Cycling
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
22 Apr 16
16:39
Joined:
Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
*** Dan Martin Won this in 2013. Then in 2014 looked set to defend his title with a victory when stalking Caruso whilst in 2nd-place going into the final corner, however he crashed, then remounting to finish in 39th-place, +1:37. Was unlucky in 2015 when he crashed out of FW before being involved in another crash in LBL for a DNF.
Earlier this season he looked in impressive form when riding in Catalunya against a GT field to make the podium against more-fancied riders. Questions were asked about his form in the Basque Country after some poor results, however he was using it as a mild training ride for his two Ardennes rides, the first of which he passed with flying colours after following teammate Alaphillippe onto the podium in FW last start. Had arguably the tougher of the two EQS rides after being the first to attack Valverde on the Mur de Huy, however that does suit his style. Nevertheless, he looks to have much more improvement on that ride and is an expert over this circuit.
SP on here 10/1, 14/1 elsewhere and the high. Low of 5/1. WIN ONLY.
Commands the upmost respect. Hard to beat. Worthy of very close consideration.
** Julian Alaphillippe Still only 23yo but has come through the EQS program as a future star for the Ardennes. It was correct to overlook his AGR failure (where he finished in 6th-place) ahead of his last start ride in FW where he finished in 2nd-place, after taking into account that he crashed during the AGR race which caused him to change his shoes and have to chase back on.
Once he reached a high level of his condition in the Ardennes last season he maintained it into LBL, and getting the positive physical feedback confirmation that he is past his long illness, one would expect him to be involved in the main selections in this race.
SP 16/1, high of 22/1, low 8/1. E/W.
Can give a very good account of himself. Keep safe.
* Rui Costa 4th here last year, which was his best result. He hasn't really impressed in the Ardennes this campaign, going 17/10 in his last two starts, especially after suggesting a top condition at the conclusion of his ride in the Basque Country. Is much better suited over this circuit and finale, and has proven his hard-man credentials by winning the Rainbow jersey in 2013.
Has ranged in price primarily between 18/1 and 25/1. E/W.
Likely to be in it for a long way. One of the main contenders. Consider closely.
1/2* Romain Bardet Finished in 2nd-place in the Under23 LBL race in 2011 when only 20yo. Has improved in each Elite race since 2013, going 13/10/6. Has targeted this race exclusively by using the Giro del Trentino stage race as a test, and he can be awarded a pass mark with a 6th-place finish on GC.
Has ranged in price primarily between 33/1 and 40/1. E/W.
May find conditions to his liking. Has some podium credentials. Consider.
1/8* Stephen Cummings Looks better than his best results over-this-course when going 22nd in 2010, and 26th in 2015, especially after his strong showing in FW last start, when being disadvantaged by the finale he had to attack early and was indeed seen attacking with a big engine before being caught by the peloton and finishing at the tail of the field.
PP have gone: SP 150/1, then 66/1, and then 50/1. E/W.
Place claims best. Take on trust.
---
Good luck to all,
SP
Earlier this season he looked in impressive form when riding in Catalunya against a GT field to make the podium against more-fancied riders. Questions were asked about his form in the Basque Country after some poor results, however he was using it as a mild training ride for his two Ardennes rides, the first of which he passed with flying colours after following teammate Alaphillippe onto the podium in FW last start. Had arguably the tougher of the two EQS rides after being the first to attack Valverde on the Mur de Huy, however that does suit his style. Nevertheless, he looks to have much more improvement on that ride and is an expert over this circuit.
SP on here 10/1, 14/1 elsewhere and the high. Low of 5/1. WIN ONLY.
Commands the upmost respect. Hard to beat. Worthy of very close consideration.
** Julian Alaphillippe Still only 23yo but has come through the EQS program as a future star for the Ardennes. It was correct to overlook his AGR failure (where he finished in 6th-place) ahead of his last start ride in FW where he finished in 2nd-place, after taking into account that he crashed during the AGR race which caused him to change his shoes and have to chase back on.
Once he reached a high level of his condition in the Ardennes last season he maintained it into LBL, and getting the positive physical feedback confirmation that he is past his long illness, one would expect him to be involved in the main selections in this race.
SP 16/1, high of 22/1, low 8/1. E/W.
Can give a very good account of himself. Keep safe.
* Rui Costa 4th here last year, which was his best result. He hasn't really impressed in the Ardennes this campaign, going 17/10 in his last two starts, especially after suggesting a top condition at the conclusion of his ride in the Basque Country. Is much better suited over this circuit and finale, and has proven his hard-man credentials by winning the Rainbow jersey in 2013.
Has ranged in price primarily between 18/1 and 25/1. E/W.
Likely to be in it for a long way. One of the main contenders. Consider closely.
1/2* Romain Bardet Finished in 2nd-place in the Under23 LBL race in 2011 when only 20yo. Has improved in each Elite race since 2013, going 13/10/6. Has targeted this race exclusively by using the Giro del Trentino stage race as a test, and he can be awarded a pass mark with a 6th-place finish on GC.
Has ranged in price primarily between 33/1 and 40/1. E/W.
May find conditions to his liking. Has some podium credentials. Consider.
1/8* Stephen Cummings Looks better than his best results over-this-course when going 22nd in 2010, and 26th in 2015, especially after his strong showing in FW last start, when being disadvantaged by the finale he had to attack early and was indeed seen attacking with a big engine before being caught by the peloton and finishing at the tail of the field.
PP have gone: SP 150/1, then 66/1, and then 50/1. E/W.
Place claims best. Take on trust.
---
Good luck to all,
SP
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 10
|
By:
Wout Poels. Always been a rider to watch for me ever since he finished 2nd on the Angliru stage in the 2011 Vuelta behind the overall race winner Cobo. He also finished in front of Wiggins and a certain Chris Froome on that day and the day before also. Definitely no fluke. Great ride from Albasini too.
|
|
By:
Finally a Classic win for Sky, oddly enough after spending little time charging away on the front for once.
Hopefully they will put more focus into winning these great one day races now, they have all been fantastic viewing again. |
|
By:
Quite amazing conditions, and watching the facial expressions of the riders when the moto was drifting back through the peloton as they were going through some of the heavy parts was almost painful. Highly entertaining classic, easily the best of the three Ardennes races.
Just when you think you have seen the worst of EQS tactics and race moves, they assemble on the front toward the end, and pile on the pressure for their two own riders in Dan Martin and Alaphillippe. It appeared to me like the peloton was going to crack regardless. The tough conditions were dictating terms and that injection of pace was not even required at that point, especially since those attacks being launched soon after were futile in those conditions and also after the hard pace of the peloton throughout long portions of the race in chasing the long-range breakaway containing De Marchi. Brilliant strength by Poels to win, I agree that we have seen his rising potential over recent years, but to get the job done in this class and conditions was a genuine breakthrough ride for his career, and he did put the writing on the wall in FW. Albasini was impressive to hit back at his age after an excellent ride in FW -- didn't see that from him. Good for Rui Costa to get on the podium, however it was a poor result after he was found to be inattentive going into the final corner when just earlier priming his legs for a sprint. I think that ride was way down on where he was in 2013 as a rider, and whilst long-term career predictions are often a load of nonsense, I think he may struggle to rediscover his winning ways. I mean, it looked to me like he just managed to rescue his contract in this race, and was simply overjoyed on that basis. Cheers, SP |
|
By:
I'm a casual once a year tour de france viewer, but is Froome at 15/8 as good as it looks?
|
|
By:
Hey Mooono, I believe you are asking me that question so I will seek to provide you an answer.
Firstly, that 15/8 exchange price is currently the best price in the marketplace, including the Books, which is really not that surprising given how much money the Books hold on the defending champion and a multiple winner representing GBR by -- like yourself -- the once a year TdF punter. However, in terms of volume 2/1 and better remains the dominant matched price on the exchange, which is far superior to what the Books are offering in the current environment. I'm concentrating on the Giro presently, although I must admit that I didn't think much of Froome's ride in Catalunya. In fact, if I remember correctly I was quite scathing. Nevertheless, since 2012 he has used both Romandie and Dauphine as his two major tests to assess his condition going into the TdF, so it's not really a surprise to see him on the start in Romandie right now, even though I think it holds great potential of psychological injury to his TdF defence should he fail badly, coming as it were on the back of a poor ride in Catalunya (and DS excuses which defy any logical scrutiny). However, it does offer him a test under race conditions, and the thing about Froome is that he has twice won these two lead-in races and being a racer and a champion he has no fear to go up against his opposition. The main one in Romandie being Quintana, who is suggesting this season the type of shape and riding he showed in his 2013 TdF debut, which saw him finish in 2nd-place. So, to begin to find a conclusion in relation to your question: I don't think Froome's price looks that good at 15/8 when the dominant matched price has been 2/1 or better, and when he has shown nothing since Catalunya to suggest it should be below 2/1, let alone at 15/8, especially not this far out from the Grand Depart. The next part is to consider that there is confidence by some backers that he is going to have a strong ride in Romandie and the price is an anticipation of an imminent short, the first evidence of which will come tomorrow on the stage 2 climb into Morgens, however given that he has never won a climbing stage in Romandie (2012), I think it would be speculation of the grandest scale to suggest that he will do so tomorrow, and consequently influence his price in the TdF market to below 15/8. I mean, even if he wins Romandie, his Dauphine ride will have a far greater impact on his TdF price than anything he does here, although a good performance here has the ability to snowball confidence of his title defence in himself and his price, but the price can only ever move incrementally this far out, and so whilst it might eventually look the best price (now) in retrospect, should he lay down a marker with a top performance here, I don't think 15/8 represents any value to get involved at this point, and would therefore foresee a return to 2/1 or better at least prior to his start in the Dauphine, and depending on his ride there possibly finding a new ceiling. Cheers, SP |
|
By:
I'd also add that no-one has defended the Tour for a long time and Quintana has looked stronger and stronger each year.
|
|
By:
given the route of this year's TdF I think even bad 2/1 is a bad price on Froome, and I don't expect him to perform in Romandie to shorten the current price, though a mediocre performance here shouldn't mean he can't win the Tour, as he showed last year.
|
|
By:
Thanks for the reply SwingingPick :)
|
|
By:
No worries mate, it was an interesting question, and good to get some early thoughts down, thanks for asking it.
I wouldn't disagree with anything MC and bb66 have said, although I would say that Froome is certainly a special rider who has the ability to go back-to-back, but he just requires things to fall into place for him at the right time (a majority of that seems to be psychological) and whilst he doesn't need a great result in Romandie to do well in the TdF, he does ride much more confidently and with deeper reserves of strength when on an ascending or dominant form arc. Having said that, the Dauphine is where he can bring his A-game and still impose himself on the TdF field as the one to beat. |
|
By:
the price has to include also the risk of Froome getting injuring by a fall up to and in the Tour, which considering his technical weakness in wet conditions can't be neglected.
|