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kenilworth
15 May 12 00:26
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Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 15,627 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
The home side seem a big price, around 2.2 or better
considering they have already beaten the opposition
away 2-0. I guess it's because they don't have to
actually win the match, having a 2 goal start. Any
views ?

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Replies: 99
By:
Ratmouth
When: 15 May 12 00:48
I agree it's a big price but not because of the first leg. I think it's a big price full stop. I don't subscribe to the "Don't have to win the match" scenario either. Any manager and good team for that matter should know that if you have the impetus you should keep attacking. I chalked this up at around 10/11 for Huddersfield so I'm happy to be wrong. I'm in.
By:
green army
When: 15 May 12 09:15
Absolutely, huge price - was up to 2.28 yesterday, my take is that as 0-0 is unlikely (12.5) then match odds are almost like betting on who scores first cos if its the terriers mkd will know its all over, so yes evens or just above seems right to me

also got to be high scoring options, overs, 3-2 etc, even 3-3 if mkd score first
By:
berto77
When: 15 May 12 09:23
I fully agree with green army.  It's all about the first goal from a match odds point of view.  Reminds me of the west ham Cardiff match which was 0-2 after the first leg.  Game over as soon as west ham scored.  Very unpredictable if Cardiff had been awarded that early penalty.

It's a similar story tonight.  I think Huddersfield will score first and win, but I won't play match odds just in case mk dons score first and Huddersfield are happy with 1-1 (or a nervy 0-1).
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 09:53
I won't play match odds just in case mk dons score first and Huddersfield are happy with 1-1 (or a nervy 0-1).

Exactly, and probably the reason why Huddersfield are the price they are. They could comfortably settle
for a score that gets them through, and not necessarily winning the match.
By:
green army
When: 15 May 12 09:58
yeah I see this, I just think if hudderfield score first you have a buoyant terriers side knowing they are thru,& the crowd wanting more v mkd knowing they are out and wanting to go home - I just see it as v unlikely them coming back even for a draw
By:
green army
When: 15 May 12 11:03
bit of a bounce here 2.28 into 2.16 now back at 2.26 not sure why, probably the above argument, tho I cant see it lasting
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 13:35
Huddersfield will know they need at least one goal, as MK would be
expected to score, most sides do score, and if MK get the first then
it would get nervy. It should be interesting, especially if MK get in
first.
By:
dizzydavid1
When: 15 May 12 15:25
Green Army....I don't agree with your assertion that it's impossible for MK to score 3 (or more) goals if Huddersfield score 1... "on who scores first cos if its the terriers mkd will know its all over", "a buoyant terriers side knowing they are thru,& the crowd wanting more v mkd knowing they are out"
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 15:46
I  suspectgreen army is a Huddersfield sympathiser.
By:
dizzydavid1
When: 15 May 12 16:09
So am I tonight Kenilworth because (a) I like Jordan Rhodes from his time at Brentford, including helping us win the league and (b) I'd rather face MK next season rather than Huddersfield, and (c) Huddersfield being promoted would be better for my bank than MK going up. Interesting duel in the technical area tonight...Larry Grayson vs a slim version of James Cordern.
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 16:18
I was thinking he was a Huddersfield supporter. Maybe not.
By:
dizzydavid1
When: 15 May 12 16:39
Huddersfield's keeper might wear green but that's about all. He's a Plymouth Argyle fan.
By:
green army
When: 15 May 12 16:51
yeah its me wallet supporting the terriers and i agree its not impossible for mkd to score 3, only that heads may go down if huddersfield score first and early

went to leeds road once couldnt stop humming the tune for the hovis ad for a week
By:
green army
When: 15 May 12 16:52
yeah its me wallet supporting the terriers and i agree its not impossible for mkd to score 3, only that heads may go down if huddersfield score first and early

went to leeds road once couldnt stop humming the tune for the hovis ad for a week
By:
dimebar8
When: 15 May 12 17:00
hey ken.... is doing odds*probability/100 enough to give you the answer to see if something is value or not? i used the payout indicator and payout share to calculate the probabilities of the outcomes. they all add up to 100% but in essence it's just comparing betfair prices to the average ods of 5 or 6 bookies prices isn't it?
By:
dimebar8
When: 15 May 12 17:03
i got...

Huddersfield = 1.020842
Draw = 0.94465
MK Dons = 0.92574

which suggests huddersfield are the only value for a back but i'd rather lay MK Dons.

i want to add my own rating system into it all too to get my own prices to compare as well but i don't want to add too many factors into it.
By:
dizzydavid1
When: 15 May 12 17:27
I'm backing under 2.5 at 2.12, if it gets matched.
By:
tegz
When: 15 May 12 17:46
huddersfield will outperform the mk dons as they have done in the history on their clashes
By:
dizzydavid1
When: 15 May 12 18:45
My bet has now been matched so I'm on under 2.5 at 2.12.
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 18:52
dimebar, I do my own ratings in all 4 leagues, adjust on a match by match basis,
make allowance for ground advantage and come up with corresponding prices, then
compare them with other compilers, and take it from there. A simple example is
this evenings pairing, Huddersfield v MK Dons 81 and 80 points respectively in
the league, I would rate them equally if played on a neutral ground but with it
being at Huddersfield, I would have the home side about 2.20, the visitors 3.70
the draw about 3.55. Having said that, this is not a league game and other factors
come into it. In the case of, say Huddersfield at 2.20, I compare it with other
prices and if there is a big discrepancy, the home side being perhaps 2.0, I would
be looking to lay them etc, etc. You need to read up it and there are books about
(Pullein ?) which can be helpful. GL.
By:
scaredmoney
When: 15 May 12 19:03
Had a lay of Huddersfield. I think the 1st goal is gunna be vital and MKD have no choice but to go for it. Huddersfield can be very iffy at the back and have never won a play off game at home.
By:
Dan Chipowski
When: 15 May 12 19:04
Anybody got the line ups?
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 19:07
scared, how many playoff matches have they played at home,
and who is playing tonight who played in the previous ?
By:
scaredmoney
When: 15 May 12 19:10
just using some stats Ken,trying to convince myself rather than anyone else.....good luck with your bet sir
By:
Mariner Paul
When: 15 May 12 19:11
Huddersfield drift.
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 19:15
Good luck with yours, young man. For the record, I think those sort
of stats are meaningless for obvious reasons.
By:
aidan jr
When: 15 May 12 19:16
Mk over priced need to win
By:
scaredmoney
When: 15 May 12 19:19
I wouldnt say they were totally meaningless although i do take your point on board.
If MKD get an early goal the support will be thinking "here we go again,been here before"
These nerves in the stand are soon transfered onto the field of play.
As i said,the 1st goal will be vital. Huddersfield get it,game over. MKD get it,game on.
By:
kenilworth
When: 15 May 12 19:24
I agree with everything you say to a degree, especially about
the first goal.
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 15 May 12 19:46
DONS PLAYING 3 UP FRONT..SOUNDS LIKE IT COULD BE GOALS....LAY OF THE DRAW FOR ME.  GOOD LUCK  Happy
By:
themover
When: 15 May 12 19:46
Huddersfield for me, good luck all
By:
Dan Chipowski
When: 15 May 12 19:50
Lively start from MK Dons.
By:
Mariner Paul
When: 15 May 12 19:58
Seen enough. Over 1.5 goals for me.
By:
themover
When: 15 May 12 20:04
GOAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLL 1-0
By:
Mariner Paul
When: 15 May 12 20:04
Get in!
By:
KJPG
When: 15 May 12 20:04
Game over now
By:
Bergkamp93
When: 15 May 12 20:04
1-0
By:
scaredmoney
When: 15 May 12 20:06
differant class isnt he
By:
KJPG
When: 15 May 12 20:07
didn't know he was only 22..
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