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Obviously this is turbo poker only but has produced more or less daily profit with all the files in the database.
In R4 check to see if the community cards are one card short of a flush, straight or FH. Then check to ensure that all hands are still in play. If so, do various other checks to ensure that no selection is already leading with one of these hands. If all these criteria are satisfied, then back the probable loser for £15 stake divided by price and back the favourite for the same stake.
The theory behind this is that in the above circumstance it is possible that the river card will complete the flush, straight or FH, in which case all four hands might dead-heat and the probable loser could have been backed at up to 79.0. If this doesn't happen then the favourite nearly always wins.
Of course, I'm not giving away how to implement the triggers. lol
In R4 check to see if the community cards are one card short of a flush, straight or FH. Then check to ensure that all hands are still in play. If so, do various other checks to ensure that no selection is already leading with one of these hands. If all these criteria are satisfied, then back the probable loser for £15 stake divided by price and back the favourite for the same stake.
The theory behind this is that in the above circumstance it is possible that the river card will complete the flush, straight or FH, in which case all four hands might dead-heat and the probable loser could have been backed at up to 79.0. If this doesn't happen then the favourite nearly always wins.
Of course, I'm not giving away how to implement the triggers. lol
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Sounds good, but a nightmare to trigger in xfeeder. Have you managed it?
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Is £15 divided by anything more than 7.5 less than minimum stake allowed?
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I have coded it. It took a long time and you won't be able to play this manually unless you're lucky to spot the scenario when watching the games.
Regarding minimum stakes, just tick the box in options to increase stake to minimum. It doesn't necessarily work better with larger stakes as the liability is then too high if the hands don't dead-heat and the favourite also cops it. |
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I've notice that if a strat places Bet2 if you have already place Bet1 then if you speed up Time Machine to the max it doesn't place Bet2. You have to slow it down and then it works.
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I had checked that out and both bets were placed at full speed (most of the time anyway). The main problem I had was one of the bets being missed in live mode, but I've changed the way I place the fav. bet and am waiting to see what transpires.
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Cheers, Grun. Nice that the forum is slowly moving back in the right direction. Good work. I'll have a bash at coding it, the theory seems very sound behind it.
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By all means try to code it, you might come up with a better variation. The triggers work, but I am continually trying to fine tune them to avoid missing likely dead-heats and avoid hitting losing favourites.
It is not a get rich quick system since not many bets are placed, but as a little system beavering away in the background, it's not too bad. Other ideas on the long odds selections are to try and hit the 515 charlie or 515 DWTA when charlie has already hit. I first tried this by laying the 5CC in R2 at min. stakes and lowish odds, then placing the same size back bet in R3 when the price shoots up, giving a free bet. When I first tried this in test mode, I had a string of zeros, a sickening number of lay losses and then several hits of the 5CC (or DWTA) and my test account shot up from £200 to about £2,600. I thought I had cracked it, but. of course, it never repeated at this level for ages and the lay losses started to erode the balance back to under £1000, before it hit again. There are a number of BJ ideas I'm desperate to try on Time Machine though. |
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Grunweld
Just as a matter of curiosity, waht is your opinion on where the "value " is coming from in this strategy, which you have backtested favourably ? Is the favourite priced too high or is the probable loser priced too high ? Is the dead heat rule favourable to you.? Also can you tell us how many times the bets have been made in your backtesting.? I don't play this game. Maybe I should start to ? |
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I can't identify any particular source of value. It only makes around 6 - 24 bets in 24 hours. I first tried it just backing the probable loser and ended up with a string of losing bets waiting for the big win that only hits occasionally. But since I added backing the fav. only if the probable loser was already backed, it seems to lose at a much slower rate while waiting for the big wins.
I'm well aware that with the low strike rate my test sample remains very small. |
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Poker Turbo: 27039284
Example of nice hit Backed hand 4 £2 @ 53.00 Won 24.50 Backed hand 2 £10.87 @ 1.38 Lost -7.12 Net profit after comm. = £16.95 |
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Does X-feeder break even if it can't get a Green Up ? Is it safe to use X-feeder to close my position or should one just let it place the first bet and Green up ? If it can do the job . . .
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Mr G - congratulations. Sounds like I might have to brush away the cobwebs and start coding triggers again. Presumably the Time Machine is the test facility in the new X-Feeder release?
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Nice to hear you're back on stream jigz.
I don't think this is really the answer to the ultimate question though, unless you can wait epochs and have biblical patience. I have been fine tuning this for a while - keeps my old brain more active. I think other approaches to hitting high odds selections might also work, if you could slow the loss rate while waiting for the hits. Time Machine is indeed the new backtesting facility for x-feeder. |
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Come on Grunweld.
If something works slowly, then you simply have to scale it up to make it satisfactorily profitable. Speed is irrelevant essentially, unless of course you have to scale it to such a degree that you cannot get the bet sizes on. The bottom line is that it must work long term. No ifs, no buts. Value has to be being created somewhere in the equation. That's a mathematical fact. You might not know exactly why, that is you might just accidentally stumble on something that is beyond your mathematical skills to analyse or interpret. But there has to be something there that you can always rely on to happen in a favourable probiblity sense. Unless you develop that confidence in a strategy and can bet big numbers consequently without fear, then it will always ultimately be a waste of time financially. But, as you rightly say, it sure beats watching TV endlessly and never using your brain at all. Keep pluggin Grunweld. Your honest endeavours are good to read about. |
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Oh also welcome back from me Jigz.
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Another typical hit:
Texas Hold'em / Game ID: 27061948 Back Hand 4 £2.00 @ 39.50 Won (Dead Heat) £17.75 On this occasion the fav. wasn't backed as it's price was below my lower limit of 1.15. |
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Alongside these hits when all the hands dead-heat, very occasionally the probable loser wins on its own, which is a very significant boost to profits.
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Hi YLB. Almost got the old crew back. Now where's our old pal from Berlin?
But surely you can see the flaw in this statement - "If something works slowly, then you simply have to scale it up to make it satisfactorily profitable" With these long odds bets the problem has always been the amount of money available at those prices (and its tendency to disappear when you try to grab a piece of it). |
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Igz
Haven't seen a posting from UJ for a very long time. In response to your other point, I did say in fact unless you can't get the bet sizes on. I'm not really up to speed on the liquidity of the games when playing with the long odds selections. Is it really bad?. Does not BF act in its usual unrestricted liquidity provider role ? If that is the case, then there is not a lot of point in even trying to develop strategies that require long odd bet placements, is there then ? |
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Hi YLB - yes you did caveat what you said - apologies. It's been a while since I tried, but I sometimes found I was waiting ages for odds over 400, then there would be very little on show (say £10 or less available to match) and to cap it all even with the Amoeba bot it was gone before I could pick it up. Giving it another go with mini-stakes - thanks Mr G for the help with trigger writing.
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There is no value in your strategy. Sorry, but you just waiste your time...
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Want to soften that with a IYO ?
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FFS this is no better than lay my hand 3 strategy :D
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No it's probably better, since it loses more slowly. LOL
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:)
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Fancy a chat?
General Strat |
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Grunweld, you have a nice idea.
Long term you know you'll never win. I admire your honesty. |
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Botbeep................P1ss off!
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Hi Grunweld.
I am designing a new system, and kinda need to ask you a trigger question. Can you write to the following e-mail? Thanks in advance! Highly appreciated! E-mail: rhj [at] me [dot] com |