Why isn't....

More ways to hit 21 than an ace, 10,6,5 etc.

Yes Grun but each one of them gives you a chance to trade or 7, 8, 9, 10, J, Q, K in our favour with straight wins?

The point is that the odds offered at that point in time by the mkt.making bots represent the weighted average of any and all future scenarios happening.
Sure many different scenarios will play out over time, but irregardless of whether you lose, win, or trade out , you will always be doing so at below value odds, no matter what.
You have to look at these things in the very long term, and the bad odds will eventually cause you to go into a cumulative loss if you always do the same thing each time this scenario arises..

The odds just have to be correct - get your pencil and paper out.

What are are the prices for 2,3,4,5 or 6 on next card?

Thanks for your input FAFH :-)

What I am trying to say is that only 1 card in 12 at that moment in time can do us any harm...That obviously being the Ace.

King Queen Jack 10 9 8 and 7 give us a direct winner.

Any other card 2 through to 6 gives us a trading opportunity where we can just back it to cover the liability and give us a small pick up on the 'don't come' side.

Grun

Worst is the 2 if it comes and the price goes to 8.5 to back which would give us a small profit as long as it doesn't hit (although no liability.)

If the 6 comes then the price goes to 12.9 which again gives us a small profit but no liability, after the trade.

Looked at that way there would appear to be something in it.

Obviously the price must be correct if you let the lay bet run to the end of the game, but with the opportunity to clear the liability or even profit in R4, then on the face of it, it could have legs. So you are only holding the full risk for 1 round and only 1/13 events will deprive you of the full liability.

Yes Grun...although the only time we would let the liability run until the end of the game is if the ace hits 1st card...which would be a loser for us anyhow!

I don't think you're understanding my point basically.
All these trade out scenarios would be done at poor value odds also, and the consequent gains ( after commission) from them and from straight wins would not offset the losing scenarios.
I repeat looking over the long term is the most important factor here.
In the short term you could try to chase in some form or manner, but we all know how that always ends up eventually.
You just can't fight the bad value odds in the manner you are proposing.
I know if lokks as if you should be able towin by clever trading etc., but it really is not possible IN THE LONG TERM.

FAFH...you have changed your tune! :-)

I have seen you on other peoples threads saying that just because somebody can't do it doesn't mean it can't be done...

and then you come in with a sweeping statement like that! Lol...

Grunweld
You should be able to bot this proposed trade out strategy.
If you do you will see that eventually you will decline into negative territory.
The mkt. making bots have covered all these scenarios in their odds.
Frustrating I know, but that's just the way it is.
The mkt.making bots are not going to give yo free money in any conscious form or manner.

Our posts crossed Benni.
I don't believe I have changed my tune at all.
What you are proposing is simply trading in and out on poor value odds, doing the same sort of trades in all scenarios where the opportunities present.
Nobody I can assure you can do that long term.
I have said that I think that there a long term trading cycles that might be measurable and usable in some form or manner.
A big difference.
In my perceived scheme of things, there might be a strategy that bets on a very small percentage of all the games played and wins simply by selecting bets that win at an incidence that is more than 3 or 4 standard deviations from the norm.
That type of variance will then overcome the poor value odds and commission.

In 13 games you will have 7 full stake wins = less than 7 points after undervalue odds & commission.

In 13 games you will have a full stake loss one time = more than 8 points with overvalue odds.

Can you make enough from the trade outs to make more than 1 point in 13 games after commission and poor value odds?

I doubt it somehow.

True but it is close isn't it...just trying to give a small insight of what I do on here (Not that bet on its own ;-) )

Sorry FAFH...only jokes anyhow :-)

So you believe it may be possible but in another direction...3 or 4 times deviation is huge though is it not???