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FOLIGNO > AREZZO Saturday 14 May 2016 (186 km)
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A cracking looking 186km long weekend stage in store at the Giro as the race moves through Umbria in the heart of Italy. Unfortunately for the sprinters yesterday was their last fun for a while. Today they have little chance of being their at the end, and then we have the time trial before the rest day. This area is full of beautiful hilltop towns with picturesque squares and amazing churches. Expect plenty of helicopter shots of them. Some are very well known like Assisi, other less so, like Todi and Orvieto. It was there, in Orvieto 15 years ago, where my missus told her only joke in our entire relationship to date when coming out of the beautiful church we noticed someone has written "Jalfreizi" on the wall and she said it was someone trying to curry favour with God. Anyway, this has been one of the stages I have been looking forward to since the route was announced - should be a belter.
They start in Friday's finish town of Foligno and head towards nearby Assisi. The riders will be praying to St Francis for some assistance today as they pass through. For the next nearly 100km the roads are almost totally pan flat as they roll through the Tiber Valley. They nip past Perugia, the capital of Umbria and there's an intermediate sprint at Umbertide, which sounds more like a Lake District town than one you'd find in the Giro. They pass through Monterchi before the terrain starts to change as they move away from the flat valley roads. There is a short, uncategorised lump at Anghiari that features some steep ramps and then they tackle the Cat 3 Scheggia. This climb shouldn't cause any problems though, and after the descent there is a long flat section. The only obstacles here are a few pinch points and road furniture as they head towards the finish town of Arezzo and this is where things start to get interesting.
They pass the finish line at Arezzo for the first time at 155km, which will give the riders a chance to see for themselves whether they can win the stage today on these closing ramps. The problem they have is that there's another 30km to go, and it includes the Cat 2 Alpe di Poti.
This is the toughest climb of the race so far. It has some really steep sections and most of the climb is on dirt roads. There is the potential for time losses here. The climb is 10.25km all in, although the first km or so is no more than false flat. After 2km the road gets much steeper. The next 3km are all around the 10% mark, including a section of 14% for nearly 500m. Not only that, but it is on this steep section that the tarmac ends and they hit dirt roads. There is 6.4km of dirt road on this climb, taking them all the way to the top. There is a small plateau of about 1km in the middle of this climb before another 3km that average just under 7%. Again there is an easier section just before the summit and then they're onto the descent. Luckily for the riders they are immediately back onto tarmac but even so this is a fast and tricky descent. The road flattens out with 6km to go as they charge back to Arezzo.
They take a big right at a roundabout as they come into Arezzo then it's straight for 2km before they go under the 2km banner and onto the section they've already seen. There's two right hand bends and then they're under the kite. At this stage the road goes steeply uphill, hitting gradients of 11%. It flattens out before getting a little steeper again. The last 500m are at about 5%.
The last time the Giro finished in Arezzo in 2003 the stage was won by Mario Cipollini. This was a monumental win for Cipo, not only did he take victory in the rainbow jersey but this win was his 41st in the Giro, equalling the previous record set by the great Alfredo Binda. It's very unlikely that we'll see the stage win taken today by a sprinter. Indeed, working out who wins this is very puzzling. You'd think the breakaway has an excellent chance today. The GC guys will surely have their eyes on tomorrow's 40km long time trial through the vineyards, and with the sprinters knowing it isn't a day for them the rope could snap today. There’s plenty of viable contenders if the break was to take this but for the sake of choosing someone how about Alessandro De Marchi.
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A cracking looking 186km long weekend stage in store at the Giro as the race moves through Umbria in the heart of Italy. Unfortunately for the sprinters yesterday was their last fun for a while. Today they have little chance of being their at the end, and then we have the time trial before the rest day. This area is full of beautiful hilltop towns with picturesque squares and amazing churches. Expect plenty of helicopter shots of them. Some are very well known like Assisi, other less so, like Todi and Orvieto. It was there, in Orvieto 15 years ago, where my missus told her only joke in our entire relationship to date when coming out of the beautiful church we noticed someone has written "Jalfreizi" on the wall and she said it was someone trying to curry favour with God. Anyway, this has been one of the stages I have been looking forward to since the route was announced - should be a belter.
They start in Friday's finish town of Foligno and head towards nearby Assisi. The riders will be praying to St Francis for some assistance today as they pass through. For the next nearly 100km the roads are almost totally pan flat as they roll through the Tiber Valley. They nip past Perugia, the capital of Umbria and there's an intermediate sprint at Umbertide, which sounds more like a Lake District town than one you'd find in the Giro. They pass through Monterchi before the terrain starts to change as they move away from the flat valley roads. There is a short, uncategorised lump at Anghiari that features some steep ramps and then they tackle the Cat 3 Scheggia. This climb shouldn't cause any problems though, and after the descent there is a long flat section. The only obstacles here are a few pinch points and road furniture as they head towards the finish town of Arezzo and this is where things start to get interesting.
They pass the finish line at Arezzo for the first time at 155km, which will give the riders a chance to see for themselves whether they can win the stage today on these closing ramps. The problem they have is that there's another 30km to go, and it includes the Cat 2 Alpe di Poti.
This is the toughest climb of the race so far. It has some really steep sections and most of the climb is on dirt roads. There is the potential for time losses here. The climb is 10.25km all in, although the first km or so is no more than false flat. After 2km the road gets much steeper. The next 3km are all around the 10% mark, including a section of 14% for nearly 500m. Not only that, but it is on this steep section that the tarmac ends and they hit dirt roads. There is 6.4km of dirt road on this climb, taking them all the way to the top. There is a small plateau of about 1km in the middle of this climb before another 3km that average just under 7%. Again there is an easier section just before the summit and then they're onto the descent. Luckily for the riders they are immediately back onto tarmac but even so this is a fast and tricky descent. The road flattens out with 6km to go as they charge back to Arezzo.
They take a big right at a roundabout as they come into Arezzo then it's straight for 2km before they go under the 2km banner and onto the section they've already seen. There's two right hand bends and then they're under the kite. At this stage the road goes steeply uphill, hitting gradients of 11%. It flattens out before getting a little steeper again. The last 500m are at about 5%.
The last time the Giro finished in Arezzo in 2003 the stage was won by Mario Cipollini. This was a monumental win for Cipo, not only did he take victory in the rainbow jersey but this win was his 41st in the Giro, equalling the previous record set by the great Alfredo Binda. It's very unlikely that we'll see the stage win taken today by a sprinter. Indeed, working out who wins this is very puzzling. You'd think the breakaway has an excellent chance today. The GC guys will surely have their eyes on tomorrow's 40km long time trial through the vineyards, and with the sprinters knowing it isn't a day for them the rope could snap today. There’s plenty of viable contenders if the break was to take this but for the sake of choosing someone how about Alessandro De Marchi.
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If the breakaway does get rope this could turn into two races, with the GC contenders having their own battles in behind. You'd think that this route will suit Tom Dumoulin again. He's raced Strade Bianche, and he could make time on the descent, flat run-in or the final steep ramps.
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Lovely write-up, MC.
Agree that it's not one for the sprinters, although wouldn't mind some doubt in the market. Agree on the possibility for a "double feature" with a race for stage honours and one for the GC battle. Upon closer inspection, it looks like a power descent for the majority of the Alpe di Poti, however I thought this at the start of the race and I still hold the same belief, that is for Nibali to attack on the downhill on a stage like this. Especially as it might put-to-rest the discussion over AST's tactical error on stage 6 by having him attack just as the road was flattening out, which I do concede in retrospect was a bit of that, an error. It would fit with his style of racing, to give himself another test when not many would be expecting it, and knowing that if he fails he actually wins in a way, by testing his condition again and knowing that there'll be other opportunities. This race is building nicely. |
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* Davide Formolo 23yo ITA from CPT who won a similar albeit easier stage here when on GT debut. He hasn't won this year and in fact doesn't have any podium results to show for his season, however his 7th-place finish up to La Molina on stage 3 of Catalunya showed his climbing ability when he was sandwiched between Quintana on one side and Zakarin and Froome on the other. Has displayed a consistent approach to his racing here thus far, and will have marked this stage for himself from the start. Has been pushed out to 100/1 with the Books after opening at 80/1. It all depends on his sensations and if he has an attack in him today, which admittedly requires some trust, but I think even 40/1 would represent good value. E/W. Interesting proposition. Worthy of consideration.
* Tim Wellens Stamped his authority and top-class quality on this race to win stage 6 after jumping into a tiring breakaway from 1min away with teammate Ligthart, with 60kms and a mammoth-long albeit suitable climb still remaining to negotiate. Would follow an LTS pattern of four wins in-a-row with another win to his name. Will be riding with confidence, looks suited, and is made of the right stuff. Opened 16/1 & best 18/1 with 365, however he is being matched on the exchange at 24/1, which is closer to his value (for preferred 4th places). E/W. Exciting proposition. Consider closely. Good luck to all, SP |
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It's a day for micro-staking, sitting back and watching today. Tried to back De Marchi & Hansen with Joke Orals but they would only let me have £0.01 ew.
Spoilsports are 5 places today and I've gone 0.1pts ew on the following Jay McCarthy 66/1 Joe Dombrowski 125/1 Nicola Boem 150/1 Philip Deignan 200/1 Grega Bole 200/1 |
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I expect Zakarin to go well again today, he could possibly be the one to shorten in the GC if anyone is to this afternoon
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13-rider breakaway are combining fairly well, but with the greed of EQS in keeping Brambilla in the break the peloton are still keeping them in check. The advantage is moving to the break, slightly, and there are about seven potential winners including MC's early De Marchi suggestion. If EQS were to call Brambilla out than I think the peloton would let the break go entirely. As it is, it's still too close to call. No Wellens and no Formolo, but Formolo's teammate Moser is in the break for CPT and he is a proven performer, and I actually had a close look at him beside Formolo at ante-post, but just hasn't had the form, although he was in a break earlier in the week.
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5mins 50kms, looking fair for the break, but still too close to call.
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Surprised LAM are not helping the five riders of TGA, you'd think they'd want another crack for Ulissi, which means 12 (in the break excluding Ardnt as he is from TGA) versus 4 (of TGA) is the stronger.
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I think I should start a thread on here titled: EQS are the dumbest team with the dumbest DS in the WT peloton. Time and again they screw it up, the selfish bloody bastard$.
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You'd think the breakaway require 3mins by the start of the final climb, still too close to call. Looking at Moser, De Marchi, Brambilla, and a saver on Trentin, who may lose out on the climb but is looking very fast and strong.
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Approaching the final climb, if a stronger selection is made than expect the break to hold on, but it's still bloody close.
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Here we go...
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Very disappointing performance from the new SKY wonder boy , following on from more of the same on Thursday.
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Well, maybe EQS are not that dumb, they were gambling there and must have known Brambilla was on good sensations...
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EQS DS -- the con-man of the peloton.
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