Cycling
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15 Apr 16
19:33
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11 Jul 11
*** Julian Alaphillippe Still only 23yo but has come through the EQS program as a future star for the Ardennes. 7th here last year when after sitting on the back of the race-winning group he found a series of closing gaps in the finale, whilst appearing to match his acceleration with that of former teammate and winner Kwiatkowski. Was then highly-consistent along his Ardennes campaign, finishing in 2nd-place both in FW and LBL.
Got sick late last season, so perhaps it's not been surprising that he has not been mentioned earlier this year with absolutely no form whatsoever to speak of, however it seems like he has put all that behind him with a highly-impressive last start ride in the Brabant Arrow when finishing in 8th-place overall, but having no business in finishing in 5th-place of the main peloton group. Firstly, with 28kms to-go he was the only rider who could bridge to Wellens long after Wellens attacked, and then proceeded to do his equal share of the pulling for the following 10kms before attempting to skip-away (in cyclo-cross style) from Wellens on the Hertstraat edge (at 18kms to-go) before then again combining with Wellens for a further 6kms (16kms in total) until eventually getting caught by the peloton. Secondly, and quite outstandingly, when Vakoc moved to the front of the peloton with 5kms to-go, JA joined alongside and then covered all of the multiple frantic attacks, before driving the five-man breakaway (which had suddenly formed), in service of his teammate and eventual winner Vakoc.
Should be the standout favourite here on the strength of that ride after completing an astonishing amount of work on the road. Likely to fall back on the Cauberg on the last occasion, however he has the characteristics to recover quickly and power along the flat approach to the finish line should the race (likely) reform there as it did last year. Would be a 5* pick if not for the heavy hierarchical structure in EQS and their poor DS decisions of the past.
SP and high of 33/1. Low of 17/1 with some. Finding solid support unsurprisingly as his price continues to tumble across the boards. E/W.
Has very strong claims. Treat warily.
** Michal Kwiatkowski Won this in 2015. Initially went out late after Gilbert and Bling on the Cauberg, and when he sat down approaching the crest it looked like he was done for all money, however he refused to give up, showing his tough WC credentials, before getting towed-in by Purito on the flat to join the three leaders and resting-up, before coming out of the guts when the group swelled to 17 riders to win impressively.
Showed signs of a building season this year when gave glimpses of his impressive characteristics, firstly in SB and then late in MSR, before going on to win E3 as tipped on this forum to land some good bets from 25-33-40/1. Has been spelled since riding out RVV, and races well fresh.
5/1 at SP, 9/2 low, 6/1 high. Solid interest across the boards. WIN ONLY.
Expect a bold showing. Consider very closely.
* Petr Vakoc Had given every indication for a good result over suitable hilly terrain this season when winning twice in FRA at the end of FEB (one of which was over 200kms) and then next-up finishing 5th in SB, so his last start win in the Brabant Arrow came as no big surprise, however the manner of his win, his actual physical shape on the bike, and the cunning nature he displayed to surge to the head of the peloton at the perfect time with 5kms to-go, all points to a rider in a completely different class to that which finished in 50th-place last year over his one and only start over this course.
Low 10/1, high 18/1. WIN ONLY.
Exciting proposition. Hard to fault. Difficult to discount. Consider.
---
Good luck to all,
SP
Got sick late last season, so perhaps it's not been surprising that he has not been mentioned earlier this year with absolutely no form whatsoever to speak of, however it seems like he has put all that behind him with a highly-impressive last start ride in the Brabant Arrow when finishing in 8th-place overall, but having no business in finishing in 5th-place of the main peloton group. Firstly, with 28kms to-go he was the only rider who could bridge to Wellens long after Wellens attacked, and then proceeded to do his equal share of the pulling for the following 10kms before attempting to skip-away (in cyclo-cross style) from Wellens on the Hertstraat edge (at 18kms to-go) before then again combining with Wellens for a further 6kms (16kms in total) until eventually getting caught by the peloton. Secondly, and quite outstandingly, when Vakoc moved to the front of the peloton with 5kms to-go, JA joined alongside and then covered all of the multiple frantic attacks, before driving the five-man breakaway (which had suddenly formed), in service of his teammate and eventual winner Vakoc.
Should be the standout favourite here on the strength of that ride after completing an astonishing amount of work on the road. Likely to fall back on the Cauberg on the last occasion, however he has the characteristics to recover quickly and power along the flat approach to the finish line should the race (likely) reform there as it did last year. Would be a 5* pick if not for the heavy hierarchical structure in EQS and their poor DS decisions of the past.
SP and high of 33/1. Low of 17/1 with some. Finding solid support unsurprisingly as his price continues to tumble across the boards. E/W.
Has very strong claims. Treat warily.
** Michal Kwiatkowski Won this in 2015. Initially went out late after Gilbert and Bling on the Cauberg, and when he sat down approaching the crest it looked like he was done for all money, however he refused to give up, showing his tough WC credentials, before getting towed-in by Purito on the flat to join the three leaders and resting-up, before coming out of the guts when the group swelled to 17 riders to win impressively.
Showed signs of a building season this year when gave glimpses of his impressive characteristics, firstly in SB and then late in MSR, before going on to win E3 as tipped on this forum to land some good bets from 25-33-40/1. Has been spelled since riding out RVV, and races well fresh.
5/1 at SP, 9/2 low, 6/1 high. Solid interest across the boards. WIN ONLY.
Expect a bold showing. Consider very closely.
* Petr Vakoc Had given every indication for a good result over suitable hilly terrain this season when winning twice in FRA at the end of FEB (one of which was over 200kms) and then next-up finishing 5th in SB, so his last start win in the Brabant Arrow came as no big surprise, however the manner of his win, his actual physical shape on the bike, and the cunning nature he displayed to surge to the head of the peloton at the perfect time with 5kms to-go, all points to a rider in a completely different class to that which finished in 50th-place last year over his one and only start over this course.
Low 10/1, high 18/1. WIN ONLY.
Exciting proposition. Hard to fault. Difficult to discount. Consider.
---
Good luck to all,
SP
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Looking closely at perhaps adding Dumoulin late. Anyone considering the Dutchman in partisan territory?
Since the finish was moved from the top of the Cauberg to Valkenberg in 2013, two of the three races were won with a solo breakaway. So whilst I have approached my selections with last year's selective bunch sprint scenario as most likely, Dumoulin fits the style of rider to win as a solo breakaway, perhaps by attacking with 17kms to-go like Kreuziger did in 2013 to win. Gilbert got clear on the Cauberg when he won solo in 2014, but I'm not confident there are any riders in the peloton this year capable of such a display of strength, certainly not Gilbert, and so having a long-range attacker with expert TT skills might be a good play for safety, and Dumoulin might fit. Cheers, SP |
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Days like that I wonder why I bother sometimes...
Kwiatkowski out-the-back, early. Dumoulin out-the-back, early. Vakoc out-the-back of the chasing main group. Alaphilippe may have shown more if Gasparotto and Valgren were brought back earlier, but fair play to the old campaigner, he won it on the Cauberg with strength I didn't think any rider would show on that brutal climb, and Valgren played his part by settling for a podium in driving them to the line with secs in hand. Cheers, SP |
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just seen that Fabio Felline crash in the neutral zone.
Looked a bad one |