adelaide v melbourne

I reckon that the u/o market has over reacted and under 2.5 and 3.5 are now too short. (1.85 & 1.34)

Very tough pick tonight. Could be 0-0  or 4-4. Anything can happen, not touching this tonight.

The 6th place team plays away to 3rd in a one off match, 5th plays away to 4th. Now Melbourne need to get a win otherwise they will play away to wellington in the finals and nobody wants that. So a win will get them a bit of a better away match to perth in the finals. Add this to Adelaide's midweek hangover, they played good but will have tired legs and kosmina will take no chances. I have to go for melbourne heart here.

Tip: Melbourne Heart or lay of Adelaide

Yeah having a quick look Adelaide need to at least draw to miss out on wooden spoon and Heart can't afford to lose. Over 1.5 is prob the best bet along with a Adelaide Lay.

Adelaide do look a bit big now at 3.1 but perhaps I have missed some team news that has caused that drift.

Yeah, i was thinking they would be priced 2.80 - 2.90

probabilities are that perth finish top of the 4, meaning if melbourne remain in 3rd they get wellington away
win/draw would suit adelaide, loss/draw for melb would mean they may avoid a difficult away in wellington in exchange for a home game, either they probably have to play perth away sometime in the finals

so playing devils advocate here - 0-0 would suit them both?

Teams that come 5th or 6th don't get a home game. Either way they are playing away

if i were melb a loss is what i'd go for presuming perth beats victory and ccm beat or draw wellington and that the 1 v 4 winner gets home advantage
i have no idea if melb agrees with me though.

1 and 2 play home and away for 2 legs . the rest play a one of match. I get what your saying in that it a win could inadvertently get them an away match at wellington

yes some argie teams been doing that week in week out

yes bj that's half of it, the bit i'm unclear about is how they decide who gets the second game home advantage.

I have played this small for all green but I can tell you what will happen Heart will win because that is my worst result.  This is virtually guaranteed.

Pretty sure its the teams that come 3rd or 4th that gets the 2nd home game.

Oh well if both 3rd and 4th lose , 5th gets the home match

finally found it, yes you're right bj

"The highest placed team to advance to Match D will be considered the ‘home’ team."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2011%E2%80%9312_A-League

Its a rubbish finals system. It awards mediocrity. They are changing it to top 4 next season

Not sure what to do here.  As lachy says, it's very unpredictable given the varying form of Adelaide, wooden spoon, Heart's play off ambitions etc etc.  I would usually say unders, but I can only get 1.83 after 3 mins.

I'll watch and might do something in play depending on how things unfold.

Heart clearly here to win and seem motivated, as do Adelaide (who have made 5 changes, guessing that was the reason behind their drift). MH slightly on top atm.

though finishing 5th will probably get meld an away game to welly and then to perth
while finishing 6th will probably get them an away game to perth and then to welly
I'd take the second option

Mar 23, 2012 -- 10:11AM, polybot wrote:

though finishing 5th will probably get meld an away game to welly and then to perthwhile finishing 6th will probably get them an away game to perth and then to wellyI'd take the second option

Don't think  it matters, both teams clearly going for the win.

Out of the fire into the frying pan for teams 5th and 6th if they win

Heart on top but not creating much.  I took a bit of 0-0 at 12.

Boring match so far

yes it is rather.

Not a single effort on goal worth speaking of in 20 mins.  A Heart goal is needed to wake Adelaide up.

Adelaide playing 10 men behind the ball in preparation for their next ACL match. First shot all game then

That's about 5 times Heart have gifted Adelaide a goal kick with over hit passes.  Comical.

They are overplaying everything tonight.

starting to wake up now.

Shot on target !

looks like a training ground game

Pen adelaide

Pen. Adelaide always seem to get something from set pieces!

10 pens a game if you give those.

1-0

1-0

Yeah, very soft pen

aw craw. was hoping for mht to score first.

joke ref but it was too close to him good lay here adelaide look bad

adelaide no shots on goal, 1-0 up

No-one even appeals.  Really, really poor decision.

Good for my Lay 0-0 though.

2-0 might be possible adilay playing better after the pen.

I dont care, just need one more goal please

As bad a half as you could imagine.  No idea how Adelaide are 1 up but expect them to go on and win now.

adelaide's using reserve players and next game is ten days away, melbourne will be thinking about injuries and maybe reds for next week. should give adelaide an edge in the second half but both sides poor.

Do you think there are more goals in this ?

backed the 3-0 at 50. and 80. but at this rate will be surprised to see another 2 goals from either team, could be a different story second half though

Of course, goals are always possible so we're all only guessing.  But the evidence of the first half was that it was tight, slow, poor quality and with very few chances.  I wouldn't want to be staking big on more goals unless either or both teams come out with a different attitude in the second half.

commentator Mel saying it's very cold in adelaide, at 16 degrees.

scottish summer weather

im out of my lay draw. no loss 10 up if its a draw. can see a late draw, but with the odds moving slowly.

Is the stream on betfair doan for anyone else?

was that the first shot on goal for adelaide?

No way heart have 2 more goals in them

it's almost like adelaide want melbourne to score, maybe they're all on the 1-1

GOAL 1:1

1-1 great goal. Justice to say the least.

seen that comming 4 ages - glad im out of my ltd.

yeahhhhhhhhhh

What's the keeper doing.  Didn't even bother trying to save a shot straight down the middle.

just laid adelaide 1.56 could it be a good start to the day,

Nearly 1-2

smallest bets ive ever made, but pleased im not desperate 4 a goal now.

short of kicking the ball into their own net i don't if adelaide could do anymore to help...

Almost great ball.

Worm on.  That should blunt the Heart attack.

maybe the adelaide players have lumped on a melb win, but the melb players don't want to have to fly to wellington next week

ok i still lost money, but nowhere near as much as i would have had i kept my origional bet going - so im ok with that.

overall a loss for me too, recovered most on the HT result and the draw. strange display from adelaide who weren't really attacking or defending.

knowing this was a meaningless match I went for the draw...basically threw everything i had left on the draw chasing losses from the wta bets .....now I have my money back...time for more wta bets