davio

The b’stard BTTS/+2.5 acca was, as they say in French, Tres Merde. The treble however was fantastique.

Moving onto this weekend and we have 2 BTTS to score bets, one in England and one in Europe.

England

6/10 - 9/10 -   08/12/12 - 3pm    Huddersfield v Bolton +7
6/9 - 9/10 -     08/12/12 - 3pm    Bristol Rovers vs Dagenham +8
9/10 - 7/10 -     08/12/12 - 3pm    Woking vs Stockport +7
6/7 - 6/7 -     09/12/12 - 3pm    Everton vs Tottenham +7

On the left we can see how many games both teams have scored in, against their total number of home/away matches (e.g. Woking’s home matches have seen BTS in nine out of 10 matches, Stockport’s away matches seven out of 10).

Also on the right we can see their form figures over the last 4 home and away games (see previous blogs for this).

4 fold pays just over 11/2 with StanJames

Europe

8/8 - 8/8 -     08/12/12 - 5.30pm    Frankfurt vs Werder Bremen +8
8/9 - 8/9 -     09/12/12 - 1.30pm    Beerschot AC vs Club Brugge +8
5/8 - 8/8 -     09/12/12 - 6pm    Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo +6
6/8 - 7/8 -     09/12/12 - 4.30pm    Hannover 96 vs Leverkusen +6

And this little 4 timer pays a smidge under 6/1, again with StanJames

No acca this week but you can see my best 3 bets this weekend in the premier league on http://www.thatsagoal.com/

One wolves goal away from a nice midweek BTTS acca, the ****. Anyhow moving on….

Only the two selections for both +2.5 and BTTS, so im marrying them up in one single acca

01/12/2012 - 3pm - Fulham v Spurs +7 BTTS
01/12/2012 - 3pm - Torquay Utd vs Dagenham & R +7 BTTS
02/12/12 - 1.30pm - FC Groningen vs Heracles Almelo +6.75 +2.5
02/12/12 - 2pm - Antalyaspor vs Mersin +6 +2.5


*Mmmm, 1 from 4 - must do better

Fulham, whilst only having 50% of their home matches end with BTS, have been scoring and shipping goals for fun. Factor in the fact that Spurs have a 100% record and it looks a solid pick.

Torquay have seen seven of their nine home matches end up with BTS and Dagenham go one better with eight from nine away matches.

Both Dutch teams have seen +2.5 in five out of seven fixtures.

Antalyaspor have seen every home match end over 2.5 and Mersins away matches have seen this happen in five out six occasions

The 4Fold pays a shade over 6s with Bet365

Also a nice little acca has cropped up on the long list

Cardiff
Watford
Leyton Orient

*Huzzah!*

All three look like bakers to my eyes and the tidy trio pays 4.35 with BetVictor

There’s a midweek round of fixtures in the championship which has thrown up 4 picks for BTTS. And they are…

Blackpool vs Birmingham City +7
Derby County vs Cardiff City +7
Ipswich Town vs Nottm Forest +7
Wolverhampton vs Millwall +6

*one wolves goal away from a full house *

Again Blackpool make the list and they have obliged twice in the past two weeks. The weekends score line made in seven from nine at home and visitors Birmingham are six in nine.

Derby County and Cardiff City are both seven from nine.

Ipswich, despite their poor form have a home record of seven in eight, whilst their visitors boast an even better record of eight in nine matches.

Finally the fans of Wovles have seen BTS in eight of the nine matches played at Molineaux , whilst Millwall’s travelling band of oddballs have seen seven out of their nine away matches end up with BTS.

5/1 + widely available

One from winning the winning the +2.5 last week, whilst the BTTS acca came in at a shade over 7/1. Nice.

Moving onto this week the three +2.5 picks are…

24/11/2012 6:45pm    VVV vs Heerenveen +6.75 1-1
25/11/2012 4.30pm    Hoffenheim vs Leverkusen +7.5 1-2
25/11/2012 8pm    Levante vs Barcelona + 6.75 - 0-4

*Yet again 1 goal away from the acca coming in *

In every VVV so far this season there has been over 2.5 goals. Heerenveen’s away record isn’t so great (3/6) but the last three have seen over 2.5.

Hoffenheim have seen five out of 6 home matches go the way of +2.5 and Leverkusen are conceding and scoring goals AOTS and are currently six from six for +2.5 in away matches.

Levante are a tough nut to crack at home but in four of their six home matches have seen over 2.5 goals. Barcelona are six from six away from home and the average goals per match so far this season stands at 5.5 goals. That’s right, 5.5 goals.

The treble pays 2.37 with Stanjames

The BTTS picks are as follows…

24/11/2012 3pm    Blackpool vs Watford +6
24/11/2012 3pm    Wolverhampton vs Nottm Forest +7
25/11/2012 1.30pm    Swansea City vs Liverpool +7
25/11/2012 3pm    Southampton vs Newcastle Utd +8
25/11/2012 4pm    Toulouse vs Lyon +8
25/11/2012 8.15pm    Sporting Braga vs FC Porto +7

*mixed bag for the BTTS, Started off well but downhill from there*

Blackpool did the business for us last week and I can’t see why they wouldn’t again. Six in eight matches have seen BTS, whilst in Watford’s away matches that stands at seven in eight.

Wolves are seven from eight, ditto forest.

Liberty Stadium has seen BTS score four times in six, whilst Liverpool fans have seen BTS in five out of their six away games.

Southampton score and concede for fun at home, indeed the only time they have failed to score was their first match against Wigan. Newcastle, although in poor form in the league are four from five away from home. The only 0, being away to Chelsea.

Toulouse have a full house, six from six, where as Lyon are four from five.

Finally we have Braga and like Toulouse they have a full house at home (four from four) and visitors Porto have seen three out of their four away matches end up with both teams scoring.

A straight acca pays a whopping 24/1 with StanJames

Two side bets and a small double for the weekend as well.

Looking at Lyons’s away form they have drawn four out of their five away matches 1-1. At 11/2 (general) it looks a nice bet to have on your side. was 1-0 and a 87th minute goal was scored....to make it 2-0

Secondly Valencia have been beaten away from home to nil in four out of 6 matches. Factor in that they are playing Champions League surprise package Malaga and the win to nil price of 13/5 (PaddyPower/Coral) raises an eyebrow. Malaga won to nil

Double the duo and that’s a touch under 22/1 with Ladbrokes.

The three +2.5 picks are…

16/11/2012 - 6pm    Galatasaray vs Karabukspor +6.5 - final result 1-3
17/11/2012 - 12:45pm    Arsenal vs Tottenham +7.5 - final result 4-2
17/11/2012 - 7.45pm    FC Groningen vs AZ Alkmaar +8.5 - final result 1-1 So near and yet so far....
   
   
Gala are four from five in +2.5’s at home whilst Karabukspor away are 5 from 5, in recent years at the Emirates we’ve seen a 5-2, 2-3, 3-0, 4-4 and a 2-1, whilst Groningen are five from six and AZ have a full house with six from six.

Pays a shade over 3/1 with StanJames


The BTTS picks are…

17/11/2012 - 12:45pm    Arsenal vs Tottenham +7 - final result 4-2
17/11/2012 - 3pm    Bristol City vs Blackpool +5 - final result 1-1
17/11/2012 - 7pm    Valenciennes vs Montpellier +6 - final result 1-1
17/11/2012 - 7.45pm    Napoli vs Milan +7 final result 2-2

a nice 7/1 in the bag

As stated above there should be goals galore at the Emirates. Although Bristol and Blackpool don’t meet the +6, I have taken into account that Bristol have scored and conceded in seven of their home matches. Blackpool don’t need a reason to attack and I expect a high scoring encounter.

Valenciennes have been scoring and conceding for fun and both teams have scored in 10 of 12 matches Montpellier have played so far this season.  Four in six of Napoli’s home matches have been seen both teams score, whilst in the five matches Milan have played away from home both teams have scored each time.

Pays a shade over 7/1 with StanJames

Over 2.5 Goals Acca

The rules i work with for this are:

Take that last 4 Home/Away Matches for both teams

If 3 goals scored in the match +0.5

If both teams scored in the match +0.75

So if it was 3-1 in the last match, that would give that match a score of +1.25

Bets must be at least + 6 to qualify

Follow?

With that in mind here are this weeks 4 selections


11/11/12 - 1pm    OB v SonderjyskE +9.25 - Nice 5-0 Victory

11/11/12 - 1.30pm    Zwolle v Ajax +6.5 - 2-4.

11/11/12 - 4pm    Olhanense v Beira-Mar +9.25 - Some how transpired to end up 1-0

12/11/12 - 8pm    Real Madrid B v Recreativo Huelva +8.5 - Some how transpired to end up 0-1
   
6.67 @ Bet365


Both teams to score

Like the +2.5 we take the last 4 matches both teams have played and if both teams have scored in said match they get +1, for a bet to count they need at least +7 to qualify

This weeks selections are

09/11/12 - 7pm    SpartavHelmond Sport +7 - x

10/11/12 - 12pm    PaderbornvKaiserslauten +7 - 

10/11/12 - 3pm    ReadingvNorwich +7 - x

10/11/12 - 3pm    SouthamptonvSwansea +4* - 

10/11/12 - 3pm    WiganvWest Brom +7 - 

10/11/12 - 3pm    BlackpoolvBolton +7 - 

11/11/12 - 1pm    OB v SonderjyskE +7 - x


Although the Southampton and Swansea match doesn't meet the criteria, Southampton score and concede at home for fun.

All 7 pays 27.5 @ StanJames

You can remove Southampton and for those who don't want there 7 fold to fall at the first hurdle you can remove Sparta form the list. The 5 fold pays just under 11/1 @ Stanjames


-----------------------------------------

Mixed bag.

Thought the overs was a shoe in but no boot strikers were on hand to put the ball in the net in Portugal and Spain


BTTS Acca was let down by the dozy dutch divs. 4 from 7 gives me something to work with. 2 of the x's were foreign teams from lover divisions. May swerve said teams in the future. Onto the weekend...

There a few things one needs to take into consideration when betting anti post The Europa League. Firstly can the team be bothered to actually win it? Motivation is a key factor in this competition as you will see many teams rest players for the following weekends league matches. If the manager can’t be hooped putting his best team out then you are simply not going to go far in this competition (see Spurs last year). Secondly you have to remember that the parachuted third places teams from the Champions League groups enter the competition in the knockout stages, so you could have a selection doing well, only to end up facing a major team in round 32 (see Porto vs. city and Ajax vs. United last year). Also, can they cope playing Thursdays and Sundays on a regular basis? Many teams have struggled to cope with this schedule and this can bee seen with Manchester United last season as Fergie said that they had struggled to cope with this format.

With that in mind let’s have a look and see what we can find. Last years victors Atlético Madrid head the betting along with Liverpool, Inter and Tottenham, all at or around 14/1. I wouldn’t want to get involved in backing Spurs or Liverpool as their main priority will be the league and trying to get the coveted fourth Champions League spot. As a previous winner with Porto, AVB knows what it takes to manage a side both domestically and in Europe, so they could go far if they played at full strength, but even if they did I can’t see them winning it.

I wrote off the chances of Atlético Madrid last year but with the introduction of Diego Simeone as manager they have become a more consistent outfit and they also have a certain Mr Falcao who likes nothing better than scoring goals with his boots. The odds of 14/1 is fair but should a team come to the Vicente Calderón with a wheelbarrow full of cash for Falcao, then his departure will surely derail any chance they have of retaining their title. Furthermore you get the sense that, given Atlético’s turbulent history, they are only one week away from imploding. Inter are a hard one to call because they have a squad to do well at home and abroad but, like Spurs and Liverpool, I think their main focus will be on getting a Champions League spot in Serie A so I shall pass on them.

So that’s four teams who not to back so who shall we back? Last year I picked out Sporting Lisbon as e/w shout and the unlucky semi finalists are again a selection this year at the tasty odds of 66/1 with BetVictor. They have brought in some quality this season with signing of Croatian international Danijel Pranjić, Dutch defender Khalid Boulahrouz, Swizz midfielder Gelson Fernandes and a trio of talented youngsters Rojo, Viola and Labyad.  Most importantly they have managed to keep hold of boot shooting van Wolfswinkel who has been linked with a host of top European sides and Liverpool. At 66/1 they have to backed e/w as a final spot lands us a nice 33/1 place.

The second team on the list is the easily to pronounce Anzhi Makhachkala. They have only previously played in European competition once and that was a UEFA cup round one knockout to Rangers in 2001. Eleven years on and they will be looking to make a statement of intent. In their ranks are a few house hold names, Zhirkov, Chris Samba and by the time you have read this sentence he has probably made $100,000 Samuel Eto’o. Managed by Guus Hiddink, they have a man in charge that has been there and done that. He will have everything at his disposal thanks to their Billionaire owner Suleyman Kerimov and no team will fancy a trip to Russia to face them. Granted they don’t play at their own Dynamo Stadium due to security issues involving the city of Makhachkala and the autonomous republic of Dagestan (nope, me neither) but no one will fancy a trip to Russia to take them on wherever they may play. They have were 20/1 before the draw and have surprisingly been backed into 14/1 in some places given that they have been drawn against Liverpool and Udinese. What is in our favour is I can’t see Liverpool or Udinese fielding full strength teams. At best price of 18/1 on e/w terms we will have a dabble.

Recommended bets

Sporting Lisbon @ 66/1 BetVictor
Anzhi Makhachkala @ 18/1 Widely Available

Doris Double

Sheffield United are set to follow in Huddersfield footsteps of losing in the play off final then gaining promotion the following season. Huddersfield managed to beat the blades in last seasons final but they shouldn’t need to worry about the play offs this time round as they are taken to win the league straight out. League One doesn’t look overly strong and MK Dons apart they should have enough to win the league.

Villarreal somehow managed to get relegated on the final day of the season and the Champions League regulars now find themselves in the Segunda División. Tragedy struck the club as their new manager, Manuel Preciado Rebolledo, died of a heart attack on the day of his appointment and Julio Velázquez has now been brought in from managing their B team. Many players have left during the summer but at the time of writing they still have Rossi on their books and have signed Football Manager favourite Fernando Cavenaghi from River Plate. With that in mind they should have enough firepower to get them promoted as League Champions.

A double on the pair pays 21.5/1 with Bwin. A straight win double looks a good bet.

Treble Trouble

Looking at the domestic league we have identified Sheffield United as our pick in League One, so let’s looks at the Championship and League Two.

The Championship is wide open with a number of teams eyeing the two automatic places like a fat kid eyes cake. I’m taking Cardiff City to break free of their play off miseries and gain automatic promotion this year round. Chairman Chan Tien Ghee has made funds available to manager Malky Mackay and the signings of Jordon Mutch, Kim Bo-kyung and Craig Bellamy, should give them that little bit of quality needed to get out the division.

Rotherham are the choice in League Two. They have Crowley’s old manager, Steve Evans, in charge who jumped ship last year to take charge of Rotherham.  A top 3 place is the minimum they are expecting this year and they should achieve that with a bit to spare.

A win treble on the 3 pays 454/1 with William Hill and a promotion treble pays a nice 24.7/1 with Bwin. Back both.

Outsiders

Torquay United somehow transpired to throw away their promotion chance last year and in a division where four go up, they could get the promotion place they should have last year. Hull City, with Steve Bruce in charge, have bought well and are many peoples dark horses to do well this year. Both are 33/1 with William Hill and that makes them a tasty 1155/1. Small stakes e/w on this one.

Premier League Top Goalscorer

The three players to cheer scoring with their boots on this season are Agüero, Rooney and Jelavić.

Agüero managed to bag 23 goals in his first season for city and I can only see that being bettered this season. He has everything thing you need as a boot shooting centre forward and now that he is one year into playing in the Premier League he will know what to expect from opposing defenders. The caveat to that is they will also know his game but class will out and goals with his boots will be scored. 8/1 at the moment with BetVictor, that price should be snapped up.

Rooney has to make the shortlist as last years Golden Boot runner up looks sure to build on his 27 goals this season. Only injury will stop him playing the majority of matches and as the soccer u’s penalty taker he is going to get his far share of opportunities from the penalty spot because after all, man u buy all the ref’s so they’ll get loads of penalties won’t they? LOL! Again BetVictor are top price with 9/1.

The final selection is an e/w poke who has taken to the premier league like the proverbial duck to water. So step forward Nikica Jelavić. The Croatian International managed to score nine goals in 13 matches after signing in the January transfer window and after a full pre season with his team mates, he is taken to carry on that good form into the new season. Paddypower go 30/1 which seems a fair e/w price, get on.

The thing is with auntie post bets are that they can make you look like a genius or a fool and this year’s crop have certainly done that.

First up the losses and let’s start with the Europa league

So me, vio from the internet, thought that A. Madrid and Rocky Bilbao had no chance of reaching the final and/or winning the pot. Yeah, kinda got that one wrong.

PSV fell to Valencia in the last 16 and PSG didn’t even make it out of their group.

Sporting came agonisingly close to the final but a last minute Llorente goal sunk the 33/1 hopefuls, the long haired boot scoring bastard.

A championship treble of West Ham, Huddersfield and Crawley winning their leagues certainly kept the interest in during the season and all had the chance to win their league. And all somehow contrived to **** it up. Oh and the odds for that treble ? 181/1

Thankfully the promotion back up bet with 888.com has come to the rescue and just relies on Huddersfield to beat Sheffield U’s on satbo. Can’t see that happening, so ill lay them off for a profit.

Premier league top onion bagger provided a tidy win thanks to RVP (10/1). Suarez and Odemwingie didn’t raise a shot in anger at the award.

In Europe a solid bet was placed on 4 teams winning their league, the teams being Barcelona (2nd) Bayern (2nd), Porto (1st), PSG (2nd). Close but no Cigarhudson

So overall not to shabby, just shy on 2 ton profit but with a bit more luck it could have been so much better.

Roll on Euro 2012 where this bet takes centre stage > http://euro2012bettingtips.com/dutching-betting-tip-for-euro-2012/150/