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Stage 3 » Nijmegen › Arnhem (190k)
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Another likely sprint stage today and another chance for Marcel Kittel after yesterday's route from Arnhem to Nijmejen the start and finish towns are reversed today. The stage is very similar to yesterday too, even though very few of the same roads are used, and it would be no surprise to see another bunch finish. Yesterday we mainly described a large anticlockwise half loop out to the West of the start and finish towns. Today we do the rest of this anti-clockwise loop out to the East. Like yesterday this stage is almost entirely flat, with a sole categorised (Cat 4) climb just over 50km from the end before a final circuit in the finish city Arnhem.
Like yesterday the final circuit takes place on wide boulevards, again with a river crossing that we cross twice. This time it is bridges over the river Nederrijn on this slightly longer circuit, 14.0km this time. Like yesterday there are a number of roundabouts,as well as the slopes on the bridges that will require careful positioning and therefore team mates to avoid using unnecessary energy to get back towards the front. One further complication is a short tunnel that they take roughly 6km from the finish. Other than those complications there is nothing that should stop this being a very fast finish. There is a final roundabout after the kite and then the road bends gently round to the left to the finish. Again, this is perfect terrain for a bunch sprint and we're very likely to see one.
The number one contender for the win is again Marcel Kittel. His Etixx train worked superbly yesterday. They did most of the chasing, eased up on the final circuit before hitting the front in numbers. Only FDJ were really able to get men up to support their sprinter Demare when Etixx hit the front. His leadout of Wisnioski and Trentin did a superb job. His last man Sabatini was a little outpaced but it didn't matter. Kittel, tucked in behind Demare and left everyone for dead when he accelerated. Kittel just had too much power and pace for everyone else and he got such a good lead. He also took 10 bonus seconds with the win yesterday, which means he is now just one second behind Dumoulin and has a great chance to take the maglia rosa. Arnaud Demare took second yesterday to answer any questions about his form. His train did an absolutely superb job to deliver him to the right place and he was too fast for everyone except Kittel. If things play out the same way as Saturday it's tough to see Demare overturning that result but with other trains not clicking yet, another podium finish is very possible. Sacha Modolo finished 3rd on Saturday without a huge amount of team support although Ferrari did a great job in the penultimate kilometre of delivering Modolo onto the back of the other sprinters and he was able to get himself on the podium. Andre Greipel was the biggest disappointment on Saturday. On peak form he is probably the only man who can challenge Kittel for pace but he only managed to get 15th place. It looks like it was just a case of Greipel not having the legs as Lotto did seem to get men towards the front in the last few kilometres. Another non-performer was Elia Viviani. It was always going to be difficult for Viviani to stay up at the front with no support from his team but his 13th place finish would have been a disappointment. Caleb Ewan had some help from his team and was on the premises but only managed 7th place. It is still a learning process for the young Aussie and it would be no surprise to see him getting a podium finish as even though he can't beat Kittel yet, he shouldn't fear any of the other sprinters here. Moreno Hofland just missed out on a podium on Saturday and his Lotto team have been very visible in the two stages of the Big Start in the Netherlands. A podium might be feasible here and would be a good result.
In a way, Kittel's dominance on Saturday could count against Etixx here. The other teams know they can't beat the German in a fair sprint so they will have to make Etixx work for their dinner. Giant know they won't be keeping hold of the jersey so there's no onus on them to work. If the other teams refuse to help to bring back the morning breakaway Etixx will have to do a lot of work by themselves. After their strong performance yesterday it's possible FDJ might lend a hand but their best chance of getting a win is to massively weaken Kittel's train by making them do all the work on the front of the peloton. This is the sort of brinksmanship that can sometimes see a break make it home. My prediction is that the catch will come late on. Etixx will have to do all the work. It will be a lot closer than yesterday, he might have to find someone else's wheel and it could look a bit ropey but Marcel Kittel will still win. Just.
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Another likely sprint stage today and another chance for Marcel Kittel after yesterday's route from Arnhem to Nijmejen the start and finish towns are reversed today. The stage is very similar to yesterday too, even though very few of the same roads are used, and it would be no surprise to see another bunch finish. Yesterday we mainly described a large anticlockwise half loop out to the West of the start and finish towns. Today we do the rest of this anti-clockwise loop out to the East. Like yesterday this stage is almost entirely flat, with a sole categorised (Cat 4) climb just over 50km from the end before a final circuit in the finish city Arnhem.
Like yesterday the final circuit takes place on wide boulevards, again with a river crossing that we cross twice. This time it is bridges over the river Nederrijn on this slightly longer circuit, 14.0km this time. Like yesterday there are a number of roundabouts,as well as the slopes on the bridges that will require careful positioning and therefore team mates to avoid using unnecessary energy to get back towards the front. One further complication is a short tunnel that they take roughly 6km from the finish. Other than those complications there is nothing that should stop this being a very fast finish. There is a final roundabout after the kite and then the road bends gently round to the left to the finish. Again, this is perfect terrain for a bunch sprint and we're very likely to see one.
The number one contender for the win is again Marcel Kittel. His Etixx train worked superbly yesterday. They did most of the chasing, eased up on the final circuit before hitting the front in numbers. Only FDJ were really able to get men up to support their sprinter Demare when Etixx hit the front. His leadout of Wisnioski and Trentin did a superb job. His last man Sabatini was a little outpaced but it didn't matter. Kittel, tucked in behind Demare and left everyone for dead when he accelerated. Kittel just had too much power and pace for everyone else and he got such a good lead. He also took 10 bonus seconds with the win yesterday, which means he is now just one second behind Dumoulin and has a great chance to take the maglia rosa. Arnaud Demare took second yesterday to answer any questions about his form. His train did an absolutely superb job to deliver him to the right place and he was too fast for everyone except Kittel. If things play out the same way as Saturday it's tough to see Demare overturning that result but with other trains not clicking yet, another podium finish is very possible. Sacha Modolo finished 3rd on Saturday without a huge amount of team support although Ferrari did a great job in the penultimate kilometre of delivering Modolo onto the back of the other sprinters and he was able to get himself on the podium. Andre Greipel was the biggest disappointment on Saturday. On peak form he is probably the only man who can challenge Kittel for pace but he only managed to get 15th place. It looks like it was just a case of Greipel not having the legs as Lotto did seem to get men towards the front in the last few kilometres. Another non-performer was Elia Viviani. It was always going to be difficult for Viviani to stay up at the front with no support from his team but his 13th place finish would have been a disappointment. Caleb Ewan had some help from his team and was on the premises but only managed 7th place. It is still a learning process for the young Aussie and it would be no surprise to see him getting a podium finish as even though he can't beat Kittel yet, he shouldn't fear any of the other sprinters here. Moreno Hofland just missed out on a podium on Saturday and his Lotto team have been very visible in the two stages of the Big Start in the Netherlands. A podium might be feasible here and would be a good result.
In a way, Kittel's dominance on Saturday could count against Etixx here. The other teams know they can't beat the German in a fair sprint so they will have to make Etixx work for their dinner. Giant know they won't be keeping hold of the jersey so there's no onus on them to work. If the other teams refuse to help to bring back the morning breakaway Etixx will have to do a lot of work by themselves. After their strong performance yesterday it's possible FDJ might lend a hand but their best chance of getting a win is to massively weaken Kittel's train by making them do all the work on the front of the peloton. This is the sort of brinksmanship that can sometimes see a break make it home. My prediction is that the catch will come late on. Etixx will have to do all the work. It will be a lot closer than yesterday, he might have to find someone else's wheel and it could look a bit ropey but Marcel Kittel will still win. Just.
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Nice write-up MC, I'm going to review today's stage with this info. 
What we know about flat stages in GTs is that the sprint teams value these opportunities to get the win, even when one team appears to want to dominate or is indeed looking unbeatable. It goes to their ethos, cycling is a team sport after all, and the sprint teams will contribute regardless of the perceived strength of any one team, which in this case is EQS with Kittel, obviously.
When was the last time a breakaway succeeded on a flat stage? I am struggling to remember, it was so long ago and it occurs so rarely. I just don't see that after getting close by being on the scene yesterday, the riders involved -- such as MC has reviewed -- will not want another opportunity to try and win because they think Kittel is looking too strong. These guys are racers, they will always back themselves for a win.
I therefore think one way or the other we will see a bunch sprint, and with Kittel's gears/kicks it can only be another dominant performance for the win, from him. Having said that, the odds are prohibitive, not anywhere near where they were yesterday, so I have backed off with my stake suitably.
Good luck to all,
SP
When was the last time a breakaway succeeded on a flat stage? I am struggling to remember, it was so long ago and it occurs so rarely. I just don't see that after getting close by being on the scene yesterday, the riders involved -- such as MC has reviewed -- will not want another opportunity to try and win because they think Kittel is looking too strong. These guys are racers, they will always back themselves for a win.
I therefore think one way or the other we will see a bunch sprint, and with Kittel's gears/kicks it can only be another dominant performance for the win, from him. Having said that, the odds are prohibitive, not anywhere near where they were yesterday, so I have backed off with my stake suitably.
Good luck to all,
SP
Poetry in motion. Beautiful.
Can he win all the sprints, is the next question?
Can he win all the sprints, is the next question?
The more he wins the more work Etixx have to do and the more isolated he gets. I reckon even for the next one he'll rate as a lay. Just finished the stage 4 write up but waiting for the rest of the prices before committing to a bet. Reckon Navardauskas 80/1 and Mezgec 33/1 are good bets PP.
That's definitely a valid point, and he can get isolated if EQS fail in providing support by controlling the head of the peloton or failing to deliver him to the front at the right time, I agree, but he is looking so dominant that he can follow wheels and then just go long, and that ability is a very strong answer to becoming isolated. It's almost, to my view, a situation where if he can get delivered anywhere near the front of the peloton in the final 700-1000m he will win. I therefore won't be looking to lay, he was 5/4 when the panic set in about 2kms to-go today, and I think whilst I started with a small stake with him today, unlike yesterday, it was foolish not to have increased stake at that price.
Very interested to get your take for stage 4 MC, looks a tricky one to call on paper so am going full-on timeform treatment before revealing any ante-post selections. Will probably have three or four but Navardauskas was not one I was looking for, will take another look though. Don't like Mezgec at all, and definitely not at that price.
I think your only error for the stage prediction of this thread was the suggestion it was going to be close.
Cheers,
SP
Very interested to get your take for stage 4 MC, looks a tricky one to call on paper so am going full-on timeform treatment before revealing any ante-post selections. Will probably have three or four but Navardauskas was not one I was looking for, will take another look though. Don't like Mezgec at all, and definitely not at that price.
I think your only error for the stage prediction of this thread was the suggestion it was going to be close.
Cheers,
SP
Yeah was fairly happy with the way I called it, I was a bit surprised Etixx got the help they did.
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