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kenilworth
20 Feb 12 23:04
Joined:
Date Joined: 04 Nov 05
| Topic/replies: 15,627 | Blogger: kenilworth's blog
Impatience ?
Expect too much ?
Must have a bet ?
Lack of discipline ?
What ?
Pause Switch to Standard View Why do most punters lose ?
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Report pipunch February 25, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
It's impossible to make consistently on here if you're betting in my opinion.

Trading however is another matter. Some are proving that it is do-able, although at what point would you rule out 'lucky streaks' etc? For instance i have been running at a very decent profit which is MILES about 6-7% and even well above 15%, and i've only been properly active on here since October.

So at what point do you rule out streaks and say 'yeah, this guy knows his stuff and can actually turn a profit doing this'?
Report last-one-let-me-down February 25, 2012 10:19 PM GMT
Re pipunch..The moment your luck runs out! On a serious note though what type of trading do you do?
Report boyce February 25, 2012 10:31 PM GMT
im on over 2.5 in the espanyol v levante,,currently 0-1 but because im on such a bad run it WILL end 0-1,0-2 or 1-1
Report Mr.Angry February 25, 2012 10:35 PM GMT
and i've only been properly active on here since October.

If you're still making those returns by next October you're doing well.
If you're still making those returns the following October I will be amazed.
Do it for 8 years and you've hit the big time.
Report boyce February 25, 2012 10:38 PM GMT
i backed over 2.5 in a morning game,,it ended 1-1..if i asked/told 100 people who watched the game that i put money on over 2.5 then they would all reply the same"thats unlucky"if it ended 0-0 and the teams were regulary poor scorers then they would all say "thats a bad selection,,,when you are so close in nearly every race and match then the deciding factor is luck,,whaterever luck is
Report Danwil February 25, 2012 10:45 PM GMT
I agree with the idea with the idea of luck - but bets based on sound statistical research should over a number of bets counteract luck.
Report buzzer February 25, 2012 10:50 PM GMT
You got lucky there boyce
Report last-one-let-me-down February 25, 2012 10:54 PM GMT
There is definitely such thing as good luck or bad luck runs as we have all had them.However discipline(that word again) can reduce losses even in the worst runs.Having said that it is discipline that often goes out the window in a losing run as emotions tend to run higher after losses.
Report boyce February 25, 2012 10:57 PM GMT
HappyHappyHappyHappy i dont belive it over 2.5,,,i was starting to think that ishould post every selection because you will see my results and it is beyond belief no one believes you can have such bad luck..i watched an horizon episode on Reality. bad luck does make you think there is a superior force doing it to you..maybe the reality only exits in my world so in posting it will exist in the world of others and since my luck is beyond reality maybe the bad luck that people would never believe without seeing it beforehand will not exist anymore,,,i sound weird ,i know but my luck has been sosososos bad,,im getting despertate its worth a try
Report boyce February 25, 2012 11:02 PM GMT
i know we cant win everytime but when you have 30/40 2nds without a winner and 50%+ beaten less than 1/2 length then that is luck and nothing else because what am i doing wrong if it comes down to fine fine margins
Report pipunch February 25, 2012 11:06 PM GMT
Well using my system and my knowledge of European football i actually lost 2 out of 5 games today and still made a good profit which is only about £12 less than i would have gotten for a days work at the job i quit in December, and i didn't have to leave my house to do it.

I think if it's bringing in money which is close or equivalent to a full time job then noone can really say it doesn't work. Will it make you rich? Doubtful. Half decent living or a very good top up to your full time job? Absolutely. Anyone saying it can't be done is saying it because THEY can't do it.

My predictions/games i trade on are based on solid stats and foundations that have been proven over the last 25 years in certain football leagues, so all i need is for the trends to continue to average out and i can't possible lose money - i've done my calculations, it's IMPOSSIBLE for me to go bust. People will say i'm full of it or whatever and that's fine, i'm just throwing my personal experience out there for people.
Report last-one-let-me-down February 25, 2012 11:10 PM GMT
I assume your bets centre around goals scored?
Report Ice King February 25, 2012 11:12 PM GMT
agree pipunch
betting for top-up income isn't as hard people believe, betting as a pro to make a living is altogether different and brings a lot of pressure as a reliable income just isn't there to back you up when the inevitable losing runs come
Report yummy February 25, 2012 11:14 PM GMT
odds
Report loadedgimp February 25, 2012 11:14 PM GMT
boyce as far as I can tell from your posts you are not betting well.  If you lost by 1 goal what does that tell you?  You are betting a) In a very risky manner and b) With a poor pick  Why?  If I was to back over 2.5 I would hope to see at least 4 goals.  I would not put a bet on a market which could go either way.
Your luck is what you make of it, if you think you have bad luck then stop for a day, get some fresh air good sleep and come back in a more positive manner.  Under 2.5 should only be bet on in a low scoring/slow starting game when you believe the outcome will be 0-0 or 1-0.  Over 2.5 should be used when teams are mismatched and unquoted is likely or both defences are poor.

inevitable losing runs come - careful with this mindset Ice King, it can cause losing runs if you believe in that.  I guarantee you if you lose a few bets in a row and stop for the day/few hours then you are less likely to make more losing bets.
Report Ice King February 25, 2012 11:21 PM GMT
That isn't my mindset, I accept loses as part of winning. Today for instance I was up £300 earlier then swung
to £200 down but just kept doing what I do and now -£24 for the day. I expect that to happen but change nothing in the way I do things.  Still up £1k on the week cause I don't panic when things go wrong.
Report loadedgimp February 25, 2012 11:23 PM GMT
My bad, £1k in a week is massive.  You lost £500 today and you are on a Why do most punters lose thread?  Apt, very apt.  What are you doing with your 1k this week?
Report Ice King February 25, 2012 11:30 PM GMT
Not sure what I will use it for. usually take half as profit and build the bank with the rest. i always let my bank grow before I raise my stakes. Over staking ones bank is the road to ruin. All punters lose bets eventually, just depends on what odds you play.
Report boyce February 25, 2012 11:46 PM GMT
ive done jaguares v tescos over 2.5 ,,stats point that there is a good chance of 4 goals,,its 1-0 but plenty of chances being missed ,,bad luck means this will end unders
Report daithi1978 February 25, 2012 11:47 PM GMT
not all markets allow you to cash out. Why is this?
Report loadedgimp February 25, 2012 11:51 PM GMT
daithi all markets allow you to cash out.  If you back at x odds and then lay at lower than those odds that is cashing out.  Give me a minute boyce, I will find out for you.
Report boyce February 25, 2012 11:51 PM GMT
the game is a mismatch and the away team just missed a sitter,,if that goes in 1-1 then over 2.5 is very highly likely given the superiorty of jaguares,,just one missed sitter is not enough to say its bad luck but if or my case when there will be 7/8 great chances missed then that is only bad luck,,,,,,,,
Report pipunch February 25, 2012 11:53 PM GMT
You're trying to set yourself up for a failure so you don't lose face if your bet doesn't come in by the looks of it.
Report daithi1978 February 25, 2012 11:54 PM GMT
so if i bet 25 quid on a home win at half time and start to feel nervous i can lay the home team to cash out is that right?
Report pipunch February 25, 2012 11:56 PM GMT
daithi i wouldn't bet on anything until you're extremely comfortable with what you're doing first.

And i would never 'cash out' the bet, they always offer you less than you could be getting by backing/laying the opposite outcome manually.
Report Jinkie February 25, 2012 11:56 PM GMT
"ive done jaguares v tescos over 2.5 ,,stats point that there is a good chance of 4 goals,,its 1-0 but plenty of chances being missed ,,bad luck means this will end unders "


I also did that earlier and have already greened out.

But if the game ends 1-0 I suppose I could blame luck when the reality is I couldn't name one player in either team and am ignoring all the factors that can affect a game in favour of stats and stats alone.
Report loadedgimp February 25, 2012 11:58 PM GMT
Jaguares Played 7 Scored 8 Conceded 10 last 5 games 1/3/0/0/0 the 3 was against Queretaro who have conceded 13 goals in 7 games.
Tecos Played 7 Scored 5 Conceded 11 last 5 games 2/0/0/1/1

Please explain how you came to the 4 goals expected when Jag and Tecos have only managed 3 4 goal games out of 14 between them?  Both in poor form currently and average just over 2 goal games each (as in 1-1 so half of those may not be the teams involved scoring)
Report boyce February 25, 2012 11:59 PM GMT
yes i know ,as i said earlier my luck is unbelievable so by posting hopefully reality will change,,
Report daithi1978 February 26, 2012 12:02 AM GMT
thank you pipunch.....i win a lot but bet small therefore i win small but i win at least 85% of the bets i place, im down today because i changed my system and chased higher odds with a higher stake completely against my own system, i just cleaned out my bank on a stupid half time bet, i didnt even leave cash in the bank to lay...i feel pretty dumb right now
Report pipunch February 26, 2012 12:02 AM GMT
Well....i hate to say it, but it's not luck, it's just football, these things happen.

Betting on goals isn't exactly the safest bet. You'd be better trading those markets instead of straight betting them and taking a smaller profit.
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 12:03 AM GMT
Half time results
Jag Played 7 Scored 2 Conceded 3
Tecos Played 7 Scored 3 Conceded 6

Above stats point to Jag unlikely to score in first half and unlikely to concede to Tecos but could get 1 first half as Tecos have conceded 1 per game.  HT 1-0 is the most likely result, next most likely was 0-0 and if you were lucky (if there is such a thing) a 1-1 or 2-0 could have been possible.
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 12:04 AM GMT
If I was backing over 2.5 I would expect to see at least Played 7 Scored 6 Conceded 5 to have a chance.
Report boyce February 26, 2012 12:05 AM GMT
aguares     3-0     Queretaro
Jaguares     0-1     Puebla
Jaguares     3-1     Guadalajara
Jaguares     2-2     Santos Laguna
Jaguares     4-0     Pumas UNAM
Jaguares     3-1     San Luis

last six homes 5 occassions over 2.5
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 12:06 AM GMT
You still there boyce? 5 goals scored out of 14 games and 9 conceded out of 14 means the odds will most likely go against over 2.5 no?  Also it's early in the season but in this league only 2 games have seen more than 4 goals....You are looking at previous results which do not include the two teams playing each other.
Report duffyg February 26, 2012 12:06 AM GMT
this is my philosophy,i will back spurs tomorrow cos i think they,ll win,its only my opinion and i might well be wrong but i think they are value.i will not green out if they score first cos i think they,ll win.i will bet what i can afford so wont be too upset if they dont.i refuse to watch it with my laptop on my knee hoping not to lose or win as much as my original bet.i will never make a living from gambling but will enjoy a match between two teams i otherwise couldnt give a t0ss about.
Report pipunch February 26, 2012 12:07 AM GMT
What i did daith when i first started was watch a few dozen games and see how the odds change depending on what happens. Then click the odds and place your bet but don't submit it. Then get the opposite odds up and put in the odds which you think will be available once the event has happened and see what the difference is. Before i get involved with any trade personally i know what my possible loss is because i calculate what my stake at my 'get out' odds would be and the average return in profit if the game goes my way.
Report boyce February 26, 2012 12:08 AM GMT
Pachuca     2-0     Estudiantes Tecos
Tigres     2-1     Estudiantes Tecos
Toluca     3-1     Estudiantes Tecos
Queretaro     3-0     Estudiantes Tecos
Puebla     2-1     Estudiantes Tecos
Guadalajara     5-2     Estudiantes

last 6 aways over 2.5 on 5 occassions
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 12:09 AM GMT
I look at tecos results, 0/1/1/0/1/2  that is not good for an overs backer.
Report daithi1978 February 26, 2012 12:13 AM GMT
@pipunch i spend a few hours watching games, using websites for live scores, stats, information anything that will help me win, watching the game live is the most important thing i think, if i cant find a feed i dont back on it, of course i broke my own rules tonight and messed up
Report boyce February 26, 2012 12:15 AM GMT
they have lost their last 6 away games scoring in four of those 6 which means the home team has scored at least 2
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 12:22 AM GMT
It's a 50/50 mate, not a smart bet.  You can't look at the last 5/6 results of each team and decide how many goals will come. Nothing you said makes it a better bet unfortunately.  So many factors affect these games, you are hoping for a bet, unless the odds make this type of bet sustainable then you will need a lot of luck.  If you had bet under 2.5 and tried winning 50% of your stake, if a goal comes then at least you get another 2 chances.  Your way - a goal will bring the odds back to starting price IF it comes soon enough...I spent too long here I must go.
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 12:26 AM GMT
A good bet is the 2-1 game Aldosovi, 3 goals in 12 minutes = great odds on under 6.5 after the 3rd went in.  It would be HIGHLY LIKELY to trade lower and you have 4 chances before you lose.  I wish you better luck in the future boyce, and I reckon 2-0 Jag FT, possibly 3-0
Report Carsten19 February 26, 2012 12:41 AM GMT
comission
Report pipunch February 26, 2012 12:42 AM GMT
On a side note, Tigres looking value for any backers out there in the upcoming Mexican game.
Report Ice King February 26, 2012 12:51 AM GMT
I reckon your opinion is no more valid than anyone else's

1-0 Jag FT


loadedgimp
26 Feb 12 00:26 Joined: 16 Mar 11 | Topic/replies: 4,724 | Blogger: loadedgimp's blog
A good bet is the 2-1 game Aldosovi, 3 goals in 12 minutes = great odds on under 6.5 after the 3rd went in.  It would be HIGHLY LIKELY to trade lower and you have 4 chances before you lose.  I wish you better luck in the future boyce, and I reckon 2-0 Jag FT, possibly 3-0
Report boyce February 26, 2012 1:06 AM GMT
argentos v san lorenzo im on under 1.5,,judhing by the way the game has started it looks a 0-0 ft,,,in all my overs bets there have been sitters,goal line clearances and supers saves,,i bet the 1st chance in this slips through the gk fingers
Report pipunch February 26, 2012 1:11 AM GMT
Stop moaning. Either take your 'luck' swings like a man or don't bet.
Report MiLiTo_22 February 26, 2012 1:12 AM GMT
I had a great Saturday but now I get to sleep on a loss cause of a Colombia drugsters fixed match.

Once Caldas v Millionarios 0-0 with a penalty missed. So pissed off!
Report Ice King February 26, 2012 1:27 AM GMT
guess what it lost

loadedgimp
26 Feb 12 00:26 Joined: 16 Mar 11 | Topic/replies: 4,724 | Blogger: loadedgimp's blog
A good bet is the 2-1 game Aldosovi, 3 goals in 12 minutes = great odds on under 6.5 after the 3rd went in.  It would be HIGHLY LIKELY to trade lower and you have 4 chances before you lose.  I wish you better luck in the future boyce, and I reckon 2-0 Jag FT, possibly 3-0
Report Cooee February 26, 2012 2:02 AM GMT
boyce, you clearly have no confidence in your system, so why do you continue to put money on it. It's obviously making you very depressed.

We do occasionally get runs of incredibly bad luck. However, the latter are most often attributed to us chasing losses and jumping onto matches we shouldn't be at prices we shouldn't be taking. I'd suggest this is almost certainly your problem at the moment. So you need to tighten up your selection process.

Put away the betting account for now, and find a site with lots and lots of statistics from previous seasons. (http://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php, to give one example.)  Go through as many past games as you can and try and predict how few or how many goals there'll be in each match, based on the results leading up to that game.  You'll probably spend the time more profitably doing that rather than whimpering miserably about your latest piece of 'bad luck'.
Report pipunch February 26, 2012 2:11 AM GMT
Agreed. Also, justifying what could well be a bad bet by saying 'well all the other times i did it the opposite happened' is the slippery slope to dolesville.
Report pipunch February 26, 2012 2:16 AM GMT
boyce i've just turned that game off but you have been lucky up to now, should easily be 1-1 at least so take the good luck with the bad!
Report boyce February 26, 2012 2:26 AM GMT
exactly luck luck luck decides the outcome every time,,,if you had 20 games where you done over 1.5 in a game like that then you would be very unlucky,,,
Report boyce February 26, 2012 2:35 AM GMT
anyway im on a holiday with what little money i have left(i have serioulsy lost loadsa money over the last4/5 months)and when i return thats it i quit,,the only  bets i plan to do are when im in the pub watching a live game and doing super heinz during chelthenham/royal ascot and so,,,ive tried to make a living from this but i have to accept that yes i probably am useless or more likely i am fecking CURSED,,good luck to everyone adios ,,im outa here forever
Report Trevh February 26, 2012 2:41 AM GMT
Just posting this again for Boyce : Luck always evens out over the long run, but many punters do actually believe that they're unlucky, which reveals that they have a negative attitude and are unlikely to succeed. There is no logic in believing in luck. Luck shouldn't even come into your mindset, it plays a part in individual results but not over the long haul, and the long haul is what matters.
Report boyce February 26, 2012 2:56 AM GMT
Trevh     26 Feb 12 02:41

it plays a part in individual results but not over the long haul, and the long haul is what matters.,,,,

nearly every individual result ive been unlucky and those individual results come one after another,race after race,match after match over a long haul,,,,,if you spun a coin once a day for year there is nothing to say it cant be heads everyday,,well this my kind of luck because if i did this and everyday called heads it would land tails 364 times in row,,,,,,,,so basically im cursed
Report boyce February 26, 2012 2:56 AM GMT
Trevh     26 Feb 12 02:41

it plays a part in individual results but not over the long haul, and the long haul is what matters.,,,,

nearly every individual result ive been unlucky and those individual results come one after another,race after race,match after match over a long haul,,,,,if you spun a coin once a day for year there is nothing to say it cant be heads everyday,,well this my kind of luck because if i did this and everyday called heads it would land tails 364 times in row,,,,,,,,so basically im cursed
Report Cooee February 26, 2012 3:05 AM GMT
What a pathetic attitude!     You're right about one thing boyce. You're definitely better off out of it. This game will eat somebody like you for breakfast and still have room for a grapefruit or two.
Report Mr.Angry February 26, 2012 8:01 AM GMT
nearly every individual result ive been unlucky and those individual results come one after another,race after race,match after match over a long haul,,,,,if you spun a coin once a day for year there is nothing to say it cant be heads everyday,,well this my kind of luck because if i did this and everyday called heads it would land tails 364 times in row,,,,,,,,so basically im cursed

That is unlucky boyce.  And this is why I said that one of the main factors for people losing is the lack of bank management/lack of bank.  An extended losing run can be crippling.  Even if you have a positive expectation on those bets, eventually you need some of the to win else you'll go bust waiting.  This is how casinos make most of their money - they know the punter will go bust before they do.

And everyone interested in winning long-term should pay heed to that.  Using your current staking, what is the maximum losing run you can take before you are effectively "wiped out".  Now you may say "I use a percentage staking plan", so only using say 5% of your bank.  That's all very good if you have, say, £10K.  Even then an unlucky run of 50 would have you effectively wiped out (down to £800).  Coming back from that could take a long time just to return to the previous bank, let alone make a profit with which to pay the mortgage and feed the kids. Throw in to that the human ego, and betting £37 a pop when you're used to betting £500 is very very difficult to swallow.  This leads to using bigger stakes than the 5% - otherwise known as overstaking and chasing.


Bookmakers and casinos win because they have a) positive expectation, b) huge resources which can absorb lengthy "unlucky" results. Interestingly, do you remember the story of that chap who sold all of his life possessions (£100K) and went to America to gamble it all on one spin of the roulette and ?  What you may not remember is the difficulty the production crew had in finding a casino willing to take the bet.  Why?  Because they are not gamblers over the short term.  Had the crew said: "he will bet his £100K continuously for 20 bets" they would have snapped his hand off.

IT CANNOT BE DONE
Report Mr.Angry February 26, 2012 8:06 AM GMT
pipunch:
Well using my system and my knowledge of European football i actually lost 2 out of 5 games today and still made a good profit which is only about £12 less than i would have gotten for a days work at the job i quit in December, and i didn't have to leave my house to do it.

I think if it's bringing in money which is close or equivalent to a full time job then noone can really say it doesn't work. Will it make you rich? Doubtful. Half decent living or a very good top up to your full time job? Absolutely. Anyone saying it can't be done is saying it because THEY can't do it.

My predictions/games i trade on are based on solid stats and foundations that have been proven over the last 25 years in certain football leagues, so all i need is for the trends to continue to average out and i can't possible lose money - i've done my calculations, it's IMPOSSIBLE for me to go bust. People will say i'm full of it or whatever and that's fine, i'm just throwing my personal experience out there for people.


Do you know how many people have come on to this forum saying exactly the same thing, bleating about their supreme skills for 6 months, then quietly withdraw with their egos quashed silenced forever?  I've certainly lost count.

Now you're here making all the same egotistical statement.  And we'll have to suffer your ego for another 6 months until you've gone "pop."  The bubble will burst, but no-one will hear it.
Report comingupthehill February 26, 2012 8:09 AM GMT
too many people have negative ,defeatists attitudes to what in effect is a minor problem,if your staking plan and form study is well thought through - your day will come - it as too ,by the same logic the casinos win - then your turn of the spin will come,

seperate to this logical reasoning,theres the hope in your heart attitude to betting,the form study is a process of achievment,purpose,and interest.

even if i knew i couldnt win - i d still go through the process ,just to get this aspect of betting out of it.
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 8:29 AM GMT
I don't believe in stats and form to make my profit, which is why I crawl along at a snail's pace but consistent steady profits along with stake sizes of 1% to 20% depending on risk and confidence I can win everyday.

Soccer / Tijuana v Toluca : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 03:00     26-Feb-12 04:54    0.32
Soccer / Tijuana v Toluca : Over/Under 4.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 03:00     26-Feb-12 04:54    0.40
Soccer / Tijuana v Toluca : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 03:00     26-Feb-12 04:54    0.19
Soccer / Atlante v CF America : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 03:00     26-Feb-12 04:53    0.75
Soccer / Atlante v CF America : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 03:00     26-Feb-12 04:53    0.14
Soccer / Celaya v Estudiantes de Altamira : Over/Under 2.5 goals     26-Feb-12 02:45     26-Feb-12 04:48    0.30
Soccer / Celaya v Estudiantes de Altamira : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 02:45     26-Feb-12 04:48    0.19
Soccer / Pachuca v Tigres : Half Time/Full Time     26-Feb-12 01:00     26-Feb-12 02:55    -2.00
Soccer / Pachuca v Tigres : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 01:00     26-Feb-12 02:55    0.94
Soccer / Pachuca v Tigres : Over/Under 2.5 goals     26-Feb-12 01:00     26-Feb-12 02:55    0.21
Soccer / Pachuca v Tigres : Match Odds     26-Feb-12 01:00     26-Feb-12 02:55    2.57
Soccer / Pachuca v Tigres : Over/Under 1.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 01:00     26-Feb-12 02:54    0.00
Soccer / San Luis v Atlas : Over/Under 2.5 goals     26-Feb-12 01:00     26-Feb-12 02:51    0.48
Soccer / Expreso Rojo v Uni Autonoma del Caribe : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 00:30     26-Feb-12 02:26    0.68
Soccer / Expreso Rojo v Uni Autonoma del Caribe : Match Odds     26-Feb-12 00:30     26-Feb-12 02:25    2.90
Soccer / Argentinos Juniors v San Lorenzo : Over/Under 4.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 00:30     26-Feb-12 02:21    0.10
Soccer / Argentinos Juniors v San Lorenzo : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 00:30     26-Feb-12 02:21    0.06
Soccer / Expreso Rojo v Uni Autonoma del Caribe : Over/Under 2.5 goals     26-Feb-12 00:30     26-Feb-12 02:18    1.26
Soccer / Aldosivi v Gimnasia Jujuy : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 23:59     26-Feb-12 01:23    -3.00
Soccer / Expreso Rojo v Uni Autonoma del Caribe : Half Time     26-Feb-12 00:30     26-Feb-12 01:22    0.10
Soccer / Monterrey v Puebla : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 23:00     26-Feb-12 00:54    0.16
Soccer / Monterrey v Puebla : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 23:00     26-Feb-12 00:54    0.19
Soccer / Jaguares v Estudiantes Tecos : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 23:00     26-Feb-12 00:51    0.19
Soccer / Colon v Olimpo : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 22:10     26-Feb-12 00:02    0.48
Soccer / Colon v Olimpo : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 22:10     26-Feb-12 00:02    0.10
Soccer / Colo Colo v Univ de Concepcion : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 21:15     25-Feb-12 23:06    1.01
Soccer / Espanyol v Levante : Over/Under 1.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 21:00     25-Feb-12 22:32    0.61
Soccer / Academica v Benfica : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 20:15     25-Feb-12 22:16    0.19
Soccer / Lyon v Paris St-G : 8th Goal     25-Feb-12 20:00     25-Feb-12 21:53    2.85
Soccer / AC Milan v Juventus : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 19:45     25-Feb-12 21:43    0.24
Soccer / Lyon v Paris St-G : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 20:00     25-Feb-12 21:16    -5.00
Soccer / OHiggins v Universidad de Chile : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 19:00     25-Feb-12 20:56    0.57
Soccer / Westerlo v KV Mechelen : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 19:00     25-Feb-12 20:53    0.10
Soccer / Malaga v Zaragoza : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 19:00     25-Feb-12 20:42    -3.00
Soccer / Ajaccio v Dijon : Over/Under 4.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 18:00     25-Feb-12 19:52    0.09
Soccer / Slovan Liberec v Pribram : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 17:50     25-Feb-12 19:40    0.02
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 19:26    0.10
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : Over/Under 4.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 19:26    0.62
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : Correct Score     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 19:25    1.93
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 19:25    0.76Soccer / Monterrey v Puebla : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 23:00     26-Feb-12 00:54    0.16
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : Man City Clean Sheet?     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 19:23    0.67
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : Match Odds     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 19:22    1.50
Soccer / Vikingur v Tindastoll Hvot : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 17:00     25-Feb-12 18:49    -2.00
Soccer / Vikingur v Tindastoll Hvot : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 17:00     25-Feb-12 18:48    0.23
Soccer / Luzern v Young Boys : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 16:45     25-Feb-12 18:37    0.38
Soccer / Karlovac v Dinamo Zagreb : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 16:30     25-Feb-12 18:18    0.10
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : Half Time Score     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 18:18    1.14
Soccer / Man City v Blackburn : First Goalscorer     25-Feb-12 17:30     25-Feb-12 18:09    5.71
Soccer / Newcastle v Wolves : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 15:00     25-Feb-12 16:55    0.27
Soccer / Chelsea v Bolton : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 15:00     25-Feb-12 16:52    0.51
Soccer / Chelsea v Bolton : Over/Under 5.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 15:00     25-Feb-12 16:52    0.10
Soccer / Chelsea v Bolton : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 15:00     25-Feb-12 16:52    0.19
Soccer / Chelsea v Bolton : Match Odds     25-Feb-12 15:00     25-Feb-12 16:51    -0.68
Soccer / FC Koln v Leverkusen : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 14:30     25-Feb-12 16:21    1.06
Soccer / FC Koln v Leverkusen : Over/Under 1.5 Goals     25-Feb-12 14:30     25-Feb-12 15:38    0.08

Soccer: £18.06 | Tennis: £0.03  Total P&L:  £18.09

Soccer / Melbourne Heart v Central Coast : Over/Under 6.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 06:00     26-Feb-12 08:04    0.24
Soccer / Melbourne Heart v Central Coast : Over/Under 4.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 06:00     26-Feb-12 08:03    0.33
Soccer / Melbourne Heart v Central Coast : Over/Under 3.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 06:00     26-Feb-12 08:03    0.14
Soccer / Melbourne Heart v Central Coast : Over/Under 2.5 goals     26-Feb-12 06:00     26-Feb-12 08:03    0.13
Soccer / Melbourne Heart v Central Coast : Over/Under 1.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 06:00     26-Feb-12 08:03    0.67
Soccer / Melbourne Heart v Central Coast : Match Odds     26-Feb-12 06:00     26-Feb-12 08:02    0.19
Soccer / Melbourne Heart v Central Coast : DRAW NO BET     26-Feb-12 06:00     26-Feb-12 08:01    0.17

Soccer: £1.87  Total P&L:  £1.87

Laugh if you like but I have better days.  Don't forget that the money I generate can be used to fund riskier betting.  One of note is the Lyon vs PSG game which barely touched my bank as I only staked 2% on two high scoring teams.  Many others lost far more, I would have traded but got distracted and when I came back it was 4-3 so risked another 60p to win back the loss.
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 8:31 AM GMT
Soccer / Pachuca v Tigres : Over/Under 1.5 Goals     26-Feb-12 01:00     26-Feb-12 02:54    0.00

This bet for example I had 1.95 sitting on under 1.5 and should have traded as the 2nd goal came after the 90th minute, so missed my chance for an easy £5 on top, getting better and this is with a bank of £200
Report Mr.Angry February 26, 2012 8:34 AM GMT
I have total respect for that loadedgimp.  From small acorns, etc.
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 8:36 AM GMT
Oh and yes Ice King I did place a bet on Vikingur under 6.5 because I was angry I missed it.  Only 1%, epic mug bet isn't the term I would use Grin

Cheers Mr. Angry, occasionally I will spot an opportunity and make a lot more in a day but lost a days profit about 4 days back and decided to stop the losing bets.
My most recent greatest bet was City to beat Porto 10/1
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 8:40 AM GMT
My Malaga and Lyon bets were at the time I was making myself dinner and just wanted to get some easy pennies, sucks when I do that but it's £8 profit down the drain.  The little losses make you stop and think about your bets.
Report dsmith February 26, 2012 8:51 AM GMT
Turning pro and reading too much into your gambling runs the risk of turning into a sad lonely man IMO. A real hardened gambler has no time or thoughts for anything else in his life, no motivation to do the decorating or the garden, can't be bothered with striking up meaningless conversations with his wife and kids, "dad look what I made at school today" pro gambler"not now son thete is a argentine league 3 game on" later wife "what did you think of joes toilet roll robot" pro gambler "what robot?"
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 9:03 AM GMT
Laugh Fortunately I don't have a wife or kid to ignore, but I spent the whole of Friday until 9am striking up meaningless conversations at a house party so I must not be pro yet....managed to turn a profit in my state though which I found highly impressive.  I have learnt a lot from my time here, used to be recreational now I do it because I need cash.
Report Mr.Angry February 26, 2012 9:06 AM GMT
It is true that betting can take up a lot of time.

And you often hear bereaved offspring saying how they wish they could have spent more time with the dad before he popped his clogs.  I think mine would rather have the money.
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 9:08 AM GMT
Also I found it to be a better hobby than playing games on xbox or the like which is what a lot of people do.  When they have managed to clock up 5 straight days worth of COD or Battlefield over a few weeks and I have made 100 quid and not wasted my money on those silly games I feel ok.
Spending time with my dad today, gonna wash the car - one of the few people I actually talk to about gambling, mostly he just picks my brain for my exquisite knowledge of footy.
Report martin19842 February 26, 2012 9:41 AM GMT
if you only trade/bet a particular sport, then naturally you can only do it at certain times.

ie horseracing weekday afternoons, 2pm-5pm and a lot of those guys actually dont touch Saturdays.

football weekday evenings, Saturday and Sunday.

so that creates breaks for people to go and do other things.

and if you look at it like a job of work, then those three hours in an evening are for work, ie football.

i had a very busy day yesterday from about 2pm to 8pm, but i did have a very good day.  becuause iam self employed , i have to work today, so not too much time to do anything today.

obviously there are people that get addicted to betting, like many other things in life, and irrespective of whether you were a pro or addicted to it, it wouldnt matter what IT was, the rest of your life would disappear.

martin
Report Ice King February 26, 2012 9:54 AM GMT
agree Martin.
I work a 9-5 job and do some horse bets in my lunch and footie on my way home from work when time allows. Wife loves the telly and doesn't mind me earning money in the evenings on here as the shows she watches don't interest me in the slightest.  My boys love the fact they can actually see me at home. I used to work a job with more or less compulsory overtime It paid very well but they never got to see me as I would work till late come home eat and go to sleep. Then get up and do it all again seven days a week. Loads of money but no home life.  My boys love the fact they see me on a night and weekends and I have the time to do things with them now.  They both accept that this is better than what I did before.
Report Madrugada February 26, 2012 11:25 AM GMT
I think people underestimate the psychological aspects of gambling. The mind is wired for distractions. Do we subconsciously seek failure? Examine how much time you spend thinking, analysing a game or a race. What is the reward in terms of hourly rate? If it is poor then ask yourself what are you getting out of it. We all have limited time so use it constructively. I have found meditation very helpful in learning not to be a slave to my thoughts. They are like raindrops.
Report kingofROME February 26, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
Lot of option named already. Another is Many lack knowledge. Look up some stat website for 5min before game and they think they can be confident to pick bets.

True form is different to stat form. I watch as many game, learn every player, manager, every system they have used, every system they use in different positions in game, Almost to point I can second guess what they will do, This is level I learn for.

Many can go on lucky run using basic stat site and then when it end they maybe blame luck or fix Devil

I love people who back big names @ bad price. They fail to see the players they compete with are professional with top coaches. You only have to read threads here to see who you compete with Cool
Report boyce February 26, 2012 3:29 PM GMT
its fecking luck,,today ive had 7 2nds 1 3rd and 1 faller and its like that everyday
Report kenilworth February 26, 2012 3:32 PM GMT
boyce, could you not back for a place ?
Report boyce February 26, 2012 4:30 PM GMT
tarratino ,,,lets see how this gets 2nd
Report montecristo88 February 26, 2012 5:55 PM GMT
here is the reason liverpool total matched €9,174,145......
Report loadedgimp February 26, 2012 7:28 PM GMT
boyce it's luck if you don't have good reasons for it. 


kingofROME • February 26, 2012 12:33 PM GMT
Lot of option named already. Another is Many lack knowledge. Look up some stat website for 5min before game and they think they can be confident to pick bets.


Well 5 minutes is pushing it, only takes me a minute.
Report kincsem February 26, 2012 7:35 PM GMT
Group Think

They are afraid to look at facts and make up their mind.  They want to know what is fancied, what is the favourite.  They are scared to back at a big price.
Report boyce February 28, 2012 3:31 PM GMT
ok ,at the moment cannot buy a winner,,1st race saturday d pipe has one which i fancy and 10.5 10mins before the off..........i go into kitchen to make a tea come back to back it and,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,my internet connection has gone,,now ive had virgin broadband for 3 years and its never cut off,,,so it wins and 10 mins later it reconnects,,,,,,what dictates this
Report Biscuit1979 February 28, 2012 3:42 PM GMT
pipunch 25 Feb 12 23:06 
Well using my system and my knowledge of European football i actually lost 2 out of 5 games today and still made a good profit which is only about £12 less than i would have gotten for a days work at the job i quit in December, and i didn't have to leave my house to do it.

I think if it's bringing in money which is close or equivalent to a full time job then noone can really say it doesn't work. Will it make you rich? Doubtful. Half decent living or a very good top up to your full time job? Absolutely. Anyone saying it can't be done is saying it because THEY can't do it.

My predictions/games i trade on are based on solid stats and foundations that have been proven over the last 25 years in certain football leagues, so all i need is for the trends to continue to average out and i can't possible lose money - i've done my calculations, it's IMPOSSIBLE for me to go bust. People will say i'm full of it or whatever and that's fine, i'm just throwing my personal experience out there for people.






No offence intended here but unless you've re-registered with a new username then you've only been doing this since October. I don't really think 5 months is much to go off. If you're still here doing this week in week out in 2013 then i'd perhaps agree with you.
And your system cannot be that great if you lost 2 out of your 5 bets.
Report CLYDEBANK29 February 28, 2012 4:07 PM GMT
In answer to the original question more than likely none of them....

They lose because the odds are stacked against them and they dont have the knowledge or the tools to utilise that knowledge to win against the odds. 

Acquiring that knowledge comes at a cost and people will have better things to do
Report UP n DOWN February 28, 2012 5:19 PM GMT
theres too much to bet on and they want to be rich very quickly Wink
Report kenilworth February 28, 2012 5:32 PM GMT
biscuit, he/she lays the draw, greens up when a goal goes in, if
that doesn't happen before 60 mins, he/she backs the draw at 2.0.
It's an old, old system called the ****** generator. It wins a high %
is serious flawed.
Report boyce February 28, 2012 6:20 PM GMT
UP n DOWN     28 Feb 12 17:19 
theres too much to bet on and they want to be rich very quickly


dead right ,,thays my problem,,,my last purple patch was back in 2011 royal ascot and for a week afterwards,,won shedloads ,and thought i could get rich very quickly here,,but since then just defeat after defeat and badluck after badluck,,,,,but my mind has been screwed up chasing even though i know all profit days are at the top meetings/races ,most of all royal ascot,cheltenham fstival and aintree meeting,, i still do my balls on the lower grade shyte aw ,,,but yes ive been told before its a steady drip is the only way to make any profit
Report Jinkie February 28, 2012 6:26 PM GMT
I've read many times on here that 'only 2% of people using Betfair are in profit'.

Is that an urban myth or are there stats to back up this claim?
Report Just Checking February 28, 2012 6:32 PM GMT
"I've read many times on here that 'only 2% of people using Betfair are in profit'."

Don't say that, you'll encourage a group of crusty short odds losers to set up tents outside betfair HQ holding up banners "WE ARE THE 98%" and demanding a tax on the shrewd.

Oh wait, maybe that's how the PC came about Devil
Report gekko4864 February 28, 2012 6:32 PM GMT
The answer is simple, because of commission and overround. Any punter who over the course of 100 bets averaging £10 stake who loses say £2000 simply has to take the other side of the bet to become very profitable. Try and lose, you won't be able to! Its the commissions which cost you.

By the way, same applies to the stock market. Thats why brokers make money advising investors and charging commissions. Invest there own money? Do me a favour!
Report Cooee February 28, 2012 6:34 PM GMT
boyce, stop kidding yourself. It's not 'bad luck'. (Well, maybe the 'power-cut' is, but the rest isn't.)  If you're losing bet after bet then it's because you're making stupid bets. If your last 'purple patch' was up to the week after Ascot, then you've been doing badly since July. No way is a run that long down to bad luck. You're simply not up to it at this stage in your betting, so you need to go away and (if you come back) start learning how to pick good bets.
Report CouchPotatoSportsAddict February 28, 2012 6:46 PM GMT
Because we are too thick to trade like some people SadSad

I have discipline to not put on more than 2 bets on weekend footy in shops, but online u just see the odds on all the games in decimals and you go crazy and want to bet your winnings after another till u go to the ****s that night or till the last foot game. then i might get a light bulb above my head mixed with alchol which tells me to bet on tennis and end up loosing it all Sad Also its the buzz of getting richer doing nothing but sitting in a pub watching the game or on a sofa with the laptop. I blame 24hour betting! and the easy deposit methods to why addicted punters loose alot.

also most average punters bet on horses and nothing else,resulting in being a laid back punter which would mean they would go by name of the horse and very little form/jocky information given.
making most there bets luck based which we all know luck is small odds so after awhile the bookies would of made more money than the punter.

So the moral of the story is, by the time they learn there lesson they will end up chasing there losses back resulting in more losses in the long run. 

On a bet like Ronaldo First goal scorer, in the end the punter would get cocky repeating the same bet and still end up loosing more than he staked unless he ups his stake which once again most people dont have the balls to do. Which makes the dealer win in the long run.

another one would be fav horses like "long run" in cheltenham people will splash out on it, if it looses and the average punters named horse wins then the statistics would probly be like 80% people bet on the fav horse.

Sorry if i dont make sense off the top of my head.
Report boyce February 28, 2012 7:02 PM GMT
cooee youre right ,,,its just that the chase is on and ive been losing my mind ,,i know im doing wrong betting in nearly every single race.....im on holiday soon for a month and when i return i will forgett the losess im chasing and get back to normallity of selecting 1,2,3 or maybe no selections a day,,,dont go near aw,us,sa and revert back to a staking plan which recently is non existant simply down to the fact that im chasing,,,,,ive been just a complete mug because when selective im pretty good but nah its time stop this bollshyte and get my head back in order
Report Cooee February 28, 2012 7:11 PM GMT
Until your holiday, why don't you just withdraw your money, since you're clearly still flushing a load of it down the pan.
Report boyce February 28, 2012 7:18 PM GMT
yea ive done it,,its just like you said ive flushed shyteloads down the pan that surely some of it is stuck there waiting to be clawed back,,,but nah im flushing it straight down to the sewer with a power jet leaving it nice and clean ready to return,,any way im off goodluck
Report Cooee February 28, 2012 7:32 PM GMT
Okay. Good luck. Try not to think about it when you're off on holiday!

Oh, and when you get back, you might want to put a weekly deposit limit on your account, just so that you're strictly limited in how much you can lose..
Report AyersRock May 28, 2013 12:25 AM BST
Question should be how do most punters win?
Report henok May 28, 2013 12:44 AM BST

Feb 26, 2012 -- 2:51AM, dsmith wrote:


Turning pro and reading too much into your gambling runs the risk of turning into a sad lonely man IMO. A real hardened gambler has no time or thoughts for anything else in his life, no motivation to do the decorating or the garden, can't be bothered with striking up meaningless conversations with his wife and kids, "dad look what I made at school today" pro gambler"not now son thete is a argentine league 3 game on" later wife "what did you think of joes toilet roll robot" pro gambler "what robot?"


LaughLaughLaughLaugh

Report sideshowbob May 28, 2013 1:17 AM BST
most punters dont win, simply because they dont want to.
they dont want to bet on what makes a profit, they want to bet on what gives them excitement.
they want to bet on what they are about to watch and they want to bet on what they want to happen.

comparing 99% of punters with pro gamblers is like comparing a computer programmer with someone playing tetris on their iphone. theres no secret to gambling, its the easiest thing in the world to make money on (though harder to make a good living). all you have to do is do a bit of research. but most people just cant be arsed basically.
Report 3setpoints May 28, 2013 1:18 AM BST
but what does make a profit?
Report sideshowbob May 28, 2013 1:37 AM BST
betting on things that have a higher percentage chance of winning than the odds suggest. obviously the bigger the difference between the two figures, the better the bet is.

theres no way to "know" the chance of something happening, nobody knows that not the bookies or any punter in the world. all you can go on is all known facts. for instance team a plays team b. team has had 70% of their home games go over 2.5 goals and team b has had 70$ of their away games go over 2.5 goals then the chance of over 2.5 goals (on face value) is 70%. so if the odds are 5/6 youre on to a good bet. but then obviously you have to weigh up other things such as all both teams games (home and away) plus recent games for both teams (if someone has had a few 0-0, 1-0 recently that could put you off the bet) plus recent meetings between the teams (1 thing i usually ignore, but i know to some its important in how they select their bets) plus strikers being injured etc etc. but if you consistently bet with the "all known stats" thing in your head, youre on a good path. with any sport.

i once did that on a sport i know nothing about and picked 8 winners out of 8. ok flukey to do that well, but the point being stats are a good way to go ahead of anything else.

then its a case of doing it, learning from mistakes and finding out what you have a knack for and what you dont.
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