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treble
18 Feb 12 23:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 17 Jan 08
| Topic/replies: 12,392 | Blogger: treble's blog
A premier league team evens against a league 2 team that's won only one in their last 5?

Got to be a bit of value surely?
Pause Switch to Standard View Crawley V Stoke - Am I reading this...
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Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 12:48 PM GMT
TrickyTrees are you taking the piss?  The odds were way higher than 2.2!  Crawley have outplayed Stoke and some non-pen put them ahead.  You are kidding yourself if you think that was good odds/good betting
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 12:49 PM GMT

Feb 19, 2012 -- 6:47AM, TRICKYTREES wrote:


well done to all you stoke backers !!!like i said earlier its not very often that you see/get these  "just basically"  wrong odds !!!i hope you all duly filled your boots :)


er... they got a penalty that never was .

Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:49 PM GMT
^^^   are u real ????    2.26  pre ko  was b loody massive value on stoke !!!
what planet u from ??
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 12:50 PM GMT

Feb 19, 2012 -- 6:49AM, TRICKYTREES wrote:


^^^   are u real ????    2.26  pre ko  was b loody massive value on stoke !!!what planet u from ??


They havnt looked like scoring up till that point.

Report JOCI Club February 19, 2012 12:50 PM GMT
Just shows the pathetic standard of refereeing. That challenge from Shotton was much worse than the one Delap got sent off for!
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
i really dont care how the result is achieved ??  the main aim is to get comfortably green and to spot false/wrong prices !!!
i personally have achieved both  :)
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
Erm I don't know how to get the graph up to see what Stoke were matched at but I saw at least 8's on ht and 4 on ft so no Stoke 2.2 was a sh1t bet.
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
and the sending-off  was !!???     NOT
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
the odds on stoke were big, anything that happens in the game after that is just how it is, and the skill is down to trading. 
just because stoke havent been so much in the game doesnt change the fact that the pre-match odds were big
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 12:51 PM GMT

Feb 19, 2012 -- 6:51AM, TRICKYTREES wrote:


i really dont care how the result is achieved ??  the main aim is to get comfortably green and to spot false/wrong prices !!!i personally have achieved both  :)


You got lucky.

Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:51 PM GMT
EVANS and PULLIS fighting in the tunnel ??
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 12:52 PM GMT
Sending off did not change much...Crawley were better before the sending off and after...
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:52 PM GMT
I would take being lucky everyday   ty
Report bigmo February 19, 2012 12:52 PM GMT
Forest000 trade if I was you. You know how unpredictable football is. Bank a profit by greening up. You know it makes sense.Excited
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
As I said awful value and if you had used your "500" bet to lay stoke HT then back them you would be far richer and 2 years younger Laugh
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
well said FOREST  ,  exactly the point i trying to make !!!
Report iamhewho February 19, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
wd all stoke backers lucky or not
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 12:53 PM GMT

Feb 19, 2012 -- 6:52AM, TRICKYTREES wrote:


I would take being lucky everyday

Report iamhewho February 19, 2012 12:53 PM GMT
Cool
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:54 PM GMT
loadedgimp :  if only we could see in the future ????

ive got a lovely green book now , so my job is done !!!

is yours ???
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 12:54 PM GMT
You can take being lucky everyday Tricky, I laid Stoke HT and backed them after the sending off so no qualms here, I just don't think you had 500 quid to chuck on Stoke if you bet like that.
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
cheers  iamhewho

some bitter people on here !???!!
Report richiem222 February 19, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
I am with forest here have some faith down to 10 men not traded yet will wait until the second half about 10 mins in.
Report NobbyClarke February 19, 2012 12:55 PM GMT
Crawley are the better side?

The result will be decided by goals and Stoke's players are much more likely to convert chances than Crawley's.
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 12:56 PM GMT
bigmo, you have nearly convinced me :D

i can trade
for £2.32 profit.  Before that I was looking at £5 profit/£13.75 liability

trickytrees, most people here dont understand even basic odds, let alone value.  They think they do, which is where the 'mugginess' comes in
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 12:57 PM GMT
i cant see crawley scoring 2, and I couldnt prematch either.  I think the sending off makes 2 goals even less likely
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 12:57 PM GMT
Green up and move on.
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 12:58 PM GMT
gimp:what are you on about ??
you dont know me ,  you dont know how i bet ???

like i said on my very 1st post   stoke (premier league team)  were in my mind fantastic value at 2.26 and at that price i duly put a monkey on it !!!
with the view to trade if need be !!!

so ive been lucky ???     

i just dont understand the point you are trying to make ??
and for that reason im out !!!   Wink
Report furrelli February 19, 2012 12:58 PM GMT
"for me 2012 it's a red card....."

no it fecking isn't! make a case for giving our game back! comms are jus as bad as the refs
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 12:58 PM GMT
I can't back Stoke, regardless of price (did get them once 19/1 Stoke HT against Gillingham when a goal down)
dan_411 my bad if you were referring to Crouch, but Stoke as giants?  It's not pretty football and I would rather hold out for a better price if at all.
And they thought 2 was a good price
It looks like a 50/50 to me, and you guys are taking the shorter odds.

TRICKYTREES • February 19, 2012 12:21 PM GMT
5.1 stoke    jesus   i might have to go in again !!!!

We arent bitter, I just try to help people on the forum.  Trying to help you see your error otherwise you may lose your bank on a similar bet.  Forest you can bang on about value but how is 2.2 value when Stoke were above 5's?
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 12:59 PM GMT
when were stoke above 5's?
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
I only try to help, don't mean any harm.  Glad it came in for you mate!
Dunno Forest thats what Tricky said.
Report letmesee February 19, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
gimp-really mate you made some very poor comments here. but good luck with ur bet. i actually think this will be a draw here now. but i am out of this game, just still dont like it.
Report richiem222 February 19, 2012 1:00 PM GMT
hmmm yeah Ary's roses are playing this afternoon should be easy money
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 1:01 PM GMT
he means after the sending off !!!!   ha ha ha

like i said earlier we cant see into the future , can you ??
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:01 PM GMT
Where are the poor comments letmesee?  Stoke did trade higher, I said it was 50/50 so if you laid stoke when they were fave then lay crawley when they were faves you would be in a great position.
Report letmesee February 19, 2012 1:01 PM GMT
well one comment quite a few posts ago was stoke were a poor price at kick off..
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 1:02 PM GMT
i think tricky said it went to 5's after the sending off.
Seeing as we are arguing that 2.2 is value BEFORE kick-off, what happens after kick-off is irrelevant

Pre-match = value odds
During match = skill trading

You need both to be a successful trader
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 1:02 PM GMT
stoke went has high as 5.7 following sending off forest !
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:02 PM GMT
I dunno, I am done here, like I said only trying to help.  A dodgy pen doesn't make you all right.  Stoke were a poor price in my opinion.  Enjoy the second half.
Report L.Edwards February 19, 2012 1:03 PM GMT
i got stoke at 4.6, only a small stake, traded at a profit on all.
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 1:03 PM GMT
trickytrees, stoke could go to 1000 after the sending off, how does that mean in any way change the pre-match value?
Report letmesee February 19, 2012 1:04 PM GMT
stoke were a unbelievable price mate and that is totally correct..agree poor pen decision and also think poor sending off decision. i am out of the game now, and dont like argueing with no one. so good luck all..
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 1:04 PM GMT
Thata 100% forest ,  anyway im not going to spend the 2nd half posting on here , the gee gees start soon !!!
all the best everyone with your bets.
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 1:05 PM GMT
you too

I greened btw for £2.44, seems safer that way :D
Report TRICKYTREES February 19, 2012 1:05 PM GMT
:)
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 1:05 PM GMT
green is good Grin
Report NobbyClarke February 19, 2012 1:06 PM GMT
loadedgimp are you xlnc in disguise
Report JOCI Club February 19, 2012 1:06 PM GMT
We need Ricci Fuller on 2nd half instead of Crouch to run at the Crawley defenders and give them a fright.
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 1:07 PM GMT
If it was 11 v 11 I would be staying in this game for sure,  as it is I am not sure I made the right decision by greening
Report SrgtDouche February 19, 2012 1:07 PM GMT
fuller LaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh


I think he had a late night yesterday with sean paulLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh[
Report dopolop February 19, 2012 1:08 PM GMT
i got stoke at 4.6 to win. not sure wether to cash out as they have 10men. or shall i brave it to the end!!??
Report pipunch February 19, 2012 1:09 PM GMT
Clueless people on here once again. 'Didn't look like scoring up til the pen'....doesn't change the fact that pre-game the Stoke bet was massive value. I backed Stoke and then traded out. The old arse was going 50p 5p once the sending off came but i was still confident Stoke would score and i'm just being a **** by not keeping my bet on cause i think it'll end 0-2.
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:09 PM GMT
No nobby, I am only loadedgimp - never changed my name and you should be able to tell.  What makes you think I am xlnc?
Everything I said seems justifiable, Stoke were the poorer team from what I saw but admittedly I didn't watch all that match but the commentator seemed to agree with me.
Report maurice lester February 19, 2012 1:09 PM GMT
loadedgimp 19 Feb 12 12:58
I can't back Stoke, regardless of price (did get them once 19/1 Stoke HT against Gillingham when a goal down)
dan_411 my bad if you were referring to Crouch, but Stoke as giants?  It's not pretty football and I would rather hold out for a better price if at all.
And they thought 2 was a good price
It looks like a 50/50 to me, and you guys are taking the shorter odds.

TRICKYTREES • February 19, 2012 12:21 PM GMT
5.1 stoke    jesus   i might have to go in again !!!!

We arent bitter, I just try to help people on the forum.  Trying to help you see your error otherwise you may lose your bank on a similar bet.  Forest you can bang on about value but how is 2.2 value when Stoke were above 5's?



Unreal - Do you know how much is bank is? A monkey bet may only be 1 or 2% of his bank so it's irrelevant. Stoke at 5s have nothing to do with pre match odds at all. If that is the case you saying that if Stoke were 2/1 pre match you wouldn't have touched them? On your logic I wish you well in your future betting as you will need it....
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:12 PM GMT
Cheers maurice, I just dont understand value.  Stoke seem to have backed me up with a poor first half performance, but you guys obviously disagree.  I wish everyone well and sorry for voicing my opinion.
If Stoke were 2/1 pre match I still would have waited about 15 minutes before getting on them...
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 1:13 PM GMT

Feb 19, 2012 -- 7:09AM, pipunch wrote:


Clueless people on here once again. 'Didn't look like scoring up til the pen'....doesn't change the fact that pre-game the Stoke bet was massive value. I backed Stoke and then traded out. The old arse was going 50p 5p once the sending off came but i was still confident Stoke would score and i'm just being a **** by not keeping my bet on cause i think it'll end 0-2.


You were confident of a lucky non-penalty. Laugh

Report Ibrahima Sonko February 19, 2012 1:14 PM GMT
boom
Report SPOT THE DOG February 19, 2012 1:14 PM GMT
on the http://myp2p.pe/ link whats this PLUGIN it states i need????
Report MFC_1986 February 19, 2012 1:14 PM GMT
oooh. a proper goal.
Report MeanMrMustard February 19, 2012 1:14 PM GMT
LaughLaugh
Report richiem222 February 19, 2012 1:14 PM GMT
Have a little faith
Report JOCI Club February 19, 2012 1:15 PM GMT
Laugh

Get in !!
Report iamhewho February 19, 2012 1:15 PM GMT
ill green 2/3 now
Report henok February 19, 2012 1:15 PM GMT
wtf did anybody notice markets hoovered?
Report dan_411 February 19, 2012 1:16 PM GMT
I was gonna green out for £2.07 a few seconds ago, now it's £9.50 but want to keep with it till the end now. Crouch :)
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:16 PM GMT
My bets were under 3.5 1.12 traded 1.07, laid Stoke HT at 3.15 backed at 7, and Crouch FGS and he scored 2nd.  I just try to help you guys but you obviously dont need it.   At least we can all agree its poor quality football.
Report furrelli February 19, 2012 1:16 PM GMT
feck nme it came right off the middle of his for'ead for a change, normally an ear, nose or hunch....
Report iamhewho February 19, 2012 1:16 PM GMT
fck i ive greened up

dnt have to whatch this **** now

gl all
Report MeanMrMustard February 19, 2012 1:17 PM GMT
3rd goal for Stoke would be lovely, just to crush any ideas of a comeback.
Report SPOT THE DOG February 19, 2012 1:17 PM GMT
on the http://myp2p.pe/ link whats this PLUGIN it states i need????
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:18 PM GMT
http://www.firstrowsports.eu/watch/108632/1   /watch-crawley-town-fc-vs-stoke-city.html
Report pipunch February 19, 2012 1:21 PM GMT
Confident of a lucky non-penalty?

No, i was confident that Crawley don't have what it takes to finish even a ten-man Stoke off, and for all their possession they did nothing with it and Stoke looked more dangerous.

I also said i thought it would be 2-0. I don't know how often you have to be right around here before losing bettors stop trying (and failing) to take the mick out of you.

Like i've already said pre-match, the Stoke bet was a good bet regardless of how the in play went.

You play poker? It's like saying raising AA huge pre-flop is a bad bet because it turns out they got beat by a 72 two-pair. Simply not true, a good bet is a good bet regardless of the outcome because in this case the PL team win most of the time (which i also said pre-match.)
Report dan_411 February 19, 2012 1:22 PM GMT
In games like these, usually the underdogs try to hit you early and hold on to it. Crawley didn't take advantage of their early superior play or the man advantage and it's difficult to see them surrendering it now.

Atrocious quality of football though that we can all agree on.
Report threetees1 February 19, 2012 1:23 PM GMT
Spot the Dog

I think it may be lying.
I thing it is an ad trying to entice you to download garbage.

I stand corrected if I am wrong.
Report whatdoyaknow February 19, 2012 1:23 PM GMT
If Stoke were 2/1 pre match I still would have waited about 15 minutes before getting on them...

That statement is ****ing mental.
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 1:24 PM GMT
gimp, what they became AFTER kick-off is irrelevant in this case,

At 2.20, if this game was played with the same players 10 times, then stoke would need to win 5 times to make this bet worthwhile.   If laying crawley (I always lay rather than back) at 3.75, then accounting for commission, out of 10 bets Crawley would need to win say 3.3 games.  In addition for trading purposes, they would need to both go ahead in those 3.3 games and keep the lead. 
Do you honestly think crawley would take the lead in this game and then hold onto it 3.3 times out of 10?
Or stoke would not win 5 times?
And that is what makes it value.

Now, the fact that stoke then went to 5's in-play, that is where the skill part of the market comes in, I missed out on this cause I should have layed Crawley and didnt, that was my mistake.

But it doesnt alter the fact that this was a value bet pre-match.

If you dont understand that, then I would suggest you are results orientated, which would give a good chance of you being a losing player
Report SPOT THE DOG February 19, 2012 1:24 PM GMT
thanks threetees1 that was my thinking...
Report pipunch February 19, 2012 1:28 PM GMT
Forest0000 with one of the most sensible things that has been said in this thread. My position was exactly the same as his, and i've greened for a nice Sunday profit.
Report c.ronaldo February 19, 2012 1:28 PM GMT
is there another goal in this game?
Report SPOT THE DOG February 19, 2012 1:30 PM GMT
Crawley Town to score the next goal...imo
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:30 PM GMT
Whatdoyaknow, I just dont bet on match odds pre KO, not overly mental just like to see whats happening in a game first.
Forest I don't know what results orientated means, but no I frequent the under 6.5 thread where I pick safer bets and trade out then use the profit to bet on likely things (usually over 1.5 or laying scores).  Usually I would find a team like Stoke and lay them for a bit before backing them - that way I have small profit sitting on a likely outcome but no risk.  It's my way, I tried backing teams but seemed to get let down a lot.  Bayern yesterday, PSV today, Man City v Sunderland, you know those types.
I do see what you mean about Stoke being value pre-match but my view was I couldn't expect to back Stoke-teams vs Crawley-teams at 2.2 prices and expect to turn a profit.
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 1:33 PM GMT
On reflection I am probably blinded by my hatred for Stoke, and just got annoyed that a pen was given as it ruined my bet on Crouch FGS (over 6/1)
Report SPOT THE DOG February 19, 2012 1:34 PM GMT
some of the posts need Deep thinking
Report dimebar8 February 19, 2012 1:40 PM GMT
Stoke, Tottenham, Liverpool, Barcelona, Ajax
Back    222440357    19-Feb-12
07:59    -          5.14    100.0    Matched

Ajax 2-0 atm too after 10 mins... hoping livepool n tottenham win nice n easily so i can just take out my liability on the multi laying Barca to still take a +400 prof if they win or 0 loss on this multi if they fail Cool
Report dimebar8 February 19, 2012 1:41 PM GMT
well +300 but over £400 total return...
Report dan_411 February 19, 2012 1:41 PM GMT
Out of it now, 50p for 10 more minutes is never worth it
Report pipunch February 19, 2012 1:42 PM GMT
These blatant market overreactions to things like Stoke being battered by a very decent La Liga team in a European competition are the little edges you need to look for to consistently win.

Basically, most people are morons, so taking advantage of the fact they thought a mediocre lower league team had any chance here against a Premier League team who like to rough it up is what is needed. So it proves to be right, with Crawley not being able to even win against 10-men.
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 1:44 PM GMT
Well you can pick value and make money
You can be a skilled trader and make money
You can do both and make a lot of money
If it works for you, I am not knocking it, just trying to get you to understand value a bit better.

Results orientated means that you look at results and base your betting on that, rather than the odds.
For example, with poker, the AA analogy.  You should always get all your money in preflop with AA if possible because you would be favourite to win.  However, someome who has done that and lost 3 times on the trot with AA might not go all in on the 4th time.  This clearly would be a mistake, the AA is thinking in this situation about the losing results and not the fact they are way ahead if they get there money in.
The reverse would be the guy who goes sees that his 94offsuit would have won had he pushed all in against AA.  He made a good fold but by seeing that it would have won, he does indeed push all in with 94o against AA the next time.  Clearly he is going to lose a lot of money here but he makes the move because he is thinking with past events in mind.

To move the analogy back to betting, maybe we could use the Chelsea v United game where United came back from 3-0 down. 
Someone results orientated could see that result, see that Chelsea were 1.05 to lay and that he made a killing.
So when it comes to the next season and United are 3-0 down to chelsea, and the odds are at 2 to lay, he bases his decision on previous results and makes the lay.  Laying Chelsea when they are 3-0 up at 2 is clearly insane, but the guy is again basing things on what happened previously.

To come back to this game, Laying Crawley @ 3.75 imo was value.  I have found this value and acted on it.  But, just because the odds went to 5's midgame, doesnt mean that next time I shouldnt take the 3.75 on Crawley.  Should I decide not to take the 3.75 on Crawley next time would be losing value based on previous results.

I am just popping to shop now before Spurs game but will check back here when home incase you need anything clarifying :D
Report MeanMrMustard February 19, 2012 1:45 PM GMT
Taken a free bet now. Time for a spot of lunch before Spurs teach Stevenage a lesson.
Report NobbyClarke February 19, 2012 1:46 PM GMT
What makes you think I am xlnc? Everything I said seems justifiable

Comments like that make me think you are xlnc
Report ReimerpYsatnaf February 19, 2012 1:55 PM GMT
How did they miss that handball on the line there?? Laugh
Report pipunch February 19, 2012 1:55 PM GMT
This same thing happened with Barca and Arsenal last week. Because Barca have been drawing a lot in La Liga people were laying them when it was clear they were definitely going to win by their CL form compared with 'Kusens.

Similarly in the Arsenal game people thought Arsenal would do well purely because Milan aren't the force they once were.

Stupid thinking which is devoid of statistics or reasoning. But i don't care, these people just push odds in the favour of the people that actually know about the game of football.
Report JOCI Club February 19, 2012 1:56 PM GMT
Well done The Mighty Potters!

Hope we avoid Arsenal in the next round! Laugh
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 2:01 PM GMT
Cheers Forest what you say makes a lot of sense and thanks for taking the time to post it.  I try to ignore results now and past games.  I try to bet on odds which will move in my favour (and likely to end up winning) and then trade out for a bit of green.
Yes pipunch Arsenal is a bit different because it is hard for a lot of people to see odds of 3+ and not back it, definitely too much faith in what is not really a great team.  Milan were phenomenal that day!
Report sofaking February 19, 2012 2:10 PM GMT
Easy money. Happy
Report Forest000 February 19, 2012 2:24 PM GMT
no problem gimp

I am going to pm you now :D
Report JOCI Club February 19, 2012 2:58 PM GMT
JOCI Club 19 Feb 12 09:40 
We really should win, as we did away to Gillingham, but we're in a very poor run of form right now, so I'm not confident. The only thing that gives me a bit of optimism is that this competition was Stoke's success story last season, getting to Wembley for the semis, then demolishing Bolton to make the final. All the players will see this as their chance for glory again (and perhaps another season in Europe), and have little doubt they will be up for it too.

Don't think it's a bad thing to bring in some fresh faces, as we've had Fuller and Jerome warming the bench for most of the season and they will be up for it.

Think it might be tough for the first 30 mins with Crawley throwing everything at us, but I think we should weather the storm and come out with a narrowish victory 0-1 or 0-2.


Think my assessment wasn't bad in the end.
Report loadedgimp February 19, 2012 3:06 PM GMT
Spot on JOCI,  I am trying hard to like you despite your team choice Happy
Report JOCI Club February 19, 2012 4:28 PM GMT
Happy
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