Football
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For those who read my post from yesterday, sorry about the mistakes in the opening post and thanks for the messages pointing it out.
Somebody asked me to post again from scratch with the right figures, so here it is for those interested.
The origin of the mistake is that I have a very slow plan to grow my bank, that is 0.2% of bank per day as weekly average.
Most days I do more than that, I consider it a bonus.
Screwed the formula up on excel, sorry.
Use your brain, find your own niche, decrease risk, have a lot of discipline... blah blah, we all heard it before, and I agree.
You can show a gambler how to make small steady profits, but hey, that will not be enough.
Most gamblers are looking for that BIG win that rarely comes in.
I trade and make a steady profit everyday.
How?
If you are one of the guys who make $400 or more per day (not that I know of many), this is not for you.
It may sound little, but slow and steady is the way forward in here.
Here is the bit that my gamblers friends doesn't like: I "only" make 1% of my stake per trade.
Most people doesn't even bother with that kind of profits, but when you are trading with $500 to $1000 stake, it really adds up. Trading with this stakes doesn't mean you are risking your entire stake, with my trading strategy I only risk 2% to 4% of STAKE. Less stress, less risk, and the bank grows everyday.
If the trade is successful I win 1% of my STAKE, if it goes wrong then I lose between 2% to 4% of STAKE. Or in other words 0.1% to 0.2% of BANK.
Therefore, for those who messaged me and confuse "stake" and "bank", I only risk between 0.1% and 0.2% of BANK per trade.
It is a tiny liability if you think about it.
You don't need a big bank to trade the way I do it, however you need a huge amount of discipline both to enter and exit the trade, this is where most traders fail.
Risking between 2% and 4% of my STAKE (or 0.1% and 0.2% of BANK) per trade I managed to increase my BANK by 4.29% in the last 10 days, trading 87 markets, that's only 9 markets per day, I could be winning much more if I concentrated full time and with more infraestructure.
This is yesterday:
Market Profit/loss
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Fluminense : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 0.21
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Fluminense : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 3.44
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Fluminense : Over/Under 2.5 goals 5.4
Soccer / Deportivo Quito v Velez : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Deportivo Quito v Velez : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 1.24
Soccer / Deportivo Quito v Velez : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.71
Soccer / Brighton v Cardiff : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Barcelona v Leverkusen : Over/Under 8.5 Goals 5.36
Soccer / Barcelona v Leverkusen : Over/Under 7.5 Goals 4.35
Soccer / Barcelona v Leverkusen : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.3
Soccer / Tottenham v Stevenage : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.11
Soccer / Admira Wacker v KSV Superfund : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 3.01
Soccer / FC Wacker Innsbruck v Red Bull Salzburg : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.08
Soccer / Dinamo Zagreb v Istra : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71
This is 10 days before yesterday:
Market Profit/loss
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 2.55
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Match Odds 2.58
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.58
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.97
Soccer / Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 2.72
Soccer / Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 12.49
Soccer / Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 4.33
Soccer / Evian TG v Marseille : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.62
Soccer / Modena v Padova : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Southend v Crawley Town : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.02
Soccer / Nantes v Le Havre : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / 1860 Munich v St Pauli : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.6
Soccer / AGOVV v FC Oss : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 0.49
Soccer / Rubin Kazan v Spartak Moscow : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 1.89
Soccer / Nacional (Uru) v Cerro : First Half Goals 4.87
Soccer / Nacional (Uru) v Cerro : Half Time 3.3
Soccer / Bologna v Novara : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.71
Soccer / Besiktas v Trabzonspor : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Hoffenheim v FC Koln : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 9.23
Soccer / Hoffenheim v FC Koln : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.08
Soccer / Paris St-G v Ajaccio : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 2.6
Soccer / Ath Bilbao v Sociedad : Over/Under 3.5 Goals -9.62
Soccer / Fulham v Wolves : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 5.26
Soccer / Lecce v Genoa : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.66
Soccer / San Martin de San Juan v Estudiantes : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Independiente v Argentinos Juniors : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 1.57
Soccer / Independiente v Argentinos Juniors : Half Time Score 50.08
Soccer / Setubal v Sp Lisbon : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.74
Soccer / Instituto v Rosario : Match Odds 2.65
Soccer / Dortmund v Mainz : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.49
Soccer / Mallorca v Osasuna : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 3.48
Soccer / Rayo Vallecano v Santander : Match Odds 15.59
Soccer / Man City v Bolton : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 18.48
Soccer / Leverkusen v B Munich : Over/Under 2.5 goals -22.02
Soccer / Liverpool v Arsenal : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / GKS Belchatow v Polonia Warsaw : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 9.41
Soccer / Aachen v Paderborn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.7
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.01
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.26
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.43
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Match Odds 0.92
Soccer / River Plate v Quilmes : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.03
Soccer / River Plate v Quilmes : Match Odds 0.2
Soccer / Benfica v Porto : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 9.25
Soccer / Deportivo v Alcorcon : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.8
Soccer / Blackpool v Hull : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.72
Soccer / Antwerp v Waasland-Beveren : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 1.89
Soccer / Teplice v Slovan Liberec : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.72
Soccer / Austria Lustenau v First Vienna : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.7
Soccer / WAC St Andra v BW Linz : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.92
Soccer / Hartberg v SV Grodig : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.53
Soccer / St Polten v FC Lustenau : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 2.21
Soccer / Duisburg v G Furth : Over/Under 2.5 goals 1.14
Soccer / Naval v Atletico CP : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Orleans v Vannes : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 2.74
Soccer / Sarpsborg v Brann : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 9.24
Soccer / Penarol v Bella Vista : Half Time 19.03
Soccer / Germany v France : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 2.8
Soccer / England v Netherlands : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0
Soccer / Sheff Utd v Scunthorpe : Match Odds 15.01
Soccer / Canada v Armenia : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 2.61
Soccer / Germany U21 v Greece U21 : Correct Score -1.74
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 9.85
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.53
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.66
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Match Odds 250.56
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 2.5 goals -195.35
Soccer / Lanus v San Martin de San Juan : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.07
Soccer / Lanus v San Martin de San Juan : Half Time Score 3.82
Soccer / Braga v Guimaraes : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Braga v Guimaraes : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.08
Soccer / Shrewsbury v Crawley Town : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.12
Soccer / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Aachen : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.52
Soccer / Den Bosch v FC Oss : Correct Score 2.95
Soccer / GKS Belchatow v Gornik Zabrze : Over/Under 3.5 Goals -2.22
Soccer / Desamparados v River Plate : Over/Under 5.5 Goals -0.9
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Newells : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.7
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Newells : Half Time 5.76
Soccer / Defensor Sporting v Nacional (Uru) : First Half Goals 3.44
Soccer / Cerro v Rampla Juniors : Match Odds 14.24
Soccer / Dortmund v Hannover : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 3.2
Soccer / Dortmund v Hannover : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.62
Soccer / Dortmund v Hannover : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 9.14
Soccer / Cardiff v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10.47
Soccer / B Munich v Schalke : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.66
Soccer / Norwich v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.66
Somebody asked me to post again from scratch with the right figures, so here it is for those interested.
The origin of the mistake is that I have a very slow plan to grow my bank, that is 0.2% of bank per day as weekly average.
Most days I do more than that, I consider it a bonus.
Screwed the formula up on excel, sorry.
Use your brain, find your own niche, decrease risk, have a lot of discipline... blah blah, we all heard it before, and I agree.
You can show a gambler how to make small steady profits, but hey, that will not be enough.
Most gamblers are looking for that BIG win that rarely comes in.
I trade and make a steady profit everyday.
How?
If you are one of the guys who make $400 or more per day (not that I know of many), this is not for you.
It may sound little, but slow and steady is the way forward in here.
Here is the bit that my gamblers friends doesn't like: I "only" make 1% of my stake per trade.
Most people doesn't even bother with that kind of profits, but when you are trading with $500 to $1000 stake, it really adds up. Trading with this stakes doesn't mean you are risking your entire stake, with my trading strategy I only risk 2% to 4% of STAKE. Less stress, less risk, and the bank grows everyday.
If the trade is successful I win 1% of my STAKE, if it goes wrong then I lose between 2% to 4% of STAKE. Or in other words 0.1% to 0.2% of BANK.
Therefore, for those who messaged me and confuse "stake" and "bank", I only risk between 0.1% and 0.2% of BANK per trade.
It is a tiny liability if you think about it.
You don't need a big bank to trade the way I do it, however you need a huge amount of discipline both to enter and exit the trade, this is where most traders fail.
Risking between 2% and 4% of my STAKE (or 0.1% and 0.2% of BANK) per trade I managed to increase my BANK by 4.29% in the last 10 days, trading 87 markets, that's only 9 markets per day, I could be winning much more if I concentrated full time and with more infraestructure.
This is yesterday:
Market Profit/loss
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Fluminense : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 0.21
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Fluminense : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 3.44
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Fluminense : Over/Under 2.5 goals 5.4
Soccer / Deportivo Quito v Velez : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Deportivo Quito v Velez : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 1.24
Soccer / Deportivo Quito v Velez : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.71
Soccer / Brighton v Cardiff : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Barcelona v Leverkusen : Over/Under 8.5 Goals 5.36
Soccer / Barcelona v Leverkusen : Over/Under 7.5 Goals 4.35
Soccer / Barcelona v Leverkusen : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.3
Soccer / Tottenham v Stevenage : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.11
Soccer / Admira Wacker v KSV Superfund : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 3.01
Soccer / FC Wacker Innsbruck v Red Bull Salzburg : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.08
Soccer / Dinamo Zagreb v Istra : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71
This is 10 days before yesterday:
Market Profit/loss
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 2.55
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Match Odds 2.58
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.58
Soccer / Penarol v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.97
Soccer / Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 2.72
Soccer / Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 12.49
Soccer / Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 4.33
Soccer / Evian TG v Marseille : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.62
Soccer / Modena v Padova : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Southend v Crawley Town : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.02
Soccer / Nantes v Le Havre : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / 1860 Munich v St Pauli : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.6
Soccer / AGOVV v FC Oss : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 0.49
Soccer / Rubin Kazan v Spartak Moscow : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 1.89
Soccer / Nacional (Uru) v Cerro : First Half Goals 4.87
Soccer / Nacional (Uru) v Cerro : Half Time 3.3
Soccer / Bologna v Novara : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.71
Soccer / Besiktas v Trabzonspor : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Hoffenheim v FC Koln : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 9.23
Soccer / Hoffenheim v FC Koln : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.08
Soccer / Paris St-G v Ajaccio : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 2.6
Soccer / Ath Bilbao v Sociedad : Over/Under 3.5 Goals -9.62
Soccer / Fulham v Wolves : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 5.26
Soccer / Lecce v Genoa : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.66
Soccer / San Martin de San Juan v Estudiantes : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Independiente v Argentinos Juniors : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 1.57
Soccer / Independiente v Argentinos Juniors : Half Time Score 50.08
Soccer / Setubal v Sp Lisbon : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.74
Soccer / Instituto v Rosario : Match Odds 2.65
Soccer / Dortmund v Mainz : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.49
Soccer / Mallorca v Osasuna : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 3.48
Soccer / Rayo Vallecano v Santander : Match Odds 15.59
Soccer / Man City v Bolton : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 18.48
Soccer / Leverkusen v B Munich : Over/Under 2.5 goals -22.02
Soccer / Liverpool v Arsenal : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / GKS Belchatow v Polonia Warsaw : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 9.41
Soccer / Aachen v Paderborn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.7
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.01
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.26
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.43
Soccer / Banfield v Godoy Cruz : Match Odds 0.92
Soccer / River Plate v Quilmes : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.03
Soccer / River Plate v Quilmes : Match Odds 0.2
Soccer / Benfica v Porto : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 9.25
Soccer / Deportivo v Alcorcon : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.8
Soccer / Blackpool v Hull : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.72
Soccer / Antwerp v Waasland-Beveren : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 1.89
Soccer / Teplice v Slovan Liberec : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.72
Soccer / Austria Lustenau v First Vienna : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.7
Soccer / WAC St Andra v BW Linz : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.92
Soccer / Hartberg v SV Grodig : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.53
Soccer / St Polten v FC Lustenau : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 2.21
Soccer / Duisburg v G Furth : Over/Under 2.5 goals 1.14
Soccer / Naval v Atletico CP : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Orleans v Vannes : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 2.74
Soccer / Sarpsborg v Brann : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 9.24
Soccer / Penarol v Bella Vista : Half Time 19.03
Soccer / Germany v France : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 2.8
Soccer / England v Netherlands : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0
Soccer / Sheff Utd v Scunthorpe : Match Odds 15.01
Soccer / Canada v Armenia : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 2.61
Soccer / Germany U21 v Greece U21 : Correct Score -1.74
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 9.85
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.53
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.66
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Match Odds 250.56
Soccer / Brazil v Bosnia : Over/Under 2.5 goals -195.35
Soccer / Lanus v San Martin de San Juan : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 0.07
Soccer / Lanus v San Martin de San Juan : Half Time Score 3.82
Soccer / Braga v Guimaraes : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.71
Soccer / Braga v Guimaraes : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.08
Soccer / Shrewsbury v Crawley Town : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.12
Soccer / Fortuna Dusseldorf v Aachen : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.52
Soccer / Den Bosch v FC Oss : Correct Score 2.95
Soccer / GKS Belchatow v Gornik Zabrze : Over/Under 3.5 Goals -2.22
Soccer / Desamparados v River Plate : Over/Under 5.5 Goals -0.9
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Newells : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.7
Soccer / Boca Juniors v Newells : Half Time 5.76
Soccer / Defensor Sporting v Nacional (Uru) : First Half Goals 3.44
Soccer / Cerro v Rampla Juniors : Match Odds 14.24
Soccer / Dortmund v Hannover : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 3.2
Soccer / Dortmund v Hannover : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.62
Soccer / Dortmund v Hannover : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 9.14
Soccer / Cardiff v Liverpool : Over/Under 2.5 goals 10.47
Soccer / B Munich v Schalke : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.66
Soccer / Norwich v Man Utd : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.66
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Replies: 31
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Hi Trader
New to forum but not too betfair. Put you down as one of my faves as think your on the right lines. So is your average per trade £5 from £500 / £10 from £1000 etc ? When your dealing with spherical objects in any sport combined with human unpredictability, it is nigh on impossible to predict but with trading you are speculating to a v small degree but mainly you are trading on events that will occur in all matches. But as you said 'discipline' is the biggest issue. Can i ask what is the biggest loss you have encountered on a trade and what were the circumstances, ie was a goal scored on overs/unders and instead of taking a small loss did you hang around for equity when another goal increased the loss ? Hope you understand my gist. Cheers Paolo |
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How do you only risk 4% of your stake ? I haven't figured out how to do that yet.
If you lay something at 1.21 and it suddenly drops to 1.08 ? What do you do there ? |
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piry I think I can answer your question. Traders usually back something that is in a winning position, and when it goes against them they are in such a likely market that the odds don't change too much
If the trade is successful I win 1% of my STAKE, if it goes wrong then I lose between 2% to 4% of STAKE. So if you backed something at 1.04 to win £1 then it jumps to 1.08 when the unwanted happens, you then trade out and lose 4% which would be your original profit = -£1 So as long as you make twice the number of successful trades as unsuccessful trades you will break even. Of course traders usually make a high percentage of successful trades based on good timing and experience. |
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Paolo,
Like I said in the opening post, I want less risk, less stress and a slow but steady growing bank. Had my share of the usual mug thing and that's why I'm still in the minus side in here. Yes, I'm speculating that the price will move my way during a short period of time. Fastest being 10 secs, slowest being 5 mins. And yes, it will occur in all matches, but you need liquidity if you want your full stake to get matched. These are fresh ones, with liquid market: Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 9.31 Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 Goals 4.56 The biggest lost I have had when trading like this was: Soccer / Leverkusen v B Munich : Over/Under 2.5 goals -22.02 Goal scored at the wrong moment. But then again, it is trading (involves risk), secret is to limit your risk to a tiny liability, if your trading strategy is good enough you will come ahead (more winning trades than losses). That specific full trading day record showed a profit anyway: Soccer / San Martin de San Juan v Estudiantes : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71 Soccer / Independiente v Argentinos Juniors : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 1.57 Soccer / Independiente v Argentinos Juniors : Half Time Score 50.08 Soccer / Setubal v Sp Lisbon : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.74 Soccer / Instituto v Rosario : Match Odds 2.65 Soccer / Dortmund v Mainz : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.49 Soccer / Mallorca v Osasuna : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 3.48 Soccer / Rayo Vallecano v Santander : Match Odds 15.59 Soccer / Man City v Bolton : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 18.48 Soccer / Leverkusen v B Munich : Over/Under 2.5 goals -22.02 Soccer / Liverpool v Arsenal : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71 Soccer / GKS Belchatow v Polonia Warsaw : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 9.41 Soccer / Aachen v Paderborn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.7 |
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Piry,
loadedgimp's explanation couldn't be better. We back first (in the hope the price will go the right way) and lay later. In the above example, if you back at 1.04 with $100 and it goes wrong, up to 1.08 you exit with a loss -3.70 which is roughly 4% of your initial stake. |
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will you be posting your progress here Trader or what?
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Still don't understand my friend...
If you use a 500 stake and a goal goes against you there'sno way you will loose only 2% to 4%... |
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Billy,
Yes, I might be posting daily progress here, only problem is I will be traveling to a country where BF is forbidden, so I don't think I will be able to post then. pjbfs, Read post of 08 Mar 12 21:43 Can't tell you exactly when, how and why I trade certain markets. Need to keep my edge  |
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I'm calling it a day.
That was today: Market Profit/loss Soccer / Godoy Cruz v Atletico Nacional : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 2.03 Soccer / Godoy Cruz v Atletico Nacional : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.11 Soccer / Flamengo v Emelec : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 1.43 Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 5.92 Soccer / Man Utd v Ath Bilbao : Half Time 4.64 Soccer / Valencia v PSV : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.34 Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 9.31 Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.56 Soccer / Sp Lisbon v Man City : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 0.49 |
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Hey Trader11, I saw in version 1 of this thread people referring to your "lay thread". Had a quick look but couldn't see it. You have a link? Would be interested to see it.
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Loadedgimp/Trader
First of all good thread. Like I have said before I have started doing a similar thing. However one thing which I am not quite sure of is... If he is backing at 1.04 to win £1 wouldn't that mean he is letting it ride till the end of the match? So for every loss at 1.08 (-£1) he can make it up again with one win? If he is backing at 1.04 to trade at 1.03 that would only win 25p so when if the odds go against him out to 1.08 he has to lose £1 meaning it will take another 4 wins to make up for one loss It would help to see a couple of odds backed at/odds layed at as that is the bottom line of what you are doing . I fully understand this may be more than you are willing to share. but it would help  |
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Pretty clear here that this is a melatone system in action
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back under 1.5 at 0-0, after goal back under 2.5 and so on, if 16 goals are scored your in trouble but do have the adv of a 1 goal buffer to enable you to scratch a trade that is looking risky
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mctash the laying thread will be buried in the general betting archives
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Must say i cant see how a 1.04 can only go to 1.08
 I know its only an example but still  |
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Tash, you can find the laying thread on general betting forum, go to page 2 and scroll down a bit, it is called My Football Lays.
scaramanga, if you back at 1.04 with $100 and lay at 1.03 you make $0.92 after commission. That is roughly 1% of your stake. If it happens that you have to exit the trade at 1.08 then you lose $3.70, roughly 4% of stake. That was just an example that loadedgimp explained. It doesn't means that that is exactly what I do. I already said that I tarde for 1 tick only. Sorry, but like I said before, can't tell you exactly when, how and why I trade certain markets. Need to keep my edge. Unless of course you want to drop me a few quid and maybe then I can teach you what to do...  (kidding).BTTS, You need to find the right markets and you need timing. Barcelona v Leverkusen under 6.5 and 7.5 was an example. |
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I think I'm calling it a day, about $75 for the day. Maybe a couple more late trades.
Market Profit/loss Soccer / Colon v Newells : Match Odds 23.39 Soccer / Napoli v Cagliari : Over/Under 8.5 Goals 0.57 Soccer / Napoli v Cagliari : Over/Under 7.5 Goals 4.41 Soccer / Chievo v Inter : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.29 Soccer / Stuttgart v Kaiserslautern : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 3.82 Soccer / Angers v Laval : Over/Under 2.5 goals 1.84 Soccer / Ajaccio v Marseille : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.4 Soccer / Ajaccio v Marseille : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.71 Soccer / Ankaragucu v Fenerbahce : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 5.64 Soccer / Union Berlin v Duisburg : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71 Soccer / Paderborn v Bochum : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.06 Soccer / G Furth v Aachen : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 2.77 Soccer / Godoy Cruz v Atletico Nacional : Match Odds 18.98 |
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unreal trader
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FFS smithy, I read the other trading thread and you are doing incredibly well yourself with the pre match trading, congrats, not easy task.
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That was a prolific saturday, hopefully a profitable sunday today.
Soccer / Porto v Academica : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 5.07 Soccer / Porto v Academica : Over/Under 2.5 goals 0.89 Soccer / Palermo v Roma : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 3.07 Soccer / Gijon v Sevilla : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 1.32 Soccer / Cerro v Rentistas : Match Odds 0.83 Soccer / Lyon v Lille : Over/Under 2.5 goals 2.6 Soccer / Braga v Leiria : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.16 Soccer / Valenciennes v St Etienne : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 0.23 Soccer / Cerro v Rentistas : Half Time 7.71 Soccer / Bristol City v Cardiff : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 9.41 Soccer / Malaga v Levante : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 4.71 Soccer / Sociedad v Zaragoza : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 4.61 Soccer / Aston Villa v Fulham : Over/Under 2.5 goals 7.28 Soccer / Chelsea v Stoke : Over/Under 2.5 goals 4.71 Soccer / Wolves v Blackburn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 4.71 Soccer / Mainz v Nurnberg : Over/Under 5.5 Goals 0.16 Soccer / Wolfsburg v Leverkusen : Over/Under 6.5 Goals 4.71 Soccer / Bolton v QPR : Over/Under 4.5 Goals 14.07 Soccer / Coventry v Birmingham : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 2.27 Soccer / Estudiantes v Lanus : Over/Under 1.5 Goals 9.53 Soccer / Estudiantes v Lanus : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 1.07 Soccer / Racing v Nacional (Uru) : Match Odds -1.8 Soccer / Racing v Nacional (Uru) : Over/Under 2.5 goals 3.15 Soccer / Racing v Nacional (Uru) : Over/Under 3.5 Goals 9.85 |
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this is incredible trader. i think we should exchange systems pal. i would love to add this system to my portfolio.
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i dont see how this adds up, £500/1000 trades... u look like u trade the goals market how are you only risking 2/4 % per trade.. if theres a goal there is more than a 4 tick swing...
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One sentence interested me on this thread "my account is still showing a lifetime loss on here" And remember he readily admits he bets in hundreds at a time.
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smithy, I don't think I'm able to do what you do so successfully.
king, not always. For example if you do what other guys do, backing under 6.5 goals at 1.02 to lay at 1.01 and goal is scored it will not drift that much. no moves, everybody is a winner on here... except me, I admit it, I'm on a loss for the past 5 years. Hopefully that will change soon with trading. Trading with hundreds or trading with pennies doesn't make a difference, it is all about % and risk management. |
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Very difficult to be successfull on here I agree, with only a small minority of gamblers making a profit in the long term. Its just the legitimacy of a losing gambler giving betting advice on the forum I am questioning, is there any value in it?
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Agreed with your first sentence, very difficult.
I wouldn't call myself a gambler at all. I hate gambling, I hate the risk. Not for me. The only piece of advice is the title of the thread. Maybe you are right, maybe no value at all, but maybe it will help many newbies to avoid gambling and try trading in whatever form or strategy they may like. |
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hi trader i will be attempting this in the near future. aswell as my success with the pre off bets could be a tidy combination. is it ok if i pm you for some advice mate?
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Its my belief that most people on here who are successfull long term have fast pictures or alternaely have identified some way of using the exchange in such a way it could be considered corrupt, maybe that's the wrong word, what I am trying to say is they've found a method of getting their bets on (in play)quicker than others by exploiting weaknesses in the exchanges software. Lastly people who are putting on thousands of bets a day to gain a tiny percentage on each bet.
The people with no fast pictures or trading advantages, who put on a normal amount of bets, who win on the exchange in the long term is tiny in my opinion. |
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I disagree. It has nothing to do with fast pictures or corruption or number of bets.
As far as making consistent profits from trading goes I think it has a lot to do with personality. It helps to be a very patient and very observant person. You have to get excited by the maths a little . Like seeing odds of 1.93 change down to 1.85 and being very interested to work out why / how this happens and seeing repeat patterns of odds change , spotting gaps in back/lay odds that can be exploited. The bottom line is trading is all about buying high and selling low ( or laying low and backing high). If you are of the patient and observant nature you will spot lots of opportunities/markets to do this in either prematch or inplay. I think most people don't have this personality or aren't interested in this. |
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Yes you need to be very patient, observant and always learning including from your mistakes. If your in to much of a rush to make big money at first you will most probably lose and then find it hard not to chase. I would say the most important quality is patience,start off small learn and increase your knowledge,confidence and gradually stakes.
I reckon most people on here lose first and then continue to lose but some battle hard to turn it around and become winners. They learn from their mistakes and losing hard earned money can be a good lesson, provide motivation and sharpen the concentration. Being more patient, selective and allowing myself time to learn has helped me no end. Before I used to rush in fearing I would miss a chance to make money, now I don't because even if I do miss something I know there will be plenty more good chances to increase the bank. If you have lost cash its only natural to want to win it back fast its hard but just resist the temptation to chase, chill out and take your time and I believe you will have a far greater chance of winning in the future. |
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Very wise words there from scaramanga and zigzager, very sensible stuff from both, I agree. However I also agree with no moves, he is somewhat right on what he says, example being the spanish hooverers. And it is clear that there is people with faster pictures on horse racing, tennis, football, whatever, and that is an edge that can not be beaten.
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