Cycling
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07 Apr 16
18:42
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Date Joined:
11 Jul 11
**** Niki Terpstra Won this race in 2014 after attacking the principals group late and soloing away. 3rd in 2013.
This appears to have been his target for this part of the season, after winning over the cobbles and over 200+kms in very tough conditions in Le Samyn, much earlier. Was disappointing in DDV when had opportunities to make the race for himself, however it could be he came out of Paris-Nice a little flat and was missing his top-end power. Nevertheless, he has gradually shown signs of improvement since then, particularly in E3 and Wevelgem where he worked on the front with diligence and strength, and he looks absolutely primed for this after an impressive top-10 showing in Flanders, last start. Would be rated on top in (SP) timeform if not for EQS's poor management this season.
25/1 at SP with PP in 2015. Low of 10/1. High of 25/1. Presently, 20/1 (various). Fair E/W value for three places at 1/4.
The testing material. One of the main contenders. Expect to go close.
** Florian Senechal Has lived near the cobbles and knows them by heart, so perhaps it's not surprising that he won the U23 Paris-Roubaix race in 2011 by over a minute. Then made his debut in the Elite race in 2014, however he found bad luck and had mechanical problems for a 49th-place finish. 17th last year, some 30secs down when finishing with the main contenders.
Consistent results over the cobbles this season: 17th OHN, 31st KBK, 3rd Le Samyn, top-10 on GC in 3 Days of West Flanders, 25th in DDV, DNF in GW, 22nd in 3 Days of De Penne. Has been set for this by missing Flanders and working away in comfortable fashion in Scheldeprijs last start for and 81st-place finish.
200/1 with 365 at SP, and presently with Boyle. Excellent E/W value.
Solid claims. Keep safe.
* Luke Rowe Has shown excellent improvement over this circuit after debuting in the Elite race in 2013 for a 109th-place finish, before going 31st in 2014, and 8th last year. This also somewhat corresponds to the improvement he showed in the U23 Paris Roubaix races, going from 50th in 2010 to 24th in 2011, albeit nearly 4mins down on the winner.
He appears stronger for his classics season on the pave this year after being bruised by members of the race-winning breakaway (and finishing in 4th-place) when the fisticuffs started approaching the finale of OHN. Admittedly, he never went on with it after that Flemish opening weekend race, however his rides in Flanders for a 5th-place finish last Sunday and a strong training ride in Scheldeprijs last start, mark him as SKY's best candidate for a podium result.
125/1 at SP with 365 was the high, 66/1 elsewhere and various then. Has been as low as 17/1. Presently 22/1 with various. Poor value. Should be 33/1 as the lowest. E/W preferred.
Ready to find best. Worthy of very close consideration. Expect a bold showing.
1/8* Tom Boonen Holds the 'Lion of Flanders' moniker after winning this race in 2005, 2008, 2009, and 2012. Finished 2nd in 2006. Has completed the Paris-Roubaix and Tour of Flanders double in 2005 and 2012. Will have the opportunity to win this race for a record fifth time.
This season has shown a steadily improving condition in the cobbled classics, and whilst he struggled on the hellingen in the preceding races the absence of any climbing will prove to his advantage as he looks to engage characteristics which have been on good display when he has been on the front of the EQS train in recent races over flat ground, working solidly and testing his legs.
18/1 with PP at SP in 2015. 28/1 was the high, recently with 365. Presently 25/1 with various. Poor value. Should be 50/1 at the lowest, 66/1 at the highest. WIN ONLY.
Will require luck in-running and things to go his way, but he does have the experience and power to join the race-winning selection and be in it for a long way. Warrants some respect. One for the multiples. Take on trust.
1/16* Scott Thwaites 26yo rider from GBR who is riding for PCT BOA in his second season, and who appears to have the tough-as-nails characteristics required to handle this way-of-going. Only has the one start over this circuit when 69th last year, however he is right up to this after a highly consistent classics season over the cobbles, going: 16th OHN, 10th KBK, 2nd Le Samyn, 8th DDV, 35th E3, DNF 3 Days of De Penne, 20th Flanders, and a training ride in Scheldeprijs for a 79th-place finish, last start.
250/1 with various. Some E/W value.
Place claims best. Take on trust.
---
Good luck to all,
SP
This appears to have been his target for this part of the season, after winning over the cobbles and over 200+kms in very tough conditions in Le Samyn, much earlier. Was disappointing in DDV when had opportunities to make the race for himself, however it could be he came out of Paris-Nice a little flat and was missing his top-end power. Nevertheless, he has gradually shown signs of improvement since then, particularly in E3 and Wevelgem where he worked on the front with diligence and strength, and he looks absolutely primed for this after an impressive top-10 showing in Flanders, last start. Would be rated on top in (SP) timeform if not for EQS's poor management this season.
25/1 at SP with PP in 2015. Low of 10/1. High of 25/1. Presently, 20/1 (various). Fair E/W value for three places at 1/4.
The testing material. One of the main contenders. Expect to go close.
** Florian Senechal Has lived near the cobbles and knows them by heart, so perhaps it's not surprising that he won the U23 Paris-Roubaix race in 2011 by over a minute. Then made his debut in the Elite race in 2014, however he found bad luck and had mechanical problems for a 49th-place finish. 17th last year, some 30secs down when finishing with the main contenders.
Consistent results over the cobbles this season: 17th OHN, 31st KBK, 3rd Le Samyn, top-10 on GC in 3 Days of West Flanders, 25th in DDV, DNF in GW, 22nd in 3 Days of De Penne. Has been set for this by missing Flanders and working away in comfortable fashion in Scheldeprijs last start for and 81st-place finish.
200/1 with 365 at SP, and presently with Boyle. Excellent E/W value.
Solid claims. Keep safe.
* Luke Rowe Has shown excellent improvement over this circuit after debuting in the Elite race in 2013 for a 109th-place finish, before going 31st in 2014, and 8th last year. This also somewhat corresponds to the improvement he showed in the U23 Paris Roubaix races, going from 50th in 2010 to 24th in 2011, albeit nearly 4mins down on the winner.
He appears stronger for his classics season on the pave this year after being bruised by members of the race-winning breakaway (and finishing in 4th-place) when the fisticuffs started approaching the finale of OHN. Admittedly, he never went on with it after that Flemish opening weekend race, however his rides in Flanders for a 5th-place finish last Sunday and a strong training ride in Scheldeprijs last start, mark him as SKY's best candidate for a podium result.
125/1 at SP with 365 was the high, 66/1 elsewhere and various then. Has been as low as 17/1. Presently 22/1 with various. Poor value. Should be 33/1 as the lowest. E/W preferred.
Ready to find best. Worthy of very close consideration. Expect a bold showing.
1/8* Tom Boonen Holds the 'Lion of Flanders' moniker after winning this race in 2005, 2008, 2009, and 2012. Finished 2nd in 2006. Has completed the Paris-Roubaix and Tour of Flanders double in 2005 and 2012. Will have the opportunity to win this race for a record fifth time.
This season has shown a steadily improving condition in the cobbled classics, and whilst he struggled on the hellingen in the preceding races the absence of any climbing will prove to his advantage as he looks to engage characteristics which have been on good display when he has been on the front of the EQS train in recent races over flat ground, working solidly and testing his legs.
18/1 with PP at SP in 2015. 28/1 was the high, recently with 365. Presently 25/1 with various. Poor value. Should be 50/1 at the lowest, 66/1 at the highest. WIN ONLY.
Will require luck in-running and things to go his way, but he does have the experience and power to join the race-winning selection and be in it for a long way. Warrants some respect. One for the multiples. Take on trust.
1/16* Scott Thwaites 26yo rider from GBR who is riding for PCT BOA in his second season, and who appears to have the tough-as-nails characteristics required to handle this way-of-going. Only has the one start over this circuit when 69th last year, however he is right up to this after a highly consistent classics season over the cobbles, going: 16th OHN, 10th KBK, 2nd Le Samyn, 8th DDV, 35th E3, DNF 3 Days of De Penne, 20th Flanders, and a training ride in Scheldeprijs for a 79th-place finish, last start.
250/1 with various. Some E/W value.
Place claims best. Take on trust.
---
Good luck to all,
SP
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Replies: 12
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Terpstra for me as well
Should be a great race |
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Wanted to add Jasper Stuyven, after remembering his impressive KBK win from earlier, and he backed-up well his 2009 U23 WC win by winning U23 Paris-Roubaix race in 2010, however it's all hands on deck for Spartacus and unless he can find himself in the race-winning break it's unlikely he'll have the strength to win after working for Spartacus. Will look for him IR, but it's unlikely at this point.
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Watching this out while sinking the red wine in the sun, should be pretty squiffy by the final cobbles! Have lots of non-cycling fans with me looking on in disbelief. Just a quick post to say I've taken Stannard, Oss & Keukelaire.
Good luck all with the bets and hope it's a corker! |
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uh no. I like Terpstra, Boonen and Rowe as well. Hope your right for once sp.
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Conditions are good. Up to the riders to make it a selective race now.
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Strong break.
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Nugget -- the results in each thread do not lie:
MSR: 2nd. E3: 1st. GW: 4th. Flanders: 3rd. Pretty decent strike-rate for the classics, especially taking into four places, which admittedly I haven't used. |
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Etixx and Tony Martin splitting the bunch.
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Hayman easy
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Terpstra crash, Luke Rowe crash, and W/O on Boonen when 2nd.
 Nice win for Australia, though.  Really top race, thoroughly enjoyable. |
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Love a Matty Hayman win, he didn't know whether to celebrate or disbelieve it happened.
All those Contador fans celebrating the Pais Vasco, this is what a real champion with hard work looks like. Absolutely over the moon for him, that's made his career, a true warrior used as a domestique. |
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You're absolutely correct CJ, Hayman is the poster-boy for what a domestique should look like. So many times he could have ridden for himself and done well, but he was always in it for others.
Hard work indeed, after coming back from injury he got on the home-trainer for a 3/hrs aday for a month, and had only been on the road for 2 weeks in Spain prior, from what I've been told. Missed him on the short list, I'll admit. Only reason I didn't hammer his price IR was because he lost contact with the main breakaway group, but that only happened because Stannard bumped him out and he lost his rhythm and then lost contact, it wasn't because he was suffering or that he crashed. It was an issue of rhythm, and if he stayed in that race-winning group I would have gone for his price (he was 16/1 at that point on the exchange just prior to losing contact briefly) simple because like such genuine domestiques they've hardened-up in the service of other riders, and I suspected he would be tough to beat after the others, particularly Vanmarcke, Boonen and Stannard had put in big work and considerable attacks in relation to the latter. In the first interview after crossing the line, Hayman stated that he got lucky, which is totally wrong, he wasn't lucky, he is what a real champion looks like. |