and approx £20 stakes to an average odds sample ..so a total loss including commissions of -£105, but a profit of £252, leaving a net profit of approx £147so its g
Sorry its a busy week for me this week. Nice to see people here interested, I will try post my games here over the next few days, But will be back in full on Saturday.
Sorry its a busy week for me this week.Nice to see people here interested,I will try post my games here over the next few days,But will be back in full on Saturday.
sweetchild, can you explain how you were staking? from those matches, i believe 8 were 0-0 half time, and 4 were scoring draws.
to break even if one teams leading, i would suggest this would actually lead to a loss, not before factoring in commision.
sweetchild, can you explain how you were staking? from those matches, i believe 8 were 0-0 half time, and 4 were scoring draws.to break even if one teams leading, i would suggest this would actually lead to a loss, not before factoring in commision.
bacon the four score draws at half time yields approx 45 pounds if youre using twenty pound units so four of them wipes out the other losses and gives a profit...not saying this works yet, its not my system, just that it worked last night..it could bomb next time
bacon the four score draws at half time yields approx 45 pounds if youre using twenty pound units so four of them wipes out the other losses and gives a profit...not saying this works yet, its not my system, just that it worked last night..it could b
as with all systems 99.9% are probably flawed but if you can cherry pick little bits and pieces from various ones and refine and tinker with them, tyhen theres always ways to make money
as with all systems 99.9% are probably flawed but if you can cherry pick little bits and pieces from various ones and refine and tinker with them, tyhen theres always ways to make money
sorry to keep asking, but im genuinely interested. how does that figure with your 1st post? 45x4 is 180, and as i make it, each 0 0 costs you about 30 quid at those stakes?
sorry to keep asking, but im genuinely interested. how does that figure with your 1st post? 45x4 is 180, and as i make it, each 0 0 costs you about 30 quid at those stakes?
Sorry stepchild - I'm sounding like a stalker now Could you just tell me in one of the matches last night what actual bets you placed as I'm struggling with my maths here TTh
Sorry stepchild - I'm sounding like a stalker nowCould you just tell me in one of the matches last night what actual bets you placed as I'm struggling with my maths hereTTh
hammer im having trouble bringing up my details but... one of the games for example
£20 on half time draw @ 2.26 lay 0-0 at half time @ 2.86 £20
so in this game a score draw at half time means approx £23 profit on draw back plus the winning £20 lay on 0-0..giving approx £43 profit after commission
in this case a 0-0 at half time would have meant approx £13 loss, and a positive score at half time ie 1-0, a slight loss of around £1
hope its a bit clearer..as i say these are only approximates
hammer im having trouble bringing up my details but... one of the games for example£20 on half time draw @ 2.26 lay 0-0 at half time @ 2.86 £20so in this game a score draw at half time means approx £23 profit on draw back plus the winning £20 lay
well done son of shiner, try it in chamoionship next time and play all saturdays fixtures ignore the doom brigade and just play with your profit.if you like it and you show a profit over a few months or weeks . ive got other systems for you to try .only if your happy and show a profit though.
well done son of shiner, try it in chamoionship next time and play all saturdays fixtures ignore the doom brigade and just play with your profit.if you like it and you show a profit over a few months or weeks . ive got other systems for you to try .o
cracker i did something similar a while back..i might just tinker with staking slightly to tweak it here and there but as a system its not going to do you much damage as you only need one or two winners to clear a profit depending on how many games you play
cracker i did something similar a while back..i might just tinker with staking slightly to tweak it here and there but as a system its not going to do you much damage as you only need one or two winners to clear a profit depending on how many games y
as with athem,ll systems 99.9% are probably flawed but if you can cherry pick little bits and pieces from various ones and refine and tinker with tyhen theres always ways to make money
Yes, easier said than done, and one way of losing money, without tinkering GL
sweetchildofmine Joined: 26 Aug 07Replies: 10091 05 Sep 12 10:44 as with athem,ll systems 99.9% are probably flawed but if you can cherry pick little bits and pieces from various ones and refine and tinker with tyhen theres always ways to make mo
sometimes you get a saturday when there maybe ten fixtures and 4 scoring draws at ht, and no 0.0 . when this happens you mop up . but dont double up save the winnings for a tme when you may lose then judge the system after ten wks or so
sometimes you get a saturday when there maybe ten fixtures and 4 scoring draws at ht, and no 0.0 . when this happens you mop up . but dont double up save the winnings for a tme when you may lose then judge the system after ten wks or so
Assuming the HT 0-0 is on average 3.00 and the HT Draw price is 2.30 and £20 stakes on each
0-0 would result in a £15.30 loss (£26 win, minus 5% commission and a £40 loss) Score Draw results in a £43.70 win (£26 win, minus 5% commission and a £20 win, minus 5% com) Any Other results in a £1 loss (£20 win, minus 5% commission, and £20 loss)
Over the last 4 seasons in the Championship, 31.93% of games were 0-0 at HT, and 10.87% were Score Draws (Therefore 57.20% 'Any Other')
Given there are 552 games in a season, this would result in an average of £992.63 loss per season.
Even without commission, it shows a £547.50 loss per season.
I realise I am making some assumptions on the prices, but I don't think they are too unreasonable and/or too far out.
Assuming the HT 0-0 is on average 3.00 and the HT Draw price is 2.30 and £20 stakes on each0-0 would result in a £15.30 loss (£26 win, minus 5% commission and a £40 loss)Score Draw results in a £43.70 win (£26 win, minus 5% commission and a £2
interesting stats ted, i suppose you could filter out some of those losses ie maybe the likes of the top teams against weaker opposition....as in all approaches a bklanket approach would probably yield a loss as you say
interesting stats ted, i suppose you could filter out some of those losses ie maybe the likes of the top teams against weaker opposition....as in all approaches a bklanket approach would probably yield a loss as you say
Funnily enough I thought the same thing Mr Baboon, but commission kills that approach.
Assuming the same prices, it would result in a £101.25 loss per season with commission included, although without commission, this rises to a £547.50 win per season
Funnily enough I thought the same thing Mr Baboon, but commission kills that approach.Assuming the same prices, it would result in a £101.25 loss per season with commission included, although without commission, this rises to a £547.50 win per seas
Im sure there'd be plenty of point'n'click systems which would make a few quid if it wasnt for commission.
Its when you do the numbers (like above) you're reminded how much commission is the killer.
Im sure there'd be plenty of point'n'click systems which would make a few quid if it wasnt for commission.Its when you do the numbers (like above) you're reminded how much commission is the killer.
first of all id like to say why are peole knocking my system without even trying it. football is a very unpredictable game , if every game went to form we would all bet man utd at home at 2 to 5 every match and we would all be millionaire and all bookies would be out of bussiness. but it doesnt go to form and people overlook the draw . ived developed this system over time using the non form angle if u like , the ht draw is a big player in any game. all i ask is do this for the rest of september and you WILL show a profit, i dont do percentages . and one clicks and all that other stuff that people are looking into too much i will make profit i hope ssome one tries it. if it doesnt work slag me off on here all you like and il admit im wrong but jus try it for 2 pound a game bet. and 2 lay . its not going to break the bank. remember bet the draw ht mkt, lay the o.o ht mkt in every championship game this saturday snd pick up your profit at 5.pm .
first of all id like to say why are peole knocking my system without even trying it. football is a very unpredictable game , if every game went to form we would all bet man utd at home at 2 to 5 every match and we would all be millionaire and all boo
first of all id like to say why are peole knocking my system without even trying it.
Because it can't be a long-term winner, unless the prices are wrong, and you offer no reason why prices in the Championship on a Saturday in the HT0-0 and HTX markets are wrong.
As you said yourself, "you only need one 1-1 for every three 0-0s to make a profit" - but last season in the Championship, there were only 47 score-draws to 193 0-0s. Take away the commission on the other outcomes and you can see how the numbers don't add up. Yes, on any given set of 12 fixtures, you may well win, but long-term, no. And backing the draw and then laying off one of the selections you have just backed is nonsense. Just back the 1-1, 2-2, but that won't be a long-term winner either.
There is no simple one-size-fits-all winning system. Ted's numbers are a good guide to how this would play out in practice.
first of all id like to say why are peole knocking my system without even trying it.Because it can't be a long-term winner, unless the prices are wrong, and you offer no reason why prices in the Championship on a Saturday in the HT0-0 and HTX markets
dsmith • September 5, 2012 7:56 PM BST How did ted broken do his maths to get to the loss figures, anyone know how he worked that out?
I double checked my sheets this morning, and found I'd referenced a cell incorrectly in one of my workings, so the loss isn't quite as bad as I projected yesterday. I'll break down my workings below so I know they're correct this time :D
(I have used all HT results from 08-09 season through to the end of 11-12 season)
0-0 31.93% (176.25 games per season) @ -£15.30 each = -£2,696.63
Score Draw 10.87% (60.00 games per season) @ +£43.70 each = +£2622.00
Any Other 57.20% (315.75 games per season) @ -£1.00 each = -£315.75
...overall showing -£74.63 per season
Again, this is assuming 0-0 price is 3.00 and HTX price is 2.30 and commission is 5%
dsmith • September 5, 2012 7:56 PM BSTHow did ted broken do his maths to get to the loss figures, anyone know how he worked that out?I double checked my sheets this morning, and found I'd referenced a cell incorrectly in one of my workings, so the
OK, here are 'results' for some other leagues: average win/loss per season over the last 4 seasons
Again, this is assuming 0-0 price is 3.00, HTX price is 2.30 and commission is 5%...I am also making the assumption that both markets are available for all league (not too sure if they are for eg lower league Scots stuff)
Eng Prem: +£272.03 (29.14% 0-0, 11.84% SD) League 1: +£565.65 (29.39% 0-0, 12.64% SD) League 2: -£59.28 (29.94% 0-0, 10.24% SD) Conference: -£58.65 (30.85% 0-0, 10.56% SD)
OK, here are 'results' for some other leagues: average win/loss per season over the last 4 seasons Again, this is assuming 0-0 price is 3.00, HTX price is 2.30 and commission is 5%...I am also making the assumption that both markets are available for
I wouldn't say I've proved it, as I am not using real prices; just estimates.
But I guess it shows that it is worth further investigation for anyone who has the required pricing data
I wouldn't say I've proved it, as I am not using real prices; just estimates. But I guess it shows that it is worth further investigation for anyone who has the required pricing data
no in understand as with systems there are flaws and big doubts, its just the poster that brought it up doesnt deserve the flak hes been getting..cheers for your efforts ted
no in understand as with systems there are flaws and big doubts, its just the poster that brought it up doesnt deserve the flak hes been getting..cheers for your efforts ted
the reason it works in september is this the best 3 form team from last yr got promoted . the three that came down no one knows if they are better or worse than those that went uo also the three what came up from league one are replacing the three in the league that lost nearly every week.what im getting at is loads of different fixtures and no form to go on . so the draw is an obviuos senario
the reason it works in september is this the best 3 form team from last yr got promoted . the three that came down no one knows if they are better or worse than those that went uo also the three what came up from league one are replacing the three in
also in reply to ted brogan some ht draw prices are considarabley bigger when say the top of the league plays the bottom.on average your not too far away though mate wd ted . now lets get some cash in on saturday
also in reply to ted brogan some ht draw prices are considarabley bigger when say the top of the league plays the bottom.on average your not too far away though mate wd ted . now lets get some cash in on saturday
crackerpants 06 Sep 12 20:09 Joined: 26 Oct 10 | Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: crackerpants's blog also in reply to ted brogan some ht draw prices are considarabley bigger when say the top of the league plays the bottom.on average your not too far away though mate wd ted . now lets get some cash in on saturday
This would make no difference because the ht 0-0 price would be considerably bigger too!
crackerpants06 Sep 12 20:09Joined:26 Oct 10| Topic/replies: 27 | Blogger: crackerpants's blogalso in reply to ted brogan some ht draw prices are considarabley bigger when say the top of the league plays the bottom.on average your not too far away tho
Ok cracker pants judgement time, I ve had a quick look at the div 1 games today I might be wrong but
5 were 0-0 at ht none were score draws. Doesn't look good tbh
Ok cracker pants judgement time, I ve had a quick look at the div 1 games today I might be wrong but 5 were 0-0 at ht none were score draws. Doesn't look good tbh
I can't even see the reasoning behind this as a long term betting proposition! Commission would kill it if nothing else you may as well bet the ht 1-1 and take the variance rather than playing 2 markets where, i presume, you come out nigh on level if one team is leading at ht, lose if 0-0 at ht and only profit if a score draw at ht so you'd pay commission on the ht 0-0 lay and pay commission on the ht score draw
I posted this on his thread that he started further down. Commission is the killer for the majority of punters on here yet he wants to pay it twice!
I can't even see the reasoning behind this as a long term betting proposition!Commission would kill it if nothing else you may as well bet the ht 1-1 and take the variance rather than playing 2 markets where, i presume, you come out nigh on level if
Unfortunately for you, two winning bets (score draws) come in only 8.5% of the time in your best league.
You 'break even' and thus pay one commission 56.5% of the time if the HT score is not a draw, and you lose 35% of the time on the 0-0s.
Long term, this is another losing strategy.
You said yourself that "You only need one 1-1 for every three 0-0s to make a profit" yet the ratio is greater than 4:1 in the Championship.
And for anyone thinking that one or two rounds of matches proves anything, you have much to learn.
Unfortunately for you, two winning bets (score draws) come in only 8.5% of the time in your best league. You 'break even' and thus pay one commission 56.5% of the time if the HT score is not a draw, and you lose 35% of the time on the 0-0s.Long term,
Yes i know dsmith your right i said il play league one and it bombed, but league 2 paid profit and conferense must have been very close maybe someone can get me the stats for all the leagues, however if you remember my original posts i wanted to play champion ship. the reason for this is phase two of the system. this is where you might find it boring but this is where the trading comes in , ok weve established the system works sometimes and bombs sometimes, where paying two lots of 5 percnt commision, if we have double bouble, and the 0.0 s kill ya? but if youve done all the previous system, and your still running on all the 0.0s. what is he talking about i here you cry. but the traders out there might understand. you have to do all my previous system, on any league you want . but i chose championship because i think 0.0 might be most common. everyone is now thinking as he gone mad hes contradicting himself , fierst he dont want 0.0 now he does. the point is if we still on the 0.0 in the full time mrkt then we on at very nice odds. sorry if im confusing anyone its just the best way to explain it. basically this is it do my previous system. but in every game bet 0.0 full time mkt say 8 , 9 , sometimes 10 ?, this needs to be covered, so you lay 0.0 ht, when you get to ht you could be winning or loosing allready but usually there wont be a lot in it . but your still have your 0.0 s ft running , you might have 3 or 4 , hopefully, and at vastly diminished odds, all you need to do is trade them out for profit either way, the best way to do this is take a small risk leave the trades till 5 to 10 mins into 2nd half if someone scores that one bombs but tyou will still have soms trade and the odds will be very shor by now, the other way if your not brave enough to wait 5 mins is trade small chunks off each bet still running and keep flicking from one to the other this will buy you the ten minutes you need to easily make a successfull trade . im sorry if ive boredanyone . thanks for reading.
Yes i know dsmith your right i said il play league one and it bombed, but league 2 paid profit and conferense must have been very close maybe someone can get me the stats for all the leagues, however if you remember my original posts i wanted to play
This 'crackerjack' system works best on Fridays - at 5 to 5. When there are no games scheduled!
So now we are backing the FT0-0 too? And adding a trading component? Are you Slicer in disguise?
As Kenilworth says, there are no long-term profits to add up. Make sure you have a red pen handy, you'll need it.
This 'crackerjack' system works best on Fridays - at 5 to 5. When there are no games scheduled!So now we are backing the FT0-0 too? And adding a trading component? Are you Slicer in disguise?As Kenilworth says, there are no long-term profits to add u
CPFC. the system works better on satdays at 5.0 , when i drag my profit and pay my commission. championship nailed it , very nice profit, any one out there that thinks im a complete prat lets hear from you . but just keep monitoring my system over a few weeks and see how much it would have got ya . if you played.
CPFC. the system works better on satdays at 5.0 , when i drag my profit and pay my commission. championship nailed it , very nice profit, any one out there that thinks im a complete prat lets hear from you . but just keep monitoring my system over a