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I was doing some analysis on black jack all cards unique, found that the max number of times it won consectively on any 24 hr period over 18 days was 4 in 17 days and 5 in 1 day. Could make for a risky matindale lol.
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Yes, you should...
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Yes. Go for it....can't lose......for at least 2 hours.
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...at least 24 hours or 400games....800minus or 2500plus....did you started??
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Yes but because the odds are 6.00 it won't work. Your winnings does not cover your losses.
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Game 1 stake 2 loss -10 total loss -10
Game 2 stake 4 loss -20 total loss -30 Game 3 stake 8 loss -40 total loss -70 Game 4 stake 16 loss -80 total loss -150 Game 5 stake 32 loss -160 total loss -310 Game 6 you win 64 total HURRAH! |
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I still can't work out the odds on that bet, anyway there are much better fish to fry.
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If you can't make money from x-games, you are not trying, especially using the new trend line analysis in x-feeder.
This is one of my recent graphs: http://www.flickr.com/photos/grunshare/4378813244/ |
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Oh yeah, you could wait for 3 consec losses
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sorry wins
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Jesus, Grun, thats an impressive graph. Real money? Is your strategy trend dependant (obviously), I mean do you switch between live and test depending on trend???
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That one was live this morning, it's just returned to the zero line a few mins. ago.
I decide on a positive trend value to switch off test mode eg.= 0.35 and have another trigger to switch on test mode when the trend is negative eg. = -0.1. Seems to work so far. I am still optimising which betting strategies work best with this approach. |
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When you say, 'returned to the zero line', does that mean you were live on the upward trend and then test on the downward trend? Would it be best to apply this approach to a trig that fluctuated between i.e £100 up to £100 down but never really anymore or less or would it be better applied to a trig that wins the majority of time except for occasional very big losses?
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I managed to trade live on most of the positive trends and return to test on most of the negative trends. I have followed this approach since first trying x-games, with varying degrees of success/failure. But now that x-feeder have added a channel_trend variable there is more confidence to leave it running and allow the triggers to minimise losses.
As I said I don't really know the best pattern of graph to apply this to yet, but I will definitely be looking at old strats. in a new light. |
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I havnt managed to strike a happy medium between minimising losses (downward trend) and being over cautious and losing too many wins in the process. Having so many variables to try and manipulate makes testing a long, long process. Testing for a day or two ( an avge of 2000 games ) is fine but if xfeeder ever update again to include backtesting then maybe things can be a little more conclusive, lol.
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Keep on plugging Grunweld.
I hope at the very least your posts encourage that perpetual griper Jazza to go back to his drawing board wth a fresh set of ideas. As for me, I've always thought that there might be someway to beat the odds, though I remain to be convinced that analysis of past trends is the answer, long term at least. If your graphs still show an overall upward trend when the time axis is substantially longer, say at least 100,000 games or so, then I might be ready to concede you have discovered something material. But the important point is that you clearly haven't given up, and remain positive and open minded, unlike many others on here, particularly the " it's fixed " brigade. |
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nice graph Grunweld, well done, but thats' level stalking I guess ??
witch peak is "back 4 times on trot, all money to next bet, on all cards unique"?? I suppose he wants to try catch 4 or 5 on trot, alias 2$x5.92x5.92x5.92x5.92... any good?? |
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Nice to hear from you Botty.
For anyone that's interested I've uploaded a new graph that shows a complete cycle. Looking at the smoothed trend line, I can't see why it will not be possible to make a profit here with any strat that produces a similar profile. www.flickr.com/photos/grunshare/4379740631 |
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nice work Grunweld, i still cannot get my head around channel_trend on xfeeder triggers or rather how to apply it corretly, but I am working hard. I am openminded about the holy grail, i do believe it is out there in one form or another even if its just to win a very consistant £30 per day. Best regards Jack.
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I agree Jazza, But I still made about £120 from it by following the channel_trend. I'm not claiming it;s the answer to the ultimate question, but just trying to stimulate some debate around the new feature in x-feeder.
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Fair enough. Any way of using it in test mode to simulate test mode on and off......sounds like a stupid question I know but...
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Good question, Jazza. Be a lot happier testing if it didnt involve switching test mode on and off, lol.
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It is difficult because the channel has to produce a result to establish the trend. A simple method that will give a close approximation is to increase the stake when the trend is favourable and reduce it to minimum when the trend is against you.
So you you start the channel betting £2 and then increase to £20 or even more, after all there is no limit on the availabilty of test funds. |
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Thanks, Grun. Not dead accurate but its a start. I see xfeeder have updated to include 'time machine' today. I reckon it'll be pretty quiet on the forum 2nite whilst various poker trigs are backtested.
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Just tried Time Machine, pretty awesome, pity there are only data files for poker. It looks as though they will be charging for the data when it's out of beta.
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Don't Play exchange games again. Fixed odds. Betfair chases transaction Codes in order even if you win once you loose 10 times your money. First ever since such a Fixed Quaranteed transaction games. In real life odds the odds are more realistic than in betfair happens FU****G miracles.. Someone has to check their system because their a big scam beneath it.
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Get lost fruitcake.
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YOULITTLEBOTTY .... Join betfair m8 .. thats my opinion you like it or not fruit**
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I never understand this **ing thing, its simple if one player loses another wins. Betfair wins wotever happens so why would it be fixed one way. I think its just people who have lost heavily and need something to blame rather than their own lack of judgement.
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