Birmingham v Blackpool 4.3 the draw

A fair call GA, and the only way it will drift will
be after a goal is scored. GL.

Hi GA,is this to trade? What price will you look to trade at,if you dont mind me asking? Or a , play it by ear?

Cheers and good luck

hi green army mate i've never traded the draw before pre off. does look high though how confident are you?

the draw price at 4.3 is a little high at the moment, it will come in a couple of points, prior to KO, and then will obviously drift once a goal goes in

martin

right well i'm game then 1k on the draw for a pre off trade and 1k on unders at 2.2 looks high and could drop before kickoff

Draw is an excellent bet on this game tonite at that price......thats where my money is

I am on the draw also. Price is way out of line.

I am trying to find a reason to oppose it,my only thought is...Blackpool may nick it at the death.

Good trading bet.

the prices on this game have moved up and down all day.

another strategy before KO would be to LAY blackpool at the BACK price

regards

martin

its a trade im not really a gambler - it is slightly off my normal type of bet but when I looked at this it jumped off the screen - I have historical stats and if this was a CCC game at approx these win odds the draw would be around 3.9

of course there are other factors at play but looking for an equivalent scenario, rayo vallecano are 1.9 v granada 4.6 on sunday, and they have to win to ensure not being overtaken for the final relegation spot by zaragoza (if I have interpreted this correctly !) - the draw price is 3.75 ! - now Im not even saying it will be even sub 4 but 4.3 looks far too long

I am a gambler Green Army but i think Birmingham will be cautious early on,as a Villa fan i may have bias?Hughton does not set up his teams to 'go for it'.Just a thought.

great shout 4.1-4.2 now

good spot, and sound reasoning. money well earned

thanks matey all traded back now at 4.1

traded out at 4.1 before KO so greened across all 3, 5% return on stake,

well done to all.

there is a website that provides a live feed on these price movements.

regards

martin

Shelling peas!

cheers fallen angel could have hung on for the 4 being taken now but musnt be greedy

i'm green 4.3 into 4.1

martin haven't seen you on here for a while please post on my thread in general betting for this kind of trading and what's the website mate?

btw smithy my website is under construction footballtrader.co.uk - will launch it in august - there'll be an early bird price spotter feature and other stuff - twitter links etc

any ideas welcome

that sounds quality mate i will be the 1st member

well i left £200 on for the draw so -  no i didnt cos im not a gambler and actually im not a fibber

some good stuff coming on league 1 playoffs smithy will post tomorrow

thanks green army turns out the draw was to big i won £45 minus %5 commision cus i'm not a gambler. look forward to the league one stuff no doubt i will be getting on. i have something aswell from my thread from a forumite named andriy.

Sat 12th German Cup Final 19.00
Dortmund v Bayern Munich (played at Berlin)

Unders were the bet last time, but will probably be too short to start with, I’d estimate 2.04-2.06 max based on current bookie prices and with limited scope for the price to come in.

However, whilst I don’t normally like trading match odds, there seems to be a strong case for Dortmund as a lay-to-back at the current odds of about 2.94 (Bayern 2.64); in the last 2 seasons Dortmund have done the double, having the beating tactically of Bayern and a bit of a hold on them, and are simply a better team. In the last league game at Dortmund, Bayern were likewise favourites a couple of days before the game, but then big support came in for Dortmund and they flip-flopped. Asian money doesn’t seem to impact the German games as much as the Premiership where all the interest lies; so I suspect the big German pro money will come in for Dortmund. Also, the fact that Bayern are clearly prioritizing the Champions League a week later, means that they may rest a player or two, in particular I wouldn’t be surprised to see Robben start from the bench.

Frankly i believe Dortmund deserve to be favourites, and in the absence of Bayern being backed regardless by lemming-like Asian L'Pool supporters, i think we'll see the rational German money doing the right thing, and i wouldn't be surprised to see Dortmund going off at maybe 2.7ish.

i would of been proud to write this unfortunately i didn't well certainly be using it though

should say back to lay by the way

Great shout mate,sweating there!Well Done!

For all those who struggle with their betting, this thread is a classic example of one of the key components in successful punting......the price. I myself would not have backed the draw if it had been below 3.4 despite the fact that it was my strongest fancy. Getting a price which you believe doesnt reflect the chance of that event happening and then either backing or laying depending on which side of the price you are in your estimation is so important.

Indeed. If you consistently back prices that are in your favour, over the long term you will profit. Keep the percentages on your side and back prices not winners.

Or something.

great shout green army


surprised the draws go out so much as they do at times  - probably not a 'sexy' bet

have to strongly concur for the following reasons :

1) if it were an event likely to be skewed by the asian markets there would be more than £8.5k on even at this early stage

2) the stats are solidly in Dortmunds favour - ie 8pts ahead - 37 - 30 pts ahead gained away from home (treating this as an away rather than home fixture) and crucially the 4 last fixtures being won by dortmund

3) the CL factor, ok its a week away but it is so important to munich and will be in the back of every players mind going in for a 50/50 - theres a quote from Robben on the Bayern site about being up for this game but wanting to get it out of the way for the big one, and the fact that the final is in Munich means the germans will be desperate to win this and consolodate a place along side real and barca as one of top 3 in europe - ie it appears to be hugely their priority and it is only sensible to assume that this is the way the market thinking will turn

Wholeheartedly £500 @ 2.94 (£250 on & thats my £250 waiting to be matched)

smithy, you say ''turns out the draw was too big''. Fact is, it was too big
even if it hadn't been a draw. Don't judge the merit of a bet on the result.

I don't really understand why anyone would get value, only to give it away moments later? It was still value at 4, arguably even at 3.9.

kenilworth Im sure smithy knows that !

Damom its just the nature of trading, you have some fixed disciplines in order to make profits and build a bank. I used to back value bets but just couldn't get my bank moving. Now I build my bank at an average of 6-7% per week by sticking to the basics and really not gambling in the normal sense of the word. So I will never leave a red of more than a £100 post kick off even when something is screaming out value from the screen.

Its a very very difficult thing to do but you just have do the thing that comes hardest to most people on betfair, ie when you've made your trade and cashed it in, put it in your pocket and walk away. The result of a football match must mean nothing to you once it has kicked off.

And the other thing that you have to do that again is a complete anathema to a dyed in the wool footy fine is to become a prejudice free zone. Your opinion about the result of a football match is irrelevant, only that of those that are laying down the money.

wd GA,Kenilworth etc

Unusual to a see a play off draw price higher than for a regular season match

tobes, for the the first leg i agree, when the draw wouldn't be the end of the world for either side, but once the die is cast as in this instance, well it was vegas or bust for birmingham (2 top class cliches) and the draw was rightly longer than a prem match, its just that it went too far ie 4.3 instead of 4.0

btw ive just exacted a bit of sweet revenge on liverpool, they opened at 2.26 for the swansea game, are now 2.14, no i didnt back and lay that, but i did get £200 on 3-0 at 26/7, now its 23 and should by 20 ko which will claw back nearly half of the loss from tuesday - that was personal

forgot to trade due to youngest needing an extra betime story (usually put up the trade to be taken but like i said, just plain forgot). only had a little on the back of the draw so wasnt too fussed. nice surprise when saw the score.
only made a few extra quid, but the gambler in me felt well fed.

green army
10 May 12 00:49   

kenilworth Im sure smithy knows that !

It didn't read that way to me, but each to
their own.

hi sorry for the confusion what i meant was the draw was too big regardless of the result

smithy, no need to apologise.

cheers ken. well played on your thread "how to lose money betting on football". why have you called it that by the way?

Most people with the best intentions, try to win and say so, but when
they fail, they are harangued on here, so I decided on 'lose' rather
than 'win' putting me in a win-win situation, at least I think it does !
Just a play on words getting people scratching their heads a bit really.

My backed of Blackpool was the best way forward for the trade.

Ken twitter awaits you again....