*** World Darts Championship - Day 11 ***

Seasons greetings one and all. Got some spare time so thought I'd stick this up early and get some debate going before the action gets going again on Thursday

Wes Newton v Mark Walsh:

R2 - Newton bt Scott Rand 4-0
Ave: 99.53
180's: 5
HC: 144
CO%: 33%

Walsh bt Justin Pipe 4-2
Ave: 91.41
180's: 5
HC: 101
CO%: 50%

Opening match of the day sees Wes Newton take on Mark Walsh. I was kind of looking forward to a repeat of Newton v Pipe to see how he would cope but Walsh ruined that with a decent performance. I thought Newton was excellent in his 2nd round win and scored very heavily. If it wasn't for him messing about on doubles in 1 leg his % would have been over 40% and his average would have been over 100 and thats one of the best performances of the competition. Walsh played well for 2 sets before dropping off to a more usual level for him but he had enough breathing space to get over the line. His finishing was good but thats not always the case and I think he always tends to pull d20 inside when he's involved in close matches and under pressure. I fancy Newton to win this but 4/11 is no more than correct. I do like the look of the HC market though for a small bet as Newton has been in my notebook for a while as being capable of the big outs. He had a 135 in his opener followed but 4 ton plus finishes in R2 and coupled with the fact that Walsh is capable I think this is worth a small bet.

Recommendation: 1pt win HC over 130.5 @ 5/6 (Sky)

Simon Whitlock v Dave Chisnall:

R2 - Whitlock bt Colin Osborne 4-0
Ave: 96.34
180's: 4
HC: 164
CO%: 55%

Chisnall bt Daryl Gurney 4-1
Ave: 98.44
180's: 10
HC: 107
CO%: 40%

Game of the afternoon here in my view between 2 heavy scorers who play at a decent pace. Whitlock hasn't dropped a set yet in getting to this stage but I don't think he's exactly been pushed by the opposition. He's going to average somewhere in the mid to high 90's I think and if his finishing is good then he'll make Chisnall go. I think Chisnall has slipped under the radar a bit  this tournament as he's averaged 93 and 98 in his 2 victories and finished at 50% and 40% which is good for him. He's going to hit a lot of maxes and he needs to keep this up but I fancy he might. I think this could be a thriller going all the way to a deciding set and I like the look of 2 bets in this match. Firstly I'm going for a small bet on the high check market again as whitlock is probably the best exponent of ton plus finishes in the PDC. He hit a 164 in r2 which landed us the money and I think he will have plenty of chances again here. I also like the look of the 180's in this match as Chisnall is in my top 3 max hitters in the game. If this goes 6 or 7 sets as I expect then this mark is more than beatable and hopefully the 180's continue to flow.

Recommendation: 1pt win HC over 131.5 @ 5/6 (Sky) & 2pts win over 14 maxes @ 5/6 (BSQ)

James Wade v Vincent Van Der Voort:

R2 - Wade bt Steve Beaton 4-2
Ave: 92.13
180's: 5
HC: 130
CO%: 54%

VDV bt Dean Winstanley 4-2
Ave: 90.79
180's: 7
HC: 105
CO%: 47%

Last game of the afternoon sees the erratic Wade take on the quickfire Vincent Van Der Voort. Wade has played ok in his 2 wins but right now I don't think he's capable of anything above a 93 or 94 average. This might be enough to win some games but I doubt it will him a world championship. VDV has actually surprised me thus far and he played pretty well and finished well v Winstanley in his R2 win. He's always capable of throwing in a stinker though as is Wade though at this time. I think both are too unpredictable to have a bet in this as I toyed with betting VDV just as the price was a bit big. However given the h2h record (heavily in Wade's favour) I'm happy to sit this out.

Recommendation: No Bet

Michael Van Gerwen v Colin Lloyd:

R2 - MVG bt Peter Wright 4-2
Ave: 102.13
180's: 12
HC: 90
CO%: 35%

Lloyd bt Mark Webster 4-2
Ave: 92.81
180's: 4
HC: 117
CO%: 35%

First match on in the evening session sees the ever entertaining MVG take on forum favourite H2O Colin Lloyd. Van Gerwen was sensational in the final 4 sets v Peter Wright in R2 and averaged around 110 in the 14 legs within that period. If he plays like that for the full match then LLoyd is going to have to be at his very best to live with him. He is always prone to have a bad set or two and can miss doubles but in full flow he is an absolute joy to watch. Lloyd has actually surprised me with his run to the last 16 as he's been out of form on tv for a while now. He's played solid stuff though and dug in when its got tight especially v Young in R1. I really like the look of 2 bets here simply as I think the bookies have underestimated the potential of the maximums. First of all I like MVG's individual maxes due to his incredible scoring. He hit 12 in 23 legs in R2 so almost 1 every 2 legs which is pretty impressive. He's switching a lot less and when he gets the first dart right you just expect the next 2 to follow. secondly I like the match maxes too as I think it's been priced up as a line on MVG winning 4-0. I think even if he does the line could be beaten but provided Lloyd wins a set this will get beaten easily I think.

Recommendation: 3pts win over 10 maxes @ Evs (BSQ) & MVG over 6 maxes @ 5/6 (BSQ)

Gary Anderson v Raymond Van Barneveld:

R2 - Anderson bt John Bowles 4-3
Ave: 98.01
180's: 19
HC: 142
CO%: 28%

Barney bt Brendan Dolan 4-1
Ave: 95.75
180's: 4
HC: 93
CO%: 50%

I honestly can't wait for this match as a darts fan and really hope they both bring their best game and the best man wins. Anderson dodged a major bullet in his R2 win as Bowles missed 3 match darts to send him home but when he got his chance I was really impressed with his nerve which doesn't always hold. His scoring is absolutely frightening and definitely looks back to his best and if he can just up his % on the doubles then I still think he can go deep in this championship. barney was unplayable in his R1 win and although he averaged 95 in R2 he looked disinterested. This can sometime happen v Dolan though and he'll know he has to bring his best to the party for this. Maximums are the obvious place to start but at a line of over 17 its just too high for me despite them both hitting them for fun this past 10 days. For that line to get beat you need them both at their best and 6 sets minimum and there's no guarantee of that. I do think Anderson is overpriced though as I thought he'd be Evs or 11/10 and not 13/10. He's playing tremendous stuff and if he gets in front of barney it will be interesting to see if the headshaking comes back.

Recommendation: 2pts win Gary Anderson @ 13/10 (general)

Adrian Lewis v Kevin Painter:

R2 - Lewis bt Denis Ovens 4-1
Ave: 87.95
180's: 5
HC: 81
CO%: 31%

Painter bt Ronnie Baxter 4-3
Ave: 95.86
180's: 11
HC: 151
CO%: 43%

Last match of R3 sees the underperforming champion take on a former runner up in Painter. Lewis has been bang average in his 2 wins averaging 83 and 88 and he just doesn't look at his best and hasnt all year. This tournament especially his 1st dart has been constantly low on the treble and he looks a pale shadow of the player who won it in stunning fashion 2 years ago. Painter has averaged 95 in both his victories and he's a guy you know will try his heart out to get a win which I'm not sure is the case with Lewis. I firmly believe Lewis is there for the taking and I think Painter is the man for the job though I was hoping for a slightly bigger price. However I do like another bet to go with it so hopefully we cop both ways. Painter most maxes is a joke price for me at 21/10 and it just needs to have a bet on it. Its not a market to go mad on I always feel but Lewis is struggling round the treble and Painter has hit 15 to his 10 in the tournament to date. Just on those stats I'm happy to have a few quid on at over 2/1.

Recommendation: 1pt win Kevin Painter @ 7/4 (SJ) & 1pt win Painter most maxes @ 21/10 (PP)

Summary: Probably the busiest day so far with me with so many bets and it could either be a glorious day or bloody grim! I really think the MVG match is key though and the lines just look too low right now considering how capable he is of power scoring. As for the rest I fancy Anderson & Painter which given my straight up record this week means they both lose but hopefully not.

Best of luck to all punting on the matches and hopefully the banter and winners is as good as always for the arrers fans on here
HH