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Hi
I looked at the games yesterday and I know that if there is liquidity in the games from real people then I can make money. If the liquidity comes from betfair it will probably be manipulated in the same way online casino games are so they don't lose their money.
I tried last night on the roulette. I don't have a system it's more of a staking plan and after 2 hours from a 2 pound starting stake i was in profit of about 68. The losses and wins all added up quite fine for me and it was nothing extraordinary.
I do know it's impossible to win at roulette and I would never play in a casino but I didn't look at the wheel once, I was just playing the odds.
I tried again this morning at 6am and after one hour, same plan, I was down 26 pounds with no wins! Quite remarkable the difference there. It could have been bad luck.
Anyway, I contacted betfair and asked if it's real money or theirs I am playing against. The reply said I am playing against other users and it's the same as the sports exchange but they do provide 'a small amount of liquidity' to get the games going. I do understand that but to me now it seems clear that the game can be manipulated like a fruit machine. So at 6am...5am in the UK...hardly any players, the liquidity comes from betfair and the system doesn't let them lose it. At 8pm it's a different story and with thousands pumped in from other users it's a more level playing field. What do you think?
Before you bother...i don't need comments like 'they are criminals, it's fixed' because the games are already fixed. Like I said, i din't even look at the wheel once.
I looked at the games yesterday and I know that if there is liquidity in the games from real people then I can make money. If the liquidity comes from betfair it will probably be manipulated in the same way online casino games are so they don't lose their money.
I tried last night on the roulette. I don't have a system it's more of a staking plan and after 2 hours from a 2 pound starting stake i was in profit of about 68. The losses and wins all added up quite fine for me and it was nothing extraordinary.
I do know it's impossible to win at roulette and I would never play in a casino but I didn't look at the wheel once, I was just playing the odds.
I tried again this morning at 6am and after one hour, same plan, I was down 26 pounds with no wins! Quite remarkable the difference there. It could have been bad luck.
Anyway, I contacted betfair and asked if it's real money or theirs I am playing against. The reply said I am playing against other users and it's the same as the sports exchange but they do provide 'a small amount of liquidity' to get the games going. I do understand that but to me now it seems clear that the game can be manipulated like a fruit machine. So at 6am...5am in the UK...hardly any players, the liquidity comes from betfair and the system doesn't let them lose it. At 8pm it's a different story and with thousands pumped in from other users it's a more level playing field. What do you think?
Before you bother...i don't need comments like 'they are criminals, it's fixed' because the games are already fixed. Like I said, i din't even look at the wheel once.
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I understand your point about playing against 'live' players. I play Turbo Hold'em and often the odds I get are better than the automatic, bot placed prices, I assume these are from live players. So yes, there probably are times of day when you can get prices which are far closer, or sometimes in excess of the true probability of an outcome.
As an aside, people seem to be bothered about the fact that Betfair are providing some liquidity on the exchange games. This does not bother me in the slightest and shouldn't bother anyone really; There are bots playing on all of these games, and on many, if not most of the sports markets. It simply comes with the territory. Of course Betfair needs to provide liquidity if there are no other bots playing. On the turbo games there is simply not enough time for a 'real person' to manually calculate the probability and enter the odds for each outcome, every single time.
A couple of questions: What do you mean by "the game can be manipulated like a fruit machine" ? and "the system doesn't let them lose?"
Thanks,
As an aside, people seem to be bothered about the fact that Betfair are providing some liquidity on the exchange games. This does not bother me in the slightest and shouldn't bother anyone really; There are bots playing on all of these games, and on many, if not most of the sports markets. It simply comes with the territory. Of course Betfair needs to provide liquidity if there are no other bots playing. On the turbo games there is simply not enough time for a 'real person' to manually calculate the probability and enter the odds for each outcome, every single time.
A couple of questions: What do you mean by "the game can be manipulated like a fruit machine" ? and "the system doesn't let them lose?"
Thanks,
Yeah you are right but my point is if they put their own liquidity in obviously they don't want to lose it. Fruit machines payout can be altered (92% etc)so why can't they put a code in the program to ensure a certain payout. Obviously if there are thousands of people playing it won't make a difference because if someone loses someone else wins...but at 5am when hardly anyone is playing...if it's their own money they are using...
It just seems to be such a radical difference in results in the 2 time periods. I will know more when I try it tonight.
It just seems to be such a radical difference in results in the 2 time periods. I will know more when I try it tonight.
I am by no means an expert in probability or statistics, but i would say you would need a sample of a few hundred games, maybe even into the 1000's to be able to draw a valid conclusion.
Also I think there is pretty much always more than 1 live, human player on each of these games at any time of day, you can see by clicking on the rules tab and it shows how much has been matched so far. It would be interesting to plot the total matched on each exchange game for a 24 hour period. Some people's strategy may favour the quiet times, other people may prefer the busy times.
As for the bots, they are laying low, and backing high. Like the house edge in a casino. Sure some people will win, and the bots may lose money on a game here and there, the may even lose 49% of the time, but if they win 51% of the time then they are in profit.
Also I think there is pretty much always more than 1 live, human player on each of these games at any time of day, you can see by clicking on the rules tab and it shows how much has been matched so far. It would be interesting to plot the total matched on each exchange game for a 24 hour period. Some people's strategy may favour the quiet times, other people may prefer the busy times.
As for the bots, they are laying low, and backing high. Like the house edge in a casino. Sure some people will win, and the bots may lose money on a game here and there, the may even lose 49% of the time, but if they win 51% of the time then they are in profit.
It just seems to be such a radical difference in results in the 2 time periods. I will know more when I try it tonight.
@czechrover: I had the same observation in Texas Hold'em Turbo. Most money made in times when there is a lot of money in the market and losses when not. However, a longer time ago I played Omaha with obviously no other players in the market (amount matched = 0,00). According to the "fruit machine theory" I should have lost all of my bets, but I didn't. Had some wins, some losses, overall +/- 0,00. This could be an indicator that the games indeed are truly random.
As an aside, people seem to be bothered about the fact that Betfair are providing some liquidity on the exchange games. This does not bother me in the slightest and shouldn't bother anyone really
100% agree! I would be even happy if the games were somehow fixed. Because this should make it easier to find a profitable strategy.
@czechrover: I had the same observation in Texas Hold'em Turbo. Most money made in times when there is a lot of money in the market and losses when not. However, a longer time ago I played Omaha with obviously no other players in the market (amount matched = 0,00). According to the "fruit machine theory" I should have lost all of my bets, but I didn't. Had some wins, some losses, overall +/- 0,00. This could be an indicator that the games indeed are truly random.
As an aside, people seem to be bothered about the fact that Betfair are providing some liquidity on the exchange games. This does not bother me in the slightest and shouldn't bother anyone really
100% agree! I would be even happy if the games were somehow fixed. Because this should make it easier to find a profitable strategy.
@czechrover I've thought about your point about the "fruit machine" and the payout percentage being altered. I don't think it is. The games are random, and should stand up to scrutiny. From what I've seen, the underround and overround is normally between 0.5% and 1% from the true probability so that is the 'house edge' and that is how the bots consistently make their money; by getting value.
Over the weekend I noticed some games were getting over £10,000 matched, with a few thousand matched pre-flop sometimes. I guess it depends on when the 'real people' are playing.
Over the weekend I noticed some games were getting over £10,000 matched, with a few thousand matched pre-flop sometimes. I guess it depends on when the 'real people' are playing.
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