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I agree it's a big price but not because of the first leg. I think it's a big price full stop. I don't subscribe to the "Don't have to win the match" scenario either. Any manager and good team for that matter should know that if you have the impetus you should keep attacking. I chalked this up at around 10/11 for Huddersfield so I'm happy to be wrong. I'm in.
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Absolutely, huge price - was up to 2.28 yesterday, my take is that as 0-0 is unlikely (12.5) then match odds are almost like betting on who scores first cos if its the terriers mkd will know its all over, so yes evens or just above seems right to me
also got to be high scoring options, overs, 3-2 etc, even 3-3 if mkd score first |
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I fully agree with green army. It's all about the first goal from a match odds point of view. Reminds me of the west ham Cardiff match which was 0-2 after the first leg. Game over as soon as west ham scored. Very unpredictable if Cardiff had been awarded that early penalty.
It's a similar story tonight. I think Huddersfield will score first and win, but I won't play match odds just in case mk dons score first and Huddersfield are happy with 1-1 (or a nervy 0-1). |
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I won't play match odds just in case mk dons score first and Huddersfield are happy with 1-1 (or a nervy 0-1).
Exactly, and probably the reason why Huddersfield are the price they are. They could comfortably settle for a score that gets them through, and not necessarily winning the match. |
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yeah I see this, I just think if hudderfield score first you have a buoyant terriers side knowing they are thru,& the crowd wanting more v mkd knowing they are out and wanting to go home - I just see it as v unlikely them coming back even for a draw
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bit of a bounce here 2.28 into 2.16 now back at 2.26 not sure why, probably the above argument, tho I cant see it lasting
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Huddersfield will know they need at least one goal, as MK would be
expected to score, most sides do score, and if MK get the first then it would get nervy. It should be interesting, especially if MK get in first. |
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Green Army....I don't agree with your assertion that it's impossible for MK to score 3 (or more) goals if Huddersfield score 1... "on who scores first cos if its the terriers mkd will know its all over", "a buoyant terriers side knowing they are thru,& the crowd wanting more v mkd knowing they are out"
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I suspectgreen army is a Huddersfield sympathiser.
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So am I tonight Kenilworth because (a) I like Jordan Rhodes from his time at Brentford, including helping us win the league and (b) I'd rather face MK next season rather than Huddersfield, and (c) Huddersfield being promoted would be better for my bank than MK going up. Interesting duel in the technical area tonight...Larry Grayson vs a slim version of James Cordern.
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I was thinking he was a Huddersfield supporter. Maybe not.
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Huddersfield's keeper might wear green but that's about all. He's a Plymouth Argyle fan.
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yeah its me wallet supporting the terriers and i agree its not impossible for mkd to score 3, only that heads may go down if huddersfield score first and early
went to leeds road once couldnt stop humming the tune for the hovis ad for a week |
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yeah its me wallet supporting the terriers and i agree its not impossible for mkd to score 3, only that heads may go down if huddersfield score first and early
went to leeds road once couldnt stop humming the tune for the hovis ad for a week |
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hey ken.... is doing odds*probability/100 enough to give you the answer to see if something is value or not? i used the payout indicator and payout share to calculate the probabilities of the outcomes. they all add up to 100% but in essence it's just comparing betfair prices to the average ods of 5 or 6 bookies prices isn't it?
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i got...
Huddersfield = 1.020842 Draw = 0.94465 MK Dons = 0.92574 which suggests huddersfield are the only value for a back but i'd rather lay MK Dons. i want to add my own rating system into it all too to get my own prices to compare as well but i don't want to add too many factors into it. |
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I'm backing under 2.5 at 2.12, if it gets matched.
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huddersfield will outperform the mk dons as they have done in the history on their clashes
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My bet has now been matched so I'm on under 2.5 at 2.12.
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dimebar, I do my own ratings in all 4 leagues, adjust on a match by match basis,
make allowance for ground advantage and come up with corresponding prices, then compare them with other compilers, and take it from there. A simple example is this evenings pairing, Huddersfield v MK Dons 81 and 80 points respectively in the league, I would rate them equally if played on a neutral ground but with it being at Huddersfield, I would have the home side about 2.20, the visitors 3.70 the draw about 3.55. Having said that, this is not a league game and other factors come into it. In the case of, say Huddersfield at 2.20, I compare it with other prices and if there is a big discrepancy, the home side being perhaps 2.0, I would be looking to lay them etc, etc. You need to read up it and there are books about (Pullein ?) which can be helpful. GL. |
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Had a lay of Huddersfield. I think the 1st goal is gunna be vital and MKD have no choice but to go for it. Huddersfield can be very iffy at the back and have never won a play off game at home.
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Anybody got the line ups?
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scared, how many playoff matches have they played at home,
and who is playing tonight who played in the previous ? |
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just using some stats Ken,trying to convince myself rather than anyone else.....good luck with your bet sir
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Huddersfield drift.
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Good luck with yours, young man. For the record, I think those sort
of stats are meaningless for obvious reasons. |
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Mk over priced need to win
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I wouldnt say they were totally meaningless although i do take your point on board.
If MKD get an early goal the support will be thinking "here we go again,been here before" These nerves in the stand are soon transfered onto the field of play. As i said,the 1st goal will be vital. Huddersfield get it,game over. MKD get it,game on. |
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I agree with everything you say to a degree, especially about
the first goal. |
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DONS PLAYING 3 UP FRONT..SOUNDS LIKE IT COULD BE GOALS....LAY OF THE DRAW FOR ME. GOOD LUCK
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Huddersfield for me, good luck all
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Lively start from MK Dons.
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Seen enough. Over 1.5 goals for me.
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GOAAALLLLLLLLLLLLLL 1-0
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Get in!
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Game over now
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1-0
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differant class isnt he
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didn't know he was only 22..
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