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PRAIA A MARE > BENEVENTO - Wednesday 11 May 2016 (233 km)
The first thing that stands out about this stage is the length. 233km is getting on towards monument length. The second thing is that even though this is described in the roadbook as a flat stage, and there is only one categorised climb, a Cat 3 that comes after only 35km, there is actually about 1,000m of climbing to do on the day so with both the length of the stage and the amount of small climbs this will be a tough day to control. Etixx might need some help from Giant.
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So they start at Praia a Mare, yesterday's beautiful beach town on the Tyrrhenian Sea. Throughout this long day in the saddle they are heading almost exactly North. The first 35km are pretty much all false flat, so the break should get away fairly early on in proceedings and then things should settle down in the peloton. The long false flat section finishes with the Cat 3 climb to Fortino. After this there is a short descent before a long flat section as the riders head along the plateau. There is a long descent when they get to the town of Polla, and for the next 80-90km or so there is hardly a flat section of road. There are no categorised climbs in this section but perhaps or two of them probably should be! The good news for those with a vested interest in a bunch sprint, the serious climbing is done and dusted with still 50km to go and it's pretty much all downhill to the historic finish town of Benevento from this point on.
Finish
Last kms
Benevento is a beautiful and culturally significant ancient Roman city. Attractions here are the Arch of Trajan, the church of Santa Sofia, the Cathedral, the castle and the Roman theatre. As they get to Benevento with 7km to go they take a big right, go under the kite and over the finish line before doing an anticlockwise loop through the city to have a look at some of those sights, before heading back towards the line again. After the kite the road has a slight uphill gradient that gets steeper towards the line. From 1000m-500m it is only 2% or so. For the last 500m it gets a bit steeper and is 4% at the line.
The last time the Giro came to Benevento was in 2009 and Michele Scarponi won stage 19. There's a couple of ways this can pan out today. The first is that Etixx and the other sprint teams will have enough vested interest in a bunch finish, they'll drop the hammer, we'll see a catch in the last 20-30km and Kittel wins another stage. The second is that the other sprint teams will refuse to help bring Kittel to the line knowing full well they can't beat him. Patrick Lefevere hit out at the other sprint teams perceived refusal to help after stage 3 and although the catch was late on it seemed to me like Etixx easily had enough men left to hold off the other challengers. The problem for Etixx here is Kittel was just as dominant in stage 3 as stage 2, so Lefevere can throw his toys out of the pram as much as he likes but there isn't much incentive for the other teams to work when they know Kittel cannot be stopped. At some stage, they will just refuse to work at all and say to Etixx that if they want the win, they do it themselves. One team can only do so much though. Also, this is tough terrain for one team to control the race with the length of the stage and the lumpy middle. This creates the sort of scenario where the rope can snap and the break can win but it will need to be riders who are already well down on GC or they won't be allowed the sort of time gap that they'll need to take this stage because Giant will also want to ride to protect Dumoulin's pink jersey.
I think the breakaway can make it all the way today. I think the play is probably to lay Kittel, at worst you should be able to trade it at a bigger price at some point. There are several contenders who have lost time already and may be worth considering if the price is right like Stefan Denifl of IAM, Alessandro De Marchi of BMC, Blel Kadri of Ag2r and Bole or Grosu of Nippo Vini Fantini who were punished by their DS for missing the break on Tuesday. I had earmarked Nicola Boem for this stage. The Bardiani rider is already over 8 mins down on GC, he was very active in the breakaways in the Tour of Croatia and he won Stage 10 of the 2015 Giro when the small morning breakaway group stayed away from the sprinters' teams and his fast finish meant he was able to pick up the biggest win of his career but my enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat by him being in the early break on Tuesday.
The first thing that stands out about this stage is the length. 233km is getting on towards monument length. The second thing is that even though this is described in the roadbook as a flat stage, and there is only one categorised climb, a Cat 3 that comes after only 35km, there is actually about 1,000m of climbing to do on the day so with both the length of the stage and the amount of small climbs this will be a tough day to control. Etixx might need some help from Giant.
Map
Profile
So they start at Praia a Mare, yesterday's beautiful beach town on the Tyrrhenian Sea. Throughout this long day in the saddle they are heading almost exactly North. The first 35km are pretty much all false flat, so the break should get away fairly early on in proceedings and then things should settle down in the peloton. The long false flat section finishes with the Cat 3 climb to Fortino. After this there is a short descent before a long flat section as the riders head along the plateau. There is a long descent when they get to the town of Polla, and for the next 80-90km or so there is hardly a flat section of road. There are no categorised climbs in this section but perhaps or two of them probably should be! The good news for those with a vested interest in a bunch sprint, the serious climbing is done and dusted with still 50km to go and it's pretty much all downhill to the historic finish town of Benevento from this point on.
Finish
Last kms
Benevento is a beautiful and culturally significant ancient Roman city. Attractions here are the Arch of Trajan, the church of Santa Sofia, the Cathedral, the castle and the Roman theatre. As they get to Benevento with 7km to go they take a big right, go under the kite and over the finish line before doing an anticlockwise loop through the city to have a look at some of those sights, before heading back towards the line again. After the kite the road has a slight uphill gradient that gets steeper towards the line. From 1000m-500m it is only 2% or so. For the last 500m it gets a bit steeper and is 4% at the line.
The last time the Giro came to Benevento was in 2009 and Michele Scarponi won stage 19. There's a couple of ways this can pan out today. The first is that Etixx and the other sprint teams will have enough vested interest in a bunch finish, they'll drop the hammer, we'll see a catch in the last 20-30km and Kittel wins another stage. The second is that the other sprint teams will refuse to help bring Kittel to the line knowing full well they can't beat him. Patrick Lefevere hit out at the other sprint teams perceived refusal to help after stage 3 and although the catch was late on it seemed to me like Etixx easily had enough men left to hold off the other challengers. The problem for Etixx here is Kittel was just as dominant in stage 3 as stage 2, so Lefevere can throw his toys out of the pram as much as he likes but there isn't much incentive for the other teams to work when they know Kittel cannot be stopped. At some stage, they will just refuse to work at all and say to Etixx that if they want the win, they do it themselves. One team can only do so much though. Also, this is tough terrain for one team to control the race with the length of the stage and the lumpy middle. This creates the sort of scenario where the rope can snap and the break can win but it will need to be riders who are already well down on GC or they won't be allowed the sort of time gap that they'll need to take this stage because Giant will also want to ride to protect Dumoulin's pink jersey.
I think the breakaway can make it all the way today. I think the play is probably to lay Kittel, at worst you should be able to trade it at a bigger price at some point. There are several contenders who have lost time already and may be worth considering if the price is right like Stefan Denifl of IAM, Alessandro De Marchi of BMC, Blel Kadri of Ag2r and Bole or Grosu of Nippo Vini Fantini who were punished by their DS for missing the break on Tuesday. I had earmarked Nicola Boem for this stage. The Bardiani rider is already over 8 mins down on GC, he was very active in the breakaways in the Tour of Croatia and he won Stage 10 of the 2015 Giro when the small morning breakaway group stayed away from the sprinters' teams and his fast finish meant he was able to pick up the biggest win of his career but my enthusiasm has been tempered somewhat by him being in the early break on Tuesday.
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Just a couple of things before I power-down, here. Scarponi won stage 18, not 19, of the 2009 race. Not really an issue, but it was a short distance at 182kms and came toward the conclusion of the GT, and in fact it was a transitional stage, so a massive 25-man breakaway was permitted to form, staying out in the lead for 100+kms, before Scarponi attacked and nabbed his second stage win of that edition after taking stage 6, earlier.
Yes MC, I agree, they probably should be categorised. I think that final climb today showed us that in ITA they are still on their own climb category scale and I'll want to put more work in, but I think the climb up to Svinc. di Materdomini at 138kms into the race, and then the climb some 20kms later of the Svinc. di Montella represent -- what could be -- cat.3 climbs under a normal or non-ITA category climbing scale. Then there's also the cumulative climbing on top as you say 1000m of ascents. If the right breakaway group forms, with no dangerous riders present, I wouldn't be surprised if the peloton lets them have it. Having said that, 50kms is a proper distance for a committed peloton on a downhill stretch to bring back a breakaway quite easily, especially if the wind is favourable. Looks a tough one, or one where after the start you're sitting pretty with a couple in the breakaway at big odds and the peloton showing little interest. I'm not getting into the habit of suggesting lays. |
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You're right about Scarponi, my bad. To be honest I thought the lay of Kittel would be a hell of a lot cheaper than it is.
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Bunch sprint or breakaway? Not really sure, the climbing data I was looking for is not presently available, so I have settled for a mix of both, at small stakes.
** Arnaud Demare Versatile sprinter who confirmed his U23 WC RR win potential when he claimed his first Monument by winning MSR earlier this season, albeit in controversial circumstances. Then failed to hold his condition for the cobbled classics with only a 5th-place finish in GW. Nevertheless, here on stage 2 he was found along the barriers with a strong sprint -- with FDJ in support -- for a 2nd-place finish. Most impressive however is that he finished at over 5mins ahead of Kittel on yesterday's stage, and the finish suits him very well. Requires a bunch sprint. Solid claims. Consider closely. 10/1 (various). 4 places 1/4 with Boyle looks very good value. E/W. * Sonny Colbrelli Still only 25yo. Has only ever raced the Giro of the GTs, and has never won a stage, however he will be buoyed by his fellow countryman's win yesterday. Won the 185km Gran Premio Citta di Lugano in Switzerland earlier in the season, before another solid ride for a top-10 result in MSR. Made the podium in AGR, showing his hardman credentials. BAR will have someone in the break and given the finale he looks perfectly suited to be their man. Proven over the distance and rode well in yesterday's stage when finishing in the main peloton group. Can win from break or in a bunch sprint. Improving type. Honest campaigner. Keep safe. 24/1 (various). E/W. 1/8* Alessandro De Marchi We've seen that when he is on the attack in one stage he usually sets out on a campaign of attacking and follows it into following stages. In a way he tests himself, and whilst that yesterday looked barely like a pass mark, he has at least shown more than his fellow BMC teammates. Came closest to a stage win in the Giro when he beat Stef Clement for 2nd in 2012. Would require the breakaway to win. May find his best. Take on trust. 100/1 (various). E/W. 1/16* Filippo Pozzato Wily old campaigner at 34yo and in his 17th season as a pro rider, who has shown some positive signs this season that he still has fight in his legs with a top-10 in MSR and a 4th-place finish in DDV. Moreover, showed some impressive injections of speed on yesterday's stage without making anything stick. STH have given him free reign if he is up for it. Breakaway or bunch sprint would suit under these circumstances. One for the multiples. Consider in those terms. 100/1 (various). E/W. Good luck to all, SP |
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If this does come to a sprint Demare would be my favourite, closely followed by Modolo.
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It's coming down to a bunch sprint, peloton were careful not to wipe it off too fast in case it inspired more attacks. Added Ewan at 20s on exchange for a saver, but confident on Demare and Colbrelli.
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Aussie Champ Bobridge has been parked on the back of the peloton day-after-day on account of a lack of confidence in his bike-handling skills riding in the guts of the peloton, and he finds a crash. Looks to be okay though, thankfully.
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Those big stones look horrendous...
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Might see a few flying attacks...
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No flying attacks but a Gorilla stomping over the stones in fine fashion. Amazing lead-out by teammate Roelandts, he fair kept the peloton strung-out for 3.5kms with that devastating pace on the front, preventing attacks. Amazing ride. It's funny because some riders can turn themselves inside-out for a teammate but would never find that kind of strength for themselves. Demare and Colbrelli didn't do much wrong, so was happy they rolled over the top of Jungels to claim podium places and E/W returns, however there was some smart money on the Gorilla as LTS assembled in numbers throughout the stage. He has obviously been working on his sprint on these slight inclines to pull away so strongly, and we have in the past seen him clear out in Flanders to pick up some steam for the Hellingen, so he was never terrible over roads with some gradient. Maybe overlooked his chances a bit. Ewan really requires some strength and physical presence in terms of positioning, and being so small the big stones just bounced him around too much and he lost position relatively easily.
Cheers, SP |
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That ended up a cracking result for me, brought in my Gorilla to win any stage bet 2/1
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