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PONTE > ROCCARASO (AREMOGNA) 12 May 2016 (157 km)
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MOUNTAINS! Well this will be the first serious shake up of the GC. There are 2 x Cat 2 climbs and whilst they aren't the steepest climbs in the world they are both long and as this is a short stage we should see a good pace throughout. No-one can win the Giro on this stage but they certainly can lose it. Again, they race North, leaving Ponte and for the first few kilometres the roads are fairly flat. The first sign of what's to come is some gradual incline as they approach the first climb of the day.
The Bocca Della Selva is the most serious test of the Giro so far. It is 18km long with 1,000m of vertical gain. It is almost two climbs in one with a couple of descents and an easier section in the middle. The first part of the climb is just over 6km at an average of 6.6%. The early slopes are fairly gradual so that average does mask some steeper sections, indeed kilometres 3.0-5.0 are mainly around the 8% mark but with the steeper sections approaching 10%. At PetraRoja there is a short descent before the climbing starts again. This time however, the gradients are fairly gradual, around 4.0-5.0 for the most part before another slightly longer descent leading on to the final part of the climb. These last 6km or so average over 7% and should really hurt. There's a fast and long descent and then a large amount of rolling terrain before the final climb.
The final Cat 2 climb, the Roccaraso is actually preceded by an uncategorised climb up to Castel di Sangro. This climb is 7km long and should not be underestimated as it will drain the legs further. The Roccaraso is 19km long and features 775km of climbing. Like the first climb this one is a mix of plateaus and steeper sections. This makes it difficult to get into a rhythm but it does mean there are sections where riders can recover. The steepest sections on this climb are in the first section, with over 5 kilometres at 7.5% after 2km. This sections contains ramps up to 12%. After this there is about 5km that is virtually flat. This will enable dropped riders to get back on and anyone that is on the limit to catch their breath.
The gradient ramps back up to 7.5% for 3km or so before a section of similar length that is much easier, around 3.5%. The two kilometres before the flag are almost completely flat, but then it starts to go up again. The final 500km or so are very steep, around 8.5% and there is a right hand bend to the line.
The last time the Giro came to Roccaraso was in 1987 when Moreno Argentin took the honours. This is the first big climbing test and the big favourites will want to test the strength of their opponents. It's possible this could be quite a big group that forms and it will be the final km only that the race is decided. Alejandro Valverde is a worth favourite for this but I'm going to take a chance on Jakub Fuglsang. He's looked lively and 66/1 4 places is a decent price. I also think Tom Dumoulin could thrive on a stage like this.
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MOUNTAINS! Well this will be the first serious shake up of the GC. There are 2 x Cat 2 climbs and whilst they aren't the steepest climbs in the world they are both long and as this is a short stage we should see a good pace throughout. No-one can win the Giro on this stage but they certainly can lose it. Again, they race North, leaving Ponte and for the first few kilometres the roads are fairly flat. The first sign of what's to come is some gradual incline as they approach the first climb of the day.
The Bocca Della Selva is the most serious test of the Giro so far. It is 18km long with 1,000m of vertical gain. It is almost two climbs in one with a couple of descents and an easier section in the middle. The first part of the climb is just over 6km at an average of 6.6%. The early slopes are fairly gradual so that average does mask some steeper sections, indeed kilometres 3.0-5.0 are mainly around the 8% mark but with the steeper sections approaching 10%. At PetraRoja there is a short descent before the climbing starts again. This time however, the gradients are fairly gradual, around 4.0-5.0 for the most part before another slightly longer descent leading on to the final part of the climb. These last 6km or so average over 7% and should really hurt. There's a fast and long descent and then a large amount of rolling terrain before the final climb.
The final Cat 2 climb, the Roccaraso is actually preceded by an uncategorised climb up to Castel di Sangro. This climb is 7km long and should not be underestimated as it will drain the legs further. The Roccaraso is 19km long and features 775km of climbing. Like the first climb this one is a mix of plateaus and steeper sections. This makes it difficult to get into a rhythm but it does mean there are sections where riders can recover. The steepest sections on this climb are in the first section, with over 5 kilometres at 7.5% after 2km. This sections contains ramps up to 12%. After this there is about 5km that is virtually flat. This will enable dropped riders to get back on and anyone that is on the limit to catch their breath.
The gradient ramps back up to 7.5% for 3km or so before a section of similar length that is much easier, around 3.5%. The two kilometres before the flag are almost completely flat, but then it starts to go up again. The final 500km or so are very steep, around 8.5% and there is a right hand bend to the line.
The last time the Giro came to Roccaraso was in 1987 when Moreno Argentin took the honours. This is the first big climbing test and the big favourites will want to test the strength of their opponents. It's possible this could be quite a big group that forms and it will be the final km only that the race is decided. Alejandro Valverde is a worth favourite for this but I'm going to take a chance on Jakub Fuglsang. He's looked lively and 66/1 4 places is a decent price. I also think Tom Dumoulin could thrive on a stage like this.
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I've backed Fuglsang 66/1 and Roche 40/1 both 4 places with Spoilsports. I've also taken Kruijswijk 40/1 but only 3 places.
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Chaotic-looking stage with the long-range breakaway having a fair chance of staying away on account of TGA wanting a slow race for Dumoulin. However, I fail to see anyone with enough quality to withstand a late attack from the GC group, and on that basis I think the riders to contest stage honours are likely to come from amongst the GC contenders. Riders of some note like Fuglsang may find themselves in a breakaway when on duty to neutralise attacks, but with the likely chaotic nature to this stage I am happy to sit back and assess the situation as it develops. 66/1 4 places is good value, though.
SKY may do their mountain train thing once they reach the final climb, however I am not convinced that that is their best approach with Landa, and it may in fact backfire on them, so probably they just won't do anything but buy time with a sit for him. I don't think anyone will do much except for perhaps AST, who as we know have a very strong squad assembled here, and may want to test the GC contenders with a hard pace up the final climb in order to provide Nibali an early assessment of his own condition in comparison to that of his opponents. * Ilnur Zakarin Was on GT debut here last year when already 25yo, jagging the 153km stage 11 into the Imola circuit in impressive fashion. Has confirmed that he is the genuine article in the mountains when earlier this season he won stage 6 in Paris-Nice up the 15.3km @ 5.7% final climb to La Madone d'Utelle against top-class company. Whilst he ultimately failed to defend his Romandie win from last year, finishing in 4th-place, he did show his excellent climbing qualities on stage 2 into Morgins where he crossed first over the line, but was later relagated to 2nd when the protest from Quintana was upheld by the Commissaire. Looks to be working his way into this race with a consistent approach, enjoying the difficult surging speed of the peloton, particularly in yesterday's stage where hung tough over the big stones. KAT like to gamble and are not as rigoristic as other teams with plans and strategies, and since the false flat sections on the final climb suit his characteristics, and given the short distance of the stage, a late attack from the GC group at that point if having good sensations is likely. 12/1 (365) and has been as high as 13/1. E/W. Exciting proposition. Watch closely. Good luck to all, SP |
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It could be a pretty big group when they get to the finale with the flat sections in the run-in and unlike you I don't see this being contested by GC contenders. The problem is that no-one wants to take Valverde to the line and let him have the bonus seconds, and any GC attacks will be swiftly shut down IMO. This means we could see a situation where the super-domestiques are allowed some rope, or people that aren't considered a major threat for the overall title. This is why I settled on riders like Roche and Fuglsang.
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How does it come you have an early hill in the profile that doesn't exist on Cyclingnews profile and wasn't taken in reality?
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I think that because MC has to get the profiles approved he does it early and that was the profile to the stage when the parcours was announced before then being cut, basically I think it's just the original stage, now an old out-of-date one?
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LAM come to the front but don't commit and TGA take over as the breakaway gap shoots up.
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Tim Wellens, no value now, but a reminder that he looks to have taken another step up in class when he won the Nice stage in Paris-Nice earlier this season in top class company. Was looking very consistent and combatative in the Ardennes, perhaps only getting his timing wrong. A top-10 in AGR being his best result. Interesting that he is contributing in the breakaway, might sour his legs a little, but clearly the best rider in the breakaway. However, we haven't seen "bury-mode" from him as yet. Climb suits him, but he will need all of this 6mins. Gap still going up. Will he go for it?
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Tempo from the peloton, this is with the break, I think.
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7+mins, yes, it's with the break.
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Lovely, we are going to get a "double feature" -- Wellens taking another major step in his career to potentially claim his first GT stage win, and a GC assessment.
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Peloton have got a min back there, but I think 7mins with 20kms to-go should be enough for the quality of Wellens and potential "bury-mode" display.
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Looks like it's going to be bang on that...
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20kms to-go, gap at 6:44...
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...if Wellens can show "bury-mode" it is within reach for him, the climb really suits his characteristics.
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On the final climb 6:43 16.6kms...
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Ligthart popped!
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Wellens kicks early, wouldn't advised that, but he looks strong still.
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"Bury-mode" from Wellens, nice gap, let's see if the kid has got it.
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MC with Fuglsang @ 66/1 might be wishing for 5 places.
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Nibali fell for his own attack, never underrate Tom!
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2nd and 3rd from our picks there SP, not bad at 66/1 and 16/1. A very interesting stage that one.
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re the profile - I took the profile for this stage of the official site about 10 days ago, along with 19 and 20 as I was going to use them in the GC thread. I didn't in the end but as I'd already had the stage 6 profile I didn't go back and download it like I have been doing each day. They've obviously changed the route since 10 days ago. Sorry about that, should have checked.
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Thrilling stuff!
Firstly, Wellens is top-class now, sealed it with that win, no doubt about it, this kid is superb at the top level! 60kms to-go he launched that attack with teammate Ligthart, just when the breakaway riders were drifting back and out from the peloton, and covered the 1min before settling down and combining with them. Showed "bury-mode" a long way out on the final climb when after he went over the top of Didier he proceeded to hang tough all the way. Top ride. All class! Secondly, very happy for MC to claim a place with Fuglsang in 2nd, much better place odds than the pittance Zakarin returned with a fighting effort for 3rd.  Thirdly, Nibali was always going to test his condition on this stage, that's the mark of a Triple-Crown GT Champion to attack and draw out the opposition and measure his own condition against them. He looked a little fatigued after the line but without his attack we would only have half the picture, I wouldn't agree he fell for anything; he showed himself to himself and showed his opponents to us, of which Dumoulin was the best over a finish which suited him the best, apart from Zakarin, that is. Lastly, if that is a taste of things to come than I am suddenly much more optimistic of the entertainment we are likely to receive as this race revs up. Cheers, SP P.S. BB -- I've invited you to share your thoughts about Dumoulin after providing an extensive form of advancement by raising the important questions about him, and you ignore that to come on here and infer that I have underrated Dumoulin, I haven't, I'm just not confident he can win and the reason why I raised the topic. So, it's a bit rich from you to throw your one-line worth when you haven't even involved yourself in the discussion. Won't be discussing it here, in any case. |
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SP - I gave my opinion that Dumoulin is a serious candidate for the podium in the other thread. The verdict not to underrate him war directed to his opponents, namely Nibali, who couldn't live with Tom's counterattack. I agree that this mountain suited him much, but to make him crack it will need long range attacks over more than 1 mountain. Compareed to last year's Vuelta he seems to have a stronger team though, even if it's not as strong as AST or MOV.
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Mate I'm not interested in getting into a pissing contest -- all you stated on the GC table was he should be included because he might be a chance for the podium, and I agreed, however if you read and go through MC's GC thread, you would see that I suggested a project for -- "the potential for 8/1, 9/1 price matches. Build it and they will come, right? Interested in expanding this discussion, what do you guys think?" Dumoulin was 13/1 on the exchange with liquidity although he was better than that in dribs and drabs when I broached that project about Dumoulin, thinking we could all prosper from it. He is presently being matched at 5/1.
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For what it's worth this is what I said in my conclusion on he GC fred "Lastly I can see Dumoulin trading a lot shorter than his current 28/1 at some point so he might not be a bad position to take"
Shame I never followed my own thoughts in cold hard... |