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SwingingPick
07 Apr 17 17:58
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Date Joined: 11 Jul 11
| Topic/replies: 5,589 | Blogger: SwingingPick's blog
*** Greg Van Avermaet In scintillating form this season with three classics wins and two 2nd-place finishes, the first of the 2nd's in the modern-classic of Strade Bianche and the second in the monument of RVV last start, and he has previously suggested he can sustain his condition for a significant portion of his season.

Did not ride here last year on account of sustaining a broken collarbone in RVV, but finished on the podium in 2015 when bettering his previous best of a 4th-place finish in 2013.

Tipped earlier on this forum to win GWinFF when landing some nice bets, after backing-up from a three-up sprint to win in E3, form which is fully-franked with Gilbert's win in RVV. Had previously won OHN in late February to put him on course of matching Dutch former pro rider Jan Raas' superb 1981 classics season, which he can trump if he hasn't already, by winning here.

Surprising to see him installed on the fourth line of betting, presently 8/1 with PP and 10/1 with BS, whom are taking him on. I had expected him to be a solid 5/1 second favourite. Very good value at 10/1 or better on an E/W basis for a rider at the height of his powers.

The testing material. Honest type. Commands the upmost respect.

* John Degenkolb Sat-out the first part of his 2016 season on account of injury, so did not get the opportunity to defend his 2015 title over-this-trip, when after taking a sit in the velodrome he was the first to-go with his impressive sprinter's turn-of-speed to win long.

Has only the one win for this season when winning the third stage in Dubai at 200kms. Nevertheless, he has targeted this race this year with a carefully-selected calendar of races, beginning his build-up with a solid 7th-place finish in MSR, then 13th in E3, a 5th in GWinFF, and a last start 7th in RVV when finishing third to Pippo and Kristoff in the 14-strong second group at 53secs down. Especially noteworthy have been those last two starts, where he could be found surging on the front in impressive tests of his condition.

Opened at 6/1 with PP and 7/1 best, and has remained solid at 6/1, throughout. Is short at 6/1 and 9/1 at W/O terms is preferred.

Coming into this at the right time. Go close.

* Alexander Kristoff Has shown recent signs of turning around his season, the first of which was when sprinting for 4th-place in MSR. Was then seen riding forwardly in E3, however was always disadvantaged by the hellingen and finished in 27th-place, some 2mins down. Was much better suited over the course through the Flanders Fields of Gent-Wevelgem, however a puncture at around 35kms to-go put paid to any hopes of a top result. Next, he claimed his first win of the season at 200kms when going long to outsprint Theuns and Kittel in the second stage at 3 Days of De Panne in difficult conditions. That hardened him up further and he consolidated his solid form by again leading home the peloton for a 5th-place finish in RVV, last start.

Much better suited over the flat cobbled course on offer here, and is comfortable over this distance.

Opened at 18/1 across the boards and has hardly moved with PP, still best. Represents very good E/W value.

Exciting proposition. Expect a bold showing.

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Replies: 41
By:
SwingingPick
When: 08 Apr 17 09:51
A consistent forecast for race day, with mild temps and sunny conditions expected. Little to no wind. Might be some dust on the corners so hopefully that won't cost any rider. Looking at a smokey still, but not sure it's worth it at this point.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 08 Apr 17 14:22
Finally GVA is coming right in across the boards, now into 7/1. Still think he should be 5/1, and apparently so does WillHill, that's where they've gone.
By:
bigH
When: 08 Apr 17 21:04
I am like a kid on Xmas morning
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 10:28
Very exciting stuff!

I was looking to add Keukeleire and/or Turbo and/or GVK, but I think that even if they make the selections, and I think they should have good rides, they're just still a class down on the established WT riders and unlikely to win in a group against them. Plus, taking three such relatively short prices restricts any further investments. I did throw a couple of coins on Thwaites for fun, and am interested to see how Debusschere goes. Also, I tipped Senechal last year so will be interesting to see if he can finally take a step at this class level over his preferred course. I think making selections will be enough to give him the confidence he requires.

Should be a cracking race, can't wait!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 11:35
Reminder that the whole race is live -- from start-to-finish -- break just forming some 65kms in. KAT have two in there, so clearly Kristoff is feeling good. And they have the Panzerwagon for his devoted support too, so good signs for him, very early on, though.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 12:05
Turbo is down and staying down, unlucky.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 12:41
Turbo got up & is still in the race -- looked like a bad crash but he's okay.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 13:36
Terpstra -- out!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 13:46
Have added a bit of the Gorilla here, looks very forward and there's no reason, barring any bad luck, why he shouldn't be involved. Still available at 59/1.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 14:19
GVA is back in this thanks to Sagan's bad luck...
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:11
Oss is so strong, we've seen that over the classics season, he's been an absolute hardman, so this a huge benefit for GVA later, being on the front.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:14
This is a very fine race I think, very subtle in terms of attrition rates, and wide open.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:25
Whatever Stuyven does here, he has confirmed his quality, I believe. It would be huge for him if he finishes it off strongly.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:29
Would really like GVA to go soon, there's an explosion of attacks coming, and he can steal this with Oss before it all comes back together, and 25kms is well doable.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:33
The Carrefour is going to show if the GVA group will stay away. Oss is nearing empty, and nobody else coming through.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:36
Oss blows up -- Top ride for GVA.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:40
Here we go -- the rac should be decided here!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:42
Sagan is empty.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:45
Sagan has bridged there when on empty, doesn't look good for Boonen and Degenkolb. Come on GVA,
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:46
Where has this Langeveld riding been in the past five years or so?
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:50
Gap going up for GVA, come on my son. Bloody Stybar sitting on.
By:
Raggetty
When: 09 Apr 17 15:53
Nice work whoever got 30 GVA. Chapeau.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:53
GVA deserves this, deserves his first monument after everything he has done in his career, particularly since getting gold in Rio, and this season of course. Come on, son.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:54
Don't jinx it Raggety he is not home yet, Langeveld has looked good and Stybar has good results here in the past...
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:56
Oh, didn't mean to infer I got 30s, but the Books will feel soar after this should GVA get the cherry on his season, Sundae;-)
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:58
Ouch!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 15:59
Lol! GVA indicates for Stybar to close Langeveld...
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:02
Velodrome -- three-up sprint!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:03
COME ON GVA!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:04
GET IN,
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:04
GVA WINS, brilliant!
By:
Raggetty
When: 09 Apr 17 16:05
Wonderful. Well done SP.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:05
You knew that was coming! He is fierce -- absolute legend! Fierce!
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:07
Cheers mate -- so happy for GVA, he really deserved his first monument this season, and to win like that, absolutely fierce! Wonderful.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:10
Mr. Jan Raas -- meet your new match;-)
By:
Raggetty
When: 09 Apr 17 16:13
Always comforting to hear Sean Kelly say that Stybar had a better finishing kick than GVA.He rarely gets it right. Good that Langeveldt got a podium too.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:16
Will review some of these points later, but Langeveld showed this sort of class some five years ago and then fell off the radar, so absolutely top result to get on the podium.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:19
And what an interview, the fatigue is just sculpted on his face -- that's what it takes to win a monument, and for him to say he was so tired, that's just a Champion in every sense of the word, I believe.
By:
SwingingPick
When: 09 Apr 17 16:23
Still has the strength to hold such an iconic trophy -- of course he does!
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