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MODENA > ASOLO Wednesday 18 May 2016 (227 km)
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At 227 km, this is a long old stage today. Anyone that's seen the old Tom n Jerry cartoon sketch where Jerry is on a carpet running away and Tom grabs the other end and pulls it, and as the carpet wrinkles up at the far end Jerry flies into the air? That's what this profile reminds me of. So, the Giro moves on without one of its favourites. Not good for the race but certainly good for me having backed Nibali. Having said that, the abandonment certainly meant that the GC guys eased off and who knows, if they hadn't then my yesterday's stage picks could well have caught the break. Today's a weird old stage alright, pan flat with some wrinkles at the end.
They start off in Modena in Emilia-Romagna, the home of balsamic vinegar and fast cars. Unless the wind blows here there isn't going to be a lot going on for the first 200km. In fact, other than a bit of street furniture as they pass through several towns along the Po plains the biggest threat to the riders today is going to be coming a cropper because someone loses concentration and touches wheels. Only 200km into this race does this start to get spicy - but it does! Fostella Mostaccin is a only Cat 4 climb but it's 2.9km at 7.8% with ramps up to 16%. Probably too hard for any of the sprinters. Less than 20km from the top here but this sole categorised climb is not the only trouble on the run-in.
Following the descent of the categorised climb the road goes constantly up and down. the final climb as they get into Asolo happens with 5km to go and is 1500km long at 6%. After a short flat there's 2km of descent at 5% average before a flat final km. Last time the Giro came to Asolo was in 2010 when Nibali won stage 13 solo.
With the flat profile, but steep late climb and up and down nature of the run-in, before a late ramp and a very flat final km, this could go to morning break, a sole attacker or a big bunch. This is the sort of stage a sprinter with an attitude problem like Cav at his peak or even Bouhanni could surprise everyone by winning but it's hard to envisage any of the remaining crop doing so and therefore the sprint teams won't be helping the chase and therefore it's tough to know who will chase this, Etixx? Movistar? Depends on the composition of the break. With the very flat nature of the 200km then the whole host of turns as well as the late climbs and descents and this finish well suits a late attack if the morning break is brought back. I'd be looking towards someone that can climb and can maintain a very high tempo solo. Could this be the perfect platform for King Kung? If it does come back together we can consider riders like Navardauskas, Trentin, Battaglin or Colbrelli but definitely consider those Italian teams likely to get into the morning break again.
Profile
At 227 km, this is a long old stage today. Anyone that's seen the old Tom n Jerry cartoon sketch where Jerry is on a carpet running away and Tom grabs the other end and pulls it, and as the carpet wrinkles up at the far end Jerry flies into the air? That's what this profile reminds me of. So, the Giro moves on without one of its favourites. Not good for the race but certainly good for me having backed Nibali. Having said that, the abandonment certainly meant that the GC guys eased off and who knows, if they hadn't then my yesterday's stage picks could well have caught the break. Today's a weird old stage alright, pan flat with some wrinkles at the end.
They start off in Modena in Emilia-Romagna, the home of balsamic vinegar and fast cars. Unless the wind blows here there isn't going to be a lot going on for the first 200km. In fact, other than a bit of street furniture as they pass through several towns along the Po plains the biggest threat to the riders today is going to be coming a cropper because someone loses concentration and touches wheels. Only 200km into this race does this start to get spicy - but it does! Fostella Mostaccin is a only Cat 4 climb but it's 2.9km at 7.8% with ramps up to 16%. Probably too hard for any of the sprinters. Less than 20km from the top here but this sole categorised climb is not the only trouble on the run-in.
Following the descent of the categorised climb the road goes constantly up and down. the final climb as they get into Asolo happens with 5km to go and is 1500km long at 6%. After a short flat there's 2km of descent at 5% average before a flat final km. Last time the Giro came to Asolo was in 2010 when Nibali won stage 13 solo.
With the flat profile, but steep late climb and up and down nature of the run-in, before a late ramp and a very flat final km, this could go to morning break, a sole attacker or a big bunch. This is the sort of stage a sprinter with an attitude problem like Cav at his peak or even Bouhanni could surprise everyone by winning but it's hard to envisage any of the remaining crop doing so and therefore the sprint teams won't be helping the chase and therefore it's tough to know who will chase this, Etixx? Movistar? Depends on the composition of the break. With the very flat nature of the 200km then the whole host of turns as well as the late climbs and descents and this finish well suits a late attack if the morning break is brought back. I'd be looking towards someone that can climb and can maintain a very high tempo solo. Could this be the perfect platform for King Kung? If it does come back together we can consider riders like Navardauskas, Trentin, Battaglin or Colbrelli but definitely consider those Italian teams likely to get into the morning break again.
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SPOILSPORTS = 4 again
Hedging my bets between late attacks and morning break Hansen 100/1, Kolobnev 100/1, Kung 50/1 & McCarthy 50/1 |
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Not sure what Lampre are playing at today they just chased the early break down for no reason. Suggests they are looking to launch Ulissi at the end? Unless they've cooked themselves we should have it all back together at the end, so I've discounted the break.
I'm tempted by Demare here, I think he can get over the climb and hope he has something left at the end. Possibly too hard for him? We'll see. Good luck all. |
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Well we'll never find out if Demare is good enough.
Massive crash and he's in the middle of it. |
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Ulissi with another Giro double. Clinical
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He rarely loses out in those situations
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Didn't think the end was hard enough for Ulissi to win, should have really thought about him skipping away on that last rise. He's having a great race.
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Mental stage that!
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