tdf 2017 Stage 15

Typical traverse through the Massif Central with its relatively high elevation and plenty of undulating roads of significant climbing difficulty. This one looks a lot harder than stage 14 in the 2015 edition. It's slightly longer, and whilst it also contains four categorized and additional uncategorized climbs, they are much more difficult on this occasion. The cat.1s, one at the start and one nearer the end look particularly challenging, especially the cat.1 with 40kms to-go since it's 8.3kms @ 7.4%, with a 1.8km section in the middle at 14%. Then that's followed with an 18km section of descending where a lead might be consolidated by the rider who was to attack on the 14% section, however output would have to be measured very finely indeed, on account of a deceptively tough cat.4 soon after with 1.9kms @ 6.8%. Which is then followed by an uncategorized bump which is similar in nature to that one late in stage 9, where Barguil finally cracked and Bardet went past him. I think the key to this stage from my analysis is its conclusion; the uncatgeorized bump which -- on paper looks like it -- will decide the winner.

It is highly likely that this stage will be one of those "transit" stages where a big breakaway group is permitted to go up the road and the peloton just switch off completely after being satisfied with its composition, effectively giving themselves an early Rest Day. It's going to be hot and sunny, they've just had some tough stages and the Rest Day cannot come soon enough -- might as well start today for the majority.

Warren Barguil has a handy lead in the KOM competition and with the climb beginning soon after the start and offering 15 points, it is correct anaylsis to expect him to want to protect his lead over De Gendt, Landa and Roglic, and therefore I would expect him to be involved in the early clashes as the riders seek to form the day's breakaway group. Barguil was involved in the two big breakaway stages 8/9, and finally won a stage from the breakaway when having the strongest and smartest kick in a 4-up sprint on stage 13. Incidentally, he moved into the Polkadot jersey on stage 9 and confirmed his intentions to protect it into Paris with that stage 13 ride to win. With Voeckler being the last FRA rider to win the Polkadot jersey in 2012, Barguil knows the significance of winning it as a FRA rider and he should be fighting for it today, which will consequently see him make the break, perhaps along with Bling but more like Geschke since this stage is too hard for yesterday;s stage winner. Barguil was installed as the 12/1 second favourite at SP and has shortened into 10/1, with some E/W value. He is still being matched on here at 11/1 and better, with 13/1 representing fair value given his climbing talent and therefore the ability to make an attack on the steep part of the final cat.1 climb.

I also like Lilian Calmejane for the breakaway. With teammate and mentor Voeckler having been involved in failed breakaways on stage 5/9/14 and conversely Calmejane winning stage 8 from a breakaway after showing his impressive potential in the breakaway on stage 3 when pressing forward after Hardy, De Gendt and Perichon had given up -- he has the youthful enthusiasm and talent to want to be involved today, and respresent's DEN's best chance for the stage win. 

Steve Cummings won the 2015 stage 14 from a long-range breakaway, beating two much better climbers and whilst I understand him being installed as the favourite for this stage, I question if he has recovered from his solo attempt on stage 12. He tends to need a longer timeframe to recover from such heroic rides, and unless he is on good sensations I think this stage might be too early for him.