Football
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Going to split my bank in two and have two big bets on this market then leave Betfair until the spring.
Going for Sunderland @20.0 (dont laugh) and one other.
Any suggestions? Was going to go for Villa but not so sure now:/
Going for Sunderland @20.0 (dont laugh) and one other.
Any suggestions? Was going to go for Villa but not so sure now:/
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Replies: 40
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west brom?
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West Brom won't last. Nor will Blackpool. Sunderland look like an interesting bet. Newcastle?
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Wigan. That's my final answer. Lock it in. See you in May.
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ew.. that reeks. your wigan vs my west brom? [;)]
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We'll see
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ROVERS !!
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was looking for higher price the WBA and ideally one of the top 8 teams and possibly even Chelsea or Arsenal
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Don't bother with Chelsea , need at least 98 pts to win this , they might not get that if they don't lose another game
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So Arsenal need 89 and Sunderland 62!! Maybe nobody will win :/
West Brom as favourites needing 52? cannot see any of them hitting 98 (including handicap) or did last years winners succeed? I cannot see anyone since Fulham 08/09 getting that any points on handicap but to be honest I have never bet on it :/ |
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Back The Villa ????
Lay Spurs! I wouldn't be so sure that Villa will win the game, it all depends on who is fit. Carew, Agbon and Dunn all fighting for fitness. I wouldn't back us :-) Hope that helps |
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And I totlay misread that..will now look at the handicap :-)
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I've followed it for years ( tho' tbh i didn't pay any attention last year) but i think Fulham and Stoke both had over 100 in 2008/09.
I did use to have the stats for the winning total going back to 2000 or so (of course with different bookies it varies as to what the start h'cap was) . From what i recall there was one season when it was won with 95 or 96 s few around 98-99 and some where it was 100+ I backed Wigan in 2005/06 and they got 103 or something and still lost to West Ham ( 8pts clear at Xmas and 5 up with 6 to play  )Man United also got 100+ in 2006/07 but still lost the h'cap to Raeding. |
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I would have gone for Villa with O'Neil but that and losing 6-0 to the toon have put me off otherwise I wouldnt be asking the question and would have invested ;)
Maybe they more of interest now they have re appointed a good manager |
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People who haven't been involved with the market do tend to be suprised by how many pts you need in total to win it because , if the handicapping was accurate , then it would just be the same sort of total you need to win the title ( around 87-92 pts ) . But while it is easy to say Chelsea or United will finish somewhere between 85 and 91 as everyone has a clear idea of how good they are, it is much harder to assess what the lesser sides will do .There are several that you wouldn't be suprised if they finished anywhere between 35 and 50+ pts.
It's basically won by the most underated team .Either a side tht's expected to go down that finishes 12th or better or a lower half side from the year before that breaks into the Top 8. Backing all the promoted sides over the years you'd be nicely in profit as it's basically a bet at around 11/2 that seems to win 30% of the time. |
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Hmmm Tobemory looks like those you point out are teams clearly given too big a handicap and playing well above expected and of course thats the clue to finding the winner ;)
Yeah maybe you are right and most teams fall well short of 96 but maybe 1 or 2 a season have big improvements and I guess someone has to improve:) I would take even money that the handicap winner gets less than 98 points but do bow down to your knowledge seen as you have clearly followed it more recently than I ;) |
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Just looking at the market i do think Sunderland are a good pick at the odds as they have played 3 of the expected Top 6 already so should have a nice run of fixtures between here and Xmas.
Fulham and Blackburn should be up there but WBA seem short at 4.4! |
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Yeah sunderland could have beaten both Arsenal and Liverpool in last 2 weeks but drew both with freak/maybe dodgy goals, we got 58 and 57 points at turn of millenium and to beat that by ten will be pushing it!! I think it is the best team on paper in my lifetime an if the players gel we really could have a good season but 62 points I just dont know :/
I can see us taking 13 points out of WBA's lead, optimistic i know but I can see it;) |
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I didn't follow it last year , so don't know the start handicaps, but looking at the final table it seems likely the winner got a total around 91-94, depending on what Spurs and Wolves were given (as one of those 2 must have won it) . So maybe the handicappers are getting better
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yeah hopefully they are although its nice to spot what you consider a discrepancy;)
I think its a great bet to give you an interest for a whole season, every team has a suprise or better than average season now and again and its just having the hindsight or luck to pick them out:) One of the more interesting markets for the season I think |
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Stoke won it last year Tober I think.
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"i think Fulham and Stoke both had over 100 in 2008/09."
stoke (+56 or so) must have had bigger start after auto promotion than weak playoff blackpool side "I backed Wigan in 2005/06 and they got 103 or something" same again wigan +52 after auto promotion "Man United also got 100+ in 2006/07" again a big 11 point start over chelsea all wrongly priced I guess |
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gonna be hard to pick a side to get 98 points but you are rewarded with somewhere around the 19/1 mark if you manage to nail it ;)
Now i just want someone to match the rest or my sunderland bet @20;) please :) |
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Ah yes KR , they finished on 47 i see (had thought it was lower) I expect they had around +46-47 to stsrt with .I assumed Spurs had +low 20s (and got 70) with Wolves maybe +53 (got 38).
Yeah Jerclarke it's a fun market I used to have my own league table to track it, with the totals of h'cap+ real world ( it's funny on here at the end of the season when people who did h'cap bets with bookies in August come on here asking if anyone knows what the start totals were with particular firms as they've no clue who's winning) .I am gutted to say though that i've never won it somehow despite most teams i've backed finishing Top 4  . Wigan was sickening in 05/06 , cost me over 1K . They were 4pts up , last game of March , at home to West Ham (their only rivals) and 1-0 up in the 2nd half, it went to 1-1 (which i'd have been happy with) but West Ham scored a winner in the 96th minute and that was the turning point.I backed Hull in 2008/09 who were matched as low as 1.30 and stupidly failed to get my Raeding bet on in 2006 as i was unawre the 1st match was a lunchtime kick off and then the market was suspended. The only season i decided to just back all the promoted teams heavily - 2007/08 - was the only one where they were all as bad as expected. Looking at the old results i think Ipswich must have got about 112 in 2001! |
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Reading ffs, can't believe i did that twice in one thread [smiley:crazy]
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I was talking bollox earlier sorry. Birmingham p1ssed it last year of course. Stoke must have been the previous year.
Team Pts Hcap Total Birmingham 50 50 100 Aston Villa 64 27 91 Stoke 47 44 91 Blackburn 50 40 90 Tottenham 70 19 89 Chelsea 86 2 88 Wolves 38 48 86 Man Utd 85 0 85 Everton 61 24 85 Arsenal 75 8 83 Sunderland 44 38 82 Burnley 30 52 82 Man City 67 13 80 Fulham 46 34 80 Wigan 36 43 79 Bolton 39 40 79 Hull 30 48 78 West Ham 35 35 70 Liverpool 63 3 66 Portsmouth 19 41 60 |
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all in all its a great betting market for the speculative bet and for as little £25 (if your team wins it) you could be looking at a free season ticket :)
I can now watch MOTD every week and have an interest in nearly every game (up until my bet is sunk) and potential to land a large sum at the season end;) Thats when I get the rest of my bet matched :/ |
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ha ha yeah , course they did
So it was over 98 last year and another promoted side . I think 2008 it was Arsenal or Everton with around 96/97 |
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Yeah almost impossible for a top side to win it as they would have to get almost 100pts, which is very unlikely as they would have the league sewn up long before the end and start resting players for CL/cup ties etc.
Anyway that's enough advice from me as I am the main layer in this market!  |
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Night Rider are you laying Sunderland? I see there is a big lay at 18 and I am trying to get the rest of my bet matched at 20 but would meet you half way? ;)
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sure thing, have put up some @ 19 for you
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thank you sir, taken it all :) much appreciated and hope the market is kind to you ;)
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thanks, best of luck to you too.
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very sporting
I recall Chelsea may have won it in 2004/05 (depending on which bookies) as they got 95 + a 3 or 4 pts start from Arsenal , but almost impossible to win it from scratch. |
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I am still looking for 2nd team to back but Sunderland to me are the team with potential and I dont know enough about other teams to stake what is a tidy sum (compared to my earnings) on :/
I may go for 2 or 3 others and go for current outsiders |
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Birmingham again seem a decent price
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I have invested my other half in the rider cup so either wont now have another bet here or will return next week with much bigger bank for my final blow out:)
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I see Sunderland as more potential than Birmingham (same +36) and although they are 1.5 times bigger price i would swerve them
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I think Newcastle will finish higher than expected but their handicap mark was far too low because they were a big side in last ten years, think they will finish 14-15th which is good with the money they have spent
the bar stewards :p |
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West Brom are massive at 7-2...
Unless the manager goes can only improve and have already played 4 out of the big 6 teams,3 of them away. The squad is in fine shape as the League cup proved when Di Matteo made 10 changes and beat Man City impressively . |