how many people trading compared to those just betting, and .....

hi all,

just thought i'd come back in on this...

not had a very good week at all trying this... started off doing a few on the first day and made some good returns, about 20% from 5/6 trades but then it all went very wrong. first one was the rennes match, put in u4.5 at 2-0 at 67 mins. was 3-2 by 75 mins so went pop. second one, almost the same - put in u2.5 at 15 mins and 2-1 after 28mins, third one put in u2.5 at ko and goal scored in first min leading to big red.

really don't know what i'm doing wrong. not spending enough time looking at stats? getting unlucky? being too close to the goals? i thought 3 goals would be far enough away to trade but by my record of a dozen or goes has lead to big losses. btw, i've only been in these markets literally two mins each time so haven't been being gready :(

still want to try and carry on though but am thinking perhaps u5.5 or 6.5 is a better shout? don't know what the usual prices are but guess u5.5 is about 1.07? Can anyone give me the idea of drop in this price usually? (take wigan bolton tomorrow as an example) are we looking at 1.05 inside 10 mins? i'm only aiming for 2-3 ticks each trade but can't even seem to get that at the moment.

any help/advice would be appreciated

either youve been very unlucky there or just poor game selection, couldnt tell you as i dont know much about the games you were on, does sound incredibly unlucky considering your only after 2-3 ticks though as your looking at only being in the market for 2 or 3 minutes with that sort of price fall. maybe look at the time that you were starting the trade off, for me i would never back pre game because of what happened to you a goal can go in in the first minute and also you dont really know what kind of game your getting yourself into, e.g. liverpool v spurs, pregame you would have probably thought goals but just by watching it develop you could tell that they were going to be hard to come by and so they were and then theres other games where you might not be expecting goals but then one goes in and everything changes, as they say goals change games. the thing with the higher markets like 5.5 and 6.5 is that although you are safer in the fact there has to be more goals so your safer in betting terms of it being a winning bet overall but for trading the odds move alot slower so your stake is exposed for longer. as i have said in previous posts when starting up you should always use low stakes because it isnt about the money at the start its about getting your head around it all and setting up a system that works, you need to become a master of making %s, once you are there you can increase stakes to make more money.

morning quin

took onboard your comments last night, so looked at the ausi game this morning 4 points in 9 minutes greened both sides job done, therefore achieving a better point rate.  as i watch the positions if a move against me then i can deal with it appropriately.

So i think the maximum tick i will look for will be 4 points, it also means that i have to go into the market a little earlier, but the point movement/minute seems to be slightly faster than when the odds are at the bottom end of the scale.

and by doing the same research you can still make the informed choices

martin

aheadington

the rennes match, was always going to have goals, based on the previous scores.

you also mention going in to an u2.5 at 15 mins, i would suggest that is far too early, and would have gone as far up the scale as possible at 4.5 or 5.5 markets.

martin

aheadington
10 Feb 12 23:52 Joined: 02 Aug 10

Dont beat yourself up, the rest are talking sh1t.

18% increase in bank today etc, one of the giveaways (style over substance) add on hes only been doing it for the last few weeks theres not much to learn from him or the others.

Still a harmless thread for the excited new starters.

if u just stated this, ty to lean from ur mistakes as they will surely come. that said i dont think trading is as simple as backing high and laying low by getting in and out of the market quickly( most odds ae setup assuming the expectancy of a goal in a range of time). ur recent wins maybe purely due to luck and u dont have enough sample to prove urself a winner.

hi there

ive been football beting in different formats for 3 seasons, so im not entirely new to this.

i came on here to have a sensible conversation with others, of which the majority has been useful.

i am not looking for a short term plan, i am looking at this in a serious manner, as a useful spare income for the medium term.

there are far too many people on the net, and around the world looking to sell a system that picks winners all day evey day, and how they have made millions, and no they have decided to share their secret for £49, absolute TOSH.

so thank you for your input, all points noted in a constructive manner.

martin

hi guys good thread this. i'm only 20 but since 1st january i started trading and love it. i have an apprenticeship making parts for aeroplanes but its pretty relaxed leaving me able to have time to go through markets looking for trades. been on here since i was 18 and made a loss overall but since turn of year things  have been looking up now i'm trading.

i have been trading slightly differently but these are sum of the bets i,ve been on this week.when the odds for premier league matches come out i go through each game deciding whether theres chance to trade.i was on here monday night and i started watching the liverpool vs tottenham match odds and over/under 2.5 a couple of hours before game. each trade is with 1k and similar to you martin i prefer to get out quickly gaining a few ticks.

i backed under 2.5 at 2.08 in the liverpool tottenham game with 1k went downstairs for my tea came back 20 min later and price was 1.95 which i couldn't believe.so i got out with a profit.
then liverpool went to 1.92 right on kickoff which i couldn't resist to lay and backed at 1.99 after 18 min  in play which isn't great but liverpool's price just refused to drift.

then guys i was looking round and bumped into sheff wed vs blackpool match odds. sheff wed were 2.58 and blackpool 2.92. the first thing i thought is that they should be other way round. i decided to lay sheff wed at 2.58 with 1k and left it to match overnight. by 1 o clock on tuesday afternoon sheff wed were 2.7 but instead of cashing out i had a feeling they would continue to drift up to kick off. 5 min before kick off i backed sheff wed at 2.98  and they even went as high as 3.1. this left me looking like this.

sheff wed +£135
blackpool +£135
the draw  +£135

looking now though i think i could of traded it a lot better leaving more green on blackpool as they won easy but interesting stuff though anyway. maybe pre game trading is the way forward but you need patience. if your getting on prices early doors with a decent wedge ur guna have an advantage over people who are lumping on bad prices at kick off

SMITHY

well done, as like you i have been on betfair for a about three years.

quinn and others have provided good input this week, but i think i have decided today to stick to the 1,2, and 3 tick movements and lock in profit, also trades invariably happen in the second half of a game.

being saturday i got into a few early open positions and got caught napping.

so ive had to work hard again this evening.

learnt a whole lot this week, some of it has helped

martin

good stuff smithy that input will be a great help to many..keep this thread going its a belter and no idiots as yet

I still don't get trading. I know what it is but how when do you do it? ie I back u2.5 goals at 1.9. When do I trade to make a profit?

evening sweetchildofmine

i agree i have benefited from the input, and the questions then make you think about how you trade, but each person has to be happy and content with how you trade. 

it all helps

martin

evening sweetchildofmine

i agree i have benefited from the input, and the questions then make you think about how you trade, but each person has to be happy and content with how you trade. 

it all helps

martin

another great trade tonight..ok barca are BARCA but they were available to lay at 8/1 with less than 7 minutes left..far too good to pass up

should have added they were 3-2 down at the time

martin on threads like these get a notebook and cherry pick all the best points and jot them down so you dont forget them

and remember that most of the advice comes from losers.

mike, if you back at 1.9 then laying at anything under 1.9 will produce profit. 0.01 is 1% of stake so the lower you lay the bigger the profit.

Bank increases for 11th and 12th please?

rat

hi guys hope everyone's trading well. earlier in the thread i sed how i layed sheff wed at 2.58 with 1k the day before there match with blackpool last week and backed them at 2.98 right on kickoff and this week i think i might of found another.

stoke play valencia on thursday and the current prices for me are wrong. stoke are around 3.1 and valencia are around 2.5 -2.6. i reckon closer to kick off the prices will be 2.8 for both i might be wrong but bookies are pricing this up both 6/4 so wish me luck. lay valencia @2.56 with 1k back higher before kick off

smithy good find, and good luck with that,

if you looked you might find an arb opportunity it you look at the bookies and that game.

so the truth is no bank increase for the 11th and 12th, actually a bank decrease of 19%, which was a rescued position, by theclosee of business on Sunday

why did that happen,??  well i changed the number of points that i wanted, instead of the maxumim 3 points tried to get 4 or 5 points, which was muted by a few, so i thought i would give it a go, but i was going into games too early, so got hit hard on saturday, by a couple of games

on sunday i worked hard for 2 and 3 points and got them, and locked in, and also if a game turned against me, i reacted immediately, altered the position and took a defensive position to protect any downside.

you dont learn if you dont try.

so this week im going to take my strategy through the week,and see where we go with it

i dont know why, but locking in a 2 or 3 point profit and then moving to another market, or even going back into the same market, works for me. 

and i need to be happy with how i do this, so that as the money increases i am comfortable doing it a way that i am happy with.

cheers

martin

sorry if i slowed you down martin but it worked for me so thought saying something might also benefit you, i totally agree that you need to work the way in a way you feel comfortable with and so everyones ways will be different, which is why i have stressed on many occasions to start with low stakes until you are comfortable. i suppose you can never know what your comfortable with until you find what you are also uncomfortable with, so best of luck and i hope you have no more set backs!!

Best thread iv read on here in a long time guys, nice to see advice being shared so willingly. I've been on here on and off for 4 years and used to trade the draw when I first started. Like most, greed got the better of me and scared me away but looking at getting up and running again thanks to the words in this thread. Will start with small stakes and learn as I go. Keep up the good work all.

hey quin, nothing to apologise for, i am a totally open minded person, and will lesson to anyone who has a sensible and reasoned argument.

i must say  though Sunday was a very focussed day, concentrated on the job in hand and got the results.  so nothing major to worry about.

had to move very fast on the willem game earlier, that definitely focuses the mind.one thing that i may need to look at is whether its possible to take a cross-market position to defend against a turning position.

any views ??

martin

that willem game looks like it would have been a traders worst nightmare with all the quick goals, hope you got on in between or after and they didnt catch you out. not sure what you mean with the cross-market positions, im guessing you mean taking a position on another market to back yourself up incase things go wrong?? if so i dont think its possible, otherwise there would be no risk, which will never be the case. not sure if thats what you meant though mate, so excuse me if im way off the point

ttt

hi all,

still working hard on this, have had a reasonable Sunday, monday and a small net gain this evening, after the difficult Saturday.

looking at the position, from when i started this, 10 days in on this and the bank is worth just over double the opening bank, and thats with taking some quite large hits.

i have also learnt that its quite easy to take a few points when a team goes 2 clear goals up, so thats something that i am looking at.

have to work late tomorrow so no trading tomorrow, thursday looks like there will be some opportunities.

another key thing that i have found is not to get into the goals market too early, so all of my points tend to be gained in the second half of games.

martin

look at the 0-0 if its still goal less at half time..ive noticed the odds for 0-0 tends to slowly but steadily decrease during the interval..not everytime but often enough..worst case scenario break even, as its rarely going to creep higher

hi there

thanks for that, ive been working quietly all week, and doing ok, and going to continue through this evening and tomorrow.

martin

hello everyone

hope we have all had a good weekend.

so i started this process on the 3rd feb, as at the close of today, the bank is at 5 times the starting value, so 16 days,

and this weekend i traded in my usual manner 1, 2 or 3 points,  the only exception being  where a game goes 2 goals clear, and then if there is money and points available i set a target at 5 points profit, and in some cases a further goal has been scored and therefore ive taken more profit.

i have had about 3 games this weekend where i was on an under market, and then goals starting coming, so i have either traded out for a red, spolit equally, or if i am half goal from my position, i have then loaded my position to reverse, ie the over goal returns a scratch position.

im happy now with how I am doing this, and as the money increases, i am taking more time, before taking a position, so conversely to some people I am most definitely not risking stake for the sake of it.

I am now looking for net 20 market points profit per day, i think that during fri, sat and sunday thats easily achievable, but during the week evenings dont know if there will be enough games to get it.

yesterday i achieved 29 pts, and today 39 pts,
conversely friday less than 1pt
and thursday 24 points

so have a great week

martin

great stuff martin glad its goin well. been pre game trading all week with sum bets gettin matched early in running during a match these are some of the bets.

porto vs man city layed porto @2.5 backed @2.66
stoke vs valancia layed valencia @2.58 and again @2.42 backed at 2.68
millwall vs bolton layed bolton @2.66 backed @2.9
sunderland vs arsenal layed sunderland @2.94 backed @ 3.2
crawley vs stoke layed stoke @2.04 backed @2.2

placed green across all three outcomes in the match odds to guarantee a profit.

smithy

good to hear it, i dont get the time to pre game really, it may be something that  i look at in a couple of months, with a seperate fund.

martin

ino wat your saying martin about the time with pre game trading. i have time to check match odds whilst at work then  i'm usually at home when matches are around kick off so i'm able to trade.

in -play would be something i'm looking into to try an find an edge as the prices don't move as much pre match so its harder to make money.

good stuff martin.  interesting thread.

best thread on here for many a year..should really be on general betting maybe, where it wont keep disappearing, although i accept it is predominantly football related

Great to see this thread still going!

I always feel more comfortable trading than straight betting. Less profit but more control

thanks to all for the recent input,

took a look at the week night availabiliy, and therefore have set out a template of 10 points per night 4 days per week, and 20 points on 3 days, ie friday, saturday, and sunday, anything more is a bonus.  at the same time hit the daily target then take time off to relax.

like i think Quin said, if you  concentrate on the points as opposed to the money then it makes things easier.

the control element is very important, as is the discipline.

id rather keep this topic on here as i only trade football, but would move it if required.

cheers all

thanks to all for the recent input,

took a look at the week night availabiliy, and therefore have set out a template of 10 points per night 4 days per week, and 20 points on 3 days, ie friday, saturday, and sunday, anything more is a bonus.  at the same time hit the daily target then take time off to relax.

like i think Quin said, if you  concentrate on the points as opposed to the money then it makes things easier.

the control element is very important, as is the discipline.

id rather keep this topic on here as i only trade football, but would move it if required.

cheers all

thanks to all for the recent input,

took a look at the week night availabiliy, and therefore have set out a template of 10 points per night 4 days per week, and 20 points on 3 days, ie friday, saturday, and sunday, anything more is a bonus.  at the same time hit the daily target then take time off to relax.

like i think Quin said, if you  concentrate on the points as opposed to the money then it makes things easier.

the control element is very important, as is the discipline.

id rather keep this topic on here as i only trade football, but would move it if required.

cheers all

must have press the button  3 times sorry.

another great thing i find is  what just happened in the Buraspor game

i opened a position on u4.5g when it was 1-0, the odds closed and the position closed out for 3 points, then a goal was scored, immediately odds went back out to 1.06 moved to 1.04, so opened a position a closed out at 1.03, so good start to the evening.

martin

great stuff mart, how are you finding things on the mental side of things? i found it can get quite tedious and alot of patience is needed and the temptation to splurge out on a "bet" would always get the better of me, mainly because the stakes i was using were quite low so the profit wasnt to high which really tested my patience. are you using set stakes so profit is the same on each trade and liability is manageable or are you increasing stakes as the bank grows? seems like youve got a good system set out now with the points targets you have set for yourself, keep up the good work!

quin

ive split the playing bank into 3 so that i have a maximum of three open positions, as the bank increases the stakes can increase, but to tell the truth the stakes may stay the same during the trading period, and then increased to the new figure the following day.

its not boring, cause im monitoring 3 open positions, and looking at what is going on in the next games to see what opportunities there are, against their previous stats, so if i see a game i then check my reference sites to see what happened in the past.

im not tempted to throw any rogue bets, as i have set out targets with upper and lower parameters, for each 21 and 30 day period.

dont get me wrong this isnt easy, im looking to work hard to achieve.

martin

as long as your organised and have discipline your half way there, so fair play to you. i only ever had one position open at a time, maybe two sometimes if they were on the same game (u2.5 and u3.5 for example), how do you keep tabs on all the positions? do you just open up extra tabs on your internet explorer or have you got betting software? i downloaded the geeks toy once but i didnt like the interface so never really took the time to get used to it as im quite happy with the one on the betfair site, im not sure if its true but im sure ive heard people talk of softwares that miss out the 8 seconds to put the bet on inplay, which would definately come in handy.

quin

i run open tabs the open positions on the left and reference sites on the right.  i am running this on one screen at the moment, but i want to beef it up, to 2 screens, and quite large screens hopefully.

i downloaded geeks and bet angel, but and have tried them, but not over the moon about them.

one thing that i need to try and get round is where an in play bet is cancelled at the time of a suspended market, as i have to reset the bet to close a position, so anyone with a pointer in that direction please let me know.

i use the grid on the betfair site, and the graphs to track the money movement, i dont think you can get rid of the inplay time delay.

update for this evening i got 7.2 points profit, not bad for less than 3 hours work.

tomorrow there are about 35 games that i will work.

martin

thats some pretty hardcore trading, i make it around 220 trades at 0.03 gain per trade!! 2 screens is definately an advantage my brother had 2 screens set up when he was in england but that was just so he could watch a game on one and look at the odds on the other, not really necessary in his case but it certainly helps when you have bets on multiple markets, youll have a room with monitors covering the walls at the rate your going haha  . im sure that there is a box that you can click on the my bets section, something like keep bet or something like that, i never used it myself but im pretty sure it has something to do with keeping the bet in place after the market has reopened from suspension.

quin,

read the first line then went straight to my account, ive done 14 trades this evening, actually very quiet for me.  i have had other stuff to do this evening, so didnt want to leave any open positions, so i expect that i have lost a few points that disappeared as time went on .

and i think ive only churned 4 times my bank balance this evening.


i have the room, and i would love 4 screens, 1 for sky/feed, 1 for internet pictures, others for open positions, etc, dell and hp do a fantastic touchscreen, which one of my clients use, and the betfair site is great to use on it, as well as bet angel.

but i need to be making a decent amount per month to justify that outlay and set up, it would be an addition to my home office.

the truth is i quite like it on the one set up i have at the moment, but the truth is i will need a second screen if i want to scale this up.

martin
martin

ahhhh its just you said you made 7.2 points? i thought you meant made your stake back 7.2 times, maybe you meant ticks? how scaleable do you think trading is on betfair? as i have had success trading and have a pretty succesful system but the maximum stake i got up to was £30, which is where the impatience creeped in with the low profits. im 22 today so im only young so i want to do something with my life, im in the process of joining the army but obviously after some years doing that i would like to use the money that i would have saved up to start what i was doing again but with higher stakes (more profit, less loss of interest and patience will not be tested), i know i can make with ease 25% back on my stake a day, which with decent stakes is a decent ammount of money.

quin

when i talk about points 1.05 closing down to 1.02 is a 3 point profit against the stake, therefore £1000 stake gets a £30 gross profit.

my total bank is divided by 100 to find the point value, therefore if there were £900 in the bank, then a point would be worth £9 so a 10 point day target is £90 and a 20 point day target is £180.

obviously the larger the point gain per trade, the lower the total bank turnover will be.

martin

ahhh yeah i get you now, 1 point is 1% so 1 tick, just got a little confused because i say 1 point is 100% or 100 ticks, you also work on % gains on overall bank? i used to always work on % gains off stake so my numbers would mean slightly different things to yours, what about your views on how scalable trading is on betfair?

quin

i dont know how scalable this is, there are rumours around that some people make a living doing it, but what is the definition of 'a living' 20k 30k 100k ??? or more.

it does appear that there is a lot of money on offer to be matched and then you look at the traded values, which can be significantly less, i think some people will place a whole load of money in the market, and as soon as a value is matched, the unmatched values cancel themselves out.

and also what is the longevity of doing this ?? before you go insane, or loose interest, i think you need to set achievable goals and then achieve them.

im staking over £100 per trade, without any problems, when i hit a certain figure then a proportion of profit will be withdrawn, which will reset the stake level for the next 30 day period back down the money range.

martin

I have basically been doing this for a while now to get betting money for risky bets.  I have posted most my bets up on the under 6.5 goals challenge.  I usually go for a large goal cushion for unders and trade out when I see fit or earn a certain percentage (1 tick = 1 percent for me).
I find it quickly adds up and then I use a portion of my winnings on riskier trades for more points - riskier ones being backing the favourites when 1-0 up either HT or FT and trading out but usually they get a second before odds drop enough.
Current bets on u5.5 Instituto after 3rd goal and under 3.5 in Libertad after 1st goal.  Trading is by far the best way to build a bank on here.

Well i finished yesterday on 9.38 points, so only .62 point short of the target.  so im happy with that.

martin

a question

does anybody use Bet market trader, by betgrail, what interests me is the resubmit feature for football games after market suspended.

any comments

martin

so,

real madrid go a goal up, and the stats and pundits say game over, i take a position on RM to win, and then green out across all three outcomes when ive got my points, i had the game on the monitor, and at 80 minutes closed out, i then did the same on the bologna match, even though they are 2 up and the others are a man down, but ive got my profit and job done.

open positions are risky positions.

martin

a net gain tonight of 19.89 points,

bank is now at 6.8 times the opening balance on feb 3rd.

took a position in the kettering match, so had a relatively easy evening, had to do other work so couldnt spend the time i wanted to trading, but achieved the required points.

martin

martin do you put your entire balance at risk during a trade? when i say risk..obviously you wouldnt lose it all if it turned against you but would take a small red, however if you are risking a large ammount in play be very carefull in case betfair lost the live feed as this would cause a suspend, and seriously put your bank at risk

sweetchildofmine,

good point about the feed, duly noted.

i divide my total bank by 3, put 2/3rds in reserve and then by 3 again, so that i have a maximum of three open positions.

lets not fool ourselves here, like a whole load of thinks in life, you do need an element of luck, or more you dont need to be unlucky. 

this is why i only go for a couple of ticks per trade. 

yes you are right if a match goes against i will red out, and then have to work another match to zero it, never try to chase in the same match, pointless.

martin

very interesting. what, in your view makes a trade better than a normal bet? and how to you spot a good one?

if the market is correct then a trade should just be like a normal bet just higher stake, lower risk and you're only in the market for a short time.

hi guys pre off trades so far this week:

brentford vs carlisle layed brentford @2.1 backed @2.2
napoli vs chelsea layed napoli @2.3 backed @2.3 looked dangerous early doors so traded out.
blackpool vs west ham layed blackpool @2.58 and topped up again @2.44 right on kickoff. backed at 2.7

trading goin well

well played smithy91. it's my view that how you deal with losses is key to being a good better/trader.

would have you redded out or waited a bit when chelsea scored first last night (saying you didn't trade out early)? cheers

@goergegeorge nice one mate. i would of traded out immediately after chelsea's goal and had a green book. decided to trade out with no profit as napoli looked dangerous early on.

a very simplistic way to look at the difference between a bet and a trade.

a bet- you place the bet hoping for a definitive outcome,

a trade - you place a bet and then close out the trade at a pint you decide, either to take a profit, a scratch, or a loss position.  you also have the opportunity to take a profit across all outcomes, therefore the result at the end of the event is of no interest.

martin

cheers martin, well put. good luck with your approach!

i dont profess to be the best, or even near the best,butone way i look at this is, if im going to sit in front of a pc for a couple of hours every evening, then i might aswell make something for doing that.

i have an interest in trading, years and years ago i did a bit of options buying and selling, i also have a mindset for profit, and always have had, so from that point of view those elements are sorted.

now its about how to achieve that.

martin

so

man city porto,

at 1-0 i take a position on man city at 1.28 back, i watch the game, not convinced, so i then come out of that for a 1 tick loss, (covered on other games)  i then take a position at 1-0 on under 3.5 goals, then 2-0 so i trade out, red on u3.5, green zero over 3.5 goal 3, and the goal 4 do in so no loss on that position.

so after that lot has sorted itself out UP 0.65 point so far.

martin

martin
what you are doing is actually gambling.
having an open position when a match starts is GAMBLING.

otherwise id call myself a trader.

i know im not.

+5.9 points this evening, so far, so only 4 points to go, to the magic 10 points, with plenty of opportunities.

martin

Why do you think you are trading rather than placing thousands of individual bets? Your pot will run dry but it will just be a slow death rather than a quick one!! For example if you were 'trading' the over/under 2.5 in the Man City game earlier having backed unders with a view to getting out after 2/3/4/5/ ticks, what do you do after 17 seconds when a goal has already gone in? Trade out to guarantee a 50% loss? Wait till you can trade out for a 25% loss? What happens if another goal goes in straight away? What do you do then? I know I am using the over/under 2.5 as an example but the same applies for over/under 3.5/4.5/5.5/6.5!! You are not trading just gambling!!

redferrari

i never take a 2.5g position at KO, i only ever look at taking a position in the goal market usually half time at the earliest, it will then be the highest market available at that time,

ie if 0-0 i will only look to go in at 4.5 or 3.5 goals, very rare to take a 1.5 or 2.5g

with regards to a slow death, i will take your point aboard, however my bank is now at 7 times the opening balance for 19 days work.

i took a red out position on another game this evening, but i am still at 4 points up for the evening, and bank at 7 times.

martin

I can't see what your edge is? Just because you are giving yourself a few goals buffer does not make it any safer!! The prices just move slower the further you are away from the current number of goals, whatever that market is. What are your rules on 'redding' out how much of the bet are you prepared to guarantee to lose? Does that change? What calculations have you done to asertain whether this will be profitable over the long term? How many guaranteed losses have you catered for on the trot so that you don't lose the lot? These are all things you need to know now. I admire what you are doing but there are lots of people who have gone skint by 'trading' trust me!!

my exposure per position is a maximum of 11% of the bank value.

i  had a red out position this evening, that was 8% of stake.

a fortnight ago i changed what i did after taking advice off here, i lost on two consecutive days, that then set me back 3 days, however i am back on track because im taking less riskier positions and looking for less movement.

as i have said before, anything you do, whether it be buying shares, trading currency or playing the betfair markets, contains risk, and therefore a gamble.

if i get wiped out, im big enough to put my hands up and say so.

martin

ok,

so ive finished this evening +7.4 points,

that is an average of 20.7 points per day from last Saturday, which is 33 points ahead of target.

so im a happy person.

martin

best of luck.....you ain't a trader tho....you are a punter....don't try and make yourself something you aren't

so traders dont gamble at all then? they just wallow in a risk free pool

Definition of trading

To buy and sell (stock, for example).
To trade something in for something else of lower value or price

Definition of gambling

An act or undertaking of uncertain outcome; a risk: I took a gamble that stock prices would rise.
To put up as a stake in gambling; wager.
To play a game of chance for stakes.

I believe what martin is doing falls more into the definition of trading than gambling.  There is no uncertain outcome or chance in what he is doing. Trading is a kind of gambling, as with everything there is risk but I believe it is trading if the risk is controllable.

Everything in his trade is expected and definite.  If you bet on over 2.5 goals then you can not be sure a goal will be scored.  If you bet on under 6.5 goals you KNOW the odds will drop slowly as money is matched.  You KNOW that if a goal comes the odds will rise by x amount.  Therefore you are buying a stock at 1.05 and selling it for 1.04 that is not a gamble, it is a trade.  If the market moves against you (as it regularly does for traders in any sort of trade) then you take a loss due to you making a bad trade.  Gamblers do not try to win 1% of their stake with 10% of their bank.

loaded nails it in one

If he doesn't trade out as soon as the first goal comes then it becomes a gamble.

Cheers sweetchild, I do try

these people dont know what there talking about    so when you trade on the forex you KNOW FOR SURE which way the value of each currency will go? of course you dont you make a valued assesment and then act upon it. sports betting especially on the goals markets is actually less of a gamble then trading on the stock markets of forex because you do actually KNOW what way the odds will move over time, you then have to assess if you have enough time to make the trade. just because there is risk does not mean it is gambling, when you TRADE your full stake is not at risk because you TRADE out for a red if the market moves against you, just as you would on the stock market or forex with stop losses.

loaded beat me to it haha

well that seemed a bit heated, didnt it, the great thing about forums, and the human race in general is that everybody has an opinion, and that opinion is different to that of others.

ALSO, eveybody assessing risk in a different way, a mountain climber, with knowledge and experience assesses risk in a different way to that of a novice climber.

i will carry on doing what I am doing, whether it be trading/gambling.

i know of only 2 professional gamblers, one backs horses, one plays casinos, i have another colleague who has a circle of at least 10 betfair traders, if i was a £1 behind those traders i would be a happy man. and they do make a good living from it. 

the fact is though that each individual needs to learn how to do it. and that is what I am doing.

have a great day

martin

Yes this is exactly what forums are about.

So talk me through your trading on the Man Utd v Ajax game tonight. Where you going to start? Backing under 5.5 @ 1.07?

With a view to getting out at 1.05?

i think for today back valenthia , lay mantsester and trade out before kick off
whats your opinion;

Think Man/Utd will be Biggar than 1.45 come 18.00 hrs

redferrari

i cant tell you what i will do, there are i think 8 games going off at 8pm, it all depends what happens in the game,

i wont take a position in it until half time at the earliest, and then it depends on the score, some pundit sites have it at 2-0 and 3-0, if it were to go 2-0 then i might take a win position for a couple of points, and then look to see what money is in the goals market.

however i expect there will be a lot of money in the markets queued up, so i may not even go into it.

martin

So there is no strategy from the outset? I thought you knew which way the prices would move?

redferrari

i mean there arent chosen matches, i look at all matches through an evening, and depending on stats and what is happening in a game, will dictate if a position is to be taken.

ie 2 goal lead may take a position in the match odds market
lack of goals as time moves on, then a position in the goals market.

as i only take 3 positions as a maximum then if the funds are available and the conditions right a position may be opened.

martin

Martin what do I do in the Arsenal v Spurs game?
I backed under 5.5 @ 1.08 with a view to trade out @ 1.05, after the 1sr goal the price was 1.15, 2nd goal 1.19, 3 rd goal 1.38 and 4th goal 2.10 and currently 1.85.
Can't see how you are not gambling to be honest, another 2 goals and I'm gone!!

Theres the 5th goal! Under 5.5 now 4.6 to lay!!!

Oh dear Martin, betting bank gone, 4-2! 6 goals and Spurs were winning 2-0 at 1 point, hope you haven't done your brains in as well!

And theres the 7th goal!!

Why did you have your entire bank on one game?

hello all.

been busy with my work, and therefore input on here has been zero,

i noted redferrari running commentary on the arsenal spurs game, firstly if i have checked my stats for that game, and several of my referene sites showed it would be an over 2.5 goals, and therefore i would have gone on the over 0.5 goals as opposed to and under goals market.

and checking my records i didnt touch that match.

but i agree, you have to reduce any loss on any event, if there is a turn against you. 

there are many differing opinions about how many points you should take per bet/trade and many differing opinions on what type of games. 

i have now focussed on what i am doing and what my daily target is. in my mind i think that the target, both profit and loss should be adhered too.

i will see where i get to over the next 4 weeks, 8 weeks, and 12 weeks.

regards

martin

How are you progressing?

Combing through this thread was worthwhile, there are what 1st appear to be Valuabale Insights Lying Around to be Hoovered Up..................and i have Hoovered them Up!

Will now do a bit of research on them.

Thanks you contributors!

fookin' boring - might as well study for an accountancy degree

i try to trade or tell myself i trade but usually just betting really

A question for those who consider themselves traders, especially for the higher goal markets like U 4.5, 5.5 or 6.5: do you (or should you) always trade out when the market goes against you with an early goal? Even with two usually low-scoring teams?

A good example of this was Racing Club v Colon yesterday. I got on U 4.5 a couple of minutes in. Just as my lay bet for 3 ticks was getting eaten, Racing Club scored in the 11th minute and I let the remainder run until I got the rest (which took until the 33rd minute), and as it turned out there wasn't another goal until right at the end. I understand what I did isn't really trading in the best sense, but it seems like you would be taking a lot of small losses unless you can solely pick games that stay scoreless through the first 10 or 15 minutes at least...

It depends. You have to have an exit strategy if you're trading. That could be put in what you can afford to lose and let it run, or always trade out if the market goes against you. But you have to adapt and stick to your plan.

not seen this thread for a while.

i had a great season from pre off trading but had a nightmare trading in play on euros.