Giro GC contenders

Best Prices
http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/giro-ditalia/winner

Maglia Rosa Contenders


Nairo Quintana Movistar 10/11
he
Movistar have made it clear that they expect their lack of Grand tour titles to end this year. To this end, they have sent the big guns to the Giro. Nairo Quintana is a massive favourite for this. He’s an explosive climber that in this field all but maybe Rodriguez will struggle to live with. He has a very strong team behind him and following his second in the Tour de France last year behind Froome in his second (!) Grand Tour, he can win his first of many here. He’s short at 10/11, who knows what the pressure of Grand Tour favouritism will do? Of course anything can happen in a three week stage race but Quintana should win barring accidents and illness and I expect him to.

Purito Rodriguez Katusha 3/1

Even at 35, Purito is surely the only man in the race that can live with the climbing of Quintana. Rodriguez was in 3rd in the 2013 Tour de France, only 40 seconds behind Quintana, and by the third week they were both climbing supremely well. Purito has been incredibly consistent in Grand Tours, with 8 top 4 finishes since the 2009 Vuelta. Desperately unlucky not to have already won a Grand Tour title, the Spanish nearly man was second to Hesjedal in 2012 and should probably have won the Vuelta the same year. He has his usual support team of Moreno, Paolini and Caruso with him. He has to prove he is over the Amstel Gold crash that caused him to have off days in Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastonge-Liege but he will have plenty of time to ride himself into this race before the serious climbing starts in stages 8 and 9. I rate him the only serious danger to Quintana.

Cadel Evans BMC 12/1

The 2011 Tour de France winner is now 37 and he seemed to be on the downgrade when comfortably beaten by Wiggins and then Froome in the last two Tours but a podium in last year’s Giro shows there is life in the old dog yet, and this year he has looked strong Down Under and then when winning Trentino. The 2011 Tour de France champion has 5 Grand Tour podiums to his name in all, and although he might not be able to cope with the explosive climbing of Quintana, he’s probably the canniest of the main contenders and could well podium again.

Rigoberto Uran Uran Omega Pharma Quickstep 18/1

Uran was second last year for Sky after originally coming to support Wiggins and moved to Omega Pharma Quickstep to be a Grand tour team leader. I felt his form was somewhat underwhelming so far this year, but his time trial at Romandie was impressive, and shows the form he is in. He often seems to go under the radar and it would be no surprise to see him underestimated again. He has a strong looking team supporting him and I can see him being a podium contender at least, and he’s one of the ones that could feasibly win outright given a race going in his favour. I make him a small back at 18/1 and a bigger podium bet given a decent price.

Domenico Pozzovivo AG2R La Mondiale 28/1

Pozzovivo’s best Grand tour finish was 6th in La Vuelta last year, which included an incredible time trial, but he has 4 top 10s overall. His form has been solid this year, but his 5th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege shows what he is capable of when there’s a lot of climbing, and he and Moreno had the chasers worried for a long way in the final stages when they were off the front. I would be surprised to see him win here, or even podium but a top 6 finish is not unfeasible, despite the fact his team looks weaker than other contenders.

Michele Scarponi Astana 25/1

No. 1 as the GC man for Astana this year following Nibali’s win last year. Scarponi was given the 2011 Giro when Contador was banned for a positive clenbuterol test. Scarponi  also has two Giro 4th placed finishes to his name. On all-known form he can’t beat the best climbers in this race, but a top 6 finish certainly isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, and he has some strong climbers in support such as Aru and Landa.

Daniel Martin Garmin 33/1

Turning into a real leader for Garmin, and looked like he could repeat his 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege win when falling on the final corner after coming 2nd in Fleche-Wallone. Has won stages in Tour de France and La Vuelta but his 13th in the 2011 Vuelta remains his best Grand Tour finish so far. Whether he has the consistency to go through a 3-week Grand Tour remains to be seen but his recent forms looks as strong as anyone’s and the Giro has long been the target for this year.

Rafal Majka Tinkoff Saxo 50/1

A virtual unknown when he was announced as Saxo’s GC man for last year’s Giro, but the young Polish climber outperformed all expectations to finish 7th in only his 3rd Grand Tour. It’s unclear whether he or Roche are team leaders but he could go well again and it’s not hard to see him improving on last year, even if his form this season is unspectacular.

Przemyslaw Niemiec Lampre 50/1

Another of the surprise packages of 2013 back again to see whether he can make further progress, this young Polish climber could give another good account. He looked in good form in Trentino when he finished 3rd overall behind Evans and Pozzovivo, and finished 21st in Liege-Bastogne-Liege but was actually the first to attack from the front group on the final climb so must be in good shape. Niemiec has Ulissi and Cunego with him and so Lampre have options but Niemiec looks like he’s their best GC hope.

Ivan Basso Cannondale 50/1

Twice a winner in 2006 and 2010, it remains to be seen whether Basso can perform at anywhere near the level needed to threaten the best climbers in this race. Now 36 and he hasn’t shown anything this year that suggests he is capable of winning, personally I would find it a big shock if Basso podiumed, but he knows his way round a Grand tour having ridden in 17 and if Chris Horner can win a Vuelta then who knows? Should be a contender for a top 10.

Ryder Hesjedal Garmin 66/1

It isn't clear whether Hesjedal or Martin will be the team leader of Garmin, but Hesjedal is someone that knows what it takes to win this race, doing so in thrilling fashion two years ago. That win probably came as a bit of a surprise, but he did finish 6th in the 2010 Tour de France. Hesjedal has only really hinted at returning to the sort of form that could see him repeat that win, but he is one that would certainly be taken seriously by the main protagonists if he was near the top of the standings going into the third week.

Nicholas Roche Tinkoff 125/1

Roche might be going slightly under the radar here. Moved to Saxo last year, primarily as a super-domestique for Contador, and whilst he didn’t seem in great form in the Tour de France Roche proved he can compete with the mountain goats in the Vuelta. He won a stage, and only a bad day in shocking conditions stopped him being in contention for a podium. Only Horner, Nibali, Valverde and Rodriguez finished ahead of him, so that form stacks up well. Like Martin, he should be boosted by competing in his “home” Grand Tour, and if he rather than Majka is team leader, and he’s in the same form he showed last autumn, he could get a top 10 finish or better.

Dario Cataldo Sky 125/1

Cataldo won a stage of the 2012 Vuelta, winning from a breakaway and beating Thomas de Gendt to the win. Was snapped up by Sky as a stage race domestique and potential future GC contender. His time has come sooner than the hierarchy at Sky may have expected, Porte’s illness and Henao’s biological passport irregularities have ruled them out of this race and as such Cataldo is their only viable option to compete for maglia rosa.

Pierre Rolland Europcar 150/1

Rolland came to prominence when he won on Alpe d’Huez in the 2011 Tour de France, and he won another mountain stage the following year. Finished 10th and 8th in those two editions but hasn’t developed into the sort of GC contender many thought he might do yet, seemingly lacking both 3-week consistency and time trialling skills. This edition of the Giro might suit his style though, he has plenty of miles in the legs this year. I thought he looked strong at Liege-Bastonge-Liege, but he eventually finished 24th. He could outride his massive price here as sole leader of a Europcar team desperate to accumulate victories and points.

Julian Arredondo 200/1 and Robert Kiserlovski 250/1 both Trek


Kiserlovski is an interesting outsider. He was absolutely superb riding for Chris Horner in the 2012 Vuelta, on each mountain stage he was the last domestique to leave the wheel of his leader. He comes to this year's Giro as nominated team leader for Trek, and if he climbs like that he could outride his price. He's had 4 top 20 finishes in Grand Tours, with his best finish 10th in the 2010 Giro. He's done the miles this year, with 6th in Tirrenico-Adriatico, 10th in Catalunya and 16th in Basque Country. He's an outsider I feel could go well, but if it doesn't happen Trek also have the Colombian climber Julian Arredondo who has looked in excellent form in the mountains. He won last year in Langkawi and was 2nd in the Tour of Japan whilst riding for the Japanese Team Nippo. This form secured a move to Trek, and the 25 year old has quickly found his feet with a 4th in San Luis, 5th in Tirrenico-Adriatico and also impressing in Fleche Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege. It's interesting that while they are similar prices for the outright, with Arredondo slightly shorter; Kiserlovski is only 5/4 for a top 10 finish and Arredondo is 7/1.


Summary
I’m convinced Quintana is head and shoulders above this field and was tempted to have an extremely large bet on him at just above evens on the Exchange. As it is I will probably back him to cover my other outright bets and no more. I think Roche and Kiserlovski could be the ‘surprise’ packages. The books have been very slow to price up anything other than the outright market, but this is what I’ve gone for. With regard to the sprinters’ jersey, I’m not sure the books have taken into account the changes in the points system this year, and Rodriguez and Quintana are only a bit bigger than Kittel and Bouhanni, despite 6 pan-flat stages in the first 13. Flat stages are worth 50 points to the winner, with mountain stages only worth 15 points to the first over the line. Intermediate sprint points are equally skewed to favour sprinters so in my eyes the climbers have no chance at unless they are also contesting bunch and immediate sprints, which the GC men will not be. Of course, Kittel and Bouhanni may decide to abandon before the serious climbing starts, or they may not make the cutoff on some stages, but I think the chance to win in Trieste wearing the points jersey may be too hard to resist.

My bets
Outright winner
2pts each way Rigoberto Uran 18/1
.25pts each way Przemyslaw Niemiec 50/1
.25pts each way Robert Kiserlovski 250/1

Top 10 finish
3pts Nicholas Roche 7/4
1pt Pierre Rolland 3/1
.5pts Alexander Geniez 8/1
.5pts Jose Herrara 50/1

Points Classification
.5pt Marcel Kittel 15/1
.5pt Nacer Bouhanni 15/1

Wrong forum. On yer bike mate.

Group A (team guides from FIFA)


Brazil: Teresopolis

Best price 3/1
[b]FIFA key players
Striker Neymar is already being hailed as a man capable of playing a key role for the five-time world champions come Brazil 2014. Currently among the supporting cast in attack is the youngster’s former Santos team-mate Robinho, while Barcelona’s Dani Alves is a lung-bursting presence on the flank. Between the sticks, veteran goalkeeper Julio Cesar exudes confidence and security to the rest of the backline.
My key player

David Luiz
Coach: Luiz Felipe Scolari
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Sweden 1958, Chile 1962, Mexico 1970, USA 1994, Korea/Japan 2002 (Winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Mexico 1983, USSR 1985, Australia 1993, UAE 2003 (Winners), FIFA U-17 World Cup Egypt 1997, New Zealand 1999, Finland 2003 (Winners), FIFA Confederations Cup Saudi Arabia 1997, Germany 2005, South Africa 2009 (Winners)[/yellow][/b]

[colour=red]Croatia: Mata de Sao Joao

Best price 200/1
[b]FIFA key players
Experienced captain Darijo Srna is a born leader, and playmakers Luka Modric and Niko Kranjcar can always be relied upon for moments of inspiration. Kovac presides over a wealth of international-class attacking talent including Eduardo, Ivica Olic, Nikita Jelavic and Mario Mandzukic.
My key player

Luca Modric
Coach: Niko Kovac
Best performance in a FIFA competition: 1998 FIFA World Cup France (Third place)[/b]

[color=dark green]Mexico: Santos

Best price = 150/1
[b]FIFA key players
After an agonising qualifying competition full of setbacks, coaching changes and tactical reshuffles, predicting how the Mexicans will fare at Brazil 2014 is no easy task. While El Trican count on a band of high-profile overseas-based players, spearheaded by Javier Chicharito Hernandez, Andres Guardado and Giovani dos Santos, the last few months have shown that the latest wave of young players also have much to offer, chief among them their London 2012 hero Oribe Peralta, Raul Jimenez and Carlos Pena. Now that they have safely secured their ticket to Brazil, the Mexicans have time to find some stability and build for the future.
My key players

Oribe Peralta
Current coach: Miguel Herrera
Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA Confederations Cup Mexico 1999 (winners), FIFA U-17 World Cup Peru 2005 (winners)[/color][/b]

Cameroon: Vitoria

Best price = 1500/1
FIFA key players
My key player

Stephane Mbia
Samuel Eto'o remains the world-class threat up front, although the charismatic figure, who still serves as captain, has gone in and out of the team. But even without the Chelsea veteran, the side if loaded with experience and high-level talent. Nicolas N'Koulou, Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Aurelien Chedjou remain vital at the back, while the midfield is even more loaded with Alex Song, Jean Makoun and Stephane Mbia at the heart of the team.

Coach: Volker Finke
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Italy 1990 (Quarter-finals), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Sydney 2000 (Winners)

Group A summary
Brazil are hosts, have not qualified and seemingly lack the star quality of previous generations. There have also been questions about the organisation of and support for this tournament. However, they have been handed a very friendly group, and they should take at least 7 points. They showed when the won the Confederations Cup last year that they have several players that leave their moderate club form well behind when they pull on the yellow shirts. I suspect that, like during the London Olympics, public support will grow and grow for this tournament like a rolling stone as it progresses and I think the tournament will be a roaring success. In this climate, anyone who wants to win this World Cup is going to have to perform the feat of beating Brazil on their own patch. I don't know who can do that and Brazil are going to go very close if not all the way. Croatia are seen as the Brazil of Europe because of their technical ability, love of fast, possession football and flair players. I do feel that they aren't as strong as they have been in recent years, and although it might be best playing Brazil first up, I can see them having a poor World Cup, especially as they have to play Mexico and Cameroon in unfavourable hot, humid conditions in Recife and Manaus respectively. Mexico were extraordinarily fortunate to qualify for the finals, and although many sides have gone on to improve on the main stage after sneaking through I suspect Mexico may not be one of them. Cameroon are the outsiders to progress from Group A but I think the odds may be underestimating the Indominable Lions. They open up with a winnable match against Mexico then play Croatia in the hot and humid conditions of Manaus. They play Brazil last, and that match might be to decide the group winners.

Suggested Bets
Cameroon to qualify 5/1 (or Brazil/Cameroon straight forecast 7/1)
Croatia to finish bottom 4/1

Group A (team guides from FIFA)


BRAZIL: Teresopolis


Best price 3/1

FIFA key players
Striker Neymar is already being hailed as a man capable of playing a key role for the five-time world champions come Brazil 2014. Currently among the supporting cast in attack is the youngster’s former Santos team-mate Robinho, while Barcelona’s Dani Alves is a lung-bursting presence on the flank. Between the sticks, veteran goalkeeper Julio Cesar exudes confidence and security to the rest of the backline.

My key player: David Luiz


Coach: Luiz Felipe Scolari
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Sweden 1958, Chile 1962, Mexico 1970, USA 1994, Korea/Japan 2002 (Winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Mexico 1983, USSR 1985, Australia 1993, UAE 2003 (Winners), FIFA U-17 World Cup Egypt 1997, New Zealand 1999, Finland 2003 (Winners), FIFA Confederations Cup Saudi Arabia 1997, Germany 2005, South Africa 2009 (Winners)

CROATIA: Mata de Sao Joao


Best price 200/1

FIFA key players
Experienced captain Darijo Srna is a born leader, and playmakers Luka Modric and Niko Kranjcar can always be relied upon for moments of inspiration. Kovac presides over a wealth of international-class attacking talent including Eduardo, Ivica Olic, Nikita Jelavic and Mario Mandzukic.

My key player: Luca Modric


Coach: Niko Kovac
Best performance in a FIFA competition: 1998 FIFA World Cup France (Third place)

MEXICO: Santos


Best price = 150/1

FIFA key players
After an agonising qualifying competition full of setbacks, coaching changes and tactical reshuffles, predicting how the Mexicans will fare at Brazil 2014 is no easy task. While El Trican count on a band of high-profile overseas-based players, spearheaded by Javier Chicharito Hernandez, Andres Guardado and Giovani dos Santos, the last few months have shown that the latest wave of young players also have much to offer, chief among them their London 2012 hero Oribe Peralta, Raul Jimenez and Carlos Pena. Now that they have safely secured their ticket to Brazil, the Mexicans have time to find some stability and build for the future.

My key player: Oribe Peralta


Current coach: Miguel Herrera
Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA Confederations Cup Mexico 1999 (winners), FIFA U-17 World Cup Peru 2005 (winners)

CAMEROON: Vitoria


Best price = 1500/1

FIFA key players
Samuel Eto'o remains the world-class threat up front, although the charismatic figure, who still serves as captain, has gone in and out of the team. But even without the Chelsea veteran, the side if loaded with experience and high-level talent. Nicolas N'Koulou, Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Aurelien Chedjou remain vital at the back, while the midfield is even more loaded with Alex Song, Jean Makoun and Stephane Mbia at the heart of the team.

My key player: Stephane Mbia


Coach: Volker Finke
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Italy 1990 (Quarter-finals), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Sydney 2000 (Winners)

Group A summary
Brazil are hosts, have not qualified and seemingly lack the star quality of previous generations. There have also been questions about the organisation of and support for this tournament. However, they have been handed a very friendly group, and they should take at least 7 points. They showed when the won the Confederations Cup last year that they have several players that leave their moderate club form well behind when they pull on the yellow shirts. I suspect that, like during the London Olympics, public support will grow and grow for this tournament like a rolling stone as it progresses and I think the tournament will be a roaring success. In this climate, anyone who wants to win this World Cup is going to have to perform the feat of beating Brazil on their own patch. I don't know who can do that and Brazil are going to go very close if not all the way. Croatia are seen as the Brazil of Europe because of their technical ability, love of fast, possession football and flair players. I do feel that they aren't as strong as they have been in recent years, and although it might be best playing Brazil first up, I can see them having a poor World Cup, especially as they have to play Mexico and Cameroon in unfavourable hot, humid conditions in Recife and Manaus respectively. Mexico were extraordinarily fortunate to qualify for the finals, and although many sides have gone on to improve on the main stage after sneaking through I suspect Mexico may not be one of them. Cameroon are the outsiders to progress from Group A but I think the odds may be underestimating the Indominable Lions. They open up with a winnable match against Mexico then play Croatia in the hot and humid conditions of Manaus. They play Brazil last, and that match might be to decide the group winners.

Suggested Bets
Cameroon to qualify 5/1 (or Brazil/Cameroon straight forecast 7/1)
Croatia to finish bottom 4/1

Group B (team guides from FIFA)


Spain: Curitiba


Best price = 7/1

FIFA key players
Though there is no doubt that Spain’s embarrassment of midfield riches, featuring the likes of Xavi, Andres Iniesta and Xabi Alonso, has been integral to their major trophy triumphs, La Selección are strong across the board.
The men in red have a phalanx of very reliable keepers to call on, headed by Iker Casillas, while Sergio Ramos and Gerard Pique have consolidated their positions as the leaders of a defence in which left-back Jordi Alba has gone from strength to strength. Ramos and Alba are also a threat in the opposing box, and in recent times have made goalscoring contributions that have been almost as decisive as those of the front men.
With both David Villa and Fernando Torres struggling to find their touch, Pedro has distinguished himself as an attacking spearhead, ably supported by Cesc Fabregas, while Alvaro Negredo has begun to stake a compelling claim of his own for the striking role.

My key player:Diego Costa


Coach: Vicente del Bosque
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup South Africa 2010 (Winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Nigeria 1999 (Winners), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Barcelona 1992 (Winners)

Netherlands: Rio de Janeiro


Best price = 33/1

FIFA key players
Robin van Persie's blossoming into one of the finest strikers in the world has been a huge boon to the Dutch, with the Manchester United marksman topping the goal-scoring charts with 11 goals. He was able assisted in that department though by the likes of Jermaine Lens - who has progressed into a key part of the Oranje outfit - and Rafael van der Vaart. Arjen Robben continues to be a menace on the wing, while formerly promising youngsters such as Kevin Strootman and Daryl Janmaat are now key components of the side.

My key player: Arjen Robben


Coach: Louis Van Gaal
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Germany 1974, Argentina 1978, South Africa 2010 (Runners-up), FIFA Futsal World Cup Netherlands 1989 (Runners-up), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament London 1908, Stockholm 1912, Antwerp 1920 (Third place), FIFA U-17 World Cup Peru 2005 (Third place)

Chile: Belo Horizonte


Best price = 50/1

FIFA key players
Forwards Alexis Sanchez and Eduardo Vargas, as well as attacking midfielders Matias Fernandez and Arturo Vidal, are the leading men in a squad packed with talent and boasting viable alternatives in each position. Nor must we forget experienced performers such as Claudio Bravo, Gary Medel and Jorge Valdivia, or exciting rising stars like Jean Beausejour and Marcelo Diaz.

My key player:Arturo Vidal


Coach: Jorge Sampaoli
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Chile 1962 (Third place), FIFA U-17 World Cup Japan 1993 (Third place), FIFA U-20 World Cup Canada 2007 (Third place), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Sydney 2000 (Third place)

Australia, Vitoria


Best price = 1500/1

FIFA key players
Tim Cahill remains the team’s undoubted star and talisman with a stunning goal ratio from midfield and equally remarkable heading ability despite his modest stature. Long-serving skipper and central defender Lucas Neill remains a bedrock of the team and has never let his country down regardless of domestic form. A two-goal showing at South Africa 2010 has seen Brett Holman’s profile and importance to the team take a sharp upward trajectory with the midfielder displaying versatility and an impressive short passing game.

My key player: Brett Holman


Coach: Ange Postecoglou
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Germany 2006 (Round of 16), FIFA U-17 World Cup New Zealand 1999 (Runners-up)

Spain are very obviously favourites for this group. They only have one game in hot and humid conditions, and they'll probably pleased that it's against the other European side in the group Holland in Salvador. I don't feel that Spain are the same side that won the World Cup and European Championship in their last two tournaments though, and I'm keen to oppose them overall. They still have scores of excellent players, but their brilliance came from the midfield of Xavi and Iniesta. When those two were at their peak no-one could get the ball off them. Spain will try and play the same way, but without these two in decline it will be hard. They also had two of the best strikers in the world in Villa and Torres but even if Torres makes the squad he doesn't seem to be the same player and it remains to be seen if Costa or Negredo can fill the void. I would expect Spain to win this group but if they do they may struggle in their 2nd Round game and Quarter final in the sultry conditions of Forteleza then Salvador, and although looking at likely opponents they would be among the favourites to make the semis, I will look to oppose them in the outright. Holland have plenty of World Cup pedigree but I wonder whether this current crop is as good as previous generations. Van Persie and Robben will lead them but I don't know if they can beat Spain in hot conditions and I suspect they may be the ones to miss out in this tough group. Chile are said to be the team Brazil fear most. It's easy to see why, their style and formation is unique and they have of very talented players like Sanchez and Vidal. They have to beat the Socceroos first, but if they do they might be able to get through this group with two draws against Spain and Holland. If rank outsidersAustralia didn't have enough to contend with the draw in this group, they alsoo have the most travelling, with 1600-2600 mile round trips for each match, and if they avoid three defeats they should get an open-top bus ride on arrival back down under, which will inevitably and unfortunately be immediately after the groups.

Recommended bets
Spain/Chile dual forecast 21/10

Group C (team guides from FIFA)



Colombia: Cotia

Best price = 33/1

FIFA key players
With his sparkling form at Monaco, the prolific Falcao is now generally regarded as Colombia’s main attacking threat. The 25-year-old predator came to prominence at River Plate, first in the youth team and then with the senior side, before moving to Europe in 2009 where he won two Leagues, two Cups, three Super Cups and the UEFA Europa League with Porto, and then added another UEFA Europa League and European Super Cup with Atletico Madrid. As well as Falcao, the Colombians can also count on the experience of defensive duo Mario Yepes and Luis Perea at the back, as well as the creativity of attacking midfielder James Rodriguez and the goalscoring instinct of Teo Gutierrez, a lethal partner for Falcao up front.

My key player:Juan Cuadrado

Coach: Jose Pekerman
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA U-20 World Cup UAE 2003 (Third place), FIFA World Cup Italy 1990 (Round of 16)

Greece: Aracaju

Best price = 350/1

FIFA key players
Captain and seasoned midfield general Giorgos Karagounis remains the dominant figure in the Greek line-up but forwards Dimitrios Salpingidis and Mitroglou will certainly have a part to play and provide Santos with a variety of attacking options. He can also call on the experience of the likes of Theofanis Gekas and Giorgos Samaras, which will be key when the tournament begins. Incidentally, though, despite their array of attacking talent, it was Greece’s defence that stole the show in qualifying, laying the foundation for success by conceding just four times in ten matches.

My key player Giorgios Karagounis

Coach: Fernando Santos
Best performances in a FIFA competition: USA 1994, South Africa 2010 (Group stages)

Cote Ivoire: Aguas de Lindoia

Best price = 150/1

FIFA key players
Côte d’Ivoire boast some of the greatest individual talents in Africa. Forwards Drogba and Salomon Kalou are a formidable front pair, while midfield duo Didier Zokora and Yaya Toure perform key ball-winning duties in the middle of the park. Explosive winger Gervinho supplies service from both flanks, with Emmanuel Eboue and Kolo Toure providing a wealth of experience at the back. 

My key player:Yaya Toure

Coach: Sabri Lamouchi
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Germany 2006, South Africa 2010 (Group stages), FIFA U-17 World Cup Canada 1987 (Third place), FIFA Confederations Cup Saudi Arabia 1992 (Fourth place)

Japan: Itu

Best price = 200/1

FIFA key players
Having excelled during the last FIFA World Cup and the recent AFC Asian Cup, CSKA midfielder Keisuke Honda has quickly established his place as the team's new leader, filling the void left by Hidetoshi Nakata and Shunsuke Nakamura. Spearheading the attacking-line are Shinji Kagawa and Shinji Okazaki, who finished the continental finals as the team's top-scorer with three goals. Driving the central field alongside Honda is set-piece specialist Yasuhito Endo while Schalke 04 defender Atsuto Uchida is the key man at the rearguard.

My key player:Keisuke Honda

Coach: Alberto Zaccheroni
Best performances in a FIFA competition: Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Mexico City 1968 (Third place), FIFA U-20 World Cup Nigeria 1999 (Runners-up), FIFA U-17 World Cup Mexico 2011 (Quarter-finals)


Group C summaryI found this an intriuging group to figure out. The reason this group is so interesting is that both winers and runners-up will have a realistic chance of going a decent way in the tournament. Colombia are in as the seeds and rightly so, finishing 2nd only 2 points behind Argentina in qualifying. They have a fast-improving team of young stars and a home continent World Cup. With their team full of players plying their trade in the top European leagues, they should have enough to qualify from this group but who knows what the pressure of starting as favourites for their group will do?  The negatives for me are the lack of match practice for Radamel Falcao who has been picked despite not playing since Janaury, and (like Chile in Group B) the fact that none of their games take place in difficult venues for their opponents. I really like the look of Juan Cuadrado, the wide midfielder from Fiorentina, and think he could be one of the stars of the tournament.  If they do qualify, they will play someone from England's group in the second round and then they have a possible quarter final which will either be in Fortaleza or Salvador (depending whether they win their group or come second) and the conditions in those venues should favour the South American side. I can see Colombia going a long way in this tournament IF they get out of the group. What makes it difficult is that their group opponents are similarly difficult to assess. Ivory Coast have some old warhorses like Drogba, Toure, Toure and Zokora - and probably have the most experience of any team in this group. But what will be the key here, experience or mobility? They play Japan first up in Recife in conditions which may just favour the younger Japansese, but may benefit from the conditions in Fortaleza for their last group game against Greece. I wonder whether some of Ivory Coast's better players are now past their best? Their games against Japan and Greece also both involve 3,000 mile round trips from their home base in Aguas de Lindoia. Japan under Zaccharini could provide a minor shock by qualifying from this tough group. Pace and stamina is what Japan's style is about, and games in tough, humid conditions against Ivory Coast and Greece may find out their more experienced opponents. With Kagawa and Honda Japan will cause defences all sorts of problems and if they go through as runners-up they may find they can go all the way to the semi-finals as the runners-up slot would give them games in hot and humid conditions in the 2nd round and quarter-finals in Recife then Salvador. Greece are a team that continually get written off and continually surprise their critics. So I'm going to write them off and criticise them. I can't see them winning a game in this group. Colombia will have too much (although playing them first might be the best time to meet them) and then games against Japan in Natal and Ivory Coast in Fortaleza will probably suit their opponents more than them.

Suggested Bets
Japan to qualify 5/4

Group D (team guides from FIFA)


Uruguay: Sete Lagoas


Best price = 28/1

The key players
Strikers Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani have become the standard bearers for Uruguayan football and the national team over the last couple of years. The Liverpool man ended the South American preliminaries as the leading scorer with 11 goals, and was the second most-used player by coach Oscar Tabarez. The deadly duo have plenty of ballast behind them, with the vastly experienced Diego Lugano directing rearguard operations with aplomb, and Fernando Muslera providing a safe pair of hands between the posts. Even so, after an often-troubled qualifying campaign El Maestro Tabarez will no doubt be looking to shuffle his pack and build up some momentum ahead of Brazil 2014.

My key player = Luis Suarez


Current coach: Oscar Washington Tabarez
Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Uruguay 1930 and Brazil 1950 (winners), Men’s Olympic Football Tournament Paris 1924, Amsterdam 1928 (winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Malaysia 1997 (runners-up), FIFA Beach Soccer World Cup Rio de Janeiro 2006 (runners-up), FIFA U-17 World Cup Mexico 2011 (runners-up)

Costa Rica: Santos


Best price = 4,000/1

Key players
Costa Rica’s fortunes lie at the skillful feet of one Bryan Ruiz. Called “a truly special player” by former coach Rodrigo Kenton, Ruiz established himself at club side Twente in the Netherlands before moving on to Fulham in England. Now back in the Eredivisie with PSV Eindhoven, he ranks among the best playmakers in the North, Central American and Caribbean zone. Alongside Ruiz are a number of tried-and-trusted performers like Alvaro Saborio, Cristian Bolanos and outstanding goalkeeper Keilor Navas.The dribbling skills and all-around attacking play of the young Joel Campbell have made him another of Los Ticos’most valuable assets.

My key player = Bryan Ruiz


Coach: Jorge Luis Pinto
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Italy 1990 (Round of 16), FIFA U-20 World Cup Egypt 2009 (Fourth place)

Italy: Mangaratiba


Best price = 28/1

The key players
Captain and goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon is the only survivor from their 2006 triumph in Germany along with Andrea Pirlo, while a host of youngsters have broken into the team, such as central defender Andrea Ranocchia and midfielder Marco Verratti. Up front, the transition from old to new has been even more dramatic thanks to the emergence of Stephan El Shaarawy and Giuseppe Rossi's return to the fore. Also with a vital role to play are the maverick duo of Mario Balotelli and Pablo Osvaldo.

My key player = Gianluigi Buffon


Coach: Cesare Prandelli
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Italy 1934, France 1938, Spain 1982 and Germany 2006 (Winners), Men's Olympic Football Tournament Berlin 1936 (Winners)

England: Rio de Janeiro


Best price = 33/1

The key players
Wayne Rooney remains England’s greatest talent and his seven goals in six World Cup qualifying starts underlined his importance to Roy Hodgson's side. In midfield, Gerrard and Frank Lampard provide experience and creativity while young guns Jack Wilshere, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Andros Townsend highlight the Three Lions' attacking flair for the future. Danny Welbeck came into his own during qualification, scoring four goals on the way to the finals, while Daniel Sturridge's emergence as one of the English Premier League's top forwards can only bolster Roy Hodgson's attacking options for Brazil.

My key player = Adam Lallana


Coach: Roy Hodgson
Best performance in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup England 1966(Winners)

Group D summary

This is one of the groups I feel most strongly about. First of all, this is the group that will play most games in hot and humid conditions. Anyone that does get through this group could end up with a decent run to the semis. Or, depending on the other groups, coming second could lead to a quarter final against Brazil. Group favourites Italy are the most unfortunate in the group, playing all three of their games in difficult conditions. They open with England in Manaus, who will be similarly inconvenienced but their other group games in Recife and Natal will surely favour their opponents. Looking at Italy's squad, they have lots of defensive strength, but I don't think they have the forward power of some of the other favourites, and they also have a huge amount of travelling to do, with a 5,000 mile round trip first before two 3,000 mile round trips for their next two games. Italy may qualify, but I don't think they will win the group, and in my eyes they are too short to do both. Uruguay have plenty of goals in them on the other hand, and crucially, may be favoured by sultry conditions for their game against Italy in Natal. Their first choice line-up looks as strong as almost anyone in the tournament and another thing in their favour is that they open up against the team that is on paper the weakest in the group. I can see Uruguay topping the group and if they keep Suarez fit they could go a long way. England are difficult to work out. They come in with a lot of inexperienced players in their squad, and it is very difficult to see them coming out on top against very canny opponents like Uruguay and Italy. Qualification from this group would be a major success in my eyes, and anything more than that would be a major bonus. Something in their favour is that they play the two American sides in conditions that shouldn't prove too troubling, and don't have a much travelling to do after their first match. Indeed, England have the least travelling and are the only team in the group that only have to play in a hot and humid venue only once, so if they can avoid defeat against Italy in Manaus they could surprise and qualify. Costa Rica probably can't beat Uruguay in typical South American conditions, or England in cooler conditions, but they may have an advantage against Italy in their second game, to be played in Recife.

Suggested bets
Uruguay to win group D 15/8
Italy to finish bottom of Group D 16/1

Group G


Germany: Santa Cruz Cabralia


Best price = 6/1

FIFA's key players
Keeper Manuel Neuer is the undisputed No1, while many experts believe he is the real deal, equipped not only to follow in the footsteps of Oliver Kahn and Jens Lehmann, but also to develop into one of the best in the world. Full-back Philipp Lahm and schemer Bastian Schweinsteiger earned their international spurs long ago: each has reached 100 caps but is still at their peak.
The next generation appears immensely promising too. Former Real Madrid starlet Mesut Ozil, who now laces his boots at Arsenal was just 21 when he thrilled the crowds at the 2010 FIFA World Cup and is a gifted creative player with passing ability to match the best in the world. Up front, Thomas Muller won the adidas Golden Boot and was named Best Young Player at the 2010 finals, while youngsters Marco Reus, Andre Schurrle, Toni Kroos and Mario Gotze keep getting better and better.

My key player: Philip Lahm


Coach: Joachim Low
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup Switzerland 1954, Germany 1974, Italy 1990 (Winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Australia 1981 (Winners)

Portugal: Campinas


Best price = 33/1

FIFA's key players
As he showed in the play-off against Sweden, Cristiano Ronaldo is still very much Portugal’s go-to man, though the peerless Real Madrid star is supported is by a very able cast. The central-defensive pairing of Pepe and Bruno Alves is the cornerstone of a very solid rearguard that also features flying full-backs Joao Pereira and Fabio Coentrao. Joao Moutinho is the heartbeat of a creative midfield unit, while Nani can also be relied upon to shine alongside Ronaldo.

My key player: Cristiano Ronaldo


Current coach: Paulo Bento
Best performances in a FIFA competition: 1966 FIFA World Cup England (third place), FIFA U-20 World Cup Saudi Arabia 1989 and Portugal 1991 (winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Colombia 2011 (runners-up), FIFA U-17 World Cup Scotland 1989 (third place).

Ghana: Maceio
Current coach: Paulo Bento
Best performances in a FIFA competition: 1966 FIFA World Cup England (third place), FIFA U-20 World Cup Saudi Arabia 1989 and Portugal 1991 (winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Colombia 2011 (runners-up), FIFA U-17 World Cup Scotland 1989 (third place).

Ghana: Maceio


Best price = 250/1

FIFA's key players
There are few better midfields in the world than Ghana's as the Black Stars can call on veterans Michael Essien and Sulley Muntari as well as players hitting their prime like Andre Ayew, Kwadwo Asamoah and Kevin-Prince Boateng. Up front, the athletic Asamoah Gyan will be a vital focal point and no doubt anxious to prove that Ghana can be the undisputed class of Africa.

My key player: Kevin-Prince Boateng


Coach: Kwesi Appiah
Best performances in a FIFA competition: FIFA World Cup South Africa 2010 (Quarter-finals), FIFA U-17 World Cup Italy 1991, Ecuador 1995 (Winners), FIFA U-20 World Cup Egypt 2009 (Winners)

USA: Sao Paulo


Best price = 250/1

FIFA's Key players
Jozy Altidore, of English Premier League outfit Sunderland, emerged as the complete package during the final qualifying competition. Left out of the team due to poor form and attitude in the semi-final round,  Klinsmann reconsidered and wasn’t let down by his burly striker, who scored goals for fun and was the perfect partner for Clint Dempsey in attack. Landon Donovan, long-time creative icon of the US national, made a return to football after a self-imposed months-long ‘sabbatical’ and linked up beautifully with the sturdy central midfield presence of Roma’s Michael Bradley. With Tim Howard still a dominant presence between the sticks, the Americans are loaded with ability wherever you look.

My key player: Geoff Cameron


Coach: Jurgen Klinsmann
Best performances in a FIFA Competition: FIFA World Cup Uruguay 1930 (Third place), FIFA Confederations Cup Saudi Arabia 1992, Mexico 1999 (Third place), FIFA U-20 World Cup Saudi Arabia 1989 (Fourth place), FIFA U-17 World Cup New Zealand 1999 (Fourth place), FIFA Confederations Cup South Africa 2009 (Second place)

Group G Summary
Germany have a team absolutely full of stars. Neuer, Lahm, Hummels, Boateng, Khedira, Kroos, Gotze, Schweinsteiger, Ozil, Muller etc. They have amazing World Cup pedigree, and all their players play at top teams. They are a side that everyone will be afraid of and they are rightly in the top 3 in the outright market. But they have about the worst draw of the whole tournament in terms of European sides playing in difficult conditions. They play Portugal in Salvador then Ghana in Fortaleza and finally USA in Recife. I suspect that the conditions will favour all three of their opponents more than them. They also have a fair amount of travelling to do, with 700m, 2000m and 1700m round trips from their base in Santa Cruz Cabralia. Lastly, whilst their defence and midfield is full of starsthey seem to lack quality in the forward department, with only Klose and Hofland as out-and-out strikers. For these reason, and more importantly the price, I am going to take Germany on. Portugal are my idea of group winners. In terms of conditions they have landed on their feet. They play Germany in conditions the Southern Europeans might cope better with, and then when they play Ghana, unlike Germany, it will be in cooler Cuiaba. I worry about the amount of travelling the Portugese have to do, but speaking the language might be a big advantage for the Portugese, and they may get some support from their Brazilian "brothers" as Ronaldo has requested. But even on their own terms, Portugal are an excellent team packed with talent and with Ronaldo in the side anything is possible. Ghana are the other reason I am opposing Germany. They are nobody's mugs, and taking on Germany in Fortaleza gives them a chance of an upset. They are very well organised, physical and full of technical ability. If anything I always think Ghana would benefit from being a bit more flexible and attacking, but they have threatened to go a long way despite some shocking draws in previous tournaments and this one could be the one where they do. USA are the weakest team in the group in my eyes, have three games in hot & humid conditions and have a stupid amount of travelling to do. I don't see them qualifying, but they have excellent spirit and they are capable of throwing a spanner in the works of any of these three teams, which is another reason why I don't mind opposing the short-priced Germans in this group.

Suggested Bets
Lay Germany as group winners at 1.65 or less
Lay Germany to qualify at 1.18
Ghana to qualify at 3/1

Fireworks time...

Stage 16
PONTE DI LEGNO - VAL MARTELLO/MARTELLTAL
27th May 2014
139 KM - High Mountain




This is "only" 139km long but should be one of the best stages of the race. Three absolutely brutal climbs, which should also be taken extremely quickly because of the shortness of the stage. All three climbs are scary, but two of these climbs are monsters. 2,000 metres or more is where the air starts to thin, it becomes difficult to breathe, and people start to suffer. The Gavia is 2,600 and the Stelvio is nearly 2,800. These two climbs were cut from the race in 2013 due to bad conditions, not for the first time, but it should be raceable on Tuesday.

We start off at Ponte di Legno in Brescia, Lombardy and head north. After a short descent we start the first of the climbing immediately with the iconic and feared Gavia.





The Gavia is considered by some to be the hardest climb in Europe. Certainly in terms of altitude, length and average gradient of climb, it is at least the equal of anything else. The average gradient is 7.9%, it goes from 1258 metres at the base to 2621 metres at the summit. It reaches 16% in places, but it’s the last 3km, averaging 9% at the accompanying altitude will see some suffering.

In the 1988 Giro, only 90 seconds separated the top 7 in the GC when they took on the Gavia in horrendous, blizzard conditions. Johan Van Der Velde, the classy but mental Dutchman set off without gloves, arm or leg warmers or gilet. He would reach the summit before his pursuers Andy Hampsten and Erik Breukink, with everyone else trailing behind with bodies, breaks and gears all grinding to a halt in the sub-zero conditions.

Climbing the Gavia in those conditions is one thing, descending it is quite another. In his "Maglia Rosa, triumph and tragedy in the Giro d'Italia" Herbie Sykes says descending the Gavia in snow and ice is a horrific, unthinkable prospect. "Horribly steep, badly paved and full of craters, it's a racing cyclist's worst nightmare in the cold, let alone in sub-zero temperatures".

Van der Velde may have been a minute ahead at the summit but he stopped at the first hairpin in fear, and with the terror of that lottery of a descent lost 48 minutes (!) before the stage finish, 27km down the road in Bormio. The riders behind, many of them in tears from the climb now confonted their worst fears but the race director Torriani decreed the race would continue. Hampsten and Breukink slithered down as the snow turned to ice; Breukink took the stage and Hampsten the jersey. The existing maglia rosa Franco Chioccioli was inconsolable, the pre-race favourite Jean-Francois Bernard lost 9 minutes and Visentini, who had lost to Stephen Roche the year before, lost half an hour. The next day they were due to climb the Stelvio, but it was abandoned due to snow. Not even Torriani dared make the riders dice with death again.

The Gavia was due to be climbed again the following year and was deemed impassable due to snow. New race director Castellano had had enough. The conditions on the Gavia and the Stelvio were making a mockery of the race every year. They would no longer be climbed. The Giro did come back to the Gavia in 2008 when Emanuele Sella won the stage from Rovetta – Tirano, and the summit should be passable this year, but there has been a lot of work to get in it a state where it is raceable, and we will see 10 feet of snow on either side of the road.

After the Gavia we head further north to the Stevio pass on the Swiss border. The Stelvio is possibly the most historic climbs in all pro-cycling, and it’s a giant in every sense. The Stelvio is the second-highest paved road in the Alps, and the highest finish ever on any Grand Tour.

It’s worth noting that the Stelvio is the Cima Coppi, the highest point on the Giro, and mountain points are doubles over the summit of this climb. And so they should be. The Stelvio’s average gradient is 7.1% with a length of 21.5km, it’s 1533 metres from the bottom to the top, which is at 2758 metres above sea level. The last 10km of this climb are above 2,000 metres and the last 4km average 8%. This will put everyone in real trouble, and we could see some real gaps developing already.





In 2012 Thomas de Gendt wrote his name into Giro fokelore with his astonishing solo attack on the Stelvio, which would lead to him moving all the way up to 4th in the GC, which became 3rd when he made up more time in the next day’s TT. This huge climb, following on the footsteps of the Gavia will go a long way in deciding the stage winner and possibly the maglia rosa.

If those two beasts aren’t enough we finish on the Monte Martello. The Val Martello is a longer climb than the Stelvio at 22.3km. The good news for the weary riders is that the average gradient is not as steep as the previous two climbs, and the summit is not as high.





But there’s bad news too; by this point, oxygen deprivation at altitude and the sheer distance they’ve climbed will take its toll on the legs and the issue with this climb is that the gradient is not steady. There are several less steep sections, but there are also some horrible parts that go upto 20%. With about 5km to go there is a section  that averages 12.5%, and although it flattens out and there is even a small descent, the last 1.5km average over 10%.



This is an absolutely brutal day, and only the strongest will survive. Nairo Quintana will see it as a day to recapture a big chunk of the time Rigoberto Uran has on him. Yesterday Aru and Rolland looked strong, and Uran made some time over his nearest rivals Evans, Pozzovivo and Majka. It’s difficult to know how a rest day will affect some of these guys. There is no super-strong team that will drive the peloton either, so a strong break could make it, but with this amount of climbing, and the fact that you can throw a blanket over the top 10 in terms of time gaps, means I think this will be fought out by the GC guys.

Accordingly, I make Nairo Quintana a worthwhile bet at 2/1. This is where he comes to the fore and tries to take control of the race. I think he has several things in his favour. Other than Uran he has more experience of competing for GC in big mountain stages in Grand Tours compared to other potential stage winners like Aru and Majka. He is probably well on the mend from his illness of week two. If we assume a linear recovery, then he should be in better shape on Tuesday than he was on either Saturday or Sunday. He’s also got experience at altitude on big stages, which will be crucial for this. I’ve got two others I want to back as well but I will leave them for now as I’m not happy with prices and I might get better.