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Hami
02 Aug 10 03:39
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Date Joined: 27 Jul 08
| Topic/replies: 2,972 | Blogger: Hami's blog
for 3 out of the 4 ws to be relagated this season

3 out of west ham, west brom , wigan and wolves?
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Report Robbie_Box August 2, 2010 8:28 AM BST
Have you not heard of Blackpool?????????
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer August 2, 2010 8:29 AM BST
It is not Wlackpool Robbie.
Report Robbie_Box August 2, 2010 8:30 AM BST
WinlessPool maybe
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer August 2, 2010 8:42 AM BST
I reckon that they will do better than the odds suggest.  Holloway is a great motivator and they will play with passion with many goals in their games and they will beat a good few in the bottom half of the League. It would not surprise me if they ended up 17th.
Report Alex the old wrinkled retainer August 2, 2010 8:49 AM BST
1.3 for relegation they are.  I don't fancy that but Wigan are odds on to beat them in the opening game which I reckon is too short, so I have had a small dabble.
Report Mick McCarthy For Pope August 2, 2010 9:50 AM BST
Someone asks a sensible betting question and no one is willing and/or able to answer it, why does that not surprise me?

Hami, the best way for you to place this bet is to have four separate trebles, perming the four different possibilities of any three being relegated. At current best fixed odds prices your "best" treble pays approx 62-1, whilst your "worst" pays 20-1. The cost of the bet to, say, a £10 level stakes unit will be £40, and your minimum return would be £210 and your maximum would be £630.

However, to do the bet as you request it requires you to adjust the stakes of each of the trebles to make the return consistent if any of them win. For example:

West Brom, Wolves, Wigan 20-1 £51 - total profit = £948
West Brom, Wolves, West Ham 38-1 £27.5 - total profit = £949.50
West Brom, Wigan, West Ham 38-1 £27.5 - total profit = £949.50
Wolves, Wigan, West Ham 62-1 £17 - total profit = £948

Total stake £123 - total return £949 - therefore the odds you're getting for any three of the four to go down is 7.71-1.
Report marychain1 August 2, 2010 10:18 AM BST
Blackpool are nailed on certainties for botom in my book, and they will do very well indeed to avoid the worst ever Prem record.

Their squad looks very ordinary indeed. Only Vaughan and Adam that I can see would get anywhere near any other Premier League side's first XI.

They have only got 16 professionals, of which 3 are keepers I believe, and they are trying to strenghten by looking at players like Franny Jeffers. I would love to stay up, but they have no chance. Improve the odds on any antepost bets by 33% this season by adding Blackpool to go down. It is going to happen.
Report diggler August 2, 2010 10:27 AM BST
last season betfair did a relegation tricast market. the odds on any particular treble would be higher than just multiplying the individual single prices, due to related contingency, so you should get better odds than what mick mcarthey for pope suggests
Report Mick McCarthy For Pope August 2, 2010 10:40 AM BST
That's correct diggler, if they put that market up and if there's reasonable liquidity in it. In the absence of this market you'll have to do the trebles. You can ask your bookmaker if they'll offer a special relegation treble price due to the bet being negatively related, but I know the answer you'd get from most.
Report diggler August 2, 2010 12:20 PM BST
fairly sure they will put it up,  plenty matched last season.
Report Hami August 2, 2010 1:50 PM BST
thanks mick

your always bound to get one decent reply when you post

i was thinking , would it be possible to be done like a lucky 15 bet and do the bet like that?

il wait and see if the relagation tricast market comes up on betfair first tho,

something tells me that this isnt really a bad bet at all , as has been said in this thread already , blackpool could surprise a lot of people this season ,

wigan cant keep fluking there way to saftey every season , the league wont be as poor for them to get away with it, wolves i feel are in the same boat, they got lucky last season that the league had maybe its 3 weakest teams in its history last season,

west ham a funny one , but we all know they can go either way ,

and west brom will always be in a scrap


il have a small bet on it when the market opens
Report diggler August 2, 2010 1:56 PM BST
dont do a lucky 15, not much chance of getting the four-fold up. :-)
might be worth sending an email requesting the market. probably wont do it till next monday at the earliest though anyway
Report Mick McCarthy For Pope August 2, 2010 2:35 PM BST
Worth trying to do the four trebles on the market diggler suggests, if betfair get it up soon and if there's the liquidity you need at prices better than those I mentioned above.

For what it's worth I think your comments about Wolves are a touch harsh. I don't believe they were the three weakest teams in Prem history, and even if they were, we finished 15th, i.e. above five teams, not just three. We've spent £15m ish in the market to improve all the positions where we struggled last season (left back, striker, winger key additions for us, plus a new centre back to add depth, all oif which have Prem experience). I don't see any reason why Blackpool especially, and West Brom, who yet again have not added to their squad when coming up, should be seen as weaker than the five sides we managed to finish above last season. Pesonally I think we're a stronger side, with lots of young players that will improve for their first year in the Prem.

Good luck with your bet, I hope the bet with WBA, Wigan and West Ham in wins for you!
Report Lady Margaret August 2, 2010 2:44 PM BST
Hopefully Betfair will have the relegation tricasts up again as was a good market to play last season.

Agree with Marychain though, Blackpool are locked on to go down - if you honestly think they will somehow stay up then simply lay them in the relegation market at a very nice price!

Blackpool, Baggies and Wolves to go down IMO - will be hammering into that on the tricast.
Report ritchiegillett August 2, 2010 2:50 PM BST
but west ham do not have Zola in charge who coundnt read a game and know when substitutes are needed anymore so that is probably worth 8/9 points....  a steady 10 - 14th place for the hammers this year.....

Blackpool / Newcastle / Wigan for me

i do think the baggies will be down the bottom but i hope they stay up because at least they try to play football....

If it was down to me I would relegate Bolton now and only have the bottom 2 go down
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