Small Simple betting stratedgy that gives a profit

What you are asking for doesn't exist.
I wish it did.

You do realise that you are asking to make 25% of your bank each day, so even at 5% commission (which it very quickly wouldn't be) you would be a millionaire in 52 days time! I'm sure someone will be only too happy to help you out with this!

Try just not losing your bank each day first and then think about profit! The easiest way to make money on here is do the opposite of every single bet posted. And that is solid gold advice!

Lol i know there is no way of guaranteed profit! Im sure people have used some stratedgies that have been succesful though

Do the opposite to what money tree naps

But if they were successful why would you share them? Remember it's an exchange and we are betting against each other. Seriously tho, lay every free money short price certainty given on the forums and you will be in profit. Watch the markets, there are times in matches when the odds move very quickly at certain times during a match. Cheap trades for very low risk can be made match after match. Don't get greedy and good luck

i use a system on HT/FT result lay... (am not selling, am not promoting)and have built my bank back to break even point. its not perfect but the winning ratio is surely higher than the loosing one... or you can lay correct score prediction of a particular site, and be 100% of making profit. the reason am confident of this because i have analysed their correct score predictions for nearly 8 months and must say their strike rate  is terrible

and also trading is another way forward nearly forgot that, trade on correct score market during in-play if you bold enough or unders market which is successful most of the time.

There are many ways to make money on the exchange, I would suggest you start by scalping ticks (you back a result thats very likely and then lay the result a few minutes later to win a few pence), and once you've earnt £2 find a decent 1.3 bet or something and try and work your way up, but only bet with profit you've already made from trading.

So for now, Under 6.5 Sakaryaspor Turkish match 1.02 £20 would win 38p, if you can find 6 of those you will have £2 to bet without going into negative.

In a similar vein is there anybody here who can help me win the Euromillions? I am willing to offer 25% of any winnings to anybody who provides a successful formula at cracking the jackpot.40% if the Jackpot is under £20,000,000.

Find a Derren Brown.

Stay away from football and cricket match markets.

Don't back or lay in play.

You will not have an edge without better knowledge than others, or a better understanding of psychology of mass delusion.

This exchange is 'mature' enough that prices are generally very accurate, and making profitable* moves after commission is impossible in 99% of markets.

*Profitable in expectation, it is also the case that with so many people, some will make money from just being the lucky ones. (Although of course they'll feel it was down to their skill.)

So you need to develop an understanding of why and when some markets do offer the wrong prices. My favourite for this is the relegation markets, although by late season it tends to be more accurate.

Next year I will have a thread dedicated to trading the relegation markets, but this year I've missed the boat so it'll just look like aftertiming.

Ultimately, don't believe that staking can turn a loss into a profit. It cannot, although it can turn profit to loss.

Always remember the less oft quoted gamblers' ruin lemma, "In a situation with a finite bank betting against an infinite bank, the probability of the finite bank going bust reaches 1 as the number of bets approaches infinity.".

I think the above applies only with a small 'edge', but the chances of getting a large enough edge after commission here to overcome that is tiny.

Also don't be fooled that trading is safer than punting, it's not. Also don't believe that making a bad value bet to 'trade off' is good. Bad value is bad value, so you'd still make more money by simply not making that bet and just making the trade off without the bad value bet there.

Don't be scared to be red on a market, if a bet is value it is value.

If you are regularly losing your bank, increase your bank to your real bank. Your bank is not your account balance, your bank is the amount you are prepared to lose. I see this in poker very often, people are scared to lose so they sit down with £10 of chips, instead of the £40 in their pocket. They lose that, so they buy in another tenner, and another tenner, and just lose all £40 in chunks, when they'd have probably been more profitable playing with £40 in the first place.

The number one tip is "BE HONEST WITH YOURSELF". If you're lying to yourself about how much you're putting into this site, or how much you're gambling, then please seek out help.

So be honest, and also don't pretend something was a "good tip" if it goes 1.01 before losing. A losing tip is a losing tip. It's very easy to convince ourselves we did alright because we came close. But a bet is binary object, it wins or loses. Coming close isn't winning.

On the flip side, just because a bet loses doesn't make it a bad bet. If I take 2/1 ona fair coin flip of tails and the coin shows heads, it wasn't a bad bet.

decent post, ror.

loadedgimp: What's so important about avoiding "going negative".

If you start the day at 2000p and later have 2200p, then why make a bad value 200p bet now just because you'd still be in profit for the day?

Likewise, would you avoid a good value bet because you're on 1982p and so far down for the day?

Arbitrary milestones like ending days in profit are precisely what cause people to make bets they otherwise wouldn't or pass bets they'd otherwise take. Again this is where people go wrong in poker, they'll end up shoving all in pre with QJ if they bought in a tenner and are down to £4 when they wouldn't think of doing that if they were a quid in profit. And they'll even do this if they're just going to reload another tenner if the all in loses, when they could just reload now and play with £14 and play good poker.

If you start the day at 2000p and later have 2200p, then why make a bad value 200p bet now just because you'd still be in profit for the day?

Likewise, would you avoid a good value bet because you're on 1982p and so far down for the day?


Agree 100% with this - and I do it myself. If say I've made £100 profit during the day and there is a live TV footie match on I'll bet £50 with the attitude " if it losese I'm still 50 up "
I'm trying to get out of this habit

* loses

So be honest, and also don't pretend something was a "good tip" if it goes 1.01 before losing. A losing tip is a losing tip. It's very easy to convince ourselves we did alright because we came close. But a bet is binary object, it wins or loses. Coming close isn't winning.

Sound advice ror, you see so many times on the forums with "overs backers were unlucky there" because so many chances were missed etc. It lost, 3 goals weren't scored no matter how many chances were missed. Stats and goal averages aren't based on the number of chances missed they are based on goals scored and results and the odds are set accordingly next time they play! Last minute winners win and lose bets but they still count the same as a goal scored in the 1st minute. Once emotion and the notions of "luck" come into making bets you are doomed to failure.

a d in the plan is a no no

Lay football draws

make .0111111111 %  per day     5 %   i wish

there is no such thing as value. there's the market price, your opinion, and there's winners and losers. anything else is smoke and mirrors.

Can someone explain what will be the good returns per month % wise. Because I doubled my £60 within a month and thought that is less returns and went greedy and back to £70 now.  So what is realistic returns per month with a bank of £100. Thanks in advance.

back blackpool away, lay them at home..t y

Put simply , back higher and lay lower.

If you like football , stick to football.
Spend all your time watching odds move on different markets.
Do this with as many matches as possible over time. Write down notes in a book what odds of different markets are at different time of the day , morning lunch , mid aft , hour before kick off , 10 mins before kick off , 5 mins into match , half time ...etc.
After a month of this you will be much more knowledgeable and confident about how to make money on here by trading.
Trust me by doing this you can learn more than anyone can tell you.

Ror, my point was if you can make £2 with minimal risk, then you can carry on making £2 a day for a while, eventually your bank will build up and you will start making £4 then £6...I didn't say it's important not to go negative, but it does help if you don't.  That whole value stuff doesn't bode well with me either.  Value is only good when you find an edge and I don't think many pro gamblers come onto the forum.  I can pick the odd value bet but most of the time you play the market.  If I think there will be less than 7 goals I am not going to hold out for a better price, I will take whats on offer and reduce my liability when possible.

List of people you can feel free to harass because they know better than the penny pinchers:
Rosie
fortuna1
viva el presidente
Gibbo99
TALKSPORT

these people know their sh1t!  they either preach about value or tell you how pointless winning 20p by betting £25 is so they obviously have better methods but are unwilling to share.  I haven't pursued them because I believe they lose their banks regularly but I reckon you might as well give it a shot.

If you don't believe in value then you believe in betting "at any price".

This does not make sense unless you genuinely think your objective is to never lose a bet.

My objective is to make money, therefore I want get prices such that over the long term, the money I make on the wins covers the money I lose on the losses.

Sometimes it might seem banal to chase odds such that from a £20 bet you win 26p rather than 22p, but it genuinely might make the difference between profit and loss in the long term.

The same applies for betting 26p and whether it wins £20 or £21, you might think, "well I'd be happy to win £20 from 26p so why bother trying to get £21!" but again that's bad thinking, it might be the difference between running in profit or not in the long run.


This is especially true for very long shots. Someone might stick £10 @ 1000 when the true odds are 1 in 1500. Despite the fact it's bad value, they don't care because £10000 is enough to keep them happy anyway.

This is where bookies scoop a huge amount of money, by not offering huge odds on the really unlikely events.