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CASTELROTTO/KASTELRUTH > ALPE DI SIUSI/SEISERALM (ITT) Sunday 22 MAY 2016 (10.8 km)
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Wow this Giro has come to life. Not too much to preview today except to say this will be very hard. I'd have had Nibali favourite for this stage pre-race but it would not be surprising to see him beaten by Chaves or Kruijswijk. After initially getting dropped I thought Nibali rode a very good race yesterday. He maintained the distance between both the group in front and the group behind and limited the losses. The last two mountain TTs in the Giro have been won by the overall winner, Nibali and Quintana, and whilst today will be a big pointer towards the overall winner, with things so close between Chaves, Kruijswijk and Nibali nothing will be decided today. Nibali is still favourite for both this stage and the overall title in my eyes. It's difficult to imagine this being won by anyone other than the top three in the GC, but possibly Valverde, Henao, Majka and Uran are contenders for the top 5.
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Wow this Giro has come to life. Not too much to preview today except to say this will be very hard. I'd have had Nibali favourite for this stage pre-race but it would not be surprising to see him beaten by Chaves or Kruijswijk. After initially getting dropped I thought Nibali rode a very good race yesterday. He maintained the distance between both the group in front and the group behind and limited the losses. The last two mountain TTs in the Giro have been won by the overall winner, Nibali and Quintana, and whilst today will be a big pointer towards the overall winner, with things so close between Chaves, Kruijswijk and Nibali nothing will be decided today. Nibali is still favourite for both this stage and the overall title in my eyes. It's difficult to imagine this being won by anyone other than the top three in the GC, but possibly Valverde, Henao, Majka and Uran are contenders for the top 5.
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Interesting you raise the possibility of Chaves beating Nibali, I thought the same on the back of yesterday's ride, but upon closer inspection I found loads of evidence for Chaves being vulnerable in TTs, and with the lightest of winds here he will face a tough task to beat the top-2 of Nibali and Kruijswijk and may even tail-out of the podium with a nervous uneven ride. The climb actually looks most ideal for Kruijswijk and his performance in comparison to that of Nibali's today may reinforce pre-conceived opinions for his chances for the win in Torino, but I think Nibali will hit-back today by claiming the win, he sort of prepared for this yesterday by riding solo, however obviously his performance will be reliant on him recovering from yesterday's altitude effects. Nibali is a champion, he has been in this position before many times, and I would expect nothing less that a strong display of his authority in this race with a solid win.
Good luck to all, SP |
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Unlike some strong opinions about Zakarin's chances at this race, I never rated him, however just having a look at this climb and am interested to see how he he goes, looks like it might really suit him and he could get really close, so 18/1 E/W is worth a look.
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Kruiswijk and Zakarin
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That first time-check is really deceptive, coming after only 2.5kms of actual climbing...
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Zakarin clearly not recovered from his crash
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Froomiforov of course
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Spectators definitely cost Kruijswijk the stage win.
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Kruijswijk deserved that stage win, pity he couldn't hold his smoothness to the line, but an excellent performance to gain more time on the GC favourites, of which Valverde was the best at +23secs in 3rd-place. Nibali was floundering long before the issue with the fans and his subsequent mechanical failure, those aspects just pronounced what was a terrible ride from him -- clearly he did not recover from yesterday. Zakarin faded badly toward the end, that's why I can't consider him as a legitimate GC contender, he hit that 11% section and knocked himself out. Expected worse from Chaves, but that looks like it'll be his best ever TT performance, so clearly he is improving as a GT rider.
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watch out for Russia at the Olympics
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I'm willing to wager that Foliforov goes to KAT at the end of this season.
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Obviously Nibali hasn't got the form yet. I'm surprised that people were confident about his chances here and were backing him as the favourite.
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Interesting nugget that you didn't make your surprised-state known at the start of the race in NED.
 So tell us o'wise one, will Kruiswijk make it to Torino in Pink?  |
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I was supposed to predict Nibali wouldn't win the stage 16 TT while the race was still in the Netherlands? I thought Kruiswijk would win the stage as you can see from my post above.
Regarding "Shoulders" Kruiswijk he has a good chance and I'm happy I got on when I did. He had shown to be one of the strongest riders on most days and was an easy addition, especially considering the question marks surrounding Valverde and Nibali. Likewise Chavez who I added before adding the "human coat hanger". I think for those who have Chavez and the Krusher at good prices adding Nibali at 7-8's would be a good move now. Or if you think Nibali's form will remain inconsistent or he goes into win-it-or-bin-it mode maybe Majka or Zakarin could get onto the podium at a good price. At the moment Kruiswijk looks to be the strongest rider but you can't say that about his team. Surely Astana and Movistar will look to isolate him as often as possible. |
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*stage 15 TT
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