Why Barca so short?

the draw is huge here, imo.

agreed, barca will win this match though 3-1. Barca always seem to do it against Madrid.

Barca do always tend to beat madrid but 1.66 is a lay price surely?

I think i will lay them, if Barca win I be happy and if they dont I get a bit of money, win win

draw does seem too big, i'd defo have this game being a draw more than 1 in 4 times.

translates as 1.28/1.29 in the DNB market.

tasty lay, imo. look at the scenarios that get you a winning trade:

*real score first
*real keep it 0-0 till say 30mins/half time
*real equalise at more or less any point

Apr 21, 2012 -- 3:41PM, henry14 wrote:

Barca do always tend to beat madrid but 1.66 is a lay price surely?I think i will lay them, if Barca win I be happy and if they dont I get a bit of money, win win

same as me, but with Real Madrid :)

Nice, we are already winners Stevee

I agree. Barca are favourite simply because they are at home but
IMO should not be as short as they are, in fact I rate them no
shorter than 1/1.

I would agree with that Kenilworth's, anything under evens a lay for me. regardless of result anyone backing at 1.66 is crazy

Real Madrid haven't won in 90 mins vs Barca in 12 matches

barca @evens

aaronh, Are the same 11 playing the same 11 this evening ?

thats probably only over like 3 seasons

most of the same players

Barca at evens would be a lump on job

Well, Guardiola's Barca have played 7 league games so far against Madrid, winning 6 and drawing 1. They have won all 3 home league games against them during Guadriola's reign (home games in bold):

FC Barcelona---Real Madrid---2–0
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---2–6
FC Barcelona---Real Madrid---1–0
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---0–2
FC Barcelona---Real Madrid---5–0
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---1–1
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---1-3

There have been cup games too, of course, and Madrid have done a bit better here against Guardiola's team. Over the course of 90 minutes, still 0 wins for Real, with Barca getting 3 wins and 4 draws. Encouragingly for Real, two of the draws were at Camp Nou. However, those two draws came after first leg away victories for Barca -- games that Barca didn't need to win:

Copa del Rey
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---1–0---(a.e.t)
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---1–2
FC Barcelona---Real Madrid---2–2

Super Cup
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---2–2
FC Barcelona---Real Madrid---3–2

Champions League
Real Madrid---FC Barcelona---0–2
FC Barcelona---Real Madrid---1-1

Overall, Guardiola's record against Real (over 90 minute games) is:
P14 W9 D5 L0

and at Camp Nou:
P6 W4 D2 L0

This is why (rightly or wrongly) they are such short odds.

aaronh, that's why they are odds on, bookmakers pricing up,
take into consideration how the public will go, and in this
case they know Joe Public would take the evens therefore go
8/11. Simples.

joe public would back barca at home no matter the price (within reason)

Correct, so why lay 1/1 when 4/6 can be layed ? If bookmakers
get their prices right then the rest will fall into place. It's
the same for punters.

I don't think Barca would be evens at home against anybody, in the league. They have won all of their home games in the league bar one (which they drew) and have won all of their home league games against Madrid under Guardiola.

Madrid are an excellent team, but there is a basis for the short price, imo.

Despite the stats 5/1 about a team 4 points clear is huge imo

Real have won 13 of their 16 away games and sit 4 points
clear of Barca. I'm not saying Barca won't win this match,
just that at 4/6 they are too short.Same as I thought they
were too short at Chelsea, as Arsenal were today. It's all
about prices IMO.

Barca are a few gears better than Real. Anyone got previous prices, sure Barca were 2.1 at Camp Nou vs Real around a year ago. Not sure why since the gap has closed the prices have got soo much wider. Does just go to show how good that 2.1 was.

Apr 21, 2012 -- 3:28PM, viva el presidente! wrote:

the draw is huge here, imo.

Definitely looks a touch of value.

yes when they beat them 5:0

barca was 2.0- 2.1

That was one of the most bizarre prices I've ever seen. A season later and Barca have regressed (all be it a tiny amount) and Real have improved (not massively) and the price has almost halved !

heard Tello and cuenca to start

The "must win" element is factored into the price. Barca rarely fail in must-win games, whoever the opposition. That said, I actually fancy Madrid tonight!

real for me

red card as well defo

RMB, what price do you think Barca should be this evening ?

in the champion league final last year they were 2.06 on neutral ground against Utd in a must win game of similar magnitude...for me 1.65 is a defo lay price

cl final a must win ? it´s more like a not to lose thing

can u back a sending off Inplay?

translates as 1.28/1.29 in the DNB market.

tasty lay, imo. look at the scenarios that get you a winning trade:

*real score first
*real keep it 0-0 till say 30mins/half time
*real equalise at more or less any point

---------

option 1, weighed in

Nice one Viva

Well played layers

lukekelly88
21 Apr 12 18:40 Joined: 06 Dec 11 | Topic/replies: 4,497 | Blogger: lukekelly88's blog
can u back a sending off Inplay?

--------

yes

Layers knew

hOOd • April 21, 2012 5:28 PM BST
Despite the stats 5/1 about a team 4 points clear is huge imo

RM backers too :)

Well played Hood