Cycling
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01 Apr 16
13:15
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11 Jul 11
***** Sep Vanmarcke Best result over this course was a 3rd in 2014. Was giving every indication he would be highly competitive last year after a 5th and then a 6th in the preceding two lead-in races of E3 and Wevelgem, and was in fact going in as a strong pre-race fancy sans Cancellara, however he missed the main selection and then failed to bridge across, finishing in 53rd-place and some 3mins down for a disappointing outing.
This season he is showing signs of a mature and smart approach to his racing not readily observed previously, especially recently. Finishing with the main chase group in E3 for 8th was not a complete failure, however he then backed-up like a completely different rider in Wevelgem: Firstly, he was eating during the race at nearly every opportunity. Secondly, he worked hard at the head of the second part of the peloton to rejoin with the first part. Then at 40kms to-go he laid down a stinging attack coming along the outside of the head of the peloton when on the Baneberg, easily opening a nice gap and animating the chasers for a few kms thereafter. Then, he easily matched Spartacus on the lower part of the steep Kemmelberg ascent with 34kms to-go, before losing only a few metres to him near the top as Sagan made the race-winning selection. However, unlike GVA, who was recovering from illness and was the fourth rider over the top from the peloton, Sep made contact with Spartacus and Sagan on the leg-crunching, lung-crushing descent, and then proceeded to combine with them to drive the break into a nice gap and ultimately into a 2nd-place finish for himself, announcing himself as one to watch in Flanders.
Appears to be looking for the extra distance. Proven over the hellingen. Big engine.
Opened at 14/1, now into 13/1. E/W.
Coming into this at the right time. Special.
*** Michal Kwiatkowski Only has the two starts over this course for a best 40th-place finish in 2013, and a DNF in 2011. Nevertheless, he showed he was always suited to this way-of-going when tipped on this forum to land some nice bets after winning E3, last start. Rested since then and will be SKY's principal here without making overt demands on the team.
Has all the qualities for another strong performance over the cobbles of Flanders.
Opened 10/1 and has drifted out to 15/1 with PP, with 13/1 widely available. Good E/W value.
Exciting proposition. Very strong claims. Keep safe.
* G 8th here in 2014 was his best result. Last year, he showed his waning condition (14th-place finish) for the spring classics season after coming in on the back of a win in E3 followed by a podium in Wevelgem.
Set on a stage racing plan with SKY at the start of this season, and claimed early dividends whilst displaying great improvement, firstly by taking the win on GC in the Algarve, and then doubling-up by winning in Paris-Nice against top-class company. Was largely missing in MSR prior to his crash on the Cipressa and expending huge amounts of energy to rejoin, which cost him.
Returns to racing here after pulling out of Catalunya prior to stage 5 as he wasn't in good condition and required extra time to prepare for his start here. Looks right up to this on previous form and will have relished the short spell as he responds well to racing fresh. SKY tactics will be key to his chances, however it would appear he will be part of a multifaceted approach with teammate and E3 winner Michal Kwiatkowski.
Opened 33/1, and has found good support, now into 23/1. WIN ONLY.
Honest type. Treat warily.
* Tiesj Benoot Made the podium in the U23 Flanders race as a 20yo in 2014, which set him on a path to trainee status with LTS. Finished 5th here last year over the Elite course, albeit some 36secs behind.
Beat-up by GVA and Sagan in OHN when finishing 3rd, however he did land a punch against exciting SKY rider Luke Rowe, who is not only older but much more experienced. Next, he showed his inexperience to follow into the EQS trap when Trentin attacked on the Monteberg in Wevelgem, with a whopping 67kms to-go (which formed a five man break) where he became fully committed once involved. Then, once back in the peloton, he came to the front with Terpstra at 20kms to-go to be one of the only opponent riders to combine with the EQS train, displaying his rapidly improving characteristics at the 200+km distance, boxing on for a 15th-place finish. Nevertheless, he will require a faultless display with some luck to be involved in the finish.
Opened 28/1, now 29/1. Place claims best.
Improving type. Watch closely.
1/8* Scott Thwaites 26yo rider from GBR who is riding for PCT BOA in his second season, and who appears to be a tough customer over this way-of-going, and looks better than his 64th-place finish here last year, and 78th in 2014.
So far this season has gone: 16th OHN. 10th KBK. 2nd Le Samyn. 8th DDV. 35th E3. Last start, in order to prepare for this he rode DDP, not starting in the ITT.
Opened 250/1. Now 300/1 with PP. 4 places, best.
Can give a good account of himself. One for the multiples. Take on trust.
--- --- ---
Good luck to all,
SP
This season he is showing signs of a mature and smart approach to his racing not readily observed previously, especially recently. Finishing with the main chase group in E3 for 8th was not a complete failure, however he then backed-up like a completely different rider in Wevelgem: Firstly, he was eating during the race at nearly every opportunity. Secondly, he worked hard at the head of the second part of the peloton to rejoin with the first part. Then at 40kms to-go he laid down a stinging attack coming along the outside of the head of the peloton when on the Baneberg, easily opening a nice gap and animating the chasers for a few kms thereafter. Then, he easily matched Spartacus on the lower part of the steep Kemmelberg ascent with 34kms to-go, before losing only a few metres to him near the top as Sagan made the race-winning selection. However, unlike GVA, who was recovering from illness and was the fourth rider over the top from the peloton, Sep made contact with Spartacus and Sagan on the leg-crunching, lung-crushing descent, and then proceeded to combine with them to drive the break into a nice gap and ultimately into a 2nd-place finish for himself, announcing himself as one to watch in Flanders.
Appears to be looking for the extra distance. Proven over the hellingen. Big engine.
Opened at 14/1, now into 13/1. E/W.
Coming into this at the right time. Special.
*** Michal Kwiatkowski Only has the two starts over this course for a best 40th-place finish in 2013, and a DNF in 2011. Nevertheless, he showed he was always suited to this way-of-going when tipped on this forum to land some nice bets after winning E3, last start. Rested since then and will be SKY's principal here without making overt demands on the team.
Has all the qualities for another strong performance over the cobbles of Flanders.
Opened 10/1 and has drifted out to 15/1 with PP, with 13/1 widely available. Good E/W value.
Exciting proposition. Very strong claims. Keep safe.
* G 8th here in 2014 was his best result. Last year, he showed his waning condition (14th-place finish) for the spring classics season after coming in on the back of a win in E3 followed by a podium in Wevelgem.
Set on a stage racing plan with SKY at the start of this season, and claimed early dividends whilst displaying great improvement, firstly by taking the win on GC in the Algarve, and then doubling-up by winning in Paris-Nice against top-class company. Was largely missing in MSR prior to his crash on the Cipressa and expending huge amounts of energy to rejoin, which cost him.
Returns to racing here after pulling out of Catalunya prior to stage 5 as he wasn't in good condition and required extra time to prepare for his start here. Looks right up to this on previous form and will have relished the short spell as he responds well to racing fresh. SKY tactics will be key to his chances, however it would appear he will be part of a multifaceted approach with teammate and E3 winner Michal Kwiatkowski.
Opened 33/1, and has found good support, now into 23/1. WIN ONLY.
Honest type. Treat warily.
* Tiesj Benoot Made the podium in the U23 Flanders race as a 20yo in 2014, which set him on a path to trainee status with LTS. Finished 5th here last year over the Elite course, albeit some 36secs behind.
Beat-up by GVA and Sagan in OHN when finishing 3rd, however he did land a punch against exciting SKY rider Luke Rowe, who is not only older but much more experienced. Next, he showed his inexperience to follow into the EQS trap when Trentin attacked on the Monteberg in Wevelgem, with a whopping 67kms to-go (which formed a five man break) where he became fully committed once involved. Then, once back in the peloton, he came to the front with Terpstra at 20kms to-go to be one of the only opponent riders to combine with the EQS train, displaying his rapidly improving characteristics at the 200+km distance, boxing on for a 15th-place finish. Nevertheless, he will require a faultless display with some luck to be involved in the finish.
Opened 28/1, now 29/1. Place claims best.
Improving type. Watch closely.
1/8* Scott Thwaites 26yo rider from GBR who is riding for PCT BOA in his second season, and who appears to be a tough customer over this way-of-going, and looks better than his 64th-place finish here last year, and 78th in 2014.
So far this season has gone: 16th OHN. 10th KBK. 2nd Le Samyn. 8th DDV. 35th E3. Last start, in order to prepare for this he rode DDP, not starting in the ITT.
Opened 250/1. Now 300/1 with PP. 4 places, best.
Can give a good account of himself. One for the multiples. Take on trust.
--- --- ---
Good luck to all,
SP
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Great stuff again.
It is really difficult to see past Sagan and Canc for me, they are the strongest two coming in to this but far too short for me to play them, I prefer smuggly watching as the odds shorten on my selections prerace but watching on as they fail to do anything... Sagan showed at Gent W that he can still pack a punch at the line of Classics if he does not overdo the pulling at the front, he has to race smart and leave some in the tank for later on if arriving with company, he or Canc will doubtless force a major selection and it will be interesting as ever to watch the dynamic there on, especially with regards to who (if anyone) from Etixx / Sky is at the front. He has looked real strong on the cobbled climbs so far and it is difficult to see him not being in the mix, the lack of support from his team may be his downfall though if Sky / Etixx animate things early. Cancellara has been looking assured this season, he has that air of already having so much in the bag from his career that he can almost sense the others yet to claim a Monument gaining in desperation and he can just ride his race. If he is up the road with Sagan and GVA he could work this to his favour. He should have decent support from Devolder and Stuyven deep into the race and he is rightly favourite based on his form this year and all that he has achieved. I liked the work from Vanmarcke at Gent V as well last week, the pulling he did to bring the two groups together should not be underestimated, to use a Sean Kellyism he burnt a few matches real early on and still had an impressive race. He has been a nearly man so often though that I cannot bring myself to back him at his current odds even though his form seems to be coming good, if he were to win though I'd be happy for him. It is so difficult to call from anyone in the betting around 12/1, GVA, Kristoff et all. I backed G a good few weeks ago and am slightly concerned that he is coming in to this off of being a wee bit sick but hopeful of a good result at the odds. He has been on my radar for Flanders since putting in a power of work for Flecha 5 years back, his leaning to multi stage tours is a bit concerning but I feel he will be in the mix to win either here or at Roubaix in the next few years and whilst his odds are decent I will support him in that, though it is a wee bit more in hope than expectation till he backs up some good results in the other Classics. He along with Kwia will lead Sky here and I expect the team to play a part in the race with Rowe and Stannard there to aide. Etixx are interesting in from a betting perspective that their shortest priced rider is 20/1... be interesting to see if they can make the selection and who they will support. Stybar looks a bit out of form and things will need to fall right for Terpstra to win, Boonen looks in okay form but sadly not what he was. I've been on Lars Boom for a few weeks, he will favour next week but I thought he showed well at the E3, at Gent W he missed the boat in the second peloton then punctured so we never got to see his real form. Worth a chance for me at the odds. So I only have bets on Boom, G and Thwaites as well ( He is a real strong man and at the odds worth a bet, great to see his rise from Endura) I am hoping for good showings from Trentin, Rowe and Boom with regards next Sunday where I have more of a betting interest. Planning to just enjoy this with a few beers and enjoy the drama. |
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Cheers federalski -- really good to get your thoughts mate. I know you like a smokey so anticipated that Thwaites would be a good fit for you. Bloody good price for such a tough-as-nails rider, although will require luck.
Anyway, I actually checked my review of SB after the Wevelgem race which Sagan won, and realised I was heading in that direction way back then, but just thought Spartacus would be hungrier, smarter and more experienced. As it turns out his legs failed him badly to not even pick a podium place, and not going 4 places it did inflict no small amount of frustration on me. The thing with Spartacus (in Wevelgem) which was worrying though, not even comparing him to Vanmarcke who -- I note -- we both agree did the most work of those breakaway big three throughout the day, was that he sat down for the sprint, a seated sprint if you will, and whilst that is something which we have seen him do before, he has usually done it in the third week of a GT. So, I am willing to think that whilst Sparatcus will most likely be involved in proceedings when it matters, he may have lost his edge a little coming into this, and may therefore repeat a similar tired sprint if it comes down to such a repeat scenario as we saw in Wevelgem. For me, I can only entertain Spartacus as a trading option, I don't think he can win for a straight-out wager, not with the added "nervous energy" factor of lining up in arguably the biggest last race of his career. I'm actually discounting his chances of winning, but not entertaining a lay at this point. There seem to be a lot more attacks in Flanders and more indecision by riders whether to commit 100% to a move. So the race gets this ebb and flow dynamic until a top group forms. I therefore think EQS have a much lesser role on Sunday as a team, and will likely have a rider/s in several groups on the road. I mean, it's all out in Flanders, there can be no "holding the line" scenario, where you have 2x2 or 4x4 and the rest of the peloton being dictated to by one team. So I definitely envisage EQS playing their dominant role, but perhaps being even more dominant by throwing riders into all the breaks all day, and therefore not necessarily animating things as I'm not sure they want a hard ride to the race. A "soft" race plays into Sagan's hands, and definitely he is a major danger, however whilst he is deservedly short, I agree he is too short to back. I guess I'm taking the converse approach to you about the same issue, and so if Sagan gets a soft ride he becomes a very good thing to win. Cannot discount his chances whatsoever at ante-post. Kristoff may come good, sometimes a rider just has good legs and you cannot really predict that, but I watched him closely in DDP and he looked really poor to me, both in the breakaway with the two AST riders and in the ITT where he could have won the race on GC with a decent performance -- so it's actually very easy for me to discount his chances entirely, especially since he is suited to Roubaix much more, and is therefore eyeing next Sunday already. Disagree with you on Stybar. He is my pick of the EQS riders on paper. I think he has been showing good consistent form this season and doing everything EQS ask of him, which has strengthened him, however the deep hierarchy in the team suggests that -- even though he is arguably the best rider in the team at this part of the season -- he will only get his chance to ride for himself by getting into the race-winning selection as EQS's sole representative, which is highly unlikely. Boonen has been testing himself in the last two rides, he came to the front approaching the finale and claimed some 10secs for the chasers on Kwiatkowski/Sagan breakaway in E3, and was on the front also in Wevelgem, although admittedly he had absolutely nothing on the Kemmelberg, and what with the difficulty of this race, I too think he is a spent force, sadly. Terpstra is coming good for Roubaix, I think, it actually looks it might be coming together for him for next Sunday, so am not expecting much from him this Sunday, and indeed am hoping for a hard training ride under competition. Cheers, SP |
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I've done something I never thought I'd do. I've backed van Avermaet at 11 e/w. He seems to have turned a corner this season and has moved out of the Sagan spot of always second. He's always excellent here and the crowd will be all over him at 11's it works for me.
I've gone Belgian again for my second rider, Jurgen Roelandts at 41 e/w. Showed good form early season and managed to get a podium in MSR. Always a threat in this race and I fancy he will be Lotto's main man here rather than the impressive young Benoot. Too big at 41 for my liking. Lastly I've gone for Luke Rowe, was all over 3DP until he punctured and has looked good in most of the races he's entered so far. My only worry with so many possible leaders in the SKY team he might be restricted to working for others. At 51 I'm willing to take that risk. I so want to back Langeveld as well, but he's shown absolutely no form this season and was dire last year. Possibly never likely to hit the same heights again in his career. Can I back him on historic performances at 150's? Probably not, will see what he looks like in running and might add him. Good luck all. |
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I still can't get friend with the Ronde without going up the Muir
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I doubt anyone is good enough to overpower the rest. I would expect the strongest to cancel each other out and the warm weather is likely to make the race easier than usual with a big peloton coming to Oude Kwaremont.
Demare could definitely be in play even if he might be more focused on next week but I think this race suits him better. Can't resist Pozzato either - he won't ride next week so his whole year is here. Finally Stybar is a bit hit and miss (miss last weekend) but I feel he will win this race at some point. This time last year he was one of the favourites having finished 2nd at Harelbeke but disappointed only to bounce back with a big ride in P-R Bets: Stybar 22-1, Demare 66-1, Pozzato 100-1 |
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Looking forward to this
Cancellara for me |
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Canc vs Sagan vs GVA vs Sky
GVA 10's Thomas 26 Kwiatkowski 16 Should be good, lots of in-form riders. |
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Sporza stream live.
Eurosport live in 20. Conditions look perfect for cycling, so we should have an easier race today. Break is Van Hoeck, Houle, Irviti, Kreder, Postlberger and Zurlo. De Haes chasing. Frites are ready to go and the beer shall start at the stroke of 12. I'm in for the day! |
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BMC
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CJ, what selection have you gone with? Belgian Trappist?
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Vest?
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Puttting on his wife-beatter vest to drink the wife-beater.
The race is shaping up nicely, should be exciting. Shame for those who have had to pull out but that's the nature of this sort of racing. Would have liked to have seen GVA win this. |
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wife-beater?
Yes, shaping up nicely. Benoot out from my picks. Really sad for GVA though. Vanmarcke involved in the crash, but still in the race. Kwiatkowski sticking to Sagan like his WC mate. Looks like Stybar is the man for EQS. |
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Btw, esteemed tipster and thread author on this for forum Marychain is still experiencing posting troubles, but have been informed he has backed the following riders at ante-post:
Cancellara 11/2 win Stannard 50/1ew Vanmarcke 16/1ew Stybar 20/1 |
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Wifebeater is a vest and the name of Stella.
This is almost as confusing as the situation on the road... God knows what's happening  |
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Cheers mate, never heard the term in Aussie.
Pretty clear now, both on the road and rest. |
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Boom cooked after puncture at top of the Taaienberg.
Sep looking good to me. |
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Sagan winning it in style
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Sagan with the wheelie
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Kwiatkowski returning the favour to Sagan from E3. Got the gap and was able to hold it to the finish.
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Double anyone?
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That was really exciting from almost the start of the televised coverage till the end.
Groups everywhere and we missed a few splits but that almost added to the occasion. I thought Sagan was pulling too much most of the way from the small group to when he was alone with Sep, but he knew what he was doing, so strong. Real shame some talents look to have picked up some nasty injuries and have to miss out on this week of racing, must be heartbreaking, Benoot has lots of years to come but time is running out for GVA. |
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Smart from Sagan, with no BMC in the race he knew he would have a better chance of keeping the chasers at bay.
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When Kwiatkowski attacked and Sagan followed it looked like Kwiatkowski was on very good sensations, but Sagan wasn't convinced by the move and didn't really come through to pull with any equal measure, certainly not until Vanmarcke bridged across, so I certainly think that indecision was a benefit for him, he had a lot in the tank on top of being in very good shape, but he didn't really need that much as the tailwind brought him home under sails. Thrilling stuff. Happy for Vanmarcke, stuck on for third. Kwiatkowski was stung by the distance, he'll learn a lot from that. Spartacus looked good but even if all three came to the line I think Sagan would've had it over him.
I've said it before, but at this Monument-level, over this circuit, this is yet again another example of very very subtle race. Pity it's only once a year, really difficult to boil-it-down into its essence. So much more than a race, but so subtle, and for the WC to win like that, really was a privilege to witness. Cheers, SP |
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Kwiatkowski initiated and contributed to the winning move. He just didn't have it and was no match for Sagan. Distance isn't a problem for Kwiatkowski, tbh I think he's better suited to the "Ardennes Classics."
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Big tactical error from Cancellara I thought
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