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SULMONA > FOLIGNO Friday 13 May 2016 (211 km)
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Another sprint stage at first glance but as we saw on Wednesday this is the Giro and nothing can be taken for granted. There's 211km to negotiate today, and they start with a Cat 2 climb almost immediately on leaving the town of Sulmona. It's a tough old climb this, and it is likely to be taken fairly quickly as the break tries to establish itself. This is 9km at around 6km with some tougher sections. They crest this climb with 20km gone and the next 60km are pretty tough, with a number of uncategorised lumps. With just over 50km to go there is a Cat 4 climb, the Valico Della Somma. This is 7km long, mostly at about 5-6%. This could conceivably cause problems for the sprinters if it is taken very quickly. It shouldn't be though, there's still 40km to go here and the finale is very flat. Downhill then flat as we run in to Foligno.
Last kms
Finish
The last time we had a finish in Foligno, Nacer Bouhanni won two years ago.
The climb at the start will perhaps encourage a decent sized break today. There's enough teams with a potential stake in bringing the break back to suggest this should end in a bunch sprint. It's an uncomplicated run-in with three sharp turns around the kite. The final 900m are only punctuated by an easy right hand bend and the straight is on a 7m wide asphalt road so this should be an enjoyable bunch sprint. I'll take Marcel Kittel. 9/4 is a decent price. The turns before the finish don't suit but he should at least be on the premises this time and if as expected Etixx get some help from Lotto Soudal, FDJ and Giant in bringing the break back then I'd expect him to win this.
Profile
Another sprint stage at first glance but as we saw on Wednesday this is the Giro and nothing can be taken for granted. There's 211km to negotiate today, and they start with a Cat 2 climb almost immediately on leaving the town of Sulmona. It's a tough old climb this, and it is likely to be taken fairly quickly as the break tries to establish itself. This is 9km at around 6km with some tougher sections. They crest this climb with 20km gone and the next 60km are pretty tough, with a number of uncategorised lumps. With just over 50km to go there is a Cat 4 climb, the Valico Della Somma. This is 7km long, mostly at about 5-6%. This could conceivably cause problems for the sprinters if it is taken very quickly. It shouldn't be though, there's still 40km to go here and the finale is very flat. Downhill then flat as we run in to Foligno.
Last kms
Finish
The last time we had a finish in Foligno, Nacer Bouhanni won two years ago.
The climb at the start will perhaps encourage a decent sized break today. There's enough teams with a potential stake in bringing the break back to suggest this should end in a bunch sprint. It's an uncomplicated run-in with three sharp turns around the kite. The final 900m are only punctuated by an easy right hand bend and the straight is on a 7m wide asphalt road so this should be an enjoyable bunch sprint. I'll take Marcel Kittel. 9/4 is a decent price. The turns before the finish don't suit but he should at least be on the premises this time and if as expected Etixx get some help from Lotto Soudal, FDJ and Giant in bringing the break back then I'd expect him to win this.
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Replies: 16
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Weather looks iffy. Technical finish. Even if there is a bunch sprint it could be a bit of a lottery. In fact it could be ideal for someone to attack in the last few kms and take a few risks on the corners. Anyway laying Kittel, Greipel & Nizzolo @ even money combined
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Big breakaway, I think. Maybe up to 16 riders as that first cat.2 within the first 20kms is an ideal staging point. It'll be important that the composition is right though, and indeed if it is non-threatening to the GC contenders than it wouldn't be a surprise to see that the peloton just switches off and allows them the stage, after yesterday's tough stage and the length of this stage posing a challenge at over 200kms. Don't see a bunch sprint, but I wouldn't be laying the Gorilla. Nothing for me at ante-post, will assess the make-up of the break and go from there.
Good luck to all, SP |
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Added small bet on Modolo each way, 12/1. Liked the way his two man train dived bombed the finish on stage 5, shame he was badly inconvenienced by Taramaae's crash. Think Ferrari can put him in a good place for these late turns.
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Looking more likely it will stay dry now and business as usual for the sprinters
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Just got in. Apparently there was a 55-rider split in the peloton early, but a small breakaway of which the only one remaining is out King Kung combatant. He is riding hard, and so is the peloton, and with no rain around it's going to be a bunch sprint. Can't see an attack in the finale at these speeds. Just wondering how Kittel's legs are after a stage like today. He is a bit short at odds-on with such a question mark, so am going with the Gorilla for interest, who really impressed the other day.
Good luck to all, SP |
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FFS Kittel mechanical 5km out
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he'd just gone odds on to win
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The Gorilla!
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Grrr. Place money from Modolo but Kittel would have nailed that, Trentin was 4th...it ended up being a fairly straightforward sprint in the end after a messy run-in. Bookies have got away with one there gicing 9/4 Kittel.
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*6th
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...I mean he was checked about three times, what a brilliant ride to win that, I can't believe that ride!
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I agree Kittel would have liked that, pity for you MC, but that is a big confidence boost for Greipel after his impressive stage 5 win, and it will be interesting to see them go head-to-head now, two wins apiece. I mean he came back from about 9th-place to win that, so I suspect it might actually have been a close go between them.
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Yes fantastic sprint by the Gorilla. 3 wins on the trot for Lotto Soudal as well. Greipel is a sprinting machine, so powerful!
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Astonishing he was 2/1 to win any stage
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Would you still have Kittel ahead, though?
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Yes I think so. If we have Nizzolo and Modolo as markers then we've seen Kittel finish further ahead of those two. Tough to say though. Hope we head a couple of head to heads next week before Marcel goes home.
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