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Flutter_kid
29 Feb 12 21:08
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Mar 08
| Topic/replies: 71 | Blogger: Flutter_kid's blog
So I've been running a method that is slowly and steadily winning.

After a few months testing and backtesting; I set this to run live coming up to 32 months ago and has been consistently making profit ever since.

Had one bad day where my internet went down which messed up the calculations somewhat (I have since found a way around this problem so that if there are any interruptions the system stops) but other than that my method has not had a bad week yet - but there is a problem.

The money made is not as big as it could be. I don't want to have my life savings tied up in a betfair account, and there are issues with liquidity in some of these games. At the moment I withdraw enough to pay for my costs to commute to my job each month (not small) and I get a decent holiday a year, but that's about it.

Any suggestions on staking plans or similar that might help get something on the slow burner up to making money that's a bit more interesting would be great.

Feel free to send links to me directly to any online resources you'd recommend if they don't appear here.

Looking forward to hearing some thoughts from you all.

And if you're going to say any of the following:
-- the games are fixed,
-- betfair is a con,
-- I'm a scammer trying to sell a system,
-- What I claim is not possible

Please just save your time. Go outside and play - don't waste your time or mine!
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Report nzbot February 29, 2012 11:08 PM GMT
Flutter_kid, it's very nice to hear that you are profitable, even if the profits are small.
How did you backtest? X-Feeder/TimeMachine? Self-written tool?


P.S.: Interesting profile photo. Wink
Report Flutter_kid March 1, 2012 9:54 PM GMT
Hi there NZ,

Thanks for your reply.

I backtested using a couple of methods. Xfeeder I "live tested" for a while as I seem to remember there wasn't much historic data available (I might be wrong there); and I also tried a couple of other data readers to analyse results - however if I'm completely honest I did take a bit of a risk and say "sod it", accepted the risk of the system coming undone, and just went for it

The profile picture seemed appropriate - that's a very accurate graph of my football/cricket bets account. Fortunately my xgames graph looks better - although I'd relish the chance to get it going a little steeper.

Any suggestions for staking plans would be great - I've never really looked into them in the past; obviously we all know the martingale but anything past that hasn't really crossed my desk!

Cheers all!
Report Flutter_kid March 2, 2012 7:02 AM GMT
Another thing that I've never worked out - the connection going is one thing, and a power cut puts a stop to my bots pretty sharpish, however I have never worked out how to avoid "windows will automatically restart in 15 mins"

Has happened a few times, especially annoying when you are away for a few days and come back to zero profits and an empty desktop!!!!
Report Grunweld March 4, 2012 9:07 AM GMT
I have never worked out how to avoid "windows will automatically restart in 15 mins"

Have a look at "Windows Update" in the Control Panel, you can change the settings to avoid automatic installation and restart.
Report Flutter_kid March 4, 2012 10:13 PM GMT
Not to turn this into a Windows support forum - however I have found an article on the Microsoft site called "Disable system auto restart after installing Windows updates" - I'm hoping this will solve the issue!
Report Flutter_kid March 5, 2012 8:57 PM GMT
Apologies Grunny - on a re-read I realised that you were fairly obviously giving me instructions rather than agreeing that you hadn't worked it out.

NZ - do you also run backtesting through xfeeder or have you had successes elsewhere?
Report nzbot March 5, 2012 11:34 PM GMT
Flutter_kid: I didn't use X-Feeder. I did some backtesting against Betfair's statistics files using a self-programmed tool in MS Access (VBA). However, the disadvantage of my backtesting method is that all of it was based only on cards without taking prices into account. Currently, I'm working on a tool with ability to calculate true prices for Texas Hold'em. When it's ready, I plan to download all statistics files into my local database, calculate true prices for all rounds and then I hope to come up with a better strategy.
Report ddgsk1 March 8, 2012 10:09 PM GMT
To Flutter_kid,
I sent you private message
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