TdF 2017 Stage 14

The riders will be climbing for much of the day even though there are only two cat.3 climbs, nevertheless it's the finale which will tempt the versatile sprinters and puncheurs to want to be involved in stage honours. The 570m ramp of the Cote de Saint-Pierre @ 9.6% is a punchy little climb to the line which was also used for the finale in stage 13 of the 2015 Tour from Muret to Rodez, and where GVA held off Sagan in a narrow go to the line.

This entire stage does indeed look similar to the stage in 2015 as they head in the same direction, however they do not proceed along the same roads, apart that is for the finale. On the previous occasion it looked like the three breakaway riders of Kelderman, De Gendt and Gautier looked like they would hold on to decide the win between them, however once the sprinters' teams became involved in working to bring them back they only clung to some 30secs with 6km to-go and were caught close to the line as GVA and Sagan came past fast.

*** GVA Won this stage in 2015 from Sagan, who picked-up his fourth of five 2nd-place finishes. Now with Porte out of the race BMC are desperate to salvage something for themselves in this Tour, and a stage win attempt with the Olympic Champion is clearly on the cards, here.

GVA has had a superb season through the spring, and he held his condition for so long that it was naturally expected that he would struggle throughout the lead-in races for here, in the Suisse and his Nationals.

It might be argued that by finishing in 4th-place on stage 3 (with Sagan, Bling and Dan Martin in front of him) he still hadn't found any form and is likely to struggle on this finale, however I think his finishing position can be deceiving when viewed against what he showed in terms of his condition. He was effectively on or near the front of the peloton for about 5kms in total, with teammates Schar, De Marchi and then later Porte, either bringing him to the front too early, abandoning him, arriving too late to lend assistance or in the case of Porte disrupting his tactics at what was already a lost cause situation. In short, his finish when seen against his unnecessary effort in being positioned largely on the front, was an admirable ride for being able to hold his run for so long when there wasn't much in the finish.

11/4 at SP and has gone out to 7/2, which is surprising. Very good value. WIN ONLY.

Tha class rider in the race for this stage. Racing aganinst inferior opposition. The one to beat.

* Bling Matthews Was never involved here in 2015 when 17th at some 17secs down, however he is better than that this time around, and it is clear that his positioning in the sprints has been improving. Moreover, by getting into the breaks on stages 8 and 9 it does appear that it has sharpened his condition. The latter stage for the purpose of Intermediate points, which he collected successfully. It also appears that he has changed his characteritics a little if only for this Tour, and I wonder if this grinding burn finale is as advantageous to him as more of the punchy finish he enjoyed on stage 3 or even in the sprints, however he is clearly riding with confidence and signalling he is right up for this.

Can give a good account of himself. One of the main contenders.

Was installed as a 7/1 second favourite at SP, and has found popular support throughout, coming down into 4/1.

1/4* John Degenkolb Finished in 4th-place and at 7secs behind, here last time. Finished in 2nd-place to Kittel in the sprint on stage 10. Has won this year when d=negotiating a difficult finale in stage 3 in Dubai. Also, rode well in the finale over a similar finale to here when finishing in 2nd-place in a GP race in SUI. Looks to better suited over this course.

Could be coming into this at the right time. Some E/W claims. Worthy of consideration.

20/1 at SP, out into 22/1, should be 33/1 as a minumum for (E/W) place terms.

1/16* Alberto Bettiol 23yo ITA rider for CDT without a win at pro level to his name. Undeveloped prospect, however when combining his 2nd-place to finish to Naesen in the 2016 Bretagne Classic over monument distance, with his ride in Poland in the same year, the suggestion exists he can be a very strong classics rider. Still might be missing the robust weight of the top contenders here, but he has a lot of natural talent.

Showed an eye-catching performance when just behind the others to finish in 5th-place on stage 3.

Opened-up at the incredible odds of 150/1 and was quickly slashed down into 40/1. No value now. E/W place robust
Can figure in the finish for the podium. Take on trust.