TdF 2017 Stage 8

The Tour finished atop the Station des Rousses on stage 7 in the 2010 edition when covering some 166kms. There were exactly twice as many categorized climbs on that occasion, and it was FRA rider Sylvan Chavanel who went clear with Rafael Valls from a 5-man breakaway, whilst solo leader Pineau was up ahead of them on the road, hunting KOM points successfully. Chavanel and Valls went past Pineau, and then Chavanel attacked Valls at the foot of the final climb to solo for the victory.

If judging this stage simply by the rating of the categorized climbs then it gets progressively more difficult over the 188km distance. The last of which being the cat.1 climb over the Cote de la Combe de Laisia-Les Molunes, which is some 11.7kms long @ a gradient of 6.4% and with no really steep ramps at 9% or over. Once the climb is negotiated the riders will still have a 12km section of largely undulating road to the finish-line, and I think this will be a heavy burn for the riders involved in going for the win, and therefore I think it might have a semi-classics feel to it, especially if there's a suitable group involved.

On the basis of it coming down to a select peloton group summiting the cat.1, together and in the lead, then I think Dan Martin (16/1 at SP into 12/1) stands out as the clear favourite on account of the somewhat LBL-flavoured finale. However, with 1.) two hot days in the saddle over the past two stages, and 2.) the next stage 9 being much more important for the GC contenders, and 3.) BMC learning from their mistake from the other day of leading the peloton when Porte was not in Yellow, and essentially giving SKY an armchair ride up until the foot of the final climb -- we are far more likely to see a good-sized and talented breakaway group of pirates being permitted to go. I would also add; the breakaway being permitted to fight for stage honours as SKY switch off and give the peloton an easy ride, however I don't recall the last time they did that and so therefore I think it's more likely that they monitor the situation as they keep the breakaway within their sights, at least to some extent, and especially if one of the breakaway riders is the VL on GC on the road.

DEN have had a breakaway rider represented on every stage except stage 4, so I would expect Voeckler to become involved today, however I don't think he can possibly win and 80/1 at SP seems short. Moreover he has come in overnight, now 66/1. I would prefer that they use the promising rookie Calmejane instead, however at 33/1 at SP and presently, he is much too short, also. Given the Chavanel connection to this stage it might very well be the case that both riders find themselves in the break. If that is the case than Calmejane showed on stage 3 how hard he can be, whilst Voeckler might give a bit of his customary performance, and customarily drift back into the peloton.

It is interesting to note that both Wellens (18/1 at SP into 16/1) and Gallopin (22/1, steady) were installed above De Gendt (25/1 into 18/1) on the boards, so clearly De Gendt is not going very well, which supports some of the observations of his riding on stages 3 and 5 when in both breakaways, and whilst he might get into the breakaway nevertheless on this occasion, I cannot hold much confidence in a combatative performance from him to win, and that price is ridiculous when he was available at three times that on stage 5. Moreover, Gallopin's foot is reportedly still the size of a bloody grapefruit after his crash in the opener, so it's just weird that he should be in double digits at all; I would've thought backers would be writing their own ticket for him.