TdF 2017 Stage 3

Some tension building in the peloton, and the fact that they have hardly permitted the gap to the breakaway from getting out beyond 2mins all day, along with the fact that BOH and SUN and QST are threading riders into the line on the front -- would suggest that this break is going nowhere, and are unlikely to fight it out for stage honours.

De Gendt was on the front at the start attempting to get into the break, but when he missed his opportunity it looks like teammate Hansen went out to get into the break -- working hard to do so -- in order to neutralise the KOM points for him. Just wasn't De Gendt's day to get into the break, it happens, the fact he tried is somewhat reassuring.

These in the break are not really the KOM contenders I would have expected in the break today. In any case, I think unless we see a short-range breakaway attempt, perhaps on the cat.4 some 15kms from the finish -- which I think is unlikely, only because it is too easy -- it will come down to a splintering bunch sprint, in very-much a classics-style finish amongst the versatile sprinters and to a lesser extent the puncheurs.

Sagan Was involved in the fast bunch sprint yesterday, and is suited over this finale much more. Had two wins in his last start Suisse ride, and looks in very good form. Likely to be involved in this for a long way as he'll assert his authority over his rivals. Opened up at 11/4 and has not really shortened much, which is surprising. Deserving favourite. Class rider. Go close.
Gilbert Racing over home roads and the finale suits, however his form has fallen away since the Ardennes in April. Nevertheless, with his birthday in two days time, he'll want the early present of a stage win. Hard to discount. Take on trust.
GVA BMC are not really contributing, but this finale has his name written all over it, and he will be permitted free reign to go for it if experiencing good sensations. Form is in question, though. Opened at 9/1 and has been matched at 11/1 on here. Presently 10s. Class rider who needs to lift. Worth of some consideration.
Bling Another of the versatile sprinters who should be suited over the finale. Patchy form, but with SUN on the front he will be going for this today. Needs a win for the team, so expect him to go deep. Whether that will be good enough is difficult to say. Opened at 9/2 and has drifted out into 8s on here, so exceptional value, imo. I'm not a big fan, but likely to be involved for a long way. Take on trust.
Trentin The QST workhorse who has always been working for other more noted riders in the team, looks like he finally gets his chance on this stage as repayment for his services during the season. Expecting a big ride from him today, actually. Not in standout form, but always a natural fit for such classics-style finales. Opened at 25/1 with the Books, and can be found in the 30s on here. Value. Interesting proposition. Consider closely.
Swift Could be a little too hard for him, but that recent Alpe d'Huez ride in the Dauphine was really impressive, and he comes into the race in very good condition. Opened at 25/1 with the Books and can be found on here in bits-and-pieces at double that, so good value. Could surprise with a big ride. Treat warily.

Good luck to all,
SP

I was just looking at Stybar, he fits even better than Trentin actually, and news from the team have him interested, also. Opened at 33/1 and shorter than on here, so finding good support. Ulissi has an injury question over him from stage 2, I believe, so I wouldn't go there. Kwiatkowski, I wouldn't dissuade anyone from backing, however he seems to prefer more faster sprints than these lactic-busting ones. Vuillermoz is one who would also probably require it to be steeper, he won on the Mur-de-Bretagne in 2015 edition of the Tour, which was a  longer and steeper climb. I don't think we'll get that here.

De Gendt on the move with Calmejane and one other.

De Gendt has cracked them, I think.

It's a lively break, after a sneaky attack, but the gap is still small albeit increasing, however the peloton have announced their intentions for this stage from the start, the gap never really increasing beyond 2mins, so nothing has really changed, except that the breakaway is of a better quality with De Gendt involved and they are fresher than the original break which went out the back, except for Hardy who will be riding for Perichon, now. Calmejane is only 24yo, however he is an interesting rider, he won that summit finish stage in the Vuelta last year.

I still think it is with the peloton, but this bit of road is critical. Break pulling, peloton pulling.

Hardy cracks -- fair enough! But De Gendt!? WTF?

Splintering bunch sprint coming up -- it's classics season in summer.

GVA at 10s on here with only 8kms to-go is too big a price at this point.

winning despite losing a foot out of the pedal, what would he have done without troubles? Just short of Yellow, his gap on Thomas would have been even bigger

What's with the goggles?