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ALPAGO (FARRA) CORVARA Saturday 21 MAY 2016 (210 km)
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The Queen stage of the 2016 Giro d'Italia and we're live on Eurosport from noon in the UK. Yesterday's first real venture into the mountains proper was instructive if not race-defining for most and will have acted as a softening up blow for today's stage and also Sunday's mountain time trial and by the morning of the rest day on Monday we should have a much better idea of which way this Grand Tour is going to swing. There's 210km to negotiate today, and most of it takes place in the Dolomites. There's 5400m of vertical climbing to be done today, and 6 categorised climbs. They head out from Alpaga and the road starts to head immediately upwards. They move upwards fairly slowly at first, after 85km they have gone from 400m to 1400m. Things have been fairly straightforward up to this point but there's then 4 climbs in the next 50km.
Pordoi = Cat 1, 9.2km at 6.9%
Sella = Cat 2, 5.5km at 7.9%
Gardena = Cat 3, 5.75km at 4.3%
Campolongo = Cat 2 6.0km at 5.8%
Each of these climbs is followed by a descent, some of which are challenging and technical. Indeed there is actually more km of descending than climbing here, and again this could make those who are a little tentative use more energy than their rivals who are more comfortable on the downhill sections. There's two more ugly, uncategorised little ramps in this section before the two final climbs of the day.
They hit the Cat 1 Passo Giau with 159km gone and this will really put the pain on. This climb is 9.9km long with an average gradient of 9.4%. Only the very best climbers can thrive on those sort of slopes. The hardest ramps come in the first section, with a long ramp of 14% and although this does get easier towards the top it certainly won't feel like that to the riders, as even the easier sections are 8-9%. The descent is 12km long and then they're onto the final climb.
The Valparolo is not the hardest climb in the world. The gradient rarely goes about 7% until the very final metres where there are short steep ramps. This climb is 11,500m long and although the gradient is 5.7% average the previous questions that have been asked could make this the perfect platform for attacks. There's another descent as they head down into Corvara but even here there is another challenge to negotiate with the horrible slopes of the Muro Del Gatto that comes 4km out. The final few kms are slightly uphill.
Astana looked very strong yesterday. In fact, if anything they could have done with the stage being a little harder. I think we could see them try and make some serious time on Nibali's rivals here. Movistar didn't panic, and took the pink jersey with Amador but that might be papering over the cracks in the team. Amador was distanced on the final climb and had to chase back on the flat and there seems to be an issue between Valverde and Visconti. Jungels did brilliantly to limit the damage but it would be a surprise to see him avoid further time loss here. Kruijswijk, Chaves and Majka stayed with the big two fairly easily and all three are, to this stage anyway, genuine podium contenders. Jungels struggled on the final climb yesterday and I think he'll fuly crack tomorrow, probably a long way before the end. That is not a criticism, but he is still very young and he would not have expected to have remained a contender this far into the race. I expect to see Astana put the hammer down today to test Valverde and co. I think a big break will get up the road but whether it makes it home remains to be seen. I think we'll see Astana come to the front on the Passo Giau and destroy the peloton. Nibali put in two accelerations yesterday then sat up and waited for the bunch to come back. I think he'll put in attack towards the top of the Giau but rather than wait I think he'll sustain it and then attack the descent. If he does this riders who were on the edge like Zakarin and Amador are likely to go out the back door. It will be very interesting to see who will have the legs to go with him. I think we will be down to a very small amount of GC contenders come Saturday night, and the Shark of Messina will be dusting off the pink skinsuit.
Profile
The Queen stage of the 2016 Giro d'Italia and we're live on Eurosport from noon in the UK. Yesterday's first real venture into the mountains proper was instructive if not race-defining for most and will have acted as a softening up blow for today's stage and also Sunday's mountain time trial and by the morning of the rest day on Monday we should have a much better idea of which way this Grand Tour is going to swing. There's 210km to negotiate today, and most of it takes place in the Dolomites. There's 5400m of vertical climbing to be done today, and 6 categorised climbs. They head out from Alpaga and the road starts to head immediately upwards. They move upwards fairly slowly at first, after 85km they have gone from 400m to 1400m. Things have been fairly straightforward up to this point but there's then 4 climbs in the next 50km.
Pordoi = Cat 1, 9.2km at 6.9%
Sella = Cat 2, 5.5km at 7.9%
Gardena = Cat 3, 5.75km at 4.3%
Campolongo = Cat 2 6.0km at 5.8%
Each of these climbs is followed by a descent, some of which are challenging and technical. Indeed there is actually more km of descending than climbing here, and again this could make those who are a little tentative use more energy than their rivals who are more comfortable on the downhill sections. There's two more ugly, uncategorised little ramps in this section before the two final climbs of the day.
They hit the Cat 1 Passo Giau with 159km gone and this will really put the pain on. This climb is 9.9km long with an average gradient of 9.4%. Only the very best climbers can thrive on those sort of slopes. The hardest ramps come in the first section, with a long ramp of 14% and although this does get easier towards the top it certainly won't feel like that to the riders, as even the easier sections are 8-9%. The descent is 12km long and then they're onto the final climb.
The Valparolo is not the hardest climb in the world. The gradient rarely goes about 7% until the very final metres where there are short steep ramps. This climb is 11,500m long and although the gradient is 5.7% average the previous questions that have been asked could make this the perfect platform for attacks. There's another descent as they head down into Corvara but even here there is another challenge to negotiate with the horrible slopes of the Muro Del Gatto that comes 4km out. The final few kms are slightly uphill.
Astana looked very strong yesterday. In fact, if anything they could have done with the stage being a little harder. I think we could see them try and make some serious time on Nibali's rivals here. Movistar didn't panic, and took the pink jersey with Amador but that might be papering over the cracks in the team. Amador was distanced on the final climb and had to chase back on the flat and there seems to be an issue between Valverde and Visconti. Jungels did brilliantly to limit the damage but it would be a surprise to see him avoid further time loss here. Kruijswijk, Chaves and Majka stayed with the big two fairly easily and all three are, to this stage anyway, genuine podium contenders. Jungels struggled on the final climb yesterday and I think he'll fuly crack tomorrow, probably a long way before the end. That is not a criticism, but he is still very young and he would not have expected to have remained a contender this far into the race. I expect to see Astana put the hammer down today to test Valverde and co. I think a big break will get up the road but whether it makes it home remains to be seen. I think we'll see Astana come to the front on the Passo Giau and destroy the peloton. Nibali put in two accelerations yesterday then sat up and waited for the bunch to come back. I think he'll put in attack towards the top of the Giau but rather than wait I think he'll sustain it and then attack the descent. If he does this riders who were on the edge like Zakarin and Amador are likely to go out the back door. It will be very interesting to see who will have the legs to go with him. I think we will be down to a very small amount of GC contenders come Saturday night, and the Shark of Messina will be dusting off the pink skinsuit.
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Replies: 5
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Time to bet like men.
Nibali 1.5pts 6/1 Uran .2pts ew 50/1 Henao .1pts ew 66/1 |
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Reckon Jungels will be much bigger than odds on for white this evening as well
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The race finally came alive
Movistar disintegrated trying to defend pink Preidler did everything right until opening the sprint from 500m out  Brave efforts from Siutsou and Atapuma but they had enough rope and ultimately weren't quite good enough Plaza traded odds on before being swept aside 45 km from home ! Scarponi is super-strong yet again |
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Vamos Chavito! little Champion
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What did you guys think of Atapuma's cadence yesterday?
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