Everton price is way off

Away at Villa - outplayed them and should have won.

Yak could have had a hatrick at fulham last week.

Everton players desperate for a win.

Hence the price you mention.

Thanks for response - the 'need to/ desperate for' argument always feels like post rationalisation once a decision has been made.  Aside from dead rubbers (or Torres [;)]) aren't players always looking to win?

There's no reason to suspect that Bham aren't up for it - with McLeish - Bowyer. Johnson et al they're a very up for it kind of team?

Birmingham unbeaten at home for a year in Prem, that has to end soon imo

Wouldn't back them at 6s. Very, very poor team.

I hope Everon win as I support them but I wouldn't back at this price. Birmingham as it has been mentioned are impressive at home. If pushed I would back the draw, maybe even 0 0.

Diaz Joined: 27 Feb 10
Replies: 1346 01 Oct 10 13:18 
Wouldn't back them at 6s. Very, very poor team. Mischief


You certainly know how it feels, Diaz.

Everton playing better than results, due a win plus Birmingham due a home defeat.

Yes but surely as a run like that increases (and I think a year is long enough to constitute a trend rather than an anomoly) the price should increase too. 



And again 'it has to end some time' is post rationalisation that shouldn't show up in prices!  Man Utd have an amazing home record but you don't back the opposition 'because it has to end sometime' they get laid out to a higher price because people think the run will continue.

The current Everton team are by far and away not the strongest team that Bham have played in that year so I don't get why their price is so low.  That's not to say that they can't win, I just don't understand the logic in relation to the other prices this w.e

I guess I am looking for information which convinces me that the price has some basis in reality  and that I therefore shouldn't expect price movements... still looking!

During this run, Everton came the closest to ending it racing into a 2-0 lead last season before a relatively weak surrender.

However, as an Everton fan, I can't for the life if me work out why we are favourites for this match!

Birmingham by relation are no Man U, that's My point.

So is a trend of Bham being undefeated at home for a year count less than the same trend for Man Utd?

They play the same teams?  Actually to answer that Q. yes it probably does count for more but what I'm arguing is that the value of that difference is far smaller than the price difference between what Everton would be away to Man U vs what they are

in essence Man Utd and Bham have had similar home records for the year but Everton's price doesn't come close to reflecting that

Birmingham are a mid table team, possibly overachieving at that. Because they have gone a year without defeat at home, I believe they are more likely, not less likely to loose their next home match in Premier league. It's not a science, just factors that odds compilers take into account.

What your saying Phill is that the more something has happened, the less likely it will happen again.  This is essentially 'reversion to the mean'.  Last year there was a paucity of draws across the premier league in relation to historical averages.  There wasn't any particular reason, it was just the way result fell.  Someone on here made a lot of money predicting that the 2nd half of the season would see an abundance of draws and they were right.

However I wouldn't classify the Bham home run in the same light.  It's longer than that and has logic behind it. I.e they're bloody well organised side.  It also becomes self-fulfilling to the extent that teams now a more likely to see a draw as a reasonable result rather than as 2 points lost.  I bet Moyes would take a point now if offered it.

I don't disagree, Everton would accept a draw from this game. But "trends" are just that, nothing last forever and less likely to do so if its not a top team involved. Bottom line is, if you think you have found some value, good luck to you, I am merely offering some (informed?) debate from the other side.

'But "trends" are just that, nothing last forever and less likely to do so if its not a top team involved'

Yep - I'd agree witht that statement I think. Nice to have a sensible debate on here for once rather than the usual eejits.  Just out of interest are you backing and at what price do you think they would be 'too low'?

Tempted to back Everton, for reasons given but waiting for team news first. Was expecting slightly better price so would not back at any shorter than available.