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highandlow
09 Jun 10 02:27
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Date Joined: 08 Jun 10
| Topic/replies: 1 | Blogger: highandlow's blog
Hi, just wanna asked some maths expert here.
how do you calculate the probability of "2 card run" happen on the "1st 2 cards" that come out. The "Start Card" and "Card 1".
Is it 1/13*1/12=0.0064?
How do you calculate how often it will have "2 card run" on the 1st 2 cards in the long run, say in 100 games or in 1000 games. Thank you.
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Report One footed pony • June 11, 2010 10:08 PM BST
Sorry mate, but why ?
Report Jazza • June 12, 2010 12:28 AM BST
66 \ 23 x221
Report One footed pony • June 14, 2010 6:28 PM BST
Number of cards
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12) (13)
 
  2H  3H  4H  5H  6H  7H  8H  9H  10H  JKH  QNH  KGH  AH
                    Computer predition
  H   H   H   H   H   H   L   L   L    L    L    L    L

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (6) (5)  (4)   (3) (2)  (1)

The odds vary depending on the first card drawn.

If say 9H is the 1st card the computer will predict lower.

Which leaves us with 5/7 (1.71)

So add up all of those fractions,

3H 1/11, 4H 2/10, 5H 3/9, 6H 4/8, 7H 5/7, 8H 6/6,
9H 5/7, 10H 4/8, JKH 3/9, QNH 2/10, KGH 1/11

Which should give us 1.375 total odds.
Report One footed pony • June 14, 2010 6:42 PM BST
Sorry, forgot to add 2H   aceH

Corrected total odds : 1.32
Report One footed pony • June 18, 2010 6:35 PM BST
Odds of 1.30 before betting !

Or 1.09, 1.2, 1.33, 1.5, 1.71, 2.00, depending on the 1ST card drawn.

Hope you get what I mean.
Report x-player • November 9, 2010 7:08 PM GMT
Hi One footed pony,

Any ideas as to the odds of a 5cc in BJ and more importanly how to do the calcs as I suspect we are dealing with permutations rather than combinations. Or is this a question a should be posing to Grunweld ?

Thanks for your time
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR • November 11, 2010 8:52 PM GMT
x player
Just sit and watch the games.
If and when any scenario comes up that you want to price, just look at the screen.
The bid and lay odds on offer will be perfectly weighted on either side of the correct, perfect odds. So just take the mid-point.
Slow but sure.
Report Grunweld • November 12, 2010 11:43 AM GMT
Yes I'm still here, but no one is any further advanced in their grail quest I see.
As FAFH indicates it is a complete waste of time to calculate the odds for any betting scenario on x-games.  So better to concentrate on other things.
Report One footed pony • November 12, 2010 4:53 PM GMT
50/1
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR • November 12, 2010 10:28 PM GMT
Grunweld
Never seem to see you on the GBF.
Don't you sports bet at all ?
Report One footed pony • November 13, 2010 12:08 AM GMT
As you can imagine, with the expected pts total being 33 on average, 21 is a shot in the dark, so don't expect it to come up very often.
Report Grunweld • November 14, 2010 10:31 AM GMT
I do sports bet, I just don't talk about it on the forums very much.
Report One footed pony • November 14, 2010 6:30 PM GMT
Having said that, any cards below 4 would be excellent. But don't forget that the average to expect from the draw, would be between 6 and 7, so that should help you to decide whether to bet or not.
Report FINE AS FROG HAIR • November 14, 2010 9:10 PM GMT
A pity Grunweld.
Given your obvious good IQ from how you post on here, your input sometimes on the GBF might be interesting to read.
Report betfair poker bug • November 17, 2010 5:05 PM GMT
test
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