*Giro d'Italia - Stage 2*

Stage 2  »  Arnhem  ›  Nijmegen   (190k)

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The first road stage looks destined to end in a bunch sprint in Nijmejen. The sprint contests in this race will be one of the key features of this race. This is one of several stages that look good for the fast men and most of them are here. After Friday's short time trial, we get this Giro underway properly in the Dutch province of Gelderland. The route is almost completely pan flat, with just a small Cat 4 climb 50km from the end that will see the first mountain points allocated and subsequently the first climber's jersey awarded. This little hill will have no significance in terms of deciding the winner of the day's stage however as it is too easy for all the riders and too far from the finish. Unfortunately for the riders in the first break of the race, they have virtually no chance of holding out today as there are just too many teams with a vested interest in a bunch sprint. There is another prize for any riders who performed well in the time trial too - the maglia rosa. But all eyes will be on Marcel Kittel to see if he can win his first Grand Tour stage for Etixx.

Starting in Arnhem the riders head North out of the city before describing an anticlockwise loop through the very flat countryside. Apart from the usual street furniture and the typical nervousness in the early Grand Tour peloton, the only early complication comes at roughly 90km when the riders negotiate a narrow cycle path. At 155km they tackle the only climb of the day, the Berg en Dal. At only 1.1km this will not be causing anyone any sleepless nights. It does have gradients approaching 12% near the top but this section is only about 350m long and will not cause splits. After this climb the riders head back to Nijmejen for an 8.6km long city centre circuit which is taken twice.

Finish

Last kms

The pace as the riders hit the finish circuit will be very fast. Although the avenues are wide and largely free of sharp turns, this city centre loop contains road furniture and has 2 bridge river crossings. This will mean high levels of nervousness as teams try to keep sprinters and GC riders well positioned, driving a furious speed. The home straight is on an 8m wide asphalt road that bends round to the right after the kite and should be absolutely perfect for a bunch sprint. We have seen the peloton miscalculate the catch early on in Grand Tour road stages but there are too many teams with top level sprinters for that to happen here so the sprint is inevitable.

Marcel Kittel has proved himself the fastest man in the peloton on many occasions. The 27 year old German has 11 Grand Tour stages to his name and will see the first couple of weeks of this race as a golden chance to add a bunch more to that record. In both 2013 and 2014 Kittel won 4 stages of the Tour de France with Giant. Incredibly, in both years he won the first stage to get the yellow jersey AND the last stage on the Champs-Élysées. In 2015 he was not selected for the Tour after an injury-plagued start to his season and he eventually left the German team and signed for Etixx. Any questions about whether he would be successful in his new team have now been put to bed. This season Kittel has come home first in 7 races including winning Scheldprijs for the 4th time and a stage in Romandie last month. His team's only real goal is to win stages with him and his train looks excellent. Jungels, Wisniowski, Trentin and Sabatini have looked very impressive in their leadout duties and he put in a superb ride for 5th on Friday in the time trial which mean that he can also pick up the leader's jersey with the time bonuses. He is definitely the man to beat when it comes to the flat stages and he's got a great chance on Saturday.

His compatriot Andre Greipel is to my mind Kittel's main rival for the sprint stages including today. He got out early and posted an excellent time against the clock on Friday to answer any lingering questions about his form, and the Gorilla will be looking to use his experience and pure power to nick some sprint wins. I've backed him at 2/1 to win any stage in the race, so I'll be very interested to see how he fares against Kittel. The 33 year old has 17 Grand Tour stage wins now, picking up 10 in the Tour de France, 3 in the Giro and 4 in the Vuelta. He proved in the 2015 Tour that he still had what it takes, taking 4 wins. He has had a lighter than normal early season prep this year, but he showed he in good shape when he won a stage of the Tour of Turkey last month when he won from a smqll group after crosswinds had played havoc with the race. The lynchpin of his leadout train Greg Henderson was not quite fit enough so he is relying on Bak, Hansen and Roelandts. That's a pretty good train but Greipel will miss Hendo. Caleb Ewan announced himself on the world stage when he beat Sagan and Degenkolb to win Stage 5 of the 2015 Vuelta. The 21 year old Aussie already has 21 pro wins to his name and is at a team that are masters at winning the tactical battles on the road. He picked up two stages at the Tour Down Under this season but didn't manage to add to that at Tirreno-Adriatico or Tour de Yorkshire. It will be very interesting to see how he goes against the big Germans but his team are also focussed on Chaves' GC bid and I can't see him winning this. A podium would be an excellent result.

Elia Viviani joined Team Sky in 2015 and picked up his first Grand Tour win in his home tour when he won the bunch sprint in Genoa on stage 2. The 27 year old ex-Cannondale rider won't have a huge amount of team support here as Sky are here to win the pink jersey with Mikel Landa, so he will have to find his own wheels but that is nothing new for Viviani and he is seemingly getting the confidence to mix it with the big boys. He has already won a stage in Dubai and at the 3 Days of De Panne and it would be no surprise to see him win a stage or two at the 2016 Giro, but it may be later in the race in one of the messier sprints and whilst he's probably a decent shout for a podium it's hard to see him coming out on top here unless the dedicated sprint trains make a mess of it. Sacha Modolo won two stages in 2015 and has shown he's in cracking form with two wins in Turkey last month. His train is experienced and well drilled and will try and leave it very late to bring Modolo into contention. Whilst he probably doesn't have the out and out speed to beat Kittel and Greipel on this flat stage in Holland he will be on the premises for a good placing, will probably contend for the points jersey and is a massive shout for the slightly tougher sprints later on. It's difficult to know what to expect from Arnaud Demare. The FDJ sprinter and classics specialist has had a tough couple of years but has shot back into form in a big way in 2016. He won a stage of Paris-Nice and then took down Milan-San Remo before leading home the bunch for 5th behind the 4 escapees who were never brought back in Gent-Wevelgem. He hasn't raced since crashing in Tour of Flanders. Realistically, he probably can't beat some of these guys here but can get over some of the lumps and bumps so has a big chance of a stage win or two later in the race if he's recovered his form. Giacomo Nizzolo won the Giro points jersey in 2015 but did it without winning a stage. He doesn't have the pace to beat the very fastest men but he will get an excellent leadout from his Trek team and should get a number of high placings. He's favourite to take the points jersey again this year which is more than feasible and if he can get a first stage win at his home tour into the bargain it will be a very successful race for him. There's plenty of other contenders like Jakub Mareczko, Moreno Hofland, Matteo Pelucchi, Kristian Sbaragli, Nikias Arndt and Alexandr Porsev but it would be a big turnup for any of them to turn over the favourites and most of them will be looking for the slightly harder finishes or messier sprints for their chance to take a stage win.
There's plenty of sprint talent and this should be a real sprinting feast, but to be honest this is all about Marcel Kittel. He's the fastest man here, he has the best leadout train and he's in fantastic shape as he showed in the Stage 1 time trial. Anything better than evens is worth a punt I reckon, he really should be taking this down. I fancy Greipel and Viviani to make up the podium.