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Stage 4 » Catanzaro › Praia a Mare (200k)
200km face them after a rest day and a very long transfer from The Netherlands to Southern Italy as the Giro continues today. It's quite a tough first day on Italian soil. There are only two categorised climbs, both Cat 3s, but there are a number of other uncategorised slopes and with a stage win and jerseys on the line this should be an exciting stage. The first two thirds of the stage are relatively straightforward but it does get trickier in the final stages and whilst there is nothing too scary, it is just lumpy enough that anyone who has designs on either a stage win or a GC challenge will have to pay attention or risk losing out, and there's a nasty final lump that could see the out and out sprinters eliminated from the calculations.
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They start in Catanzaro, the capital of Calabria. Known as the city of two seas, Catanzaro sits on the Gulf of Squillace in the Ionian Sea. It is effectively on the bottom of the toe of the foot of Italy. They head West to the Tyrrhenian coast and then follow wide, fast coastal roads north. The first 100km or so are fairly easy, nice and flat. The peloton will surely coast along here as the break establishes itself. The biggest danger in this early part of the race is losing concentration and touching wheels. As long as the road stays next to the sea it is nice and flat, but the hills just inland give the route organisers the options to mix it up as the riders move north and indeed, there are challenges whenever the road turns inland including the two categorised climbs.
Bonifati is the first climb, coming after 119.5km. It is a nice steady climb, just over 6.5km long at an average of 6.2% this is a test but the maximum gradient is 9%. The steeper slopes are near the bottom and towards the top it gets easier. This should do nothing other than soften up the legs for some of the challenges ahead.
The second climb is San Pietro, which they take after 145km and is very similar to Bonifati. San Pietro is 5.3km at 6.8%. Again, the steepest slopes are in the first part of the climb where it gets up to 11%. They crest with just under 50km to go, and this was the last categorised climb but if the sprinters who are still in touch here think that's the end of the tough terrain they are mistaken. There is hardly a flat mile of road from here on in.
The last 9km or so are downhill and then flat but there is a nasty kick up at 10km to go. This is roughly 1.7km at 7.7%, which is hard enough for the sprinters but that isn't the end of the story. First of all, there is a ramp of almost 18% for about 150-200 metres. Then the gradient drops to around 5% for about 750 metres before ramping right up to 9% for about 500 metres and then a final 150 metres at 18%. With 9km to go anyone that gets over these slopes can think about the stage win but if you are dropped it's unlikely you can get back and contest the win.
So this will be a bunch sprint in Praia a Mare, a lovely beach town on the Tyrrhenian sea known for its large caves, but who will be here? It's likely that if Marcel Kittel is here, he wins. I don't think he will be. He has been climbing very well recently as he showed in Romandie where he made it to a finish to win when other riders were dropped, but I think this finish is too hard for him. If it was just the final climb he could probably make it but I think the earlier terrain wil take its toll on him and the other heavier sprinters. Greipel is the heaviest rider in the peloton. He can get over some climbs but again the cumulative nature of this stage will probably do for him. I think Viviani will probably struggle to get over these climbs as well, as will Caleb Ewan. If Ewan doesn't make it, that would free up Luca Mezgec, who would be a danger here. Nizzolo and Viviani can get over climbs but I think this is probably also too hard for them. I'd expect Demare and Modolo to be able to get over these lumps, and based on what we've seen in Holland, they'd be at the front of the queue to pick up the pieces. If the peloton really thins out, it would bring in riders like Navarauskas, Colbrelli, Arndt and Rojas and if they go really fast we're possibly looking at riders like Ulissi. Matteo Trentin also comes into the equation. He has won a bunch sprint in the Tour de France and if the front line sprinters are not on the premises he is a big danger.
Push comes to shove and I take Arnaud Demare to win today, 14/1 is a decent enough price and I'm happy with that. He should be able to get over these climbs, his team are in absolutely superb form and he has finally started to develop into the rider we always knew he could be. The other man I had earmarked for today was Sacha Modolo and I can't believe he is available at 25/1. The other prices I've taken are Navardauskas at 80/1 and Luca Mezgec at 33/1. Lastly, if Kittel doesn't make it to the finish today we will probably see Tom Dumoulin regain the maglia rosa here.
200km face them after a rest day and a very long transfer from The Netherlands to Southern Italy as the Giro continues today. It's quite a tough first day on Italian soil. There are only two categorised climbs, both Cat 3s, but there are a number of other uncategorised slopes and with a stage win and jerseys on the line this should be an exciting stage. The first two thirds of the stage are relatively straightforward but it does get trickier in the final stages and whilst there is nothing too scary, it is just lumpy enough that anyone who has designs on either a stage win or a GC challenge will have to pay attention or risk losing out, and there's a nasty final lump that could see the out and out sprinters eliminated from the calculations.
Map
Profile
They start in Catanzaro, the capital of Calabria. Known as the city of two seas, Catanzaro sits on the Gulf of Squillace in the Ionian Sea. It is effectively on the bottom of the toe of the foot of Italy. They head West to the Tyrrhenian coast and then follow wide, fast coastal roads north. The first 100km or so are fairly easy, nice and flat. The peloton will surely coast along here as the break establishes itself. The biggest danger in this early part of the race is losing concentration and touching wheels. As long as the road stays next to the sea it is nice and flat, but the hills just inland give the route organisers the options to mix it up as the riders move north and indeed, there are challenges whenever the road turns inland including the two categorised climbs.
Bonifati is the first climb, coming after 119.5km. It is a nice steady climb, just over 6.5km long at an average of 6.2% this is a test but the maximum gradient is 9%. The steeper slopes are near the bottom and towards the top it gets easier. This should do nothing other than soften up the legs for some of the challenges ahead.
The second climb is San Pietro, which they take after 145km and is very similar to Bonifati. San Pietro is 5.3km at 6.8%. Again, the steepest slopes are in the first part of the climb where it gets up to 11%. They crest with just under 50km to go, and this was the last categorised climb but if the sprinters who are still in touch here think that's the end of the tough terrain they are mistaken. There is hardly a flat mile of road from here on in.
The last 9km or so are downhill and then flat but there is a nasty kick up at 10km to go. This is roughly 1.7km at 7.7%, which is hard enough for the sprinters but that isn't the end of the story. First of all, there is a ramp of almost 18% for about 150-200 metres. Then the gradient drops to around 5% for about 750 metres before ramping right up to 9% for about 500 metres and then a final 150 metres at 18%. With 9km to go anyone that gets over these slopes can think about the stage win but if you are dropped it's unlikely you can get back and contest the win.
So this will be a bunch sprint in Praia a Mare, a lovely beach town on the Tyrrhenian sea known for its large caves, but who will be here? It's likely that if Marcel Kittel is here, he wins. I don't think he will be. He has been climbing very well recently as he showed in Romandie where he made it to a finish to win when other riders were dropped, but I think this finish is too hard for him. If it was just the final climb he could probably make it but I think the earlier terrain wil take its toll on him and the other heavier sprinters. Greipel is the heaviest rider in the peloton. He can get over some climbs but again the cumulative nature of this stage will probably do for him. I think Viviani will probably struggle to get over these climbs as well, as will Caleb Ewan. If Ewan doesn't make it, that would free up Luca Mezgec, who would be a danger here. Nizzolo and Viviani can get over climbs but I think this is probably also too hard for them. I'd expect Demare and Modolo to be able to get over these lumps, and based on what we've seen in Holland, they'd be at the front of the queue to pick up the pieces. If the peloton really thins out, it would bring in riders like Navarauskas, Colbrelli, Arndt and Rojas and if they go really fast we're possibly looking at riders like Ulissi. Matteo Trentin also comes into the equation. He has won a bunch sprint in the Tour de France and if the front line sprinters are not on the premises he is a big danger.
Push comes to shove and I take Arnaud Demare to win today, 14/1 is a decent enough price and I'm happy with that. He should be able to get over these climbs, his team are in absolutely superb form and he has finally started to develop into the rider we always knew he could be. The other man I had earmarked for today was Sacha Modolo and I can't believe he is available at 25/1. The other prices I've taken are Navardauskas at 80/1 and Luca Mezgec at 33/1. Lastly, if Kittel doesn't make it to the finish today we will probably see Tom Dumoulin regain the maglia rosa here.
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Spoilsports 5 places tomorrow. Joke Oral and Slybet 4 places.
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The transfer and the Rest Day can throw-out some riders and they may just arrive on the start line with heavy legs, which makes predicting this stage a little more difficult.
I agree with MC that if riders get dropped on the final climb, it is unlikely they get back on, however the final climb and the preceding hills are the perfect launch pads for puncheurs on stage hunting duties, and I think the long-range breakaway are in with a fair shout today. I also agree with MC that the cumulative climbing toward the end of this stage will make it difficult for the outright sprinters, impossible I would say to win, and I even think that the sprinters with expansive characteristics will struggle against the breakaway or the stage-hunting puncheurs. I therefore disagree that we get a bunch sprint of any sort, I think it is most likely to be a classics-style finish where a small group begin punching on each other until one rider clears out as a solo breakaway close to the line. Stefnao Pirazzi -- won a PCT stage in ITA this season and was a Giro stage winner two years ago. BAR are likely to have someone in the break and he is their best chance for a win. Expect a bold showing. Worthy of some consideration. E/W. Should be double his price. 150/1. Bob Jungels -- won for the first time for EQS on a similar finish in Oman at the start of the season when he attacked a classy group which formed the selection. Then came home well for 17th in SB. Has good TT ability which may advantage him on the power-downhill to the finish, and is not afraid to go solo. If he is riding a 55-tooth chainring it will be clear evidence he intends to do something. EQS will look to reward him with free reign to make the break, after his long turn on the front of the peloton on stage 2 when in service of Kittel. Exciting proposition. Good value. E/W. 66/1. Tim Wellens -- Looks to have taken another step up in class when he won the Nice stage in Paris-Nice earlier this season. Was looking very consistent and combatative in the Ardennes, perhaps only getting his timing wrong. A top-10 in AGR being his best result. Looks ideally suited here. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him attacking on the final climb. Warrants request. Consider closely. E/W. Short, should be 35/1. 18/1. Good luck to all, SP |
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Sure Wellens will attack, it's his birthday today as well. Reckon it will come together for some sort of group finish though, just without the first line sprinters.
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I realised that just after I posted.
 Looks like a headwind into the final 9kms of the finish after that final climb, so that will complicate the breakaway staying away, once the next one forms or the selection is made, however I still think we'll see a selective bunch take it, splintering to the line. |
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Movistar coming to the front. Could this be Valverde time?
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Sprinters got dropped on San Pietro and now also getting dropped on the small rolling climbs before the last climb!
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ULISSI! Damn, mentioned him never backed him.
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Dumoulin back in pink
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You must have been excited in those final kilometres SP. Pirazzi and Wellens in the break and Jungels on the premises late on.
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Cheers MC, but I wasn't trading much, just wanted one of those three picks to stick after paying for them with a Kittel lay. As you saw Pirazzi began to work for Colbrelli, Jungles went #EQS brand #waytoride but really just got played to go to the front and drive the pace hard like that, like for Kittel the other day, in fact. And whilst I thought Wellens was fading a bit prior to the final climb he just jumped out and I had belief in him returned, however he, like Jungels, required luck in so far as the race being run a little differently, and it just didn't suit them, in the end. Was quite chaotic, in a way. Anyway, then any hope of place terms went out the window when the GC group swarmed with numbers. Navardauskas was mentioned, but we have to remember that the Italians rate their climbs one star below the actual difficulty level. No chance of versatile sprinters getting close today.
Fair play to Ulissi. He was on my short list too, but I thought he might be expanding his characteristics in this Giro by going for the GC, and likely wouldn't be involved in any attacks so I didn't progress any further with him. Now I know different. He is a stage hunter plain and simple, and I was right to think that a puncheur would get it today, it was a very MSR-type finish, didn't you think? Maybe a bit harder with the climb, though. Fact is that Ulissi made the race for himself by distancing everyone on that final climb, and hanging tough on the run in, and well the headwind was more of a swirling breeze so it didn't really affect him much, and he nabbed a great solo win. Probably his biggest win of his career, coming as it has in his national tour on home soil. Splendid win, joyous ITA scenes. Thoroughly enjoyable to watch. |
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Agree it was similar to MSR although as you say the climb was much harder than the Poggio. I always think stages like that are the best. As much as I like mountain stages and sprints, the ones where it's all about how fast the climbs are taken and who can get back on are very enjoyable.
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Fair enough, but I don't like how chaotic they can be, it's a trader's dream but I don't like to trade IR if I don't have to, much more prefer the slow-motion big pieces moving on the chess board-type stages.
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