Spain 2 v 2 Croatia

well done mate, nice little earner thaat will be even when your out at whatever price.

what price u looking to get out on?

personally i would have thought 4/5?

I think 5 . something

Messed it up really as probably only make 100-200 level green even laying off at those odds

Mistake was starting with £50 @12.5 ,should have taken everything there down to 9 or so

yeah, definately. when i first saw it it was on 11.5, but had been matched earlier than that at 7! still not bad though mate!

maybe lay most of it off and keep a bit to lay lower when the score gets to 2-1

it might be an idea to trade over the next few days and during the game

but i prefer to get out of the market soon as the only thing i was certain of was that it would crash from 12

Summary:

- If Italy fail to beat Ireland, both Spain & Croatia qualify.  Spain win the group unless Croatia beat them.

If Italy do beat Ireland, then:

- If Spain beat Croatia, Spain win the group and Italy 2nd
- If Croatia beat Spain, Croatia win the group and Italy 2nd
- If Spain & Croatia draw 0-0, Italy win the group and Spain 2nd
- If Spain & Croatia draw 2-2 or higher, Spain win the group and Croatia 2nd
- If Spain & Croatia draw 1-1, it comes down to who thumped Ireland by the most.  Spain already did better than Croatia, so they are through, and Italy can finished any of 1st 2nd or 3rd based on whether they beat Spain's 4-0 and/or Croatia's 3-1.  If Italy won exactly 4-0 or 3-1 then I believe it would go to UEFA Coefficients, in which case they would beat Croatia but not Spain.

Hope I've got that right!

I've laid 2-2 draw for £400 at 7.16 Any draw or win puts Spain through and I can't believe a fix will be on

Yeah that looks right KR

Don't know wtf someone like Chiles will get his head round that

I doubt the fix too Sultan

But i think it will go a fair bit shorter

So far there is no media coverage of the scenario , so majority on here unaware .Only about 6 people posted on this thread

Once TV clarify it, the conspiracy theorists will be all over prices like 6 or 7 IMO

radio 5 have just cottoned on to it

Obviously if it did get to 2-2 I doubt that either team will try to score too hard but will it get to 2-2?

Chiles had a good go at it then

Interesting to see what the bookmakers offer

Obviously if it did get to 2-2 I doubt that either team will try to score too hard but will it get to 2-2?

They will be very aware of the Italy score

I think it will start off 'normal'

1-1 is potentialy great for both, so at that point i think the game would 'slow down', then maybe (if Italy go 2-0) Spain would step it up and get a goal, but then we are an equalizer away !

Spain won their first 2 Euro 2008 matches and then made (I think) 9 or 10 changes and still won the 3rd game. While they don't have the luxury of knowing they will be top of the group, they will probably rest players which could mean that those coming in could be playing quite hard for a place.  Overall though, 7ish looks a very good price, Spain are very familiar with these stitch-ups, just look at the draw in the Celta Vigo-Cordoba game on the last day of the second division season, the draw was 1.27, 0-0 was 2.3 at the off.  There were no goals, no bookings and I suspect no shots on target!

Chiles had a good go at it then

Said they hope to figure it out by the time the games kick off

no way will spain rest players, if they did lose they will prob be out!

14/1 on with bookie

the bookie has priced it up like a normal game then without knowing that a 2-2 draw would put them both through

B*365 have put HT/FT prices up - combined price for draw at full time is just over 2/1, much better than here.  These will all shorten but sadly my account has been closed so good luck to those who can get on

will they try and palp that Investor?

3-3 will also get both teams through, 34 if you fancy a proper feast.

no, don't think so tobermory.

Do you really think that Spain would risk playing for a 2-2 draw, imagine the game going into injury time and Modric lashes in a winner from 25 yards!

that 3-3 price is surely going to shrivel up before the day? might be worth a back to lay now?

if its 2-2 croatia wont be leaving their own half! they wouldnt want to risk going out either

yeah cheers Rodan just took 36, hadn't been watching that

had been all the way down to 14 earlier, god knows how it got back up to 30 odd

Can't see it going off bigger than 16 once the scenario has been pasted all over the sporting pages tommorow. 2-2 will be 3s on the high st if you're lucky, 3-3 might be 10.

IIRC correctly the draw in match betting in 2004 was a 4/5 shot!!

had some 32 for 3-3, good spot lads

Anyone recall what the 2-2 SP was for Sweden v Denmark?

i know it was backed from 16-1 to 5-2 before bookies upped sticks

5.4 to lay now. I've jumped in too early with my lay

brilliant i just noticed the thread well played tobes great trade. i cleaned up in the spanish fix between celta and cordoba same again here

Sultan maybe lump on @5.5 in the hope that when (if) Motd point it out tonight, people will crash it further beliving in the fix

It is a shocking price for anything other than trading no doubt though

If you are that confident in your reasoning may as well let original bet run on the basis it was a great value lay

The 2 scands fixed that easily

Lay 2 2 here all day - if it gets to 5 - LAY LAY LAY

exactly what zealot said ultimate value lay these are the the opportunities to clean up

theres no way croatia will score 2 against spain & at 5/1,what a shocking bet,wont happen,would be 18/1 normally,so should be about 10/1 with these circumstances,not 5/1.

the powers that be will be watching,wont be able to fix it so can't be a 2-2 draw

they were watching the last time it happened

games can be fixed 0-0 like the one in spain other week but not 2-2. you score 2 and you let us score 2. JUST NO!not guna happen if the game finishes 2-2 then its because thats how game has played out.

there were fans in the crowd holding up banners saying 2-2.
Hansen it was nigh on impossible for teams to arrange results

result 2-2

hansen said

this was a betting preview of the 2004 game

----------------------------------------------------------------------------... -

Football: Euro 2004: MR FIX IT - Bookies fear carve-up as draw tipped; MR FIX IT.

Byline: Paul Jain

WILL they or won't they that is the dilemma facing punters deliberating on a bet on tonight's Sweden Denmark clash.

If the two Nordic nations draw 2-2 or higher they will both reach the last eight no matter what happens in the other Group C clash between Italy and Bulgaria.

The Swedes and Danes say fair play will ensure and point out that a2-2draw is a difficult result to play for.

However, bookies are taking no chances and a scoreline scoreline  which normally pays 14-1 has been cut to 5-1bysome firms.

The draw price is favourite for the match with Premierbet offering just 5-4 and the best on offer is 11-8 from Bet365.

My own opinion is the 2-2 is unlikely because there will be an uproar if it comes up.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------...

the goalkeeper patted a save to the opposing teams player to make it 2-2.

surely italys price should drift right out if this was the case & their price hasnt drifted.

they have fone from 15.5 to 17 ,they should drift more imo and they will

Was trying to lay it all off @5.4 ish but then price went up before fully out

Had a bit more on @7.4

If they literally fixed it, i.e. Croatia score 2 own goals and then Spain score 2 own goals then they get the cigars out for 88 mins, would that actually be against the rules?

Surely now MOTD explain the situation and get this price back down

''it's insanely complicated and we'll come back to it on Monday''

oh ffs 

That is abysmally amateurish from The BBC

Viewers who don't understand (which will likely be the majority) might have thought that would be explained .

Scenario been known since before 7pm

what you expect for £40K per show ?

William Hill go 9-4 2-2. But 7-4 available for the match to be a draw with other bookmakers . Nobody with slightest understanding of probability would back the correct score over just a draw

They won't mke it so obvious this time.

I am going for 3-3

There is no way this game will finish 2-2. i have layed 2-2 as much as i can, and i advise all of u mugs who think 2-2 should be priced below 20 to  come to ur senses and to lay it so i can green out at fair price

Don't think that you will get many takers henok.  Any score can be contrived.  If either team goes 2 up they are unlikely to want to let the others score but if it is 1-1 with 20 mins to go, they would be plain stupid not to arrange 2-2 as otherwise they are handing a spot to Italy, perhaps as plain stupid as those on this thread who suggest that 2-2 can't be a arranged.

How many do Italy need to win by if Spain-croatia ends 1-1?

Worth noting that it's now 15 games at major championships going back to 2006 since Spain last conceded 2 in a game. Can't see Croatia having enough possession/chances to score 2 goals.

Surely also worth backing Croatia on the outright @ 42 then as this would no doubt come in if they qualify / when people realise they are likely to do so?! Or has this already come in? I can't check as just on my phone atm

If this was a lower league Italian fixture then I'd be involved. I'm thinking that this is an outstanding lay.

Mariner Paul 15 Jun 12 10:37 
If this was a lower league Italian fixture then I'd be involved. I'm thinking that this is an outstanding lay.





Completely agree, think people are getting far too carried away here and a lot of this is people following the money.

The odds for over 0.5, 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 are no different to what you'd normally expect for a Spain game. If the 2-2 is so certain then these individual goal market odds should be a lot lower than they are.

Bet365 have reported several bets on this scoreline already which have forced the odds down to 4/1, while William Hill are even more worried and offer just 9/4 that the game finishes in a 2-2 scoreline, while the 1-1 draw is priced at 5/1.

it looks dodgy to me

The way I see this it could be a huge opportunity for the layers.
Spain race into a 2 goal lead, Croatia pull one back and everyone on here goes mental trying to buy money on 2-2 at evens or below.
Croatia push forward, Spain catch them on the break and score a third to leave the conspiracy theorists crying in their beer.

How many do Italy need to win by if Spain-croatia ends 1-1?

The it will simply be decided by what score they beat Ireland by

So Italy will need 3-1 or better .

They really have to change that rule - as it stands why wouldn't Spain and Croatia play out  a high score draw? It would be stupid of them not to. It's not like any spoken arrangement has to be made either - the players will just do it because it's the smart thing to do.

The rules need changing. If there has to be play-off's then so be it.

tobermory
Date Joined:     01 Mar 08
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14 Jun 12 22:02 Joined: 01 Mar 08 | Topic/replies: 26,657 | Blogger: tobermory's blog
had been all the way down to 14 earlier, god knows how it got back up to 30 odd

Be careful backing the 3-3. Many of the 'routes' that lead to this scoreline go 'through 2-2.

croatia wont score 2 v spain if they played for 2weeks ffs

exactly Padlock. Unless they let them! :-)

Be careful backing the 3-3. Many of the 'routes' that lead to this scoreline go 'through 2-2.

They do, it looks a bit less dubious though if the score were to change from 2-2 to 2-3 at some point.

I'm suprised 1-1 is so big .If  1-1  is reached early, and Italy/Ireland is still 0-0, then it will be job done, at least until Italy are 2 up, which may never happen.

The assumption is that Italy are going to smash Ireland out of sight .I can't see that at all . When do Italy ever do that , doubt they will be up to it.

Hi there Tobermory.

Quick question. What do you think the draw price will go to if a) spain score in the first half hour and b) Croatia score in the first half hour.

Cheers.

Depends whats happening in the other game, so hard to say

Coulld go odds on if Croatia acore

great drift on  the 2-2 now, gone above 8.0

top bookies price is 6.0

Also SJ have 1-1 @9.0 ,can lay it here @7.8

7 - 7.4 now .

want this back to 6 again, or else up to 8 so i can back again

This has to be a golden lay.  Can't see any reason Spain wouldn't play for a win here...

they win the group with a draw

unless it is a 0-0 draw and Italy beat Ireland

certainly 0-0 is a tricky scoreline in play for Spain, as they could be 1 goal from elimination, 1-1 is likely to be comfortable

2-2 is ideal

What happens if Italy win 5-0 ???

A lot of people under-rating Croatia on this thread. Just as capable of winning the game as Spain.

spanish newspapers are Report this ..marca and as.com

Italy goals v Ireland will settle it if  Spain 1-1

personally i would back rather than lay at 7s.

just backed 4 x £50 bets with will hills at 12/1 for 2-2 however their online price is 4/1 asked the guy to show price and all three shops have! went into first will hill today at about 5 after hearing from a friend that he got 12's asked for price and after checking he told me 12, i stupidly slapped 500 on the table which prompted him to phone thru after which he told me they could offer only 4/1. I left with my stake after insulting the guy telling him the probability of spain to win 1-0 (5/1) should not be a higher probability of spain drawing 2-2 (4/1) and that will hill shouldn't take bets on a match deemed to be fixed/corrupt. i then hunted down four william hills on my local high st placing lower stake of 50's to avoid arrousing suspicion.

bottom line is will i be paid up at 12's should game end 2-2 even though all slips are clearly priced up at 12's?

so 12/1 was that on a coupon

no just wrote it out after confirming price with cashier and they all wrote price on slip

i think you will have problems

if it is 2-2 that is , they won't be offering a refund if it don't end that score

are you laying it on here?

yeah gonna lay on here! are you saying they wont pay out at 12/1 having confirmed price on slip should result finish 2-2?

they may sat as they had cut it online the night before that 4/1 was the price and the sraff got it wrong so just pay you 4/1

Spain will go all out to beat Croatia simply because they can ,they won't have a case to answer to  .

If after 30 minutes or so the score is still 0-0 then something might be contrived ,who knows ?

The 12/1 laid is clearly wrong.  I assume that the cashier took it from a correct score chart.  Billies went 9/4 on their web site when they first put up prices.  They have also printed a coupon with 9/4 on.  If it comes up they will try to pay you at 9/4 so you need to be very careful if you lay it on here as you could end up facing a large loss.  Ladcreeks had a message on their manager's screen on Friday morning telling staff not to lay prices off the correct score chart.  I assume that Billie's will have provided the same message to their staff. Before the Gambling Act they would cite the palpable error rule, but that no longer applies and betting is covered by contract law.  The slip you have with 12/1 on it is a contract that, despite any measures they try, they have to stick by. If they try to pay you at 9/4 and you refuse they will encourage and expect you to go to IBAS, by whose judgments they comply.  You must not do this under any circumstances as IBAS is incompetent, funded by bookies and will almost certainly find in the bookies favour in a case like this.  If it is 2-2 and this happens you should first tell them that you will not refer it to IBAS but will take them to court.  Assuming that this does not make them pay you should pursue them through the small claims court, and put the names of Ralph Topping (CEO of Billies) and the shop manager on the form you submit to the court.  Ultimately, if it is a winner, they have to pay you.  If so, you will, of course, be banned from all of that firm's shops where they know you.

It does sound like a lot of hassle, i remember the initial 9/4, they were the 1st firm to react, so they will not be happy to pay 12/1

personally, i cant see this 2-2 happening...

spain would look a laughing stock, and the match would be sure to be investigated, and in a big way too...

if it does end 2-2, then is there really any point in these competitions going ahead...

surely, it would make more sense to just do it on goal difference than head to head

Final result 2-2....................

It is not going to happen. Please

If it is 2-2 there will be some raised eyebrows for a day or 2 but in the long run nothing will happen. It can't as there will be no evidence of collusion and UEFA has to stand by its inept application of tie breaker rules that leave the fate of a team in two others playing each other.  Tie breaks should obviously be sorted by goal difference or goal average in all group games.  2-2 now out to 8.6, which is about 40% the price that it would normally be - this looks a cracking bet to me at the current price.

parity has been restored well played to everyone who layed in the 5s

tobermory

Surely now MOTD explain the situation and get this price back down

Do you genuinely think that anyone throwing serious coin at this market doesn't understand the situation?  Genuine question, by the way.

Tobermory - agree with your thoughts about Italy. Sure they will probably win, but I really can't see them smashing in loads of goals. Yet +4.5 is only 6.something to lay...

If Croatia are winning 2-1 surley they would rather have Italy to qualify than the world champions, opposed to some pre-match gentlemans agreement.

Back     Your
Odds     Your
Stake     Your
Profit
2 - 2     8.85     £187.63     £1,472.24
Ref: Bet matched:
      £187.63

Lay     Backer's
Odds     Backer's
Stake     Payout Liability
2 - 2     7.49     £1,926.73     £14,429.43 £12,502.70
Ref: Bet matched:
      £1,926.73

great trade investor. 2-2 out to 10 now guys spain in from 1.95 to 1.77.