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16 Jul 17 18:02
Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
Bling was 130 points behind Kittel and never even considered to be a chance to get it much closer, just a couple of stages ago. Now, Bling has brough it to within 79 points difference, and if SUN have the firepower and tactical acumen, and the plan works, then Bling can get it to within 9 points of Kittel in Green by the conclusion of stage 16, which comes after the Rest Day, tomorrow.

Short 165km stage with a starting profile which can easily drop Kittel, even though he has been climbing well, the cat.3 right from the start will be too much. Long descent gets Bling the Intermediate win and he closes it down by a further 20 points, so only 50 points down.

...But there is still the stage win if he pushes it with teammates and like in the Intermediates should be the fastest amongst the remaning group on the line, and that's...

Bang for Bling -- 50 points!

...Now only 9 points behind Kittel in Green and -- GAME ON!

Obviously this little project requires the full team to be involved and -- in fact -- fully-committed, right from the very start of stage 16, but they have proven they are very strong and this does play out; for instance: Barguil goes KOM points so that is two-birds-with-one-stone kind of stuff, then Geschke, like today that's his role so go the bearded great one, then Ten Dam, about time he did something but obvioulsy can handle these gradients more than where he was before, Arndt won't get a resigning if he doesn't show something and it is within his ability, and it's not asking much of the rest of the team to pull their weight for what would be a big coup against Kittel if SUN can see this plan as clearly as I do.

Does anyone else see it happening or is too much to expect?

Kittel: 4/25 with the Books. Lots of liquidity on here to lay Kittel at 1/2, although I never advocate laying anyone.
Bling: 7/2 with the Books. No liquidity on here, though.
Pause Switch to Standard View Does SUN have the firepower and...
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Report SwingingPick July 18, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Report SwingingPick July 18, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Report SwingingPick July 18, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Report SwingingPick July 18, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Report SwingingPick July 18, 2017 4:57 PM BST
29 points the difference for Bling, now.
Tomorrow, on stage 17, an early Intermediate after a cat.2 almost assures him of another 20 points, which might make it only 9 points the difference.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 12:00 PM BST
Bling has gone favourite in the Points competition, btw.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 12:24 PM BST
Now, 9 points behind Kittel after stage 17 Intermediate Sprint win. Kittel crashing earlier.
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:01 PM BST
Bling in Green after Kittel abandons from injury sustained after crash on stage 17. That's an unasailable lead for Bling!
Report SwingingPick July 19, 2017 2:16 PM BST
Didn't want him to win like this, but Bling put the writing on the wall when he won that stage 14 and signalled his form impressively.
Report everyone's a winner July 19, 2017 7:43 PM BST
great insight from you, as always. I wish I'd laid Kittel when you hinted at it (yes I know you don't do lays Grin) but well done all the same!
Report SwingingPick July 20, 2017 9:26 AM BST
Cheers for that, Winner. It's not that I don't lay, I do, I just tend not to advocate it or rather recommend it in my posts, on account of not wanting the responsibility for someone losing their hard-earned money. I have been told by people that they do actually follow my recommendations, suggestions and insights on this cycling forum, so for me to say 'lay him' or 'lay that' means I am responsbile for someone's liability, in a way, and I don't want that kind of responsbility since gambling can be a problem in society for some people.

If I hint at things than perhaps people know what they are getting themselves into and are more likely to realise that the risks they might be taking are solely of their own making. There are always winners in the market, so laying is really unnecessary all the time, and to be frank I really enjoy it when people contribute on the forum and teach the forum a thing or two. Sometimes even a simple or obvious question might generate an answer which leads toward a profitable outcome because of inspiring a new way of seeing a problem to be solved.

I think if more people were to have engaged me on this thread than more of us might have had more on Bling to enter Paris in the Green Jersey. I'm not complaining, but there have been times in the past, mainly when MC was driving the forum, where we have reached a consensus and it sounded like we had all walked away from a race with a nice chunk of change.
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