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12 Jul 17 10:24
Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
204km flat stage with a cat.4 climb included to signal the beginning of about a 44km section of road with a gradual rise. At the conclusion of which, and with approximately 14kms from the finish the road does dip down suddenly, which is an interesting feature for the potential it holds as the location for an attack point, under the right conditions. I'm not getting excited about it, since a lot of other things have to fall to fall into place first, the first might be the wind direction, a slight tailwind might be beneficial for breakaway riders looking for a short-range attack.

In any case, the finale is on a slight down-angle, making a fast sprint very likely, and advantaging the bigger sprinters, of which Kittel is one. Actually, I think this finale is made to order for Kittel and

Kittel opened as short as expected, installed at the prohibitive odds of 57/100, and has only slightly improved with the Books into 61/100. That's still too short, althoughe he is much better on here with very good liquidity, and presently he represents 83% of the matched bets in this market.
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Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 1:00 PM BST
Marcato Veteran ITA rider for UAD who hasn't won a race for 5 years.
Bodnar Veteran Polish TT specialist rider who is Sagan's experienced lieutenant. Won a couple of stages last year.
Backaert is a 27yo farmer from BEL who goes best in the classics for WGG, with only the one pro win last year in Austria.

These guys all know each other quite well and so it's not a surprise to see them combining together well. They have a nice gap at 4+mins, however I'd like them to keep it at 5mins or thereabouts for a long stretch and once the peloton begins to accelerate the chase, these riders have the engines to increase their speed and maintain an intersting if decreasing gap, and the dip at 14kms to-go, which I mentioned, might be an advantage for them, so this stage might actually be interesting, so am staying with it for the most part.

I mean, these three are not really going, and they have a couple of extra gears, so still a long way to go but I like the composition of this break, the road conditins are favourable and the dip will be an advantage -- looking forward for a close one today. Good luck to all.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 1:40 PM BST
Well, it seems that the peloton are as impressed by the quality of this break as I am -- they are giving them a lot of respect by closing them down to 2+mins in very short order. This could prove to be a problem, if the bring them back too early it might create the situation for fresh attacks out of the peloton, potentially containing fresher and stronger riders.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 2:23 PM BST
Yep, boring stage, the peloton are treating these guys seriously and therefore nothing is really happening of great interest. They're still a long way fro the start of the climb and then the long incline.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 3:17 PM BST
lol, the peloton has eased-off so that they don't close on the breakaway too much with the approaching Intermediate Sprint potentially providing a springboard for another attack from the peloton.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 3:23 PM BST
The true believers, the breakaway group, at the Intermediate Sprint...
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 3:24 PM BST
Kittel was coasting...
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 3:54 PM BST
Breakaway about to end -- the gradual inclines have just slowed them down too much, meanwhile the peloton ramp-up the speed!
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:11 PM BST
Wow! Nice attack by Bodnar -- shows why Sagan brought him to Tinkoff and then to here at BOH -- very strong -- brutal strength!
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:18 PM BST
Okay, if Bodnar can get it back to a 1min over this dip approaching, we might get some excitement outside of a bunch sprint -- big ask though, he's tiring a bit, understandably.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:26 PM BST
Bodnar is all-in now -- love his effort -- the peloton bringing him back gradually, though.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:27 PM BST
He's on the dip -- 75km/h on the descent 40secs lead.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:33 PM BST
Off the front for 200kms and riding like a lionhearted, but the peloton are too fresh and it'll be a bunch sprint!
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:35 PM BST
Panzerwagen did some damage -- Thwaites turning the screws -- Bodnar fading -- great ride regardless!
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:36 PM BST
I'm on Kittel again -- perfect position today!
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:37 PM BST
Much closer than the peloton would've liked -- bunch sprint!
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:38 PM BST
King Kittel!
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:40 PM BST
Five wins -- record!
King Kittel -- take a bow!
Never looked like he was in trouble!
Report monarch July 12, 2017 4:43 PM BST
It just looked so effortless didnt it. Outstanding stuff from Marcel (and you too SP !!).
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 4:50 PM BST
Cheers monarch, hope you had some on, also.

Decent ride by Groenewegen, quite smart and improving, there's a lot to like about his ride, however Kittel hardly even used a draft and just pressed it a couple of times when required. Best srpinter in the world right now -- no one better!
Report monarch July 12, 2017 4:53 PM BST
No joy i'm afraid SP. Was on Dylan Cry. And for the 3rd time this tour i play 2nd fiddle to Marcel in a stage...
Report monarch July 12, 2017 4:58 PM BST
Back to the mountains next though. Always had more luck betting on mountain stages
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 5:01 PM BST
Well that certainly won't happen tomorrow so you'll be happy to put it behind you -- probably no chance till Paris now for the sprinters, I think. Some might argue, though.
Report SwingingPick July 12, 2017 5:07 PM BST
No worries -- good luck tomorrow monarch -- back to some excitement, although Bodnar was exciting today -- got a nice cheer from the crowd for the Combativity Award too -- nice!
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